Dungeon Delver Quest (Original Fantasy... again)

Ah. I'd misunderstood. Yeah, 200 shards over three days is fair.

It's a judgement call. On the other hand, wanting to get the value of the chunk to be fairer is one of the big reasons for wanting to wait it until the end of the day - when "number of shards each person has" won't constrain the prices quite so badly - probably leading to a somewhat fairer exchange rate. For where to set the cap? Well, we've had two people weighing in on it. One of them started out at 200, and has been convinced to admit that 50 might be acceptable as a bare minimum, just to allow for some basis of discussion. The other started out at 20, has been argued up to 30, and still thinks that 50 looks pretty high but is willing to accept that there might be reasonable arguments for it. If you want to go with the "I don't want to think" answer, then 50 is the classic "compromise means no one gets what they want" point between those two voices. Otherwise, feel free to weigh in. Your own logic would be welcome.

Huh. Yeah - I guess I'd buy the cloak as being worth about a third of the ring, overall - at least close enough not to argue over it. Your vote didn't make that entirely clear, though.

 

OK, going back to reviewing the chunk bidding/valuation issue. I think I've settled it in my own head.


Basically, the shard cap for the chunk is how much we're willing to give up in order to get a B skill/job.

We can put the bare minimum value at 10 shards — the cost of D to C. Going from C to B cannot be less valuable than that. In terms of dice, they're the same: +2 dice for C, and +2 dice for B, and of course both increments will also increase the actions available under each skill.

One would expect it to be worth at least 20 shards (continuing the doubling rate of earlier ranks). In that case, it's worth taking two separate skills from D to C, or raising a skill from locked to C.

However C skill is already the equivalent of "lifetime mastery". Compared in terms of dice, B would be 50% more than a lifetime's mastery. That still works out to 10 shards, though (50% of 5+5+10). In terms of capability, though, and considering the advantage of simply breaking past the cap of a lifetime's mastery, I would put them at least on par. Thus, minimum value is raised from 10 shards to 20 shards.

Lifetime effort doesn't really correlate in the current system, though. A single person working solo in the cheapest spawner rooms could pick up 20 shards in a day. They'd also never be able to take out an elite to get a chunk. Our trip yesterday with Linnea and Shadow got us 58 shards (so ~175 total for 3 party members).

Suppose we assume 4 party members can get just a small bit more than that, for 200 total. That's 50 shards per day per member. If you could get 1 chunk per day, that's 4 days to be sure everyone had 1 chunk, while accumulating 200 shards. Working solo, we could probably manage 35-40 shards per day without much issue (depending on where we went, and how much competition, and how much walking around was needed). That means a group gains us value on the order of 40 to 60 shards per chunk reward.

Are you willing to trade the entirety of that gain for the chunk? Is a single chunk worth trading enough shards to unlock 10 separate skills, or take two or three skills from locked to C? And in dice terms, +1 quality for equipment is worth +2 dice from skill.

Overall, I'd put the minimum value of a chunk at 20 shards. I probably wouldn't put it higher than 40 shards, though. At least, not if you can hunt them yourself. On the open market outside, the price would go up significantly because the demand includes people who are not capable of acquiring the chunks on their own (as demonstrated by the bloodstains in this very room), or just have a massive surplus due to already capping skills.

If we just walked outside and sold it, I would not be surprised if we could pull down 200 shards for it. For example, I'm sure the twins could easily afford to pay that much. Likewise, anyone building up a huge stockpile of shards because they've already capped their skills would readily spend it on higher-level fragments.

However for a group like ours, the value is in the differential gain of the group as a whole, vs hunting solo or in a smaller group that is not capable of killing elites as easily. And that difference is much smaller than the open market value. The only caveat is that the group has to be likely to work together on at least a semi-regular basis.

The next question, is what is the value of giving up the shard to one of the other party members? Basically, if they bid 20/30/40 for it, our share would be 7/10/13 shards, while also not having paid for the chunk.

We're starting at 20+11 shards (including the loot pool split), 31 total. If we paid 30 for it, we'd be at 1. If we let someone else pay 30 for it, we'd be at 41. So, from our personal perspective, acquiring the chunk would cost us 40 shards. That's enough to completely rank up 2 skills, and is the upper limit of the value I'd allow for the chunk to have.

That differential cost would be 27 at a bid of 20, 40 at a bid of 30, and 53 at a bid of 40. Overall, I think I'd put the upper limit on what I'd bid at 24 (to allow an even split among 3 other party members), giving a total personal cost of 32.

30 shards is pretty significant in unlocking and raising skills. It would get us Adamant Body to C, and unlock Warrior's Intent, Mountain Fury, and Blaze. Getting a skill to B is definitely valuable, but it's not worth sacrificing that much in other development.

So my conclusion is that I'll keep the 20 shards in the vote (though it should really be 21; I'll change my vote for that), and the other three can decide whether they're ready to start pushing for rank B stuff, or if there's more value for them to continue leveling up their existing skills.

I don't expect Linnea to be bidding high for it, since she still needs to level up her job, which means she'll be unlocking a ton of skills shortly, and thus has more valuable use for the shards.

Lona sounds like she has lots of magic skills to work on already, as well. She's also the one that seems most likely to get the ring, out of the three, so she may end up spending her shards on that and not have much to bid on the chunk with.

Du, I'm not sure about. Given his specialization, he may find the possibility of hitting rank B to be very valuable, and if he doesn't get the ring, he may end up with a sufficient surplus of shards to bid with. Though if he does outbid us, that's just more shards for us to splurge with.


So that's my overall conclusion. A soft max of 21 shards, and a cap of 24 shards, when bidding in a group of 4. Alternatively, shout for bids in the campsite and try to pick up 150-200 shards — 40-50 shards each, so that each person gains more than it would have cost them to get the chunk internally.

 

Your analysis looks like it utterly ignores the issue of hitting shardmax. Sure, in terms of what it gets us now it's worth about 20 - but after about a day or three of hunting in which we *don't* trade in all our shards for a chunk we'll have maxxed all of the skills we have that really matter, while we'll still be hungry for chunks. It doesn't mean that shards will be useless at that point - we'll still be able to buy potions, max weapon skills for later, possibly buy Quality 2 weapons for those weapon skills and so forth - but the usefulness goes way down. Chunks, on the other hand, are still going to be quite valuable at that point. It'll take quite some time to get all of the really useful stuff up to B.

At least, I didn't see anywhere in there that you took note of this. Sure, 30 shards is worth more than a chunk in terms of overall power at the moment - but is 130 shards worth more than a chunk and 100?

 

+votes to give Chunk to the Healer+

 

Depends on if you're talking open market prices, or marginal prices while farming, where you're putting in time and participation in place of shards.

Well, yeah. We're not trading in futures.

Then we start raising our bid as chunks become more and more valuable to us, and we have more shards to spare. Start looking on the open market, in addition to whatever we can farm up.

 

That first question, I wasn't talking either one. I was talking overall personal power after the shards and chunks were spent.

It's highly unlikely that chunks will be sold on the open market in any quantity, at least not until everyone's a *lot* further into the tower. Those with enough power to claim the things will already be ready to use them... and we are trading in futures in a way. If grabbing the chunk now means we're somewhat weaker for tomorrow and the next day, but then stronger for the forseeable future after that, it's worth grabbing the chunk. Yes, immediate power is valuable, but it's not so critical that we can't pay at least a little attention to long-term value.

Similarly, with so few being sold, and so many interested (particularly the crafters), we have basically no chance to buy any of them that might get sold. Outside of the tower, we can easily convert chunks to shards, but there is no way to convert the other way.

Basically, opportunities to acquire chunks are rare, and should be treated as such.

 

The problem with this reasoning is you need the skills being there to be unlocked. Let's take this specific example above: In four days, we'll have 200 more shards and 1 Chunk. In this case, we'd miss 20 shards to have all the skill of C rank Job to C rank. If we traded 50 shards for another chunk, however, we'd miss 70 shards for that. Assuming B-rank Job gets us another 3 skills, we'd miss 130 shards (the equivalent of 7 skills).

At first glance, it's easy to say '7 skills maxxed is worth much more than one skills to B rank', but in actuality there is at least 4 weapon skills that 'can wait', there is Brew/Drink too that might or might not want us to max them. More importantly, we'd need a minimum of another 4 days for our next chunk. This mean that, even in the worst case scenario of us still only getting 200 shards over 4 more days (and at the time we'd be fighting much stronger basic enemies), we'll actually have a surplus of 120 shards by the time we got our next chunk if we don't buy one.

There is also the big issue of Chunks getting rarer and rarer in the first floor. Chunks are only droppable by Elite/Bosses, and those do not respawn. This mean that "finding one a day" is something that cannot be guaranteed once all the groups begin hunting the Elite/Bosses.

In fact, I am expecting that if we don't hurry up, it will soon be very hard to find one boss every 2/3 days.

I'm guessing you mean 'Chunk', not shards?

Nitpicking, but if you meant me, I said from the start that 50 would be what is the minimum right now, with 100-200 possible very very quickly.

 

Current Tally.

Spoiler: Tally Results

Vote Tally : Dungeon Delver Quest (Original Fantasy... again) | Page 21 | Questionable Questing
##### NetTally 1.5.8

[X] For now let you equip the cloak. You're taking the most damage and this should help.
[X] Similarly let the mages decide who can make the most use of the ring at the moment.
[X] Regarding permanent distribution, let Linnea hold the chunk for now and decide what we're doing with everything after we're back near town.
[X] Divide the shards evenly.
No. of Votes: 6

Spoiler: Voters

Grosstoad
Arkatekt
Arkeus
Darkened
Koden
Seventeen

[X] Greatsword: I can't use it, or get any skill for it, and I don't think anyone else can either. Just sell for shards later?
[X] Ring: Ya'll fight it out.
[X] Cloak: It might be useful for the death knight fight, and other minor stuff. I wouldn't mind it, but it's not a huge deal if someone else wants it.
[X] Chunk: Arm-wrestle ya for it. Ah, but seriously, I'm willing to pay in shards for it. Go to whoever's willing to pay the most shards? (Up to 20)
No. of Votes: 3

Spoiler: Voters

Minion #Q
Nanimani
Pipeman

[X] Wrassle for it
No. of Votes: 1

Spoiler: Voters

LeoAbogos

[x] We each own an equal "stake" in each item dropped. Shards are distributed equally outright
-[x] Propose a veto bidding system for items, in shards. Whoever bids the most for an item gets to keep it, and pays that many shards into the pool to be split equally between everyone. If no one bids, it's salebait. If there's only one person interested, or it turns out that the winning bid is less than the stores will offer for it, its value gets changed to whatever the stores will pay for it. If anyone feels that the winning bid for an item is too low they may veto the auction for that item and instead treat it as a greater item
-[x] For greater items, items that are worth far more than the amount of shards available, we try to buy each other's stake in the item (this purchase cost could be an agreement that we give them our stake in the next chunk we get together and perhaps an agreement to farm a boss for it), if more than one person ends up owning stakes they are not willing to sell then the remaining individuals roll for it, with chance of victory based on how many stakes they own
-[x] bid 20 on the chunk, be willing to go up to 30
-[x] if you still have money left, bid 5 on cloak, be willing to go to 10.
No. of Votes: 1

Spoiler: Voters

mrttao

[X] Greatsword: I can't use it, or get any skill for it, and I don't think anyone else can either. Just sell for shards later?
[X] Ring: Ya'll fight it out.
[X] Cloak: It might be useful for the death knight fight, and other minor stuff. I wouldn't mind it, but it's not a huge deal if someone else wants it.
[X] Chunk: Arm-wrestle ya for it. Ah, but seriously, I'm willing to pay in shards for it. Go to whoever's willing to pay the most shards? (Up to 21)
No. of Votes: 1

Spoiler: Voters

Kinematics

[X] For now let you equip the cloak. You're taking the most damage and this should help.
[X] Similarly let the mages decide who can make the most use of the ring at the moment.
[X] Regarding permanent distribution, let Linnea hold the chunk for now and decide what we're doing with everything after we're back near town.
-[X] Suggest a sort of buy-from-the-pot system. Check out the prices from the merchants for each item. If no one wants it for that much, sell it for the shards. If only one person does, they can buy it from the group for that much. If more than one person does, whoever's willing to offer the most shards for it gets it. Then everyone splits the pot.
[X] For now, divide the shards evenly.
No. of Votes: 1

Spoiler: Voters

Sirrocco

Total No. of Voters: 13

 

Scarcity is the primary determinant of a chunk's approximate worth, not the absolute gain.

We will ultimately need to raise several skills to B+ to advance beyond a certain point in the tower effectively, as will everyone else.

Chunks are, especially early on, a finite resource by all indications. Shards are not. In the short term, more shards may very well be more valuable. In the long term we will be stuck on chunks and slabs, as the things that drop them do not respawn, and the accessible ones should rapidly get hunted down to nothing on every floor.

In terms of actual benefits of a B rank skill, the number of skills we can use in parallel is limited by practicality. We're not adding more than one base dice pool to our total rolls, so that alone decreases the value of every further raised skill dramatically. Every additional skill at a certain rank will decrease the value of future skill at that rank. As we're likely to only be able to get a limited number of skills/jobs to rank B or higher, we're going to get hit a lot less with decreasing marginal returns in the mid to long term.

The effort of acquiring a lot more shards is dramatically lower than the effort and risk in acquiring another chunk, and yet both are fundamentally necessary, while one is expected to get easier as time goes on and the other harder.

So yes, in the short term the analysis you put holds up, but it's not particularly viable in a longer or macro perspective at all.

Shards are farmable. The amount that people can farm will go up as time goes on, even if people just farm the same floor over and over again with increasing abilities. Thus, they can be expected to be highly inflationary. Later tiers of loot will cost dramatically more despite not really adding more value. Moreover, they rapidly start to lose value (the ability to raise skills) as people reach a superabundance of low level skills. The shard economy is thus, in the long term, pretty dubious and likely to reach high levels of inflation

Chunks and slabs are, by all appearances, most commonly drops from special non-respawning monsters. As such, the easier places to get chunks and slabs will vanish as time goes on, by contrast, as more adventurers reach higher levels of skill and the challenges we face get bigger, having access to higher ranked skills and jobs will become increasingly vital. Chunks and slabs are likely to be extremely deflationary. Even if the number of opportunities rises as we go up, the difficulty of those opportunities will likewise rise.

The big issue is not getting more farming tomorrow, but that tomorrow and the day after there will be less chunks around to find in areas we can handle than there were today. Not pushing everything we have on bid for the chunk is essentially arguing that a single day's worth of shard-investment is likely to add more than one chunk (which we obtain) to our future loot. I highly doubt this is the case.

Ultimately I don't think chunks and slabs will be conventionally buyable at all, and if they are for sale I'd expect astronomical prices in the long run, which would still be entirely worth it.

This collapses if higher levels introduce chunks on respawning enemies or through other farmable means, though I doubt that'll ever happen for slabs.

It may be possible to occasionally see chunks and slabs on the market, but I expect this would almost exclusively be auctions, auctions that will attract very competitive bidding which will only get more and more extravagant the longer we go on.

What we gain in not bidding high is A: a smaller chance at acquiring a chunk anyway and B: more immediate access to skills (A day or so ahead of where we could be) which may allow for more access to chunks and the like, but that's a complete gamble on being lucky enough to hunt down elites that other people haven't already found.

I'd happily push for paying any cost we can afford in shards to get chunks and/or slabs and call it a bargain.

 

Ah. Yep. Fixed. Thanks.

Ah. My mistake.

 

[X] For now let you equip the cloak. You're taking the most damage and this should help.
[X] Similarly let the mages decide who can make the most use of the ring at the moment.
[X] Regarding permanent distribution, let Linnea hold the chunk for now and decide what we're doing with everything after we're back near town.
[X] Divide the shards evenly.

Chunk will only get more valuable as time goes onon. Even if it is worse for our abilities in the short term I say we bid a good bitbut more than 20 shards. I think we should be willing to bid 60 or even higher. They do not respawn but are used up so there will always be reducing in number while the number of possible shards is unlimited.

 

Alright, can I get the count?

 

Spoiler: Tally Results

Vote Tally : Dungeon Delver Quest (Original Fantasy... again) | Page 21 | Questionable Questing
##### NetTally 1.5.8

[X] For now let you equip the cloak. You're taking the most damage and this should help.
[X] Similarly let the mages decide who can make the most use of the ring at the moment.
[X] Regarding permanent distribution, let Linnea hold the chunk for now and decide what we're doing with everything after we're back near town.
[X] Divide the shards evenly.
No. of Votes: 7

Spoiler: Voters

Grosstoad
Arkatekt
Arkeus
Darkened
john doe
Koden
Seventeen

[X] Greatsword: I can't use it, or get any skill for it, and I don't think anyone else can either. Just sell for shards later?
[X] Ring: Ya'll fight it out.
[X] Cloak: It might be useful for the death knight fight, and other minor stuff. I wouldn't mind it, but it's not a huge deal if someone else wants it.
[X] Chunk: Arm-wrestle ya for it. Ah, but seriously, I'm willing to pay in shards for it. Go to whoever's willing to pay the most shards? (Up to 20)
No. of Votes: 3

Spoiler: Voters

Minion #Q
Nanimani
Pipeman

[X] Wrassle for it
No. of Votes: 1

Spoiler: Voters

LeoAbogos

[x] We each own an equal "stake" in each item dropped. Shards are distributed equally outright
-[x] Propose a veto bidding system for items, in shards. Whoever bids the most for an item gets to keep it, and pays that many shards into the pool to be split equally between everyone. If no one bids, it's salebait. If there's only one person interested, or it turns out that the winning bid is less than the stores will offer for it, its value gets changed to whatever the stores will pay for it. If anyone feels that the winning bid for an item is too low they may veto the auction for that item and instead treat it as a greater item
-[x] For greater items, items that are worth far more than the amount of shards available, we try to buy each other's stake in the item (this purchase cost could be an agreement that we give them our stake in the next chunk we get together and perhaps an agreement to farm a boss for it), if more than one person ends up owning stakes they are not willing to sell then the remaining individuals roll for it, with chance of victory based on how many stakes they own
-[x] bid 20 on the chunk, be willing to go up to 30
-[x] if you still have money left, bid 5 on cloak, be willing to go to 10.
No. of Votes: 1

Spoiler: Voters

mrttao

[X] Greatsword: I can't use it, or get any skill for it, and I don't think anyone else can either. Just sell for shards later?
[X] Ring: Ya'll fight it out.
[X] Cloak: It might be useful for the death knight fight, and other minor stuff. I wouldn't mind it, but it's not a huge deal if someone else wants it.
[X] Chunk: Arm-wrestle ya for it. Ah, but seriously, I'm willing to pay in shards for it. Go to whoever's willing to pay the most shards? (Up to 21)
No. of Votes: 1

Spoiler: Voters

Kinematics

[X] For now let you equip the cloak. You're taking the most damage and this should help.
[X] Similarly let the mages decide who can make the most use of the ring at the moment.
[X] Regarding permanent distribution, let Linnea hold the chunk for now and decide what we're doing with everything after we're back near town.
-[X] Suggest a sort of buy-from-the-pot system. Check out the prices from the merchants for each item. If no one wants it for that much, sell it for the shards. If only one person does, they can buy it from the group for that much. If more than one person does, whoever's willing to offer the most shards for it gets it. Then everyone splits the pot.
[X] For now, divide the shards evenly.
No. of Votes: 1

Spoiler: Voters

Sirrocco

Total No. of Voters: 14

Will we also get a Dreamer update?

 

edit: Well, this is awkward...

Vote Tally : Dungeon Delver Quest (Original Fantasy... again) | Page 21 | Questionable Questing
##### NetTally 1.5.9

[X] For now let you equip the cloak. You're taking the most damage and this should help.
[X] Similarly let the mages decide who can make the most use of the ring at the moment.
[X] Regarding permanent distribution, let Linnea hold the chunk for now and decide what we're doing with everything after we're back near town.
[X] Divide the shards evenly.
No. of Votes: 7

Spoiler: Voters

Grosstoad
Arkatekt
Arkeus
Darkened
john doe
Koden
Seventeen

[X] Greatsword: I can't use it, or get any skill for it, and I don't think anyone else can either. Just sell for shards later?
[X] Ring: Ya'll fight it out.
[X] Cloak: It might be useful for the death knight fight, and other minor stuff. I wouldn't mind it, but it's not a huge deal if someone else wants it.
[X] Chunk: Arm-wrestle ya for it. Ah, but seriously, I'm willing to pay in shards for it. Go to whoever's willing to pay the most shards? (Up to 20)
No. of Votes: 3

Spoiler: Voters

Minion #Q
Nanimani
Pipeman

[X] Wrassle for it
No. of Votes: 1

Spoiler: Voters

LeoAbogos

[x] We each own an equal "stake" in each item dropped. Shards are distributed equally outright
-[x] Propose a veto bidding system for items, in shards. Whoever bids the most for an item gets to keep it, and pays that many shards into the pool to be split equally between everyone. If no one bids, it's salebait. If there's only one person interested, or it turns out that the winning bid is less than the stores will offer for it, its value gets changed to whatever the stores will pay for it. If anyone feels that the winning bid for an item is too low they may veto the auction for that item and instead treat it as a greater item
-[x] For greater items, items that are worth far more than the amount of shards available, we try to buy each other's stake in the item (this purchase cost could be an agreement that we give them our stake in the next chunk we get together and perhaps an agreement to farm a boss for it), if more than one person ends up owning stakes they are not willing to sell then the remaining individuals roll for it, with chance of victory based on how many stakes they own
-[x] bid 20 on the chunk, be willing to go up to 30
-[x] if you still have money left, bid 5 on cloak, be willing to go to 10.
No. of Votes: 1

Spoiler: Voters

mrttao

[X] Greatsword: I can't use it, or get any skill for it, and I don't think anyone else can either. Just sell for shards later?
[X] Ring: Ya'll fight it out.
[X] Cloak: It might be useful for the death knight fight, and other minor stuff. I wouldn't mind it, but it's not a huge deal if someone else wants it.
[X] Chunk: Arm-wrestle ya for it. Ah, but seriously, I'm willing to pay in shards for it. Go to whoever's willing to pay the most shards? (Up to 21)
No. of Votes: 1

Spoiler: Voters

Kinematics

[X] For now let you equip the cloak. You're taking the most damage and this should help.
[X] Similarly let the mages decide who can make the most use of the ring at the moment.
[X] Regarding permanent distribution, let Linnea hold the chunk for now and decide what we're doing with everything after we're back near town.
-[X] Suggest a sort of buy-from-the-pot system. Check out the prices from the merchants for each item. If no one wants it for that much, sell it for the shards. If only one person does, they can buy it from the group for that much. If more than one person does, whoever's willing to offer the most shards for it gets it. Then everyone splits the pot.
[X] For now, divide the shards evenly.
No. of Votes: 1

Spoiler: Voters

Sirrocco

Total No. of Voters: 14

 

Alright then. Just want to let people know, even though updates are slowing down, not intending to drop this. Thanks for the tallies guys.