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Well, rolling a top tier influence is probably about the same difficulty (or harder!) than outright defusing the meltdown, or at least delaying the meltdown, so yes it is a bet worth making?
1) Influences expire at the end of the turn, so they don't matter.
2) we already have 1 MitM, the comparative advantage is less than having 0
3) not losing is of great benefit to our plans and winning (Befriending the Forge Name is likely going to be uniquely relevant in the Mansus), so we...
So in preparation we now have:
1x scrying, 1x expedition of unknown difficulty which needs people to go on them, 1x aotl (yes, those are resources too), 1x action for influence, 1x book reading for up to 2 Lore Scraps, and finally we risk 1x ritual if something goes wrong.
Or we could just use...
Well, that would mean one less Name during All-In for most realistic scenarios, no?
And what I fear is Biedde combining all our enemies together into one force (get an in into Eclipse, help them out and show Velvet as a traitor through the Brand, then poke Neighnia to assist in getting rid of...
QM already mentioned that Smiles is not the logical type that would use these resources like that though, when it was floated above?
Regarding 8), yeah, it could work, though I'm not sure if it would risk Celestia asking questions about where all this force came from if she was looking in the...
Here's our list of spinning plates:
1) Random Occultists finding Ash or other similar 'goodies' and deciding to summon them.
2) Windy and Neighnia (inactive??)
3) Sunny Doom Clock (mitigating?)
4) Eclipse getting a Brand, and then spotting us.
5) Biedde getting summoned and then attacking us...
That does make sense, I suppose. I would say that they can't really communicate to teach, but that might not actually matter in practice?
Regardless, it has always been my opinion that T25 should be our deadline regardless of whether delaying works (unknown unknowns and all that), so Moth...