ShaperV
Experienced.
- Joined
- May 17, 2013
- Messages
- 3,729
- Likes received
- 112,386
Taking a step back to look at the larger issues here, I think two of the major concerns Sophia keeps worrying about are a lot worse in her own head than in reality. Which is completely reasonable and in character, and I'm pretty sure this is intentional. But it's something for readers to keep in mind.
First, the total population and size of the Vilani Imperium is basically irrelevant. Even if they were completely unified and determined to crush Earth, the distances, communication delays and supply issues they have to deal with ensure that they could never deploy more than a miniscule fraction of their military to a single theater. But, of course, they're actually an incredibly fragmented society that's constitutionally incapable of uniting over anything. As long as Earth makes even token efforts at seeming reasonable and non-threatening they're unlikely to face anything bigger than the local sector governor's fleet, which is a much more reasonable matchup. The odds are still against them, but not impossibly so.
The other big worry is Vilani reverse-engineering. But if you look at historical examples, the time required for a big, insular empire to copy important innovations from elsewhere is typically measured in generations. The Vilani are a prime example of this, because they've systematically stamped out innovation to the point where they have more in common with Imperial China than a modern RL nation. If they wanted to copy new tech involving unfamiliar scientific principles they'd have to rediscover the entire process of how to do R&D before they could even get started. On top of that, Vilani society is a finely tuned stasis machine that can't handle much in the way of change, and is full of entrenched factions with a vested interest in maintaining the status quo. So yes, if Sophia introduces one innovation and stops the Vilani might copy it in time to be a threat to her grandchildren. But if she just keeps going, introducing more innovations that drive technology forward at a pace somewhat like RL, the Vilani can't keep up. If they try they'll simply destroy their own society, and the Imperium will fall apart into a million warring factions.
Ironically, the biggest risk I see to Earth is actually Sophia's existence. If she gets too carried away with producing new tech, and makes it look like Earth could actually be a threat to the Imperium, that might just give the local governor the leverage she needs to get some real support from her peers. That could turn into a delicate exercise in aggro management - rolling out new advances quickly raises the risk of a big Vilani response, but doing it slowly means Earth is more vulnerable if you get bad luck and the Vilani act anyway.
First, the total population and size of the Vilani Imperium is basically irrelevant. Even if they were completely unified and determined to crush Earth, the distances, communication delays and supply issues they have to deal with ensure that they could never deploy more than a miniscule fraction of their military to a single theater. But, of course, they're actually an incredibly fragmented society that's constitutionally incapable of uniting over anything. As long as Earth makes even token efforts at seeming reasonable and non-threatening they're unlikely to face anything bigger than the local sector governor's fleet, which is a much more reasonable matchup. The odds are still against them, but not impossibly so.
The other big worry is Vilani reverse-engineering. But if you look at historical examples, the time required for a big, insular empire to copy important innovations from elsewhere is typically measured in generations. The Vilani are a prime example of this, because they've systematically stamped out innovation to the point where they have more in common with Imperial China than a modern RL nation. If they wanted to copy new tech involving unfamiliar scientific principles they'd have to rediscover the entire process of how to do R&D before they could even get started. On top of that, Vilani society is a finely tuned stasis machine that can't handle much in the way of change, and is full of entrenched factions with a vested interest in maintaining the status quo. So yes, if Sophia introduces one innovation and stops the Vilani might copy it in time to be a threat to her grandchildren. But if she just keeps going, introducing more innovations that drive technology forward at a pace somewhat like RL, the Vilani can't keep up. If they try they'll simply destroy their own society, and the Imperium will fall apart into a million warring factions.
Ironically, the biggest risk I see to Earth is actually Sophia's existence. If she gets too carried away with producing new tech, and makes it look like Earth could actually be a threat to the Imperium, that might just give the local governor the leverage she needs to get some real support from her peers. That could turn into a delicate exercise in aggro management - rolling out new advances quickly raises the risk of a big Vilani response, but doing it slowly means Earth is more vulnerable if you get bad luck and the Vilani act anyway.