Coronavirus COVID-19 Pandemic

[Germtheory3Z]

TLDR so you dont have to wonder.

1. Viral Load is not relevant to teh decision making process since it's the mutation rate that is more of a concern. In 99.999999% of all virus and bacteria that infects humans, their charecteristics is such that mutations will make it more benign and less lethal since it spreads the virus out faster if the patient was alive. Corvid 19 is the 0.001% where since the symptors occur after the infection period, there's less pressure for mutations to be benign and an unquantifiable risk of more lethal mutations. So even if the true deathrate is 1/1000 right now, the no lockdown strat incurs a real possibility of more lethal mutations or more immunity dodging variants.
1.1 This is why predicting herd immunity through doing nothing is a near full proof strat for the other "pandemics" of our time (Sars, Mers, Swine flu) as they were heavily pressured to benign mutations.

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In this case the argument would be cutting the number of deaths from immediate infection by a significant margin through controlled exposure, maybe by 2/3rds or 13/14th from the examples he offered. It wouldn't prevent mutation risks but if you think those people are going to get infected organically anyway it could help if it works, and presumably you'd pick one of the benign strains to use.

Overall I'm too pessimistic on actually containing Corona to seriously consider it an outcome. China, a nation that has the advantages of authoritarian government and a developed economy, couldn't contain it so how can we assume a democratic west or underdeveloped third world can? We're now going to be rolling ~200 times for all the countries of the world at worse odds than China and they all need to come up double sixes.

Not really. That's also still ten million fewer deaths than you claim your preferred method will cause.

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I guess now we're getting somewhere. If 40 million and 1 people starve to death because of the lockdowns would you end it then? Could you end it before they died if you knew it was going to happen, or would you have to wait until after they had died?

Would it matter if 39,999,999 people were going to starve, but they were all children under ten?

And you're also not considering the non-virus benefits of the lockdown.

Murder and general violent crime rates are down by double digit rates across a great majority of the western world... a trend which might actually save more lives than are being lost to Wuhan Flu.

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That's before we see what happens after the recession and society reopening. Poorer people in deprived communities generally means more violent crime, and I can absolutely see gangs needing to reassert territories and test each other as soon as they're back on the streets.

That one's also kind enough to point out, for those environmentalists out there, that this is amazing for the planet. Human-generated pollution hasn't been this low since the 1800s. It's also showing how quickly the planet can bounce back, which is great news and a massive scientific boon.

And the reduction in car accidents... in California alone it has already saved about a billion taxpayer dollars, plus all the life and suffering.

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Certainly China's had some impressive improvements in air quality. Nothing I've noticed locally but this does seem to have done a lot of good environmentally. A week off pollution a year might be a good idea if people can somehow agree on it.

Then there's the as-yet impossible to calculate impact upon other diseases that cause serious harm or death. Here's a fun statistic: daylight savings time, and its impact on sleep patterns costs about half a billion dollars per year in America.

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As one of the people with a shitty body clock yes it can die in a fire.

Hell, as a spitball number, I'd say we have about six months before the harm to human life caused by the economic damage outweighs the harm to human life caused by modern lifestyles, even if the outbreak never happened in the first place.

Now, after a year or so the damage would no doubt reach unacceptable levels, but we're nowhere near that point as of yet.

And that's *before* factoring in the risks of the virus, one way or another.

TL;DR? We should do this more often.

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Now that's where you lost me. There's nothing natural about not being able to see friends or family, or get out into society to do anything. The stress of the isolation is a pretty big factor to ignore here.

South Korea actually elected their Green New Deal party, which would be nice if everyone started turning from 100% exploitation and the "infinite growth!" economic model to trying to build the future we can actually survive with.

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I'm afraid you need to worry more about who the other Korea elects and whether you can survive them before you start celebrating...

 

[MadGreenSon]

I guess now we're getting somewhere.

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No we're not. Despite subscribing to conspiracy theories, you have actually unquestioningly swallowed the lies of your ideological masters and are regurgitating them all over the place. Hell, you're so taken in you probably don't even know that's what you've done at all. You might even believe you're an independent thinker. It's kinda sad.

 

[Evillevi]

In this case the argument would be cutting the number of deaths from immediate infection by a significant margin through controlled exposure, maybe by 2/3rds or 13/14th from the examples he offered. It wouldn't prevent mutation risks but if you think those people are going to get infected organically anyway it could help if it works, and presumably you'd pick one of the benign strains to use.

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that's not how it works unfortunately. The viral load theory is only useful for keeping doctor's safe, not for public health response and historically it has largely failed to solve the diseases that are this bad since you still get unacceptably high death rates annd no guarantee that it works.

TLDR: Controlled Exposure does not work and anyone recommending it should be look at with suspicion. Largely because if it did work it wouldn't be a problem to begin with.

Most public health specialist in Malaysia though that c19 simply wouldn't be a problem, initially, due to limiting factors such as weather, humidity, exposure, immunity, benign mutation, and so on. These factors are what stopped zika virus, sars, ners, h1n1, h5n1 , etc from spreading.

it'ss because c19 can overcome these factors that makes it dangerous. not that c19 is dangerous and here are some things to consider.

PS: It occurs to me that I didn't list why CONTROLLED EXPOSURE wouldn't work, but controlled exposure is so prohibitively more expensive in terms of man power that it's a non factor. It'll look like the UK do nothing approach and pretend everything is all right and hope that the dice is lucky in your favor

 

[TotalAbsolutism]

MadGreenSon, Germtheory3Z, at this point it seems like you're only going around in circles. Thus, I can only ask that you find a new line of discussion or stop.

 

[Evillevi]

Okay so here's something for context as to why malaysia + Singapore didn't really think C19 was a probllem initially, how it went wrong and what it means for REOPENING THE COUNTRY AGAIN.

Stage 1: In january all evidence and cases that occured within Malaysia + singapore showed no signs of being able to spread effectively within our climate. These patients were unable in the majority of cases to spread C19 to their family, close contacts, the people they stayed with, and so on .

Stage 2: In Mid February the virus seemed to either hit a critical mass of people, or a strain of it mutated to suit the climate, in either case the R0 went from near 0 to the 2~ that match most other countries where the virus was spreading like wildfire.

Stage 3: By March full Lockdown started to become the cheapest solution to containing the spread as contact tracing (informal localised isolation) became impractical as the virus hit the idiot population who didn't give a whit about social responsibility. Within these population we went from hundreds to thousands of cases at which point exponential growth would overwhelm both contact tracing in a few weeks localised lockdown.

Stage 4: As off April there is currently no consensus or proof that it is safe to let the disease go out of control. Without guarantee of immunity after the first infection and without evidence that mutations would make it more benign, the likely outcome is a massive increase in the true death rate of the disease. This is the biggest single thing that is stopping our PM from releasing the lockdown.

 

[Germtheory3Z]

MadGreenSon, Germtheory3Z, at this point it seems like you're only going around in circles. Thus, I can only ask that you find a new line of discussion or stop.

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Fair enough. This does seem unproductive.

No we're not. Despite subscribing to conspiracy theories, you have actually unquestioningly swallowed the lies of your ideological masters and are regurgitating them all over the place. Hell, you're so taken in you probably don't even know that's what you've done at all. You might even believe you're an independent thinker. It's kinda sad.

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Okay, the final word here is 'the rich losing money doesn't make being poor any better'. You can't cancel out the consequences of one because the other also happened. Otherwise I'm just letting this go.

that's not how it works unfortunately. The viral load theory is only useful for keeping doctor's safe, not for public health response and historically it has largely failed to solve the diseases that are this bad since you still get unacceptably high death rates annd no guarantee that it works.

TLDR: Controlled Exposure does not work and anyone recommending it should be look at with suspicion. Largely because if it did work it wouldn't be a problem to begin with.

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PS: It occurs to me that I didn't list why CONTROLLED EXPOSURE wouldn't work, but controlled exposure is so prohibitively more expensive in terms of man power that it's a non factor. It'll look like the UK do nothing approach and pretend everything is all right and hope that the dice is lucky in your favor

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It's a pretty out there idea culturally but the sources seemed solid, and I have heard that in the Chinese apartment complexes that circulate air internally the people nearest the first infected household died at higher rates. In theory if we find out with antibody studies that 50% of people already had it by the end of May then it's possible that people catching it from post to their door or whatever instead of from eights hours working next to someone infected played a role.

As a poor man's vaccination I'd take cutting the death rate to 7% like in the measles study he linked if that could be demonstrated somehow.

Most public health specialist in Malaysia though that c19 simply wouldn't be a problem, initially, due to limiting factors such as weather, humidity, exposure, immunity, benign mutation, and so on. These factors are what stopped zika virus, sars, ners, h1n1, h5n1 , etc from spreading.

it'ss because c19 can overcome these factors that makes it dangerous. not that c19 is dangerous and here are some things to consider.

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I'd be surprised if warm weather had that strong an effect this year. If Flu has an easier time in winter then it makes sense the spreads happen around December in the north and around July in the south, but if no-one is resistant yet then why wouldn't it spread in warmer countries now? Equatorial countries still get it. I guess it would be interesting if the disease was as seasonal as the flu is right out the door.

 

[Evillevi]

It's a pretty out there idea culturally but the sources seemed solid, and I have heard that in the Chinese apartment complexes that circulate air internally the people nearest the first infected household died at higher rates. In theory if we find out with antibody studies that 50% of people already had it by the end of May then it's possible that people catching it from post to their door or whatever instead of from eights hours working next to someone infected played a role.

As a poor man's vaccination I'd take cutting the death rate to 7% like in the measles study he linked if that could be demonstrated somehow.

I'd be surprised if warm weather had that strong an effect this year. If Flu has an easier time in winter then it makes sense the spreads happen around December in the north and around July in the south, but if no-one is resistant yet then why wouldn't it spread in warmer countries now? Equatorial countries still get it. I guess it would be interesting if the disease was as seasonal as the flu is right out the door.

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TLDR: Controlled exposure literally does not work for C19. ... Any political talking about controlled exposure means don't do anything and pray that the plague away works. Or loading a gun with random duds and shooting someone with it.

TLDR: Waiting out diseases is basic Public Health 101. Incompatible weather is a massive reason why the Zika Virus is dealt with in Malaysia. What makes C19 dangerous is that it overcame the basic hurdles through mutations.

I can't speak for other countries but Malaysia toss out controlled exposure due to only professionals being able to maybe , reliably pull off controlled exposure to not get themselves killed. It is thus irrelevant for Public health where we don't have the manpower to monitor so many people and make sure they don't fuck up controlled exposure.

So again Controlled exposure is irrelevant without even considering any other factor.

[Long ass not relevant stuff was removed due to not being relevant]

 

[TotalAbsolutism]

Okay, the final word here is 'the rich losing money doesn't make being poor any better'. You can't cancel out the consequences of one because the other also happened. Otherwise I'm just letting this go.

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The final word here is 'take three days off from the thread for trying to get the final word in when I told you both to stop'.

 

[evildice]

My stimulus check is due to arrive pretty soon.

Apparently millions of US citizens are going to not get theirs, or are facing delays, due to how the tax preparation industry has set up middlemen (mostly to the profit of the tax preparation industry).

I hope it's appropriate to post links about this SNAFU, since it's probably going to apply to some people, and it's not strictly political in nature -- the IRS is apparently the good guy in this situation, which is itself darkly amusing.

Spoiler: Some Stimulus in Doubt or Delay

https://www.propublica.org/article/...eck-delays-for-a-strange-reason-they-are-poor

https://www.propublica.org/article/...be-tricked-into-paying-turbotax-to-get-theirs

Another thing I saw today was that the US mortality numbers are probably under-counting pandemic-related deaths:

- https://gothamist.com/news/surge-nu...ls-suspect-undercount-covid-19-related-deaths

- https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/05/us/coronavirus-deaths-undercount.html

Those aren't the same story, but the upshot is related.

 

[Ragnarok]

 

[evildice]

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But what about second death-fest?

 

[TotalAbsolutism]

And all of which was without modern communication, testing or treatment methods. The former might be the largest thing impacting on the depth of this pandemic, honestly, as compared to the Spanish Flu.

 

[TanaNari]

And all of which was without modern communication, testing or treatment methods. The former might be the largest thing impacting on the depth of this pandemic, honestly, as compared to the Spanish Flu.

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That and this disease isn't remotely comparable to Spanish Influenza in terms of lethality.

It's probably even more infective, but it's nowhere near as lethal. Even if it managed to infect every last man, woman, and child on Earth, it isn't likely to reach a 25 million death toll. Long as it doesn't infect everyone simultaneously, at any rate.

Unfortunately, that's part of the problem. Spanish Influenza burned itself out... Covid-19 does not appear to be playing out the same way. At this point, we might have to accept Wuhan Flu is now a permanent fixture on the pathogen scene, and count ourselves lucky it isn't nearly as deadly as its SARS and MERS siblings. Especially MERS- that shit had 34% lethality, making it more deadly than Spanish Influenza. Could you imagine if a third of all Covid 19 cases died?

Especially if it turns out it's true that this shit can jump to dogs as some reports are now suggesting.


No fucking wonder the entire world is throwing everything it has into damage reduction and pursuit of a vaccine. Which will probably be made a standard package in every yearly flu vaccine from this point onward.

 

[TotalAbsolutism]

No fucking wonder the entire world is throwing everything it has into damage reduction and pursuit of a vaccine. Which will probably be made a standard package in every yearly flu vaccine from this point onward.

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May not mean much without mandatory vaccination, and that'll be a pushback and a half.

 

[TanaNari]

May not mean much without mandatory vaccination, and that'll be a pushback and a half.

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What it means without mandatory vaccination is a lot of anti-vaxxers die. And I'm heartless enough to say the fuckers deserve it- they were bringing fucking measles back. Let them get a taste of the third-world hellscape they were recreating.

This is a coronavirus, remember- they can reinfect people. The primary change is that they go from being exceedingly deadly to "just the common cold" once you've developed your antibodies.

So let the vaccine remain voluntary. The divide will be 'those with the sniffles' and 'those who needed to learn the hard way.'

 

[TotalAbsolutism]

What it means without mandatory vaccination is a lot of anti-vaxxers die. And I'm heartless enough to say the fuckers deserve it- they were bringing fucking measles back. Let them get a taste of the third-world hellscape they were recreating.

This is a coronavirus, remember- they can reinfect people. The primary change is that they go from being exceedingly deadly to "just the common cold" once you've developed your antibodies.

So let the vaccine remain voluntary. The divide will be 'those with the sniffles' and 'those who needed to learn the hard way.'

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As with regular vaccines, however, this fucks over everyone who cannot be vaccinated for whatever reason, or who is potentially at-risk even with a vaccine.

 

[TanaNari]

however, this fucks over everyone who cannot be vaccinated for whatever reason, or who is potentially at-risk even with a vaccine.

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As they'd be fucked over even if the vaccines were mandatory. There's literally nothing we can do to get around that short of locking all vulnerable people in quarantine for the rest of their lives.

Unless we get stupid lucky and this is the one coronavirus on record which cannot reinfect- and since some evidence is showing it's *already* reinfecting prior victims, I think we can toss that small prayer out the window.

That or this winding up becoming an impetus to design a better vaccination system for those who can't use standard vaccines. Here's hoping.

 

[Ragnarok]

And I'm heartless enough to say the fuckers deserve it- they were bringing fucking measles back. Let them get a taste of the third-world hellscape they were recreating.

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While I agree that they deserve it, a lot of them have kids who are not responsible for their parent's behavior.

 

[OverMaster]

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I don't get the mental procedures of someone who sees chilling stats of death both existing and likely across all the planet and then thinks "You know what this needs? A joke with some anime moe girl attached to it!"

I don't think I want to get them either.

It's probably even more infective, but it's nowhere near as lethal. Even if it managed to infect every last man, woman, and child on Earth, it isn't likely to reach a 25 million death toll. Long as it doesn't infect everyone simultaneously, at any rate.

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The virus on its own? Probably not... now, all the economic and social complications, especially among the poor countries where most of our species lives, whether the fallout is from the damage brought by an unchecked plague or by extense lockdowns? Yeah, that will probably do the trick anyway.

Not to mention we don't know yet how lethal the virus is ON REPEATED REINFECTIONS. Other coronaviruses are less dangerous once antibodies are developed, but then, we can't take that for granted now since this virus has proved being quite unlike other viruses of its blasted family. It leaves nasty sequels so even if the first time it doesn't kill you, by the second or third it might do that trick on your weakened body regardless. THAT might push it that far up the numbers.

 

[evildice]

Here's one positive thing: financial networks relating to the international drug trade seem to be breaking down faster than legal supply chains.

https://www.latimes.com/california/...aundering-to-a-crawl?utm_source=pocket-newtab

So we got that going for us, which is nice.

 

[OverMaster]

What it means without mandatory vaccination is a lot of anti-vaxxers die. And I'm heartless enough to say the fuckers deserve it- they were bringing fucking measles back. Let them get a taste of the third-world hellscape they were recreating.

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For the record, from where I look at matters, anti-vaxxing is mostly a First World thing, seen majorly among those who have been privileged enough to NOT be struck by major plagues until now, and thus willing to underplay the risks.

The Hispanic countries, for instance, have a few usual random vocal weirdos in the Internet copying those manners and ranting on how vaccines are The Elite's tool to subdue us, but most of us are burned enough on past experiences (dengue once did a fairly nasty number on us, although nowhere as big as this) that if we're told "a vaccine will help you" for the most part we will know better than to start ranting paranoia against it.

If an efficient vaccine is ever developed, that is, and the bitter irony is, even if it is, it'll make the rounds among First Worlders distrusting it (unless by that point the virus has softened their stand enough) long before being available for us the more accepting type, since we collectively don't have as much bucks to pay for it as you guys do.

 

[MirrimBlackfox]

If an efficient vaccine is ever developed, that is, and the bitter irony is, even if it is, it'll make the rounds among First Worlders distrusting it (unless by that point the virus has softened their stand enough) long before being available for us the more accepting type, since we collectively don't have as much bucks to pay for it as you guys do.

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Unless "we" decide the path to take is to use less wealthy countries populous as test cases... that is something AIC like to do. Truthfully, vaccines are relatively cheap to make so once the makers recoup their costs in inventing them, there is *no reason* to have them be expensive, not that that stops big-pharma.

 

[evildice]

Rona Memes, again all from "Most Viral"

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... plus a few vaguely funny Twitter screencaps:

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And finally, the most topically QQ image I've seen:

Spoiler

 

[TanaNari]

Truthfully, vaccines are relatively cheap to make so once the makers recoup their costs in inventing them, there is *no reason* to have them be expensive, not that that stops big-pharma.

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It depends an awful lot on the pathogen being vaccinated against, but as a general rule? Yeah, vaccines are easy to produce (well, not really- they're usually quite hard to produce, but once you have a facility that *can* produce them, making copies is cheap enough).

However, most of the expense is in the form of transportation and storage, since the vast majority are very temperature sensitive, and many have short effective lifespans. Plus all the other "if something goes a little wrong, people can die" concerns involved.

https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/hcp/admin/storage/index.html

Seriously, there's a reason it requires at least two years of schooling before you're even allowed to *assist* in the handling of vaccines, let alone administer them.

So delivering large numbers of reliable vaccines (and the people to use them properly) to third world nations is hardly a cheap proposition.

That doesn't mean Big Pharma isn't taking advantage of the logistical problems to fuck people... they certainly are... but they can only get away with it *because* of the logistical problems.

 

[TotalAbsolutism]

evildice Do be mindful of Rule 8, even in your memes.

 

[evildice]

evildice Do be mindful of Rule 8, even in your memes.

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Ah, sorry about that.

It looked to me like it was about one guy personally being a massive hypocrite, not about any party-wide political stuff.

 

[TotalAbsolutism]

Ah, sorry about that.

It looked to me like it was about one guy personally being a massive hypocrite, not about any party-wide political stuff.

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Yeah, that's probably fair, but the image itself was emphasising his political leanings. Just flame bait, that way.

Plus a couple of other things. No big.

 

[TanaNari]

And I think you said you're going test that too. Sounds interesting. And then I see the disinfectant where it knocks it out in a minute. One minute. And is there a way we can do something like that by injection inside or almost a cleaning.

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Oh, hey, I found the thing he was talking about in his garbled way.

https://apnews.com/b44f4531071e6204023f7b8e16f59d4b

Basically, it's a lung-disinfecting technique they've been perfecting for several years now that they're trying to fast-track around the FDA for the purposes of fighting coronavirus. You wanna accuse the company of being opportunistic little bastards, I ain't gonna disagree, but it's real technology with real data behind it.

Basically, the put a little light on a tube in your lungs and fire off UV-A light directly inside the body. You know, the fun sort of scifi (or, regular science at this point), and I'm not sure I'd be keen on being an early volunteer for testing, but the animal victims subjects haven't contracted lung cancer or anything. And, more importantly, it works... at least, it works on the diseases it's been tested against. How it'll hold up against coronavirus remains to be seen.


Here's hoping it pans out... because fuck coronavirus, that's just the tip of an iceberg. If this tech works out it could be a magic bullet for numerous diseases that are far more deadly, and could drastically reduce deaths by pneumonia, which would save thousands of lives a year.

https://www.cdc.gov/pneumococcal/about/facts.html

Also anthrax. Granted, anthrax is a pretty niche disease that only only infects, like, ten people a year in the USA and can be beat by antibiotics... but you have to catch it unreasonably fast to save the victim if it hits the lungs. Lungs are fragile that way.

Might also work on yeast infections- don't laugh... I know it has a rep as a "feminine problem"... but I've got news for you... yeast spores can get into the lungs, where it can cause breathing problems and even heart attack.

Most lung infections can cause heart attack. This tech could prevent heart attacks. That's all I need to know.

Once again: even if I doubt this'll be taken off the ground fast enough to mean anything against coronavirus, I really hope it gets a trial run in trying. It could save a lot of lives unrelated to the world's friendliest plague.

 

[mishie]

Snipped

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Although I do appreciate the immense amount of time and effort that you must have put in to find this article, I'm very sorry to say that it was a complete waste of time. Not only because Trump had mentioned the disinfectants and UV lights as separate things and not that UV light tubes to the lungs would disinfect people, but also because he made it very clear that he wasn't talking about some in development solution, he was being sarcastic. He very specifically went on to national television during the broadcast to update people on the crisis, then and sarcastically told people to use UV light and disinfectants to cure Corona. That is what he is claiming he meant by what he said.

 

[TanaNari]

Although I do appreciate the immense amount of time and effort that you must have put in to find this article

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No, actually. Stumbled across this one quite tangentially, in fact.

Apparently, right after Trump said his thing, several videos talking about this technology were mysteriously removed from youtube and several other places. Naturally, the Streisand Effect did its thing and now I'm pretty sure it won't be long before everyone's heard of this device.

He very specifically went on to national television during the broadcast to update people on the crisis, then and sarcastically told people to use UV light and disinfectants to cure Corona. That is what he is claiming he meant by what he said.

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Heh. Saw that one as it happened. Sorry, but much like everything from the first one, that's people deliberately reading the worst possible interpretation. Not even the worst reasonable interpretation, the absolute worst possible interpretation no matter how nonsensical that interpretation might be.

Which, y'know, business as usual.