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A Symphony of Ice and Fire (HOTD/The Ice Dragon)

The next chapter is going to be basically politics, plots and general reactions, and then we're getting back to Daeron and Adara and we'll be diving right back into the magical stuff and actually getting into compelling stakes that aren't magical visions and a whole lot of implied threats.
All I'll be saying about Aemond is that the man needs a lot of work in the days to come.
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"Your mind is the starting point of all war and all♟️strategy. A mind 🧠 that is easily overwhelmed by emotion😡, that is rooted in the past instead of⏳the present, that cannot see the world with clarity and urgency, will create strategies that will always miss the mark." — Robert Greene, The 33 Strategies of War.
"The child who is not embraced by the village will burn it down to feel its warmth." — African Proverb
"Only those who do not seek power are qualified to hold it." — Plato
"The true soldier 🪖 fights not because he hates what is in front of him, but because he loves ❤️ what is be-hind him." — G.K. Chesterton
"The general who advances without coveting fame🏆 and retreats without fearing disgrace, whose only 💭 thought is to protect his country and do good service for his sovereign, is the jewel of the kingdom." — Sun Tzu, The Art of War.

Well, that's an understatement of the year. It actually baffles me so much how Aemond's family (both Blacks and Greens) themselves are so willfully ignorant to the fact that they are the ones who're responsible for his own trauma and warped state of mind in the first place and then got the audacity to question later why he's so monstrous and cruel when they are really the root causes of him being this way. I hope that Adara makes them all admit to this fact and own up to their follies. Metaphorically speaking, Aemond is the quiet kid at school who was disabled and bullied by the other kids, but he found his confidence in solitude, learned the art of war and combat. Then he returned to his old stomping ground to kick their ass. Adara knows those types, she's seen that face...she probably saw it in her own reflection everyday. Unlike his family, she'll come to fully understand him and perhaps, intentionally or unintentionally, motivate him to be better and not care about anyone else says or thinks anymore if they don't actually contribute to his own happiness and growth as a human being.

Of course, he's so easy to dislike, but he's actually such a nuanced character as well. Look at his life as we've seen. Constantly doubted, overlooked, and forgotten. Then, he pairs with Vhagar and feels like he belongs, finally finding a dragon, and one of the strongest at that. Then, as he said to Cole, he was the one who took his position as a successor seriously, while Aegon didn't. And he took it personally that he was never even considered by his mother or father. I believe him acting the way he does, is him lashing out for never receiving the love his siblings had. He's desperate to prove his worth when he already has. But few to none acknowledge it and I think that makes him internally angry. He wants validation and has never gotten it, so he chooses to rule from fear rather than gaining respect from his steadfastness and intellect. Because he lives in Westeros which has always been a feudal and martial society. Since, the lords and knights, particularly those living in the South, tend to care more about martial glory and battle rather than chill and appreciate more intellectual pursuits such as wonders of science, nature, technological uplifts and stuff like "counting coppers." In short, a bunch of overly proud, ambitious and shortsighted fools who lack vision. Sadly, none of the Targs (except Rhaenys, Helaena and the children who are too young such as Jaehaerys, Jaehaera, Maelor, Aegon III and Viserys II) are actually exempt from having any of these flaws either.

Which is another major reason why Adara has been thrust into the role of being commander-in-chief for House Targaryen and the realm as a whole. Since, a good general does not rush into battle just to gain recognition or praise. They do not make decisions based on emotions or fear of repercussions, even if it means making difficult choices. Their primary concern is the safety and welfare of the people they lead; making them a valuable asset to the army or nation. Because essentially, a good leader puts the people's interests and needs above their own reputation or self-preservation. Which's what Adara had more or less done in the past and as a reward for all her selfless acts; she was betrayed in the end by her own people. And that's why she still so reluctant to deal with human beings anymore and why she wants to make sure whether or not the Others are an enemy that she and her best friend Frostsinger can't simply deal with by themselves. Since, she doesn't trust anybody anymore and therefore refuses to basically rely on the prophetic words of the Three-Eyed Raven. Because information can easily be the difference between victory and defeat, or war and peace. Knowledge gives one the power to persuade opponents to compromise or to lead them into making mistakes. The phrase 'knowledge is power' is often spoken since it emphasizes the importance of information in gaining power and victory over one's opponents. However, without understanding how to utilize this knowledge effectively, its potential remains untapped. So, knowledge combined with both intelligence and decisive action is what makes it truly powerful. Hence, Adara wants to confirm the veracity of the Raven's claims and to personally gather intelligence on the enemy in order to make correctly informed decisions and think over on how to develop the right plan of attack afterwards before calling the shots.

Unlike Aemond, Adara doesn't have second son syndrome or has some sort of inferiority/superiority complex (and if she ever did then she doesn't have it anymore at this point) that she wastes brainpower angsting over. She's able to recognize her own power and doesn't underestimate her own capacity for harm as Frostsinger's rider. While Aemond doesn't seem to realize nor care how much harm he can potentially cause with Vhagar altogether. I think this is the exact point Viserys was trying to make when he told Rhaenyra that dragons are a power men should never have trifled with. He rode Balerion which I'd imagine was a similar experience to claiming Vhagar. We don't know exactly the nature of the bond but you have to think they feel each other's feelings and experiences to some extent (remember when Caraxes reared his head back and screamed in pain when Daemon got hit by that arrow) Balerion and Vhagar are veterans of 100 battles and have killed thousands upon thousands of people. We can only imagine what that would feel like to the rider. The interesting difference between Viserys I and Aemond is that Viserys seems to have recoiled from what he experienced when he bonded with Balerion and Aemond has embraced it. I'm definitely stoked for any future information we can learn about bonding and dragons in general. When the next volume of GRRM's Fire & Blood is finally released. On a side note, I find it hypocritical and stupid of the Blacks to say that Aemond had no 'right' to Vhagar because of who her previous rider was. Even if that were true, (power always goes to those willing to take it, fire is power, and dragons are fire made flesh, dragons are power made flesh) it was not Rhaenyra's children's place to enforce it. Also, if dragons were living heirlooms then Daemon would be riding his mother's dragon Meleys and Rhaenys would be riding her father's mount Caraxes.

Concerning the Driftmark incident. For me, it's difficult to assign blame to either party. Rhaena pushed Aemond because he claimed her mother's dragon, brung up her dead mom and insulted her. Baela punched Aemond because she sees her sister getting smacked around by a bigger boy. Jace jumps in because he sees two girls being punched by an older boy and Luke follows because he sees his brother getting beaten up. Meanwhile, Aemond is being ganged up on by four kids all at once. Aemond grabs a rock for defense but he also tells a six-year- old boy he's going to kill him by fire while holding said six-year-old in a chokehold, after breaking the six-year-old's nose, so I can't exactly fault Jace for bringing out a dagger to defend his brother, just like I can't fault Aemond for defending himself. I also can't fault Luke for using a knife when he sees Aemond standing over Jace holding a rock, especially considering the fact that Aemond has said that he's going to kill them. It's tragic to me because I feel like all the children are acting purely on instinct that's been shaped by their parent's obvious hatred towards each other. I mean, all Aemond's ever heard about Jace and Luke is that they're bastard abominations who are stealing his family's birthright. Neither side is blameless, which is of course the theme of the entire story. But what I don't understand is why people are so intent on blaming any of the children. The adults are the ones at fault for the whole thing. Period. All those Velaryon and Targaryen household guards and all goddamn seven knights of the Kingsguard were present yet not one of them knew where any of these five children were. For real, how did they lose an entire fucking herd of royal blooded children? Also, nobody heard the commotion first with Vhagar then with a bunch of kids screaming at each other in an echoey ass cave? How did nobody notice five kids running around unattended? And Aemond entering the castle without a single person stopping him? That's bullshit. Their parents...when you teach your children to hate they're gonna hate. If it hadn't been this incident it would have been something else at some other time—violence between these children was inevitable. The way the so-called adults handled things was completely unreasonable. Yes, all of them. Rhaenyra's manipulation, Alicent's violence (her anger was warranted, the stabbing was not), Viserys' favoritism, Daemon's flippancy, Cole's negligent deflection of his duty, and Corlys standing there like an NPC in his own castle. They all acted like dumbasses so, of course, nothing was resolved. This is one of the reasons why the tale of Fire & Blood and House of Dragon highlights really well that no side commands a moral high ground in war and that history is written by the victors.

Anyway, Aemond, whether he realizes it or not, has now found a new role model (or rival depending on his perspective) whom he doesn't seek to kill and couldn't even if he wanted to or tried (because it's obvious that Aemond somehow idolizes Daemon but never wanted to be his uncle per se. People say that Aemond wants to be like Daemon, but I think that Aemond wants to be BETTER than Daemon. Aemond wanted Daemon to see him as an equal and a potential threat, because then, it would prove that Daemon approved and respected him as a warrior. Before he finally killed and surpassed him. After all, to become a legend, you have to slay a legend. At least, that's the impression I had when I saw their initially one-sided rivalry at the start of Season 2 of the series. Aemond wanted the glory of killing the Rogue Prince, he wanted to be the one to kill Daemon Targaryen (considered by many to be the most dangerous man in all of Westeros). To become the most dangerous man in Westeros you need to win the title by killing the most dangerous man in Westeros, Aemond needed to kill Daemon to win that title but had ultimately failed in the canon). Even though, she's a few years younger than him. And in the near future, she'll possibly act and be like the mature, intelligent and responsible sibling who he always needed to keep his head straight or properly bond with in terms of martial and intellectual pursuits. A role which Rhaenyra and Aegon II had failed and never cared to fulfill throughout his entire life. Since, she'll make it totally clear to everybody that she won't ever conform nor bend to the rules, customs, traditions and norms of their backwards society where it's taught that girls are solely good for giving birth, looking pretty and not learn how to defend or think for themselves while men are the only ones who should fight, lead armies or rule. And anyone who's foolish enough to think that they can threaten, manipulate and indoctrinate her into such a dull and rigid system or attempt to demand her obeisance (like Daemon and Otto) will severely suffer the consequences. Thus, she's actually more of a rebel than Daemon himself is or could ever dare to be in this regard. In more ways than one, she is now the most dangerous and unpredictable person in Westeros, with or without her ice dragon, not the Rogue Prince. And everyone in the Seven Kingdoms will come to know this fact soon.
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Reactions in King's Landing to Aemond's warnings about Adara are anticipated to be dismissive, with Aegon (totally agree with TheEmpyreanSpeaks in one of his latest videos. Aegon II is the best character of House of the Dragon: Season 2. Because of Tom Glynn-Carney who is such an amazing actor since he made his character so sympathetic and compelling in such a tragic way. In the show, Aegon's inability to do some things makes him very human. I also don't get the sense that he is outright stupid, he comes off as someone lazy. He isn't better at certain activities because he doesn't have drive and discipline, not because he is inherently incapable. I think starting him off as this non-threatening person who everyone perceives as weak, who is then forced by circumstances to become more ruthless and strategic makes for a better story. In the book, he was mostly an irresponsible hedonist before the coronation and the Dance forced him to change very fast. When I was reading it, I didn't expect much from him after Rook's Rest and he proved me wrong. But my expectations were low after Rook's Rest not because I thought he was weak or that people thought he was weak. I just imagined all the trauma and injuries he suffered would crush him. I found his storyline in the book very impressive and that's how he became one of my favorite characters. The actor Tom says he hopes Aegon will be more cold and calculating from this point on (in Season 3 and beyond). He will try to portray the character in this way as best he can, and he might mention it because he will have a say in some parts of the writing of his character, but we'll see what the incompetent writers decide. I too would love to see a cold, calculating, ruthless and vengeful Aegon because that's the Aegon in the book, especially after his scars. In Season 3, I think him and Aemond may switch places and people will be surprised Aemond will become more mad and reckless and less calculative as we saw so far and Aegon who everyone underestimated; we'll see that he is actually a dangerous person and not stupid at all as everyone thought. He'll no longer seek love since he was betrayed too many times now. He will be on the real path to revenge soon just like his book counterpart. Both brothers weren't born monsters. They became tragic villains due to being molded in the worst way possible because of their stupid and dysfunctional family as well as the decadent society that they were born into. Anyway, I like to think of Book Aegon II as the sibling most similar to Viserys. Had he lived in peace like Viserys did, he would have grown up to be like his father, but the war shaped him into an angrier, harder form. In your story, I hope that Aegon II will eventually aspire to be the opposite of his petty, spineless, spiteful, negligent and stupid manchild of a father, Firewillreign.) likely to laugh it off until he sees the words of the prophecy lit from a fire upon his father's dagger. Alicent and Otto may patronize Aemond due to the fact that Vhagar has long held the heavyweight title of being the world's largest dragon. Criston Cole and Helaena might be the only ones to take Aemond seriously. Rhaenyra at Dragonstone might consider her son's words more seriously after hearing him say that a girl who rides a dragon bigger than Vhagar saved him, but her initial skepticism about Adara's warnings may persist until Luke mentions the Song of Ice and Fire. I doubt Daemon will believe the warnings, and Jace may trust his brother's words. But I don't think he or anyone else will fully believe them unless they see both Adara and Frostsinger for themselves.
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"When in 1806 the Prussian generals...plunged into the open jaws🦈 of disaster by using Frederick 👑 the Great's oblique order of battle, it was not just a case of a style that had outlived its usefulness but the most extreme poverty of the imagination 💭 to which routine has ever led. The result was that the Prussian army under Hohenlohe was ruined more completely than any army has ever been ruined on the battlefield." — Carl von Clausewitz, On War.
"What limits individuals as well as nations 🏰 is the in-ability to confront reality, to see🔎things for what they are. As we grow older, we become more rooted in the past. Habit takes over. Something that has worked for us before becomes a doctrine, a shell🐚to protect us from reality." - Robert Greene, The 33 Strategies♟️of War.
"Repetition replaces creativity. We rarely realize we are doing this, because it is almost impossible for us to🔎 see it happening in our own minds 🧠 . Then suddenly a young Napoleon 🐉 crosses our path, a person who does not respect tradition, who fights♟️in a new way. Only then do we see that our ways of thinking 💭 and responding have fallen behind the times ⌛️." - Robert Greene, The 33 Strategies of War.
"Never take it for granted that your past successes🏆 will continue into the future. Actually, your past successes are your biggest obstacle: every battle, every war, is different, and you cannot assume that what worked before will work today. You must cut yourself loose from the past and open your eyes to the present. Your tendency to fight the last war⚔️ may lead to your final war☠️." - Robert Greene, The 33 Strategies of War.
"The greatest military🪖disasters in history have more often than not originated from leaders 👑 who lack♟️ strategic wisdom." — Robert Greene
"No battle can be won in the study, and theory without practice is dead." — Alexander Suvorov
"The knowledge📚of higher leadership🪖can only be acquired by the study of military history 📖 and actual experience." — Napoleon Bonaparte
"I never read any treatises on strategy ♟️....When we fight, we do not take any books with us." — Mao Tse-Tung

P.S. In the near future, Aemond and the rest of the teenage dragonlords will also likely be a bit jealous and envious of Adara at first. When they learn that Winterchild was practically a child soldier who had her fair share of battles in a prehistoric age rife with sword and sorcery. Then, they'll feel shocked and a bit queasy when she bluntly describes her experiences on the battlefield in explicit detail. All of them (especially the bloodthirsty ones like Aegon, Aemond and Baela) will begin to realize that war itself isn't as glorious as it's cracked up to be. Furthermore, once she assumes command and control over House Targaryen. She may introduce 'new' ideas, tactics and strategies to the already outdated and traditional styles and doctrines of Westerosi and dragon warfare during her war council meetings with the Targaryens. Like Aemond and Daeron, she possesses tactical intelligence and a keen understanding of warfare. Unlike them and the rest of the royal children, however, she also possesses strategic wisdom and battlefield experience that cannot be simply simulated and honed by just training and reading books alone.

https://powerseductionandwar.com/tactical-hell-or-strategic-heaven/#:~:text=The incompetent and stupid are,leaders who lack strategic wisdom.
https://www.quora.com/What-are-the-best-and-worst-things-about-Aemond-Targaryen
https://www.reddit.com/r/HouseOfThe.../the_loss_of_aemonds_eye_was_everyones_fault/
https://www.tumblr.com/the-daily-dr...ns-saying-aemond-was-right-losing-his-eye-was
https://collider.com/house-of-the-dragon-aemond-targaryen-beyond-fire-blood-book/
https://collider.com/house-of-the-dragon-aemond-vhagar-ewan-mitchell-comments/
https://collider.com/house-of-the-dragon-season-2-aemond-kinslayer/
https://collider.com/house-of-the-dragon-season-2-daemon-aemond-betrayal/
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=eudSWhruUNA
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=jAAvT5t0QEw&pp=ygUQYWVtb25kIHRhcmdhcnllbg==
https://m.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLUyGT3KDxwC8xD2S2Q1IqH_S_ocWwXWHv
https://m.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLsTzegJZgtyh4kNfnrSuT2BUb-iREgntm
 
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Cersei Lannister: We still outnumber them.
Robert Baratheon: Which is the bigger number: Five or one?
Cersei: Five.
Robert: [holding up his fingers] Five. [holding up a fist]One. One army - a real army united behind one leader with one purpose. Our purpose died with the Mad King. Now we've got as many armies as there are men with gold in their purse. And everybody wants something different.
Game of Thrones, "The Wolf and the Lion".
"Leaders have always found it useful to have an enemy at their gates in times of trouble, distracting the public from their difficulties. In using your enemies to rally 🗣️your troops 🪖 , polarize them as far as possible: they will fight ⚔️🔥 the more fiercely when they feel a little hatred." - Robert Greene, The 33 Strategies♟️of War.
"Be it thy course to busy giddy minds with foreign quarrels." — King Henry IV Lancaster of England, 👑 Henry IV, Part 2.
"Know who you're dealing with—do not offend the wrong person." — Robert Greene, The 48 Laws♟️of Power.

Adara and the Targaryens don't realize yet that they absolutely need each other. None of them can actually defeat this threat with their dragons alone. There are reasons why the Three-Eyed Raven, the Old Gods, and perhaps the Fourteen Flames and all the other powers that be have chosen to assign the Winterchild and Daeron the Daring this duet role of being the new prophesied savior. Besides the fact, there are no other viable options.

If the White Walkers from HBO's Game of Thrones had invaded Westeros during the Targaryen civil war known as the Dance of the Dragons, they would have ultimately lost with mid to high difficulty. The Night King is portrayed as being reckless on the battlefield, with the White Walkers lacking effective strategy beyond overwhelming the enemy with numbers. In contrast, the book version of the Others shows more strategic planning, such as coordinating attacks and using deception. In the show, the White Walkers are portrayed as weak and easily defeated, with the wights crumbling easily. However, in the books, the wights are much stronger, requiring burning or dismemberment to kill, and are immune to dragonglass. The Others in the books are heavily implied to possess giant ice spiders and at least one ice dragon, making them much more formidable opponents.

The main advantage of the Others is their ability to increase their numbers over time by converting those they kill into wights. While the show depicts around 20-30 White Walkers, the books suggest there are at least 99, with the potential for even more due to sacrifices of human babies over the years. The book Others also have a range of abilities not seen in the show, such as camouflage armor, the ability to disappear into shadows, and the power to incapacitate soldiers with extreme cold. They are experts at seeing in the dark, which could give them a significant advantage at night. They seem to be able to somehow control or affect the weather whenever they are nearby. Because there is always either this chilly mist or cold and wintry storm 🌨️ that comes with them. Therefore, opponents have no choice but to face them in total darkness when they come down and invade.

In conclusion, the book version of the Others would pose a much greater threat to Westeros than the show's White Walkers. With their strategic planning, powerful abilities, and increasing numbers, they would likely overcome any opposition, even potentially resurrecting fire dragons to aid them. The idea of a prophesized hero being needed to defeat them emphasizes the extreme danger they pose to the world of Westeros. If there is no Prince Who is Promised in this era, then I say the book Others win with low to mid difficulty. Because if the book Others have the same ice spears as the show and can resurrect fire dragons then its a wrap, once they get one dragon it won't take long to get all 18 or 19 of them. They would win with nearly zero difficulty. There's a reason that the world needs a magical prophesised saviour to defeat them because they can never hope to do it themselves, even with a thousand dragons.

Also, I can think of even more than one reason why the Others perceive Adara to be a challenge to them like the Raven said. Adara is somehow similar to the Others but at same time they aren't really alike. Unlike them, she was born from a human not created. I think one of the main reasons why they see her as a challenge is because other supernatural powers that be may potentially use her to replace them at the top of the pecking order to restore balance since she doesn't actively pursue the destruction of all life. And because she might also have the same kind of magical abilities as the Others but doesn't really know how to fully use them yet. The Others are currently at the top or at least near the top of the mystical food chain at this point and time. Apex predators like them never like nor can tolerate even the remotest possibility of a potential rival gunning for their throne. As I've said before in another post, Daeron Targaryen himself may have latent powers that haven't been awakened through his mother's side of the family tree. Since, the Hightowers and Starks were both First Men and rumored to be kin (according to the mythical legends of Garth Greenhand and his children) before the Andals invaded. Like the unaired pilot of HBO's Blood Moon has confirmed. Before the Andals came, the First Men and COTF had still lived together in a quite a considerably long period of peaceful coexistence after the Others retreated back to the Lands of Always Winter and much longer after the two species had forged an important treaty or pact (which was long before the Long Night occurred) that's now to lost to human memory. The abilities of skinchanging and greensight probably wasn't common amongst the First Men until after this more peace-filled era of coexistence between them and the Children of the Forest happened. A multitude of them also could have mated and had a bunch of children with the Earthsingers which is how their descendants afterward came to inherit these abilities as well (unless they received their skinchanging and greenseer abilities by the Earthsingers who taught them to do some kind of magic ritual or sacrifice to the Old Gods which is more likely). In House of the Dragon, Daeron's sister Helaena might not only be a dreamer like Daenys but also a greenseer too. She has dragon dreams, which is a trait that runs in the Targaryen family. As far as we knew, Helaena's abilities seemed to be just visions inherited by the Valyrian side of her family thus far, but in the season two finale she clearly exhibits supernatural abilities and greenseer traits. Since, her abilities resemble those of the Three-Eyed Raven, a character we see during Daemon's weirwood vision in the show. So, it can also be possible in this story that all her siblings and kin may possess an inactive but different affinity to the spectrum that is magic due to their ancestral heritage which they aren't aware of. . .yet.
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Either way, when Aemond comes back to the capital. He'll realize quite sooner than his show canon counterpart that his strange but beloved sister is a seer after everything that he's just encountered and witnessed. Helaena Targaryen is secretly a dreamer in House of the Dragon, but no one ever believes her prophecies or dismisses her riddles and mutterings as dimwitted nonsense including her lazy and self-indulgent douche of a dad Viserys who supposedly had a vision and mistakenly thought the Prince Who Was Promised would be the son that Aemma bore him. The Targaryens only survived the Doom of Valyria because of the existence of a dreamer, which makes their ignorance and refusal to accept Helaena's power so confusing. This is one of the reasons why I blame Aegon the Conqueror for assimilating the line of Rhaenys into the totally rigid and absolutely hypocritical culture and religion of the Andals. Due to this and other factors, the Targaryens begun ignoring the influence of magic, which is really the source of their diminishing power and influence. Anyways, I think one of the most likely questions that I believe Aemond will ask Helaena since he'll be one of the first to finally realize that she's a seer. Is whether or not that they can trust Adara and if she'll pose any kind of danger to their family? And Helaena's subtle reply is more or less be that as long as Aemond and everyone else in their family doesn't attempt to manipulate nor backstab Adara. Then the Winterchild will never harm nor turn on them ever. Since, she's honestly a girl of her word and won't ever betray her allies unless they are egotistically stupid enough to betray her first. And she doesn't harm the innocent just the guilty (or at least those who try to get in her way). In short, Helaena will likely advise Aemond and the rest of their kin that it's far better for them to never piss the Winterchild off and work with her instead of against her. Since, she and perhaps Daeron are actually their leaders now and the realm's only hope of survival. So, all of (including Daemon who I know will be more than irritated that he has to follow the commands of children until the Winterchild personally straightens him out) them must follow the chain of command or perish when winter comes.
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"In the midst of chaos⚔️, there is also opportunity." — Sun Tzu, The Art of War.
"Take small bites🦈. Before people realize it, you have accumulated an empire." — Robert Greene, The 33♟️ Strategies of War.
"He who obtains the principality by the assistance of the nobles🐍maintains⚖️himself🤴 with more difficulty than he who comes to it by the aid of the people." — Niccolo Machiavelli, The Prince.
"A wise prince👑must devise♟️ways by which his citizens will always have need for the state and for him in every ⚖️ circumstance. Then he will always find them faithful." - Niccolo Machiavelli, The Prince.
"Do not be lured 🎣 by the need to be liked: better to be respected, even feared 😱 . Victory over your enemies🐍 will bring you a more lasting popularity 🏆 ." — Robert Greene, The 33 Strategies of War.

I'm curious to see the social and geopolitical upheaval Adara's actions will bring to the male-dominated system of Westeros and beyond. As far as I can see, she's a true leader who could bring revolutionary change to this world. The potential impact of the massive power shift that will inevitably happen when she seizes absolute control over House Targaryen is possibly greater than that of the Doom itself, depending on the decisions and commands that Adara may make in the near future. But I won't be surprised if she acts like Genghis Khan in this fic in terms of ruthlessness and meritocratic leadership. A character who deliberately creates a common threat for the warring factions to unite against (which is a common political strategy that generals and politicians often use in times of crisis. Since, leaders sometimes strategically use the perception of an external threat ("enemy at the gates") to divert public attention away from domestic issues or problems they might be facing or rather to create a sense of urgency and patriotism, potentially deflecting criticism or concerns about their leadership. By focusing public attention on an external threat, it can distract people from internal problems, creating a "rally around the flag" effect. But this tactic can be misused to manipulate public opinion and suppress or rouse dissent by exaggerating the threat posed by an enemy as well. Which is what Larys more or less did in the canon when he subtly weaponized the common populace of King's Landing against Rhaenyra through Ser Perkin the Flea and the Shepard because right after the Storming of the Dragonpit and Rhaenyra's execution. He and Aegon waltzes in and claims power nearly unopposed while the Shepherd's influence seemed to evaporate instantly) and promotes individuals based on merit rather than noble birth, which helps her gain loyalty from her future followers and fosters a sense of unity. And often utilizes fear and reputation as tools to intimidate opponents, often leading them to surrender without battle.

She's also a combination of Joan of Arc, Lawrence of Arabia and Cincinnatus; meaning she embodies the strong leadership and inspirational charisma of Joan of Arc (and like Adara, the French peasant girl was also ultimately betrayed by her own countrymen) as well as the strategic prowess and ability to rally diverse forces like Lawrence of Arabia. Because perhaps by the end of this journey beyond the Wall, Adara might gain more potential strong allies that'll ultimately bolster and support her unconventional and unprecedented position of regency over the House of the Dragon as well as the realm itself: such as the North and the Free Folk. Because normally, the Northerners don't care enough to involve themselves in the politics of the south. This time, they have no choice since the Others are coming and they need the Targs set their bullshit aside and command their dragons and the rest of the kingdoms to help them. And the wildlings don't want to die and be added to ranks of the armies of the dead. Hence, I'm certain Cregan Stark and his vassals by extension will no doubt follow Adara's lead and support her unprecedented role as regent over the royal family because his kingdom will be the first one to be ravaged first by the Long Night. And just like her, he doesn't really care about the Targaryens' dysfunctional family drama and has no desire to waste precious time and manpower over their petty bullshit when their real enemy is coming to destroy not just the realm but all life on this earth. Adara has the dutifulness and willingness to let go of power just like Cincinnatus which I'm sure will perpetually surprise everyone by the end of this story. And I'm sure she'll be highly respected for it in the future even if a number of people can't actually fathom why she would do so while some like Cregan Stark, Jeyne Arryn, Princess Rhaenys, Mysaria and Daeron may to a certain extent.

Just like the Black Death and the Bronze Age Collapse, the Long Night and Winter Fever represents a period of extreme devastation and widespread death, potentially causing significant societal disruption and population decline. After the Others are vanquished, will the lords and ladies of Westeros could very well go right back to scheming or will the feudal system of Westeros be significantly altered in any way in this story, I wonder? After all, this is can be a great opportunity for the Targaryens to further consolidate their royal power over the continent and continue to centralize the entire realm into more of a nation-state instead of the decentralized confederation that it is. That is if any of the surviving Targs within the aftermath of this cataclysmic war are politically astute and intelligent enough to realize and enact such a plan in the first place. After all, a consolidation of power, especially if it has to be done quickly, comes in response to a crisis such as a war or an invasion.

Since the lack of successful centralization in the realm of Westeros can be attributed to a considerable number of interrelated factors. I think the most common answer to this is that circumstances got in the way. Aegon I was more concerned with completing/consolidating the conquest; Aenys and Maegor were focused on completing Aegon's work, especially the Red Keep, and maintaining their own positions; and then Jaeherys attempted centralization without rocking the boat too much. The Old King tried for decades to reform and unify the disparate laws of the Seven Kingdoms, he built roads to knit the regions closer together, and he made his yearly progresses to demonstrate Targaryen supremacy. Like Jaehaerys managed to do some centralisation with codifying all laws into one and building the kingsroad. But his later years were spent much like his predecessors, being reactive instead of proactive. Viserys I wanted everyone to like him so he didn't impose any major reforms to the laws, even when it could have benefited his female heir. His inaction and foolishness is partly what led to the Dance of Dragons. Then the Dance screwed everything and set the kingdoms against each other. Further, killing all the fighting dragons removed the central unifying power structure that kept Targaryen rule unquestioned. Changes in relative power frequently precipitate conflict and predictably the kingdoms faced rebellion after rebellion, civil war after civil war.

Feudal systems are decentralized by their very nature (you get lordship of some land, you provide taxes and levies when your overlord calls). Keeping one's vassals balanced against each other keeps any one from challenging you, and 1-v-1 the highest lord should be able to take on any rebels, but you're essentially first among equals. It's a durable system overall but prone to frequent internal conflict, hence pre-Targ Westeros never being unified in any sustained way. Targaryen power in Westeros was not in land or armies but dragons, so post-Dance you have a feudal overlord with imperial ambitions that is demonstrably less powerful than several of his vassals.

On a side note, I think Aegon V "the Unlikely" shows the paradox the Targaryens were in, especially after the dragons died out. Egg (as he is known as a kid and as I'll call him for simplicity sake) was a reformer and hence the most unique monarch out of all the Targaryen kings. He implemented many necessary reforms to win the love of the "smallfolk", and promote growth and trade by allowing small businesses to take off more. The problem is, with the way things were set up leading to his reign, of a very rigid feudal and manorial system with little mobility, multiple lords rebelled because of their lost privileges. This meant Egg spent a lot of his reign putting out these insurrections. These constant, unending petty rebellions made Egg desperate for a solution. Desperate enough to try and resurrect the dragons. In his failure, he destroyed Summerhall (the Targaryens second seat of power later on, both a vacation home and a very rich and fertile area), and got himself and his son and heir burned alive. This left his sickly and a lot more traditional son Jaehaerys II in charge, and put his grandson Aerys (who would grow into the Mad King Aerys II) further up in the line of succession. In other words, the Targaryens needed both dragons and their own personally massive army to keep a whole continent in check. As well as finding constant ways to make sure that they influence and control the peasants more than the nobles do.

By contrast, true imperial systems like Valyria or Old Ghis are extremely centralized, with one entity utterly dominating and exploiting all others through economic, mercantile, and military force. But those systems tend to disintegrate when you remove the instruments of power that enable the central entity to dominate their vassals. Common cultural unifiers like language, religion, communications infrastructure, and trade have kept much of the Seven Kingdoms together longer than would be expected given the power relationships involved, but it seems pretty clear that as a single entity the Seven Kingdoms' power has ebbed steadily since the Dance and without a central dominating power to assume control, they will eventually fall apart. Which is exactly what happened in the books. In short, the Targaryens can pretty much be divided into two almost separate dynasties pre and post Dance due to the drastic loss of power.

Pre-Dance:
The Targaryens didn't care to institute too many drastic reforms, taking their lead from Aegon the Conqueror who seemed to prefer a more decentralized system and tried to avoid interfering with localized politics and traditions. Jaehaerys did a fair bit to try centralize Westeros but aside from that no other Targaryen King pre-Dance really shared that ambition.

Post-Dance:
The Targaryens power and dynastic respect took a massive hit. They went from Westeros' near undisputed Valyrian dragon riding masters to just the ruling house of the time. Rhaenyra's and Daemon's descendant Aegon V tried unsuccessfully to institute reform but was plagued with rebellion and disobedience because he lacked the power to force it through. Anyways, a lot of this is likely reflective of GRRM's own views on how reform happens with drastic reform needing violence and more subtle progress requiring some level of improvement in general education and/or living standards. Westeros also struggles by virtue of geography and cultural disparity. It's very big and there is at least one or two fundamentally incompatible culture pairings.

Generally, lords are very prickly about their power and privileges, and while Targaryens can break them by force, it tends to be expensive and risky. Especially if too many of them feel threatened at once. The closest any king came to restricting the power of certain lords was probably Aegon V passing laws for the sake of the smallfolk, and he faced constant opposition and even rebellions for it. But the one thing that made Aegon really special in that regard is that he cared a lot more about how the realm was run for the benefit of most of the people living in it, while other Targaryens were often just trying to make sure they were the ones running it, and keeping the status quo was the safest course of action in the short term. Many of the Targaryens before and after Aegon V weren't exactly wise and smart rulers. They were entilted and spoiled. Even the good ones have an over inflated perception of themselves and a fucked up perception of things. Also, the Targs were never really liked all that much, they were mostly tolerated. Also, there is no sense of national identity within Westeros. These people were their own thing in every one of the kingdoms for thousands of years until the Targs came and said "No"....and then did essentially nothing to foster complete unity.

Furthermore, House Targaryen's biggest weakness is that their power is rooted in fear. Now that's an effective tool for being followed, but it does not inspire eternal loyalty. Tywin Lannister's dynasty crumbled the moment he died because there was no one to be afraid of. Aerys had no weapon of mass destruction (except wildfire) at all and saw his family come to ruin. Rhaenyra basically sat aside and did nothing when the smallfolk slaughter all of her dragons. They all should've learned to work with their citizens, nobility and smallfolk alike (but the smallfolk mainly since the commoners tend to always outnumber the nobility. Three to one), instead of holding themselves above them as if they were actually chosen by gods. Instead they're a family slowly tearing their kingdom apart piece by piece. Their overall reliance on the dragons to win wars and as political tools to solely maintain their rule over the realm was very shortsighted error on their part. After all, a dragon or a sharp sword isn't always a suitable tool for solving all problems. That's why Adara will be the one to majorly hold the reins of power instead of the Targaryens in this AU. Because she has a more controlled temper and never acts without thinking. And that she precisely knows when and how to demonstrate a fine balance between violence and mercy in terms of sovereignty and leadership. Even if she (for now) bears neither a crown nor title of a sovereign in this fanfic (but she may really become one or may be offered such a regal position of power if she later on becomes renowned and seen as a living folklore hero by the people of Westeros. Especially among the Crownlanders, the Riverlords, the Northerners and of course, many of the smallfolk in general. The Targaryens will inevitably want Adara to officially become a part of their family through marriage to one of their princes due to the control she has over her massive dragon as well as her own powers which we haven't specifically seen yet. Any abilities that can be inherited from her magical blood could probably empower the Targaryen dynasty and doubly enhance the potency of magic in their bloodline is a thought that'll run through their minds once they realize that she means them no harm. But I think that she can care little and less for any offers of wealth, power and status. Currently speaking, Adara just wants to fly far away from human civilization and live wild and free in the cold wilderness with Frostsinger. She's completely done with humans and their self-destructive bullshit).

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=WMEdnBoQcxA
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=ZjmrUTR_7oc
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Ss4yw9-zUvc
https://readomain.com/read/theprincebyniccolomachiavelli/chapter9/begin
https://www.cliffsnotes.com/literature/p/the-prince/summary-and-analysis/chapter-9
https://bjpcjp.github.io/pdfs/behavior/48-laws-power/The-48-Laws-of-Power-Robert-Greene.pdf
http://48laws-of-power.blogspot.com...oure-dealing-with-do.html?m=1#google_vignette
https://metallicman.com/laoban4site...not-offend-the-wrong-person-48-laws-of-power/
https://www.cbr.com/house-of-the-dragon-helaena-targaryen-seer-prophecies-explained/
https://collider.com/house-of-the-dragon-season-2-helaena-greenseer-powers/
https://screenrant.com/house-of-the-dragon-helaena-targaryen-bran-stark-replacement/
https://www.reddit.com/r/asoiaf/comments/y6zr32/spoilers_published_the_empire_of_the_dawn_and/#
https://www.reddit.com/r/asoiaf/comments/1j0roz/spoilers_all_grrm_drawing_inspiration_from_black/
https://www.quora.com/Why-did-none-of-the-kings-of-Westeros-try-to-centralize-their-realm
https://www.reddit.com/r/asoiaf/comments/15mic6k/spoilers_extended_why_didnt_the_valyrian_freehold/
https://atheoryoficefire.quora.com/How-did-the-Targaryens-rule-so-long-before-Robert
https://warsofasoiaf.tumblr.com/post/138017854841/what-would-it-take-for-westeros-to-start-moving
https://www.quora.com/What-do-you-think-about-the-Valyrian-Invasion-of-Hardhome-Theory
https://racefortheironthrone.wordpress.com/archive/hollow-crowns-and-deadly-thrones/
https://racefortheironthrone.wordpress.com/archive/hands-of-the-king/
https://www.quora.com/unanswered/Wh...or-Ahai-What-are-the-dark-mysteries-of-Asshai
https://m.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLEHvft-cyPmAMAMVS1CITMYC4FGyTlhjb
https://m.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLl22MT8gNGbva6o1UH9i0FvEWGKIl6xmZ
https://m.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLl22MT8gNGbv3fnQ6srS-qIckS-E_hmV6
 
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I believe that there are quite a number of reasons why this world hasn't technologically advanced for thousands of years and not all of them can be solely blamed on the paranormal existence of the Others. They (the entirety of Planetos as far as we know) have been fairly stagnant for at least 8,000 years, likely longer. Seems excessive, our world changed a little faster than that. But I think it's the loss of magic that makes them seem so "primitive", for lack of a better term. Magic took the place of technology and as it's died tech hasn't replaced it, fundamentally speaking.

Another short answer for why Westeros isn't industrialized yet is because GRRM didn't want it to be. But if we search for the in-world reasons though, I think it's just too early. The last Long Night was a reset point, it occurred 8,000 BC or so they say. In the books, Sam pointed out to Jon Snow the fact that the Maesters and every other scholar themselves cannot precisely pinpoint that time means that the most of the human knowledge was generally lost at that time. Around 4700 BC, so not that long after the Long Night, Valyrian Freehold removed its main competitor, Old Empire of Ghis, and dominated the world until 102 BC. Since this was an empire based on slavery, they literally had no need or incentive for improving technology. This is what people don't get about Rome: Rome wouldn't bring technological civilization, as some people claim, they had slave-based economy, they didn't need technology. Same situation with Valyria. So the time starts again after the destruction of Valyria, events of the War of the Five Kings take place just around 400 years after the destruction of Valyria. If the destruction of Valyria is the end of their Antiquity, however long it lasted, their Middle Ages just begun 400 years ago. It's just not enough time for the development of technology to reach industrial era.

In recent centuries, people didn't live in the constant fear of the Long Night: the events of the Long Night were all but forgotten during the events of ASOIAF, in the books nearly nobody have ever seen the Others, in the show they obviously made them more common, still, before the actual attack of the Others nobody considered them as real. Which is exactly what the Others wanted them all to believe and think. As part of their waiting game and overall strategy due to the fact that humans themselves have short lifespans and even shorter memories. Too much has passed and they reverted back to fighting amongst themselves like the Others have patiently predicted.

As for Westeros (or rather the whole of "Planetos"), theres' a few unique factors in play. The long and irregular winters would slow progress by forcing societies into survival mode, with a high casualty rate. For much of ASOIAF history, magic was a powerful and practical force, which would replace technology and absorb a lot of the limited intellectual labour effort available (why be an engineer when you can be a magician?). Lastly, in Essos (which accounts for much of the world's economy) slavery was and is universal, and it's thought that the availability of cheap human labour discourages the invention of mechanical labour, which, in it's early stages, is often unreliable, expensive and limited in capability and versatility. It's thought that the latter factor might be one of the principle reasons for the Roman Empire never developing more advanced technology despite having many thinkers capabl of inventing it.

If you cannot predict the length of the seasons, you cannot properly plan how much food to stockpile before winter. Even if they knew, there's an upper limit of how long you can store before food starts going bad and you're not benefitting from stockpiling. It's not that winter is long that's particularly the issue, it's that it's inconsistent. Except for the very few elites, everyone is in a save for winter - survive winter cycle. Except for military/related military production and prostitution, there is little for commoners to do apart from farming/fishing and food related logistics. Commoners work to save for winter, lords tax the farmers and enforce their rule with their militaries, and even in periods without war there is almost guaranteed to be a famine once every 10 years. A complete lack of food surplus means that the population has little ability to innovate or take risks doing things that have never been done before. If you think outside of the box, you're almost guaranteeing your death. Of course, this is mainly due to the Others but I also think that this world's stagnation is because of the humans as well.

Furthermore, I've always figured Westeros's lack of societal progress also had something to do with the people setting themselves back with their constant warring and looting. In Essos, the Dothraki burned entire civilizations along with its great knowledge, and the Valyrians (and also Valyria was highly magically advanced. They probably focused more on developing magic than technology. When the Doom happened, a lot of their knowledge died with them) did it before them. Westeros was in a constant state of war before the Conquest. The Doom of Valyria also destroyed so much technological marvels and Valyrian knowledge. Similar to the Dark Ages after the fall of Rome or the flood of Alexandria. Valyria had its knowledge concentrated in one spot, and it all went up in flames.

There's a few key differences with our world. Like the Maesters who seem to be controlling every domain of science and technology (because the grey rats 🐀 are deliberately keeping knowledge to themselves. They don't want most people to be able to read and write. They don't want books to be easily copied. They want to be people's only source of knowledge). Westeros is also NOT densely populated. The Targaryens remaining stagnant is in their advantage due to dragons. If you have fighter jets, you don't want your subjects to develop tanks or anti-aircraft technology themselves. AGOT is darker and deadlier than the regular Middle Ages so science can be slower. Also, the middle ages are really long and GoT doesn't have an absurdly long timeline. Then consider that industrialization is NOT something that happens naturally in the growing process of any civilisation. It's a step where a lot of civilisations got stuck and couldn't move past. Like China, Japan or Rome. Industrialisation takes a ton of luck and ingenuity to figure out.

I saw a video by Preston Jacobs on YouTube a while ago where he argued GRRM wanted ASOIAF to be Marxist in terms of economic and social development and tbh I see this argument! Dragons and magic are so powerful that they keep the ruling class in power for a long time, and so the feudal/monarchical system doesn't change. During the "modern" main story, dragons are (mostly) gone and so conflicts require technological innovation for one side to have an advantage over another, as is the case in our real history.

By the end of the books, though the show doesn't do this, we are meant to assume that the only thing which will stop the Long Night is all of Westeros coming together to defeat a common enemy. We are also shown repeatedly by GRRM that monarchy and feudal conflict is very bad for the people, and characters like Dany talk about not "stopping the wheel" of feudalism, but "breaking" it. Preston Jacobs also argued that the actual book ending of ASOIAF is meant to be the weakening or the end of monarchy and the introduction of some kind of democracy, as well as centralising the Seven Kingdoms into one state (even Joffrey talks about this in season 1 with an army just for the crown). This would also be the result of, and would itself encourage, economic development out of feudalism and into mercantilism, proto-capitalism, capitalism etc.

The problem is as is established Westeros was in perpetual conflict with each other's kingdom for thousands of years, and combined with harsh winters this kept stunting the development of Westeros because so many men kept dying and so much was spent on warfare and just surviving. When Aegon's Conquest happened peace was mostly achieved, but this made things worse during warfare as when war came now all the kingdom was having to get involved, the Dance of the Dragons for example killed tens of thousands and left the Riverlands badly damaged while food later ran scarce due to the men having left to fight rather then gather crops, and as populations grew winters kept affecting and hampering them, the North for example is perpetually stalled because of its climate and the winter affecting it the most. The Citadel is also hoarding knowledge and the maesters clearly don't want people getting ideas of their own, so is deliberately preventing society from modernising to keep knowledge under their control and lords dependent on them. So, the simplest answer for all this stagnation is magic, war and the lust for power.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=op6seNKakmo
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=uRTUqBfou4Y
https://m.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLqbPyQ8lWGoyoRs3kr72brm8j8uo26Uyu
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=PzmxZDoWkpQ&pp=ygUoaG91c2Ugb2YgdGhlIGRyYWdvbiBiYXNlZCBvbiB0aGUgYW5hcmNoeQ==
https://m.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLl22MT8gNGbva6o1UH9i0FvEWGKIl6xmZ
https://gameofthrones.fandom.com/wiki/Pilot_(Bloodmoon)
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=_HqUzLVn5FQ
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Ke1S9zIIsv0
https://racefortheironthrone.wordpress.com/archive/politics-of-the-seven-kingdoms/
https://atlasoficeandfireblog.wordpress.com/2018/05/03/an-economic-map-of-the-seven-kingdoms/
https://racefortheironthrone.wordpr...throne-westerosi-economic-development-series/
https://warsandpoliticsoficeandfire.wordpress.com/2019/12/19/economics-of-westeros-ii/
https://towerofthehand.com
https://towerofthehand.com/blog/2015/01/04-worst-man-in-westeros-slavers/
https://meereeneseblot.wordpress.com/essays/
https://racefortheironthrone.wordpress.com/archive/a-laboratory-of-politics/
 
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"The main and principal point in war is to secure plenty of provisions and destroy the enemy by famine🌾🔥." — Vegetius
"Hence the wise general sees to it that his troops feed on the enemy, for one bushel of the enemy's provisions🌾is equivalent ⚖️ to twenty of his; one hundredweight of enemy 🪖 fodder 🌾 to twenty hundredweight of his." — Sun Tzu, The Art of War.
"Good officers decline general engagements⚔️where the danger is common, and prefer the employment of strategem and finesse to destroy the enemy as much as possible in detail 🧮 and intimidate🐯them without exposing our own forces." — Vegetius
"Thus, those skilled in war ⚔️ subdue the enemy's army without battle." — Sun Tzu, The Art of War.
"It is better to defeat♟️the enemy by hunger than with steel; in such victory fortune counts more than virtu." - Niccolò Machiavelli, The Art of War.
"You will not find it difficult to prove that♟️⚔️battles, campaigns, and even wars have been won 🏆 or lost primarily because of logistics." — Dwight Eisenhower

There is one more thing that I forgot to add right until now. One more event that hasn't been erased by this entire canon divergent timeline: the fact that the Greens have stole and hidden away the royal treasury. At the start of the Dance of the Dragons, Tyland Lannister was named master of coin by Queen Alicent, replacing Lord Lyman Beesbury, who had been murdered for his support of Rhaenyra. Upon his appointment, Tyland acted at once to seize the royal treasury. The crown's gold was divided into four parts. One part was entrusted to the care of the Iron Bank of Braavos for safekeeping, another sent to Casterly Rock, and a third to Oldtown. The remaining wealth was used by the greens for bribes and gifts, and hiring sellswords. He divided it (smart move) so that just in case KL fell under them, Rhaenyra wouldn't be able to hold it for long without taxing and making an enemy of the smallfolk. Because the Greens all knew that she isn't exactly as strategic and politically astute that an heir apparent to the throne should be.

This stratagem is another classic example of "remove the firewood from under the cauldron". This is a military strategy, originating from the Chinese essay "Thirty-Six Stratagems," which means to indirectly weaken an enemy by taking away their key source of strength, essentially removing their ability to continue fighting effectively, similar to taking away the fuel from a fire; it signifies attacking the enemy's support system rather than directly confronting their frontline forces. Instead of directly engaging the enemy's strongest point, this strategy focuses on undermining their capacity to fight by targeting their logistics, morale, or vital supplies, which can be compared to removing the firewood that keeps a cauldron boiling. By attacking their support system, you can disrupt their offensive and hinder their ability to maintain their current strength. In modern warfare, this strategy could involve actions like disrupting an enemy's communication networks, sabotaging their supply lines, or undermining their leadership to weaken their overall fighting capability. Which is what Tyland and the rest of the Green Council did by removing the Crown's gold. They knew that Rhaenyra would self-sabotage herself and be unable to sustain/rule King's Landing since it was already in a dire financial state due to the Velaryon naval blockade. In the long run, the Greens had evidently turned the Blacks' Vegetian strategy of war (which is attributed to the Roman military writer Flavius Vegetius Renatus in his work "De Re Militari" (also known as "Epitoma rei militaris") where he emphasizes the importance of securing food supplies to weaken and defeat an enemy through starvation, rather than solely through direct combat. Vegetius believed that starving the enemy by cutting off their access to food was often a more effective strategy than engaging in open battle, as it could lead to their surrender without significant losses to your own forces. This idea was particularly relevant in ancient warfare where logistics and food supply chains were often precarious, making the threat of famine a significant factor in military campaigns. For example, a naval blockade can prove to be an effective strategy in terms of Vegetian warfare. The goal of a blockade can be to achieve a military objective, such as capturing a port, or to force an enemy to surrender by cutting off trade. Since, this would prevent much-needed food, energy, and other materials from reaching the people of the blockaded region. As civilian suffering increased, it would put pressure on leaders to end the war. In House of the Dragon, the "Gullet" is considered a crucial location during the Dance of the Dragons because it represents a narrow, strategic waterway that allows for a naval blockade of King's Landing, essentially cutting off the capital city's access to vital supplies and potentially swaying public opinion against the ruling faction, the Greens, by depriving them of the ability to provide for the people) against them. This strategy of slowly weakening the enemy by cutting off their resources and causing famine can be more effective than a direct military confrontation, especially when the enemy is strong or well-equipped. While strategically sound, this tactic can be seen as morally questionable as well as a double-edged sword due to the potential suffering it inflicts on the enemy population. That's why Adara will most likely have a lot of work to do when she arrives at the capital and fixes the mess that both the Blacks and Greens have made before she can even begin to fully assemble and build her coalition/army.
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In the canon, the worst part about this theft is that Rhaenyra didn't need to tax the smallfolk, the Vale was untouched by the war and didn't send troops to help her, she could have asked her cousin for money or promised to make Hugh and Ulf lords and give them Casterly Rock and Oldtown so they could retrieve half the gold from those places instead of taxing the smallfolk (that she was starving before she took the city, her plan was going to backfire sooner or later). Back then, Rhaenyra had a number of strategies she could have used to recuperate royal funds. Hell, between the armies of the North, the Vale and the Riverlands, those plus her dragons should have been sufficient to invade the Westerlands and seize some crops and gold mines. Furthermore, she could easily have sold dragon eggs, sought out loans from the banks of the Free Cities (Braavos isn't the only one that has one), pawned or sold valuables as numerous medieval monarchies did, sold or leased royal lands, pardons and offices, ransomed hostages, etc. But she didn't care about the smallfolk nor feared the possibility of their reprisal in the slightest. Just like her father Viserys, Rhaenyra cares more about the opinions of the nobility than the peasants. She simply expected everyone to accept her decree because she is the Queen, and her word is law. In her eyes, the commoners wouldn't dare raise much of a fuss so as long as she had dragons.

At this point in time, with the Lannister army destroyed and the Westerlands being ravished by the Greyjoys. Rhaenyra could've offered pardons to Johanna Lannister and her children in exchange for the return of the gold and possibly a fine for the treason. Because getting a short-term loan from Corlys wouldn't be enough. Despite the Sea Snake being the richest man in Westeros. Without the dragon betrayal, Rhaenyra could've taken Oldtown, and have the vast Hightower wealth at her disposal. It wouldn't be hard to convince Corlys with the spoils of war that appear to soon be at their disposal.

In short, I personally think the best option was to force the Lannisters and the Hightowers to replenish the money, otherwise Oldtown and Casterly Rock will get a visit from Caraxes and the other dragons. The problem was that to do this, Rhaenyra had to kill all the Greens (and the Greens' dragons) first, so that both the Lannisters and the Hightowers would realize they no longer had Tessarion (or even Vhagar) to protect them. At the time, she still had the loyalty of Hugh and Ulf (although who knows if they were actually still loyal to her at the time). If Rhaenyra had managed to kill Daeron and Aemond quickly, all the houses loyal to the Greens would lose hope and beg for mercy. The Lannisters and the Hightowers would undoubtedly ask for mercy, in exchange for sparing their lives both houses must replace the stolen gold (something they could certainly do), other houses like House Baratheon or lesser houses would also have to pay in cash for choosing to side with Aegon II and the Greens (especially the Baratheons because Luke died at Storm's End).

Another issue was that everything went wrong: the betrayal of Hugh and Ulf (because she didn't make them lords and give them big castles like Daemon wisely suggested), the exile of Addam, the exile of Nettles, the death of Daemon, the attack on the Dragonpit, etc. Anyways, the point is everyone knows that there is no castle or fortress capable of resisting the dragons (maybe Casterly Rock but the Lannisters know that they have no future living hidden in the rocks) in the past. Even Oldtown itself surrendered to Visenya and Maegor.
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"I am not afraid of an army of lions led by a sheep; I am afraid of an army of sheep led by a lion🦁." — Alexander the Great
"Reputation is the cornerstone of power ♟️." - Robert Greene, The 48 Laws of Power.
"Religion is regarded by the common people🐑 as true, by the wise 🧘‍♂️ as false, and by the rulers 👑 as useful." — Seneca
"Play on people's need to believe." — Robert Greene, The 48 Laws of Power.

In this alternate reality, I doubt Adara will be stupid like Rhaenyra and just ignore the smallfolk's plight like the Blacks have in the canon (and again, I have say this: what the hell was Rhaenyra thinking?! Her downfall came not from Vhagar with Aemond riding her, and not even the Two Betrayers who rode Vermithor and Silverwing. No, it was from the common folk. A monarch had to be extremely moronic to rouse their anger. Instead of sourcing coin by seizing the treasuries of the lords who had supported her half-brother, or borrowing from the Iron Bank to pay them back to once the war came to an end and trade was restored, the dragon queen, by the advice of her illustrious new Master of Coin, Bartimos Celtigar, imposed taxes on the common populace of the city, common folk who had suffered hunger since the Riverlands went aflame under Aemond and Vhagar's wrath, and the supply routes from the Reach had been seized by Daeron and the host he commanded). Once she has taken charge and assesses the city's situation. Maybe she'll allow the citizens of King's Landing to hunt for food in the Kingswood in order to stave off the people's hunger and buy some time until the Crown's gold has been retrieved. Unlike the Targaryens, I think she'll see the absolute necessity of being on the smallfolk's good side because how does one expect themself to command and lead or govern and rule in times of crisis if you can't keep all those, not just the soldiers, under your jurisdiction well-fed and content. Another one of the reasons why I think it's highly likely that Adara will become beloved by the common people is due to her background as a crofter's daughter, allowing her to relate to their struggles (hence, why a partnership between her and Mysaria may come to be in the near future. Especially after Adara decides to shut down all the child fighting pits and all the brothels used to smuggle goods and slaves and then proceeds to eradicate all the smugglers and slavers from the shores of Westeros. In terms of propaganda and psychological warfare, Lady Misery would prove to be very useful and effective at swaying the citizens of King's Landing to Adara's side. Considering what happened in Season 2 of the show). While most of the Targs can't because they don't even understand nor even care about their subjects' plight. Truth be told, them and the nobility in this world are seriously out of touch with the needs of the people whose work supports all their bloody shenanigans (For example, in the show we see the blacksmith Hugh Hammer who has been stiffed by Aegon nursing his ailing daughter. I feel bad for him because she later died. Maybe this timeline will be different since Adara will eventually arrive at the capital). It will be shocking to the people of King's Landing and across the realm that this foreign dragonlord isn't a dragonseed nor has any trace of highborn blood in her veins at all. Due to her authentic charisma and how unnaturally ethereal her looks (deceptively) are. And because she probably knows how to do a lot of things like farming, crofting, fishing and hunting as well as how to barter and stitch wounds. All manual labor stuff that a typical noble girl of the south would never ever actually bother to deign themselves to learn nor know how to do.

Since, the people of Westeros (or at least those living in the southern half of it) believe that the Targaryens have been chosen by the Seven and everyone knows the Gods' stance on bastards. Adara and her dragon's mere existence can also potentially demystify the mystique and image of supremacy that the House of the Dragon has built and struggled to maintain for decades. The Targaryens have long substituted the real world *divine birthright to rule* with *Valyrian and dragonrider supremacy*. In the canon, the Greens had never thought that Rhaenyra would allow dragonseeds to claim dragons, lowering the image of the dragon-riders of House Targaryen from "closer to the gods" to "anyone with enough blood can ride one". Or in this case, anyone with enough magical blood and intelligence is able to tame and ride a dragon.

Also, a foreign dragonlord with no trace of Valyrian descent will shatter the worldview of the Targaryens and everybody else in Westeros in this story. In House of the Dragon, the smallfolk have long believed that this family of dragonlords are related to or chosen by the gods. Because according to their eyes, the Targaryens are powerful, mysterious and inhumanely beautiful beings who ride mythical beasts given to them by the gods. Therefore, Adara will be seen as more mysterious and powerful than them because everyone in the Seven Kingdoms will realize that she isn't a dragonseed and that she rides a dragon that has long been considered a northern fairytale and belongs to an entirely different subspecies that's so unlike all the fire drakes that the Targaryens own. Furthermore, despite her utter lack of Valyrian features. She doesn't look very human either. With just the right whispers (and House Targaryen's backing), she can be portrayed as a heaven sent savior who will defend humanity from icy demons that lurk beyond the Wall to the masses. That's if she and the Targaryens are able to come to some kind of mutual agreement after the Winter Child has completely brought the so-called House of the Dragon to heel. Of course, I don't think that Adara wants to be seen as some sort of icon or messiah to the people of Westeros but she may not have a choice if she wants to retain power until the Long Night is over. After that, she'll probably still leave the realm behind by then. Even if everyone including the Targaryens don't want her to leave after they've finally begun to genuinely care and accept her. Secondly, there will still be a Sowing of the Seeds but this time, there will be even more dragonseeds who will claim more of House Targaryen's dragons to fight the Others and other monsters (like the Squishers for example) in this AU. Such as Trystane Truefyre and Gaemon Palehair for instance.

P.S. I strongly believe that any kind of blood can hatch and tame a dragon if they know how to do it. It's not canon but logically the current dragons in Westeros were bred to recognise Targaryen blood since it's probably part of their DNA, but I am sure a Targ could not tame a foreign dragon from Asshai or the Shivering Sea. I think it was a bit implied with Cannibal, the dragon was theorized to be foreign to Westeros. Maybe an old egg recovered from another family that have no DNA allegiance to the Targs and no one was able to tame it. Or he can be Balerion and Vhagar's son who has some sort of grudge against the Targaryens for some reason. Who knows? Personally, I think that there's 50/50 chance that either Nettles maybe Daemon's daughter or isn't actually a dragonseed at all. But none of us really got a clue to be honest.

https://awoiaf.westeros.org/index.p...f.westeros.org/index.php/Hammer_of_the_waters
 
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Adara and Rhaenys would get along, especially consdering the timeline that they meet in.

Start of Canon Rhaenys at least gave a shit about appearances and gave a passing attempt at courtly pleasantries, I think, whereas Dance-period Rhaenys was well out of fucks to give.

Her blunt, no-nonsense attitude, while a little abrasive would appeal to Adara infinitely more than just about anyone else's in Westeros, because she too has long passed the point of giving a rat's ass about just about anything.
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My thoughts exactly, they're both similarly tired of all the bullshit they've been through, individually speaking. Which's why I won't be surprised if Rhaenys grows increasingly fond of Adara that she later wants to adopt her or begins plotting on how to convince Adara into joining the royal fold after she's fully deduced and taken the Winterchild's measure. Anyway, there is something that I'm somewhat confused about in regards to Rhaenys and her character arc in both book and show canon that I'd hope you can help me clarify, Firewillreign, since I didn't entirely grasp all her reasons when it came to down to her loyalty and decision to join the Blacks.
In the first season of House of the Dragon, Rhaenys has just lost all her children and her husband abandoned her. Her entire life, she has done the reasonable thing to keep peace. And she's now bitter. In the show, in Godswood, it had been obvious that Rhaenys wanted to see the Greens tear apart Rhaenyra. She had fully believed that Rhaenyra had murdered her son and had married her daughter's husband less than a fortnight after the fact, neither waiting the end of their late spouses' mourning. They disrespected the Velaryons and their children's memory in front of the Seven Kingdoms. At the throne room, Rhaenys had only sided with the Blacks because the King would accept no less and had just tried to also position her granddaughters as well as could be done with the marriages. Back then, Rhaenys must have been angry to be stumped just before getting some justice. She had wanted to see Rhaenyra and Daemon brought low. She had wanted to see their humiliation in court and the threat of more blows to follow. Instead, Viserys had appeared in the nick of time to protect them and she had been forced to settle and bind her own granddaughters to the Blacks. For a grieving mother, it is maddening to side with her children's murderers and protect them against her will.

And yet, by the next episode she was saying that the word of her house was not fickle instead of siding with the Greens. I think Alicent came on too strong, she poked all of Rhaenys' wounds and then tried to promise peace, when Rhaenys had restrained herself her entire life for peace. Peace had given Rhaenys two dead children and her granddaughters in the precarious position of being betrothed to bastards. A person could only suffer so many strikes before they wanted war. And that was what I suspect Rhaenys truly wanted, to have the Blacks and the Greens tear each other apart while her granddaughters remained safe and away from warfare as Daemon's daughters. Rhaenys didn't kill the Greens at Aegon's coronation because she had no reason to fight for Rhaenyra at that point.

On the next episode, Rhaenys had told the news to the Blacks as bluntly as possible, not even stopping when she saw Rhaenyra start to wince in pain and distress and not contradicting Daemon when he accused the Queen of murdering her husband when all had seen he was dying. She had then called Jacaerys and Lucerys to Rhaenyra, to let her give instruction and for them to see her in pain. Rhaenys had refused to kneel at the coronation or in the war councils, and had been pleased when she saw dissent between Rhaenyra and Daemon. Her resented husband had finally told her that he would put his pride aside and take no side, and Rhaenys who had just been told by Alicent that without her dragon there might be no war, had suddenly changed her mind and persuaded him to side with Rhaenyra. Supposedly, seeing Rhaenyra wait to declare war had been inspiring and she now felt close to the grandchildren she had always privately scorned. Yes, that was supposed to make up for her dead children. I found this sudden change in the last episode of Season One weird until I analyzed it a bit deeper.
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To rephrase, Alicent really made a mistake by keeping Rhaenys imprisoned, and then invoking the memory of her claim. Because I think that's why she backs Rhaenyra. She decides in that scene that she neither trusts nor respects Alicent, so might as well hear Rhaenyra's offer. When Rhaenyra is offered the chance to concede in favor of a man and she's considering doing so to keep the peace, I think Rhaenys had a very personal reaction of "No. Not again. Not this time." Plus, the only family she has left are betrothed to Rhaenyra's sons, it's not that hard. Baela and Rhaena seem very loyal to Daemon and Rhaenyra as well as the Strong Boys and would never leave their side. But the conversation between her and Alicent was what really did it for her. And I think this conversation reminds Rhaenys of how over the years her ambition has become a sort of joke "the queen who never was" is seen as "the woman who really thought this world would let her be queen?!" Alicent basically says, "Yeah, you were the better fit but we both know that doesn't matter." And I think Rhaenys wants that to matter. Going into episode 10, more than making sure Rhaenyra "can" rule, I think Rhaenys is looking for her past self in Rhaenyra - if she had been given the chance. For Alicent, she can't recognize how the system has made her and her family unsafe. She doesn't see her abuse at the hands of men as abuse. To her that's just how it is. And the less she resists, the more "space" she has been given. Listen to her father and she becomes queen or take power for her son and her children will live and prosper. She also has learned to move within this system to make room for herself to have power. And that's what she argues to Rhaenys — women can't be "in" power but they can guide men who have power. Which is baloney because while Alicent argued women can guide men, Rhaenys knows even when that is true it will always be men who have the option to listen or not. Just as Corlys will listen to her advice but still make his own choice. Furthermore, I Rhaenys wasn't surprised by the usurpation - unlike Rhaenyra, she saw it coming from a mile away, she spoke of "knives" when Laenor and Rhaenyra were betrothed - but she knows it's wrong. Oaths were sworn. Her cousin had his views. She was never going to support Aegon.

The show doesn't directly state it, but for Rhaenys this was personal. This is about her trying to fix the past and live out her fantasy through Rhaenyra (and I could be wrong but I think Jaehaerys' decision to pass over Rhaenys were heavily influenced by the political landscape, the societal norms regarding gender, and his desire to maintain stability within the realm. While the Great Council's decision to choose Viserys as heir over her is definitely a combo of her gender and Corlys. Despite loving her, Corlys was openly ambitious and clearly sought to use his marriage to Rhaenys and his wealth to get as much power as he could and it's commonly known Jaehaerys disliked him because of it so I can definitely imagine that it turned off a lot of lords and they saw her as nothing more than a pawn of Corlys. Either that or those Andal lords just wanted a weak and more malleable monarch which is what Viserys proved to be). In the season one finale, she probably didn't see Rhaenyra as a great leader, but she sees someone who can be made into one and someone who wants war a hell of a lot less than the Greens do, considering they made the antagonistic move of crowning Aegon and started to kill people. And she regrets not fighting for her claim and now wants to rectify that mistake. Furthermore, you support the side that will likely give you the most...she gets absolutely nothing by supporting the Greens but if she supports the Blacks her family becomes the second most powerful family, her husband becomes hand of the king and her 'grandchildren' become the royal family. And in the future, people will remember that the sons and daughters of House Velaryon, the grandchildren and great-grandchildren of Rhaenys were the next monarchs. Yeah, it's still a bit confusing for me to be able to completely understand and divulge all the reasoning behind Rhaenys' actions and why she still chose to side with Rhaenyra in the end. Because the show and its writers have made the story a little bit too whitewashed for my taste (especially when they decided to eliminate interesting characters like Nettles and Mushroom while forcing the viewers to watch arguably the most boring and watered-down characters in the GOT franchise. I hope that Adara meets those two characters in this fic. Along with Corlys' sons and the show version of Hugh Hammer). Anyway, it'll be interesting to see what role the Queen Who Never Was plays once Adara takes over since they'd make a great team (apart from Nettles, Daeron and Aemond, of course) after the Winterchild and the Targaryens officially come to a mutual agreement.

P.S. What do you think, Firewillreign?

 
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The easiest explanation is that Asshai was not only part of the Great Empire, but its capital. The largest and greatest empire that existed before the Long Night. The city is right next to the Shadow Lands which is where the first dragons are said to have originally come from. Also, the Valyrians absolutely, positively did not build the fused stone structure on Battle Isle, because it was found there by the first First Men to arrive there, which was before the Long Night and thus centuries or millennia before Valyria ever existed. Thus, we know that sorcerers with the ability to control dragon fire and shape stone in the way Valyrians later did existed before Valyria, and came to Westeros. The only other pre-Valyrian fused stone structure we know of is the Five Forts, which is squarely in the middle of the Great Empire of the Dawn's supposed borders. Then we have Daenerys' dream of the gemstone emperors all the way back in book one...That's just scratching the surface. Anyhow, here are several interconnected theories about the COTF, the Long Night, the GEotD, the First Men and Valyria that I consider somewhat plausible:

So, there are many fans that believe that the Valyrians and the GEotD are the same people. That the Great Empire was the first empire created by the dragonlords (though they may not have had dragons and "only" had their extraordinary power through blood magic back then). This sets up sort of a cycle. They create an empire through the power of their sacrilegious blood magic, but this in the end also creates a cataclysm (The Long Night) that destroys their empire. The survivors move west and create a new empire (Valyria) through the power of their sacrilegious blood magic, but this in the end also creates a cataclysm (The Doom) that destroys their empire. Then the survivors move west and create a new empire (The Seven Kingdoms).

Some believe Dany is told by Quaithe to go to Asshai because to learn more about where her oldest ancestors came from (pre-Valyria). Hence the dream with the Gemstone Emperors. Therefore, this gives us the readers some reason to suspect that Valyrians were dragonlords that originally came from GEotD and Asshai.

Beyond that, there is also the possibility that the Daynes are descended from the original dragonlords hence the Valyrian traits they sometimes possess. It would also explain why their sword is different from Valyrian steel blades though just as magical. I'd like to do more research into all of this though. Whenever I discover something new, I feel like I have to go through the books again. Sometimes a word or a passage takes on a different meaning when you know what you're looking for.
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Anyway, the dragonlords of the old Freehold were skilled in sorcery, but they and Old Valyria are long gone, their secrets lost to the Doom. However, House Targaryen and their dragons survived, though not retaining the ways of Old Valyria. Much was lost in the Century of Blood, and what remained vanished as Targaryens took the Seven Kingdoms. Queen Visenya was the last true Valyrian dragonlord, always upheld Old Valyria's beliefs, values and customs while her brother-husband Aegon clearly didn't. Also, she might have hidden and locked away all of House Targaryen's magical artifacts like the glass candles and grimoires at Dragonstone before she died. After her, many of the Targs that followed were more akin to Valyrian-colored Andals, with their dragon-riding heritage fading into history as the Targaryens began to embrace Andal customs, assimilating the last family of once-mighty dragonlords into the rigid yet predominant culture of the land.
"I found one account of the Long Night that spoke of the last hero slaying Others with a blade of dragonsteel. Supposedly they could not stand against it."

"Dragonsteel?" Jon frowned. "Valyrian steel?"

"That was my first thought as well."

– Samwell I, A Feast for Crows (AFFC)
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In the lore of George R.R. Martin's "A Song of Ice and Fire" series, dragonsteel and Valyrian steel are often discussed in relation to their unique properties and origins. Here's a breakdown of the concepts:
  1. Dragonsteel: This term is sometimes used to refer to the metal associated with dragons or the Targaryens. In some interpretations, it can be considered a precursor to or a related form of Valyrian steel, possibly made using dragonfire or involving some ancient techniques known to the Valyrians.
  2. Valyrian Steel: This is a highly coveted and magical metal forged by the Valyrians, known for its sharpness, strength, and ability to kill White Walkers. The process of making Valyrian steel was a closely guarded secret of the Valyrian Freehold.
  3. Origins and Timeline: The distinction between dragonsteel and Valyrian steel can suggest that while they might share similarities, they are not necessarily identical. Dragonsteel could refer to a type of metal or forging technique used before the rise of the Valyrian civilization, possibly by the ancestors of the Targaryens or other cultures familiar with dragons. In the ASOIAF, Sam Tarly finds a line in a book suggesting that "dragonsteel" can kill Others, and he and Jon Snow hit on the idea that "dragonsteel" is the same as (or behaves the same as) Valyrian steel. However, it is commonly known or believed that Valyria didn't exist yet during the Long Night.
  4. Cultural Context: The Targaryens, who descended from the ancient Valyrians, may have had access to dragonsteel due to their connection with dragons, even before the height of Valyrian civilization. This connection could imply that dragonsteel was a separate entity that eventually evolved into what we now know as Valyrian steel.
In summary, while dragonsteel and Valyrian steel may share characteristics, their origins and the methods of their creation could differ, allowing for dragonsteel to exist prior to the rise of Valyria. This is why I think that either the Children of the Forest or some other forgotten race (probably the surviving inhabitants of the Great Empire of the Dawn) taught the Valyrians their craft such as how to bond with their dragons by the volcanoes of the Fourteen Flames through blood magic and how to magically create the spell-forged metal that is now famously known as Valyrian steel.
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The Last Hero supposedly fought the Others with "dragonsteel," and the show seems to confirm that dragonsteel and Valyrian steel are comparable. It's unclear if they really are the same exact thing, or if they have similar properties (spells, forging method, materials, etc.) that make them behave the same way. If dragonfire is involved, then it can just be because dragons at one time were all over the world, not just in Valyria. If anything, it could suggest that there were people (or beings) with Valyrians' knowledge and skills around thousands of years before Valyria. If dragonfire is necessary to make dragonsteel (not a given; dragonglass is not made from dragons), then it follows that dragons at some point were tamed by someone pre-Valyria, since you can't exactly temper metal with a dragon's fire if the dragon is feral. This is also why I've felt a little disappointed and found it weird about what GRRM long ago said concerning that cancelled HBO prequel spinoff Bloodmoon. In 2018, Martin gave a brief comment about the Long Night prequel (during an interview with Entertainment Weekly), in which he directly confirmed what was already obvious from the setting: House Targaryen is not in the Long Night prequel, nor is their original civilization of dragon-lords, the old Valyrian Freehold. There are no dragons or dragon-riders in the Long Night. As Martin said: "Westeros is a very different place. There's no King's Landing. There's no Iron Throne. There are no Targaryens — Valyria has hardly begun to rise yet with its dragons and the great empire that it built. We're dealing with a different and older world and hopefully that will be part of the fun of the series. Then he later stated more clearly, "It's set thousands of years before Game of Thrones. King's Landing does not exist. The Iron Throne does not exist. There are no dragons there." Which makes me wonder where exactly were the dragons during the Age of Heroes or the Long Night for that matter? Since, the Targaryens and other families like the Daynes are somehow hinted to share a mystical—and possibly genetic—connection to the Gemstone Emperors (mainly the last two: the Amethyst Empress and the Bloodstone Emperor because you just wrote that the tyrant was actually slain by one of his own descendants, Firewillreign) due to the prophecy and how the Long Night has affected the entire world (not just Westeros) because of magic itself and those like the Bloodstone Emperor who possibly broke some of its rules and tampered with it too much. Which inadvertently caused Planetos to fall out of balance, on a metaphysical scale, for a very long time.

Anyway, there really WERE dragons before Valyria - that's the key. Here are some clues:

The World of Ice and Fire book mentions that the shepherds that became the Dragonlords of Valyria learned their arts from a previous culture. The Great Empire of the Dawn ended with a mysterious doom as well, which left a massive ruined city (Asshai) and a place where people fear to go (the Shadow), which kind of mirrors what Valyria is like after their Doom. Then, there are several buildings made of fused stone throughout the world, which would take immense heat to fuse. These buildings are all very ancient ruins that have nothing to do with Valyria.

Here's another line of thinking, as well - it's suggested in the world of ice and fire book that dragons are a hybrid species, created when firewyrms are crossed with wyverns. It's mentioned that the Valyrians employed firemages to control the 14 flames (a volcanic hotspot). It's made clear by the late Targaryen dynasty that hatching dragon eggs is no simple task - likely requiring a combination of fire, blood, and magic. If all of those things are true, then it seems very unlikely to me that the dragon Urrax was naturally born into the world. If dragons existed at any point in history, it's because some people intentionally bred them into existence. This, combined with the statement that the Valyrians learned their arts from someone else, leads me to believe there HAD to be a culture of dragonlords prior to Valyria. Then again, who knows? These are just speculations and clues that the author has purposely teased us with.

There are a number of scenarios that this writer from Reddit had posted not so long ago that I've wanted to quote here:

https://www.reddit.com/r/asoiaf/comments/y6zr32/spoilers_published_the_empire_of_the_dawn_and/#
So here is where I want to present three scenarios in how the Empire of the Dawn would then be connected to Valyria.

Scenario One:

They aren't. The Empire's dragonriders all died out along with the collapse of the Empire during the Long Night. Perhaps the dragons died too, what little there was. At a similar time, the Valyrian shepherds found the Fourteen Flames and the dragons that resided there. They worked their own shit out and they did it quickly. An entire civilisation discovering dragons and immediately trying to tame them allowed them to advance significantly faster than the Empire of the Dawn. Whether through the natural process of dragon bonding or enhanced by magic (or both) they became closer to their dragons than the Empire ever did.

Scenario Two:
The Valyrian shepherds never existed. It's no coincidence Valyria was born as the Empire fell. Rather than stay and die, the last remains of the Empire's dragonriders fled the Long Night and found the Fourteen Flames, perhaps by accident. There they found an entire country populated by dragons. But most importantly, it was untouched by the Long Night. Whether by magic, the intense volcanic heat of the country or both, it was a safe haven away from a (possible) global apocalypse. Here they forgot their homeland and left it for dead. They stayed and dedicated their lives to growing and understanding their dragons and the magic they provided them. This would mean the Ashaii were somewhat right, the original dragonriders did fly to Valyria from the East, although not beyond the shadowlands, but from the Jade Sea. They vanished from history because they changed themselves entirely, their identity and their culture.

Scenario Three:

The Valyrian shepherds did exist. They stumbled upon the Fourteen Flames at a similar time that the Empire's dragonriders did, perhaps earlier, perhaps even trying to flee the Long Night as well. The dragonriders for whatever reason chose to imbue the sheepherders with their knowledge perhaps under the promise they would safeguard the world should the Long Night persist or return. This is when two possible outcomes occurred. Either the dragonriders assimilate with the shepherds through marriage/sex, thus passing their altered draconic genetics to the shepherds and their offspring, and becoming a new civilisation known as the Valyrians. Or the dragonriders departed the Fourteen Flames content with leaving the Known World for new horizons. In either case they vanished from history. In a similar case to Scenario Two, the Ashaii were half right, the original dragonriders came east, but not the Shadowlands, rather the Jade Sea, but this time they did teach the shepherds.

Bonus Scenario:

Same as the first but dragons were not native to the Fourteen Flames. The empire's dragonriders flew to the Fourteen but they died there, leaving behind their dragons for the Valyrians to discover. This would complement the theory that dragons originate from the "east' and were brought into the western part of the world. Alternatively, this concept could still work for Scenario Two and Three whereby the empire's dragonriders brought dragons to the Fourteen and then showed the Shepherds how to tame their spare dragons/newly hatched ones before either assimilating or leaving them with their own dragons before heading off.
TL;DR: The Empire of the Dawn is somehow connected to Valyria through either of these possible scenarios: The Empire's dragonriders discovered the Fourteen Flames during the Long Night and established the Valyrian Freehold, the Empire's dragonriders taught the shepherds residing in the Fourteen Flames how to tame dragons either by assimilating with them or through shared magical knowledge before leaving the Known World, or the Valyrians are simply a repetition in history whereby the Empire's dragonriders were some of many to tame dragons before dying out at a similar time that the Valyrian shepherds discovered dragons in the Fourteen Flames.
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Also, I'm personally very intrigued by a couple other hints about the Great Empire of the Dawn:

It's implied that the original base of the High Tower in Oldtown (which is on 'Battle Isle' and made of fused stone) was built as part of a colonizing effort/trade outpost for the Great Empire of the Dawn. There have been some theories that the Hightowers may actually be an old GEotD family. Because the Great Empire is the only civilization that we know of that was old enough to be able to build an outpost like Oldtown, and it's the only civilization before Valyria that could build the fused stone base of the Hightower. If this is true, it would mean that the empire crossed the Sunset Sea. Because it's never been confirmed where in Essos that the First Men originally came from before they sailed to Westeros's shores. And it's already likely that Lann the Clever, with his gold hair and emerald eyes, was from that group. Many believe the Daynes were part of a Great Empire colony as well, and their "Valyrian" look is coincidental because they're both likely offspring from the Great Empire. Again, this is all just speculation. We don't know whether or not the last two books—The Winds of Winter and A Dream of Spring—will ever reveal the truth behind all these old stories and events that I've just mentioned.

Later in this story, I bet that Daeron might wield a sword that's made of Valyrian steel or dragonsteel depending on whether there are any secret or hidden vaults underneath the Hightower or in Dragonstone. And that Adara will probably wear magical armor as well as wield a magic spear or sword made of ice after she slays an Other.
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P.S. By the way, Firewillreign? Have you ever watch or played GRRM's video game 🎮 Elden Ring? Like it is theoretically possible that after the battle between ice and fire is over that Daeron and Adara are maybe (like how Daenerys and Bran has often been implied to be, in the books) the ones ordained to break the same old cycle which the world of Planetos has repeatedly been stuck in for many millenniums, and usher in a new age after the Enemy has been finally defeated. Anyways, I think these are the theories that I'd found relevant and put together in this post.

 
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"No friend ever served me, and no enemy ever wrong-ed me, whom I have not repaid in full." — Sulla
"We cannot enter into alliances until we are acquainted with the designs ♟️ of our neighbors." - Sun Tzu, The Art of War.
"When a warlike prince🤴attacks a powerful state, his generalship🪖shows itself in preventing the🎯concentration of the enemy's forces. He overawes 😱🐉his opponents, and their allies are prevented from joining against him." - Sun Tzu, The Art of War.
"Hence he🤴does not strive to ally himself with all and sundry, nor does he foster the power of other states. He carries out his own secret designs ♟️ , keeping his antagonists in awe. Thus he is able to capture their cities and overthrow their kingdoms." — Sun Tzu, The Art of War.
"When you are facing troubles or enemies, turn a large problem into small, eminently defeatable parts 🧮." — Robert Greene, The 33 Strategies of War.

In the near future, Adara the Winterchild and her ice dragon Frostsinger will deal ruthlessly with the Triarchy's fleet, sending a clear message to Westeros and Essos. The Ironborn, Dornish, and Three Daughters may take advantage of the situation as Westeros prepares for war against the Others, not prioritizing defense against the threat or cooperating with the Iron Throne. The Triarchy will start with minor raids but escalate to targeting major ports when Adara and the Targs are distracted. Adara, indifferent to political niceties, will eliminate pirates, bandits, and slavers with her dragon's power. Basically, anyone who gets in her way. She may form an alliance with Braavos for logistical support against the Others (with Corlys' aid, of course. Since the Sea Snake himself is the richest man in Westeros and is also likely one of the most well-connected businessmen in the known world) at some point as well.
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"Divide their minds 🧠♟️ in order to conquer them." - Robert Greene, The 33 Strategies of War.
"Divide and conquer." - Julius Caesar

As I've said before, Adara needs more allies in order to consolidate the position of power that the Three-Eyed Raven has maneuvered her into. Without the House of the Dragon, I doubt that any of the lords of Westeros will willingly follow her commands. So, she must prevent the Targaryens from actually killing each other and mend the rift between them by any means necessary. Because one half of the realm follows the supposed cause of King Aegon II while the other half supports Queen Rhaenyra. While all the rest still appear to be neutral (for now). Because House Targaryen are the royal family and the royal family are, technically speaking, the symbolic and legal representation of the Iron Throne: a imperial institution that supposedly meant to govern and control the laws of this vast realm that Aegon the Conqueror formed by dragonfire. Therefore, letting the Targaryens fight each other is the same as allowing the realm tear itself apart. A civil war would be a waste of too much irretrievable time, manpower and resources. All of which should be truly spent in preparation for the true war that's coming in a year's time.

Anyways, Westerosi lords are a prickly and bloodthirsty bunch so maybe a good way of averting the war without averting the war is by aiming it at more acceptable targets across the pond such as the Triarchy for example. I think that the Winterchild should first scare all the stuckup nobles into compliance then assemble them all for a full-scale offensive against the Three Whores after the Triarchy fleet has been sent to destroy the Velaryon fleet and sack Driftmark gets obliterated by Frostsinger. Which will leave the three city-states severely weakened and vulnerable. Just like in the canon, they'll easily turn on each other. Who knows? Maybe they can use Johanna Swann sow further discord and takeover Lys as a client state (the divide and rule strategy is often applied in the arenas of politics and sociology. In this strategy, one power breaks another power into smaller, more manageable pieces, and then takes control of those pieces one by one. It generally takes a very strong power to implement such a strategy. In order to successfully break up another power or government, the conqueror must have access to strong political, military, and economic machines. Furthermore, in order to maintain power and influence, large governments will often work to keep smaller powers and governments from uniting. In fact, this use of the principles within the divide and conquer strategy is most common. It is much easier to prevent small powers from linking forces than to break them apart once they have aligned. Of course, "Divide ut regnes" and "Divide et impera" are two related but distinct political strategies. Even though, the principles and end goals of both are one and the same.

"Divide ut regnes" translates to "Divide in order to rule." This strategy involves deliberately creating divisions and discord among a population in order to maintain power and control over them. The ruler intentionally sows discord and conflict between different factions or groups, preventing them from uniting against the ruler.

In contrast, "Divide et impera" translates to "Divide and conquer." This refers to a strategy of dividing one's opponents or enemies in order to defeat them more easily. The ruler or general identifies and exploits existing divisions within the opposing side, then uses those divisions to weaken and overcome the opposition.

The key distinction is that "divide ut regnes" is about a ruler creating divisions for the purpose of maintaining their own power, while "divide et impera" is about a ruler taking advantage of existing divisions to gain an advantage over an opponent. Both strategies involve the principle of divide and rule, but with slightly different motivations and applications.

In layman's terms, Divide et impera is more of a battlefield stratagem, divide the enemies forces in order to defeat them more easily. This can mean by psychological warfare, deteriorating the morale of the enemy or turning them against one another; or actually causing them to physically divide their forces, like how Robb Stark was able to capture the Kingslayer in the Battle of the Whispering Wood.

Divide ut regnes, on the other hand, is more of a governing tactic. That is the principle of turning a population against one another in order to make them easier to control. For example, the Romans would regularly relocate different tribes and ethnicities so that groups with longstanding grudges would be placed in proximity of one another. Their constant fighting between each other ensured they never collaborated to overthrow Roman rule
) which could be easy because these slavocrats are all a bunch of corrupt and greedy merchants who mainly hire pirates and mercenaries to protect their interests and do their dirty work. Although, the only person who would probably ever remember her existence is Mysaria if Adara and the Targaryens wanted to exact some payback by quickly attacking and looting the Triarchy on their home turf in the aftermath of such a likely scenario. Frostsinger can literally freeze and break their walls apart from afar with his ice breath. Or trap them all by encasing them in ice 🧊. The Rogares are an option to use for this strategy as well. But they aren't exactly trustworthy as canon has proven.

I suggest this since the rest of the Free Cities won't be able to say shit against this act of aggression from Westeros. Due to the fact, the Triarchy are the ones who committed the act of war first. Which gives Westeros a perfect excuse for a casus belli if you will. Besides, the cities of Tyrosh, Myr and Lys have so much vast wealth that Adara and the Targaryens can readily seize for themselves to largely replenish the royal treasury or spend to acquire more materials for the war effort against the Others. For instance, Myr monopolizes the glassmaking industry and in Game of Thrones, the COTF created dragonglass and used it to make daggers and arrowheads against the First Men and then later the wights. By the way, will dragonglass kill the ice zombies in this AU, Firewillreign, or no?
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"Rapidity 🏎️ is the essence of war: take advantage of the enemy's unreadiness, make your way by un-expected routes, and attack unguarded spots 🎯." — Sun Tzu, The Art of War.
"In a world 🌎 in which many people are indecisive and overly cautious, the use of speed 🏎️ will bring you untold power ♟️ ." — Robert Greene, The 33♟️ Strategies of War.
"You must be slow in deliberation 🧠 ♟️ and swift ⚔️ in execution." — Napoleon Bonaparte

Also, if the Stepstones become a haven for pirates again. Then they should do an island hopping strategy (since the key idea of such a stratagem is to bypass heavily fortified enemy islands instead of trying to capture every island in sequence en route to a final target. Leapfrogging can help a military force reach its objectives quickly and with fewer losses by bypassing heavily defended areas. By keeping the enemy off balance and give the attacking force an advantage of surprise. Furthermore, this mobile strategy can reduce the number of lives lost by the attacking force. And it can isolate enemy strongholds, which can weaken the defenders through starvation and disease. For example, the Allies used leapfrogging, also known as island hopping, in the Pacific War against the Axis powers.

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(Allied island-hopping campaign 1943-1945:
Blue — Japanese-held territory Aug. 1945
Dark red — Allied territory)

The Allies would skip over heavily defended islands and instead focus on seizing lightly defended locations that would support their next advance. While the "island hopping" strategy in the Pacific theater of World War II is often associated with General Douglas MacArthur, the concept was not solely his creation, and it involved input from various military planners, with the Navy playing a key role in developing the strategy initially; however, MacArthur was the prominent Allied commander who heavily advocated for and implemented it during the Pacific campaign against Japan. The strategy involved bypassing heavily fortified Japanese islands and instead capturing strategically important, less defended islands to gradually advance towards Japan, essentially "leapfrogging" across the Pacific. Although, the Allied strategy in the Pacific theater during World War II, where they bypassed heavily fortified islands to reach key strategic points, is a prominent example of "leapfrogging" on a larger scale. "Leapfrogging" is also considered an example of mobile warfare, particularly in the context of military tactics where a force rapidly advances by bypassing enemy positions, similar to how you might "leapfrog" over obstacles on a battlefield, making it a dynamic and flexible strategy that relies on rapid movement and repositioning. Often used in infantry operations, where one unit moves forward while the other provides suppressing fire, then they switch roles, effectively "leapfrogging" over each other to reach the objective
) to reconquer them. Since, Adara and the Targs have dragons and with the help of the Velaryon fleet. They can actually make something like this work due to having more than enough airpower and seapower in their arsenal. Also, they can use wargs as scouts to gather intel and report enemy movements to pull this bounding overwatch stratagem off in a timely manner. Instead of engaging in another meaninglessly protracted yet fatal game of Whac-A-Mole that Corlys and Daemon had both gone through last time.

Concerning Adara's future alliances, I think it is safe to assume that eventually, sooner or later, none of Alicent's kids will ever obey the will of their mom and grandsire anymore based on what they will all actually discover in the near future. None of them are as stupid as people think them to be. Aegon, Aemond, Daeron and Helaena had always known that Otto and House Hightower by extension has been using them as pawns this entire time to secure their hold on the throne. In regards to the Blacks. . .it won't be boring to say the least. Daemon and Rhaenyra's children are loyal to their parents but they aren't blind to their faults. I'm not sure how Luke can even convince his brothers and cousins that the enmity between them and Alicent's sons is meaningless in the face of the greatest evil their world has ever known but I'm sure that Adara and the Children of the Forest will be able to finish that particular task just fine in the next dozen chapters or so.
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"The line between disorder 🌪️ and order ⚖️ lies in logistics." — Sun Tzu, The Art of War.
"Bitter experience in war ♟️⚔️ has taught the maxim that the art of war is the art of the logistically feasible." — ADM Hyman Rickover, USN.
"Logistics is the practical art of moving armies🪖." – General Antoine Henri Jomini, The Art of War.
"Logistics 🌾comprises the means and arrangements which work out the plans of strategy🗺️♟️and tactics. Strategy ♟️ decides where to act, logistics brings the troops to this point." — General Antoine Henri Jomini, The Art of War.
"You will not find it difficult to prove that♟️⚔️battles, campaigns, and even wars have been won 🏆 or lost primarily because of logistics." — Dwight Eisenhower

Anyway, she needs to establish her own war council. A war council that'll likely include all the Targaryens. Furthermore, she must gain street cred and political capital through ties to major power players such as the Queen Who Never Was and the Sea Snake. Since, they both are wiser and far more politically cunning than Daemon and Rhaenyra to be honest. Cregan is definitely another person that Adara would probably listen to but he'll come later in this story (In regards to the Wolf of Winterfell, I am convinced Cregan was more political than honorable. He dragged his feet…so did Lady Jeyne Arryn…because it benefited him to wait, and to leave when it was convenient for him, with a small but fresh force as was convenient for him, and swooped in and act like Vespasian at the end of the Year of the Four Emperors, clean house, find a woman, and go home to make some heirs for himself). While Jeyne Arryn is kinda debatable because she seems loyal to her cousin but I also think the real reason why she supports Rhaenyra is that if she supported the Greens then that would've ultimately undermine her overall position as a female ruler, politically speaking. In short, Adara needs the support and counsel of people whom she can capably rely on to help take care of the logistics and geopolitics of the war she has been tasked to wage. People who are very rich, popular, and politically influential but also are intimately aware of the hard-earned truths gained through painful experiences in real combat scenarios. Like Corlys Velaryon for example. Harsh lessons that's learned from war have shown men like him that the most crucial aspect of military strategy is not just tactical prowess, but the ability to maintain a reliable supply chain and logistical support, essentially stating that a successful military operation must be "logistically feasible" above all else. War is like a chess game. But instead of pawns and kings, commanders move supplies and troops 🪖 . Logistics decides what moves are even possible.

Anyhow, Corlys and Rhaenys are the closest thing we have to Tywin and Joanna in this era. They were a power couple who were brilliant, powerful and well-equipped to rule over Westeros. Rhaenys is patient, observant, and wise. In House of the Dragon, the Queen Who Never Was is a better politician than Rhaenyra because she's able to see people and their motivations for what they are, and she's not afraid to call them out. Also, Rhaenys has proven to be perfectly capable of ruling Driftmark in her husband's absence. So, she's a diligent and responsible administrator too. And she did everything that she ably could to keep the peace like a real Protector of the Realm should. Corlys also has a reputation, with his experience and aptitude in naval combat earning him the moniker "Sea Snake." And because he is well-known as the best sailor and explorer in Westeros. Plus, he's made dealings with practically everybody of import from across the known world. Those two will probably be more willing to trust and support Adara in all her endeavors to unite the realm once they are firmly convinced that she really has little to no interest in the throne that their beloved grandchildren are supposed to inherit. As for Alicent and Otto, she won't trust them as far as she can throw them and the same goes for Rhaenyra and Daemon.
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"If the intellectual🧠ability of kings were exerted to the same degree in peace 🕊️ as in war 🐉 , human affairs would be more orderly and settled." — Sallust
"When Princes 🤴 devote themselves rather to 🍷🍇pleasure than to arms, they lose their dominions🏰." - Niccolò Machiavelli, The Prince.

All in all, Viserys relied too much on the advice and expertise of Otto. The Sea Snake had warned King Viserys about the Triarchy, but Viserys was being influenced by House Hightower's interests rather than the realm's. Since Otto advised Viserys to ignore Corlys' concerns because Otto truly wasn't serving the interests of the realm at that point. He was serving the interests of his family: House Hightower who didn't want to House Velaryon continue to be so rich and successful. In other words, the Hightowers might have actually stood to benefit from trade through the Stepstones being blocked because merchants wanting to sell their goods in Westeros would sail to Oldtown instead of Kings Landing, unless the Dornish could prevent it. King's Landing, the Velaryons, the Vale, the North and the Targaryans would lose significant trade incomes. So, it can be seen as opportunism on the Hightowers' part. Either weakening the Targaryans and/or strengthening themselves. And Viserys was too stupid and lazy to realize this. Anyone with a measure of wisdom would know the dangers of letting the Stepstones fall in the hands of the Triarchy but the pacifistic fool preferred to listen to the snake in his ear, urging caution when Driftmark and King's Landing were suffering heavy loss with the tolls and the loss of ships in the Stepstones. So, this is exactly why Show Rhaenyra's concerns about the Triarchy were valid, but the lack of action on Viserys and the Small Council's part led to repeated attacks. Controlling the Stepstones would secure trade routes and maritime trade with the Free Cities. War may be expensive, but preventing attacks and fortifying the area would be more cost-effective in the long run. In other words, the Triarchy are another thorn that Adara and Frostsinger must personally deal with in the future. Permanently.
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P.S. Again, these are all just ideas that I'm simply throwing out, Firewillreign. You are the one who decides how the story will go, sequentially speaking. Some of the links entail some descriptive info about naval warfare and the tactics that sailors on war galleys and other vessels used to employ to attack or defend against enemy ships. Maybe you use the POV of either Alyn, Corlys or some Velaryon soldier to detail what happens before, during and after the battle where Adara and Frostsinger literally demolish either the Ironborn or Triarchy fleet in fell swoop. Since, the Velaryon fleet are going to be the Targaryens' second biggest military asset after their dragons in this story, of course (because I can't really say much about the Redwynes and the Lannisters depending on where their loyalties will later lie in the event that Adara finally succeeds in bringing the Targs, both Blacks and Greens, together). Or if the Triarchy decide to be a nuisance by attacking anywhere else on the eastern front of Westeros. Like Tarth, for instance.

https://bjpcjp.github.io/pdfs/behavior/33-laws/33-laws-17-defeat-detail.pdf
https://awoiaf.westeros.org/index.php/Watercraft
https://www.reddit.com/r/asoiaf/comments/dm09gr/spoilers_extended_who_was_right_corlys_velaryon/
https://screenrant.com/house-of-the-dragon-corlys-velaryon-rhaenyra-targaryen-hand-queen/
https://collider.com/house-of-the-dragon-battle-of-the-gullet-explained/
https://collider.com/house-of-the-dragon-corlys-rhaenys-are-a-healthy-couple-velaryon/
https://collider.com/house-of-the-dragon-season-2-rhaenys-corlys/
https://www.quora.com/What-is-the-real-world-equivalent-of-the-Iron-Bank-ASOIAF
https://historicalanalysisofasoiaf....ng-empire-building-a-merchant-fleet-70-90-ac/
https://www.quora.com/Are-there-any...he-Iron-Bank-of-Braavos-or-is-it-the-only-one
https://hawkstower.wordpress.com/20...e-secret-city-braavos-and-venetian-parallels/
https://atlasoficeandfireblog.wordpress.com/2017/08/20/geographic-map-15-the-free-cities/
https://awoiaf.westeros.org/index.php/Daughters'_War
https://awoiaf.westeros.org/index.php/Johanna_Swann
https://awoiaf.westeros.org/index.php/House_Rogare
https://awoiaf.westeros.org/index.php/Lysandro_Rogare
https://awoiaf.westeros.org/index.php/Larra_Rogare
https://awoiaf.westeros.org/index.php/Lysaro_Rogare
https://awoiaf.westeros.org/index.php/Moredo_Rogare
https://awoiaf.westeros.org/index.php/Roggerio_Rogare
https://www.tumblr.com/asoiafuniversity/153480097404/maester-steven-regarding-the-free-cities-how-do
https://awoiaf.westeros.org/index.php/Free_Cities
 
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