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[X] MirrorVerse - 6
[X] Junior Hero - 5
[X] Slippery Slope - 4
[X] Confrontation II - 3
The Ack Stock Exchange is open
if someone kindly votes for MirrorVerse, i'l match that value (or nearest free value) vote with the fic of your choosing.
Done, don't forget to like.
Okay. The spreadsheet itself has been updated (see my sig), but a full in-depth analysis will have to wait until I get home later tonight.
All Alone?[X] MirrorVerse - 6
[X] Junior Hero - 5
[X] Slippery Slope - 4
[X] Confrontation II - 3
The Ack Stock Exchange is open
if someone kindly votes for MirrorVerse, i'l match that value (or nearest free value) vote with the fic of your choosing.
I thought about stopping at a 10-vote average, as that's as far into the future as I'm predicting, but I figured the more votes averaged in the better.So are you just extending the average number of votes in the projections infinitely from the point where you starting counting? That doesn't quite sit right with me. I would have cut it off at a 5- or 10-vote average.
Done.[X] MirrorVerse - 6
[X] Junior Hero - 5
[X] Slippery Slope - 4
[X] Confrontation II - 3
[X] All Alone - 2
The Ack Stock Exchange is open
if someone kindly votes for MirrorVerse, i'l match that value (or nearest free value) vote with the fic of your choosing.
I thought about stopping at a 10-vote average, as that's as far into the future as I'm predicting, but I figured the more votes averaged in the better.
I thought about stopping at a 10-vote average, as that's as far into the future as I'm predicting, but I figured the more votes averaged in the better.
A man after my own heart.
So are you just extending the average number of votes in the projections infinitely from the point where you starting counting? That doesn't quite sit right with me. I would have cut it off at a 5- or 10-vote average.
I thought about stopping at a 10-vote average, as that's as far into the future as I'm predicting, but I figured the more votes averaged in the better.
Why not just do both? If you have it set up like I'm guessing you do, you just have to enter the raw vote data each vote, and the spreadsheet does the rest for you. In which case you just need to copy/duplicate the prediction page, edit a few lines, and the job's done.As I see it, the issue with extending the average is that even if a story increases or decreases in popularity, it barely shows because you're averaging so many rounds. Of course, at the end of the day, it's your spreadsheet, so you can average it however you like. It's really just a matter of my personal taste.
this is actually very hard to do with spreadsheets, and would require multiple cells doing background calculations instead of just one or two cells using simple algorithms to calculate things out.Suggestion: Weight the results so that more recent votes are counted more highly than earlier ones.
[X] MirrorVerse - 6
[X] Junior Hero - 5
[X] Slippery Slope - 4
[X] Confrontation II - 3
[X] All Alone - 2
The Ack Stock Exchange is open
if someone kindly votes for MirrorVerse, i'l match that value (or nearest free value) vote with the fic of your choosing.
Hmm. Looked over your stuff, and I think I have the hang of it... but... hmm. Incorporating it directly is difficult. I can't just track the trend in vote totals, because they get reset to 0 periodically. I need to track the trend in votes per round... but the trend value only predicts one round at a time. I'll need to completely redesign the spreadsheet to invoke it multiple times, once for each upcoming round. And it'll be tricky to handle the reset-to-zero mechanism.You could also try a regression equation, which should get more accurate the more data points you have. Basically it predicts what the value should be, if the trend in voting remains.
I've gone ahead and done it for the currently active stories testing the results for predicting the results of Vote 68 (using all available data up to vote 67).
According to your spreadsheet for Vote 68, your accuracy (for the projected vote total) was:
Most: 100%
Average: 96.25%
Least: 57.14%
My method:
Most: 99.77
Average: 97.74%
Least: 91.71%
If you'd be willing to share your spreadsheet with me, I could add in my formulae for you and/or explain how to use the Trend function on Google Docs.
Tomorrow, when it's not 2 AM I might try making my own version just to see long term differences in projected winners.
As expected, fan-favorite Wyvern took home the prize and shattered the 1k-vote ceiling. Security! looks like it's going to try and pull the same off next round, but it might fall short if votes shift; current predictions have it hitting exactly 1,000 votes, so we'll see. No real chance of upset; the next story is too far behind.Wyvern and Security! sure do have Votes 68 and 69 pretty well locked-down, respectively; Wyvern in particular will potentially hit 1,000+ votes next round. After that, All Alone looks like a good bet for Vote 70 in the low 900s; the next-nearest will be Trump Card about 30 votes behind. Close enough to potentially overtake, but not a sure thing by any means.
If All Alone manages to hang onto the lead, then Trump Card will definitely win Vote 71; nothing else will be close to it as it hurtles towards the 1,000 vote line. Alea Iacta Est will probably figure that looks like fun, and win Vote 72 at about or just above 1k votes as well. That story in particular is picking up steam; it and Wyvern are now the two highest-earning stories by a large margin.
Vote 73 sees another story join the 1k club: Meet the Heberts, for its first vote win, no less. Next-nearest will be I, Panacea about 50 votes back, though that margin may shift as we get closer. Assuming no upsets I, Panacea will win Vote 74 handily, as will Wyvern win Vote 75.
Then we've got a prediction upset; One More Trigger was previously predicted to win Vote 76, but it's looking like Recoil will beat it to the punch as it joins the 1k Club. One More Trigger will follow suite in Vote 77, green with envy.
Doesn't look like we have that many chances for upsets over the next month, but only time will tell.
A Challenger appears!Dammit. 3 AM. Anyway, have my own version of Jim Starluck's spreadsheet.
Vote 69
Vote 70
- Security: 996
- All Alone: 897
- Meet the Heberts: 771
Vote 71
- All Alone: 967
- Trump Card: 877
- Meet the Heberts: 835
Vote 72 (After this, it looks like all votes will have winners in the 1000+ area)
- Trump Card: 988
- Alea Iacta Est: 979
- Meet the Heberts: 900
Vote 73
- Alea Iacta Est: 1137
- Meet the Heberts: 964
- I, Panacea: 879
- Meet the Heberts: 1029
- I, Panacea: 970
- Slippery Slope: 851
Due to recent trends in the stock exchange, the gains of some stories are substantially inaccurate. Mainly for those stories which have been available for voting for a long time.
So tomorrow, I'll check to see if accuracy improves by moving the initial start of calculations to vote 59. Which should be when all the current stories became available for voting.
These errors currently amount to ~256 votes last round.
For reference, the errors for Jim Starluck's spreadsheet was ~248 votes last round.
My overall accuracy was greater because I had more votes slightly off than his predictions.
My policy from this point is that I will copy top eligible vote of somebody who gives "I, Panacea" 6 points and quotes this offer.
Current votes-per-round rankings:
1: Wyvern - 160
2: Alea Iacta Est - 124
3: Recoil - 115
4: Trump Card - 113
5: I, Panacea - 96
6: Security! - 79
7: Meet the Heberts - 64
8: One More Trigger - 62
9: All Alone - 54
10: NSW - 51
11: Slippery Slope - 47
12: Confrontation II - 46
13: Hostage Situation - 44
14: War Games - 40
15: MirrorVerse - 32
16: Nemesis - 26
17: Danny & Taylor - 22
18: TIED! - 20
- Junior Hero
- Bait & Switch