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Vote Thread for Ack's Omake Corner

Reader mode
[X] Meet the Heberts - 6
[X] NSW - 5
[X] Really Bad End - 4
[X] Hostage Situation - 3
[X] Confrontation II - 2
[X] Trump Card - 1
 
Ack said:
So yeah, Hostage Situation made it in, 32 points ahead of Alea Iacta Est and 40 ahead of Trump Card. I can see both of those pushing through, in that order, with War Games behind them, before Really Bad End gets a go.
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...
Mmm... mostly.

Alea Iacta Est is probably going to win Vote 81, but the margin is only about 20 votes in both models. A few people drastically changing their votes could still push it back in favor of the next probably story, Trump Card, which will otherwise take Vote 82 uncontested. War Games is likewise secure in Vote 83.

By this point, however, three other stories will have earned votes faster than Really Bad End and surpassed it in totals, with Security! being the probable winner by 20-30ish votes. Still room for an upset if someone really wants one, unlike Vote 85; that's almost certainly going to I, Panacea -- the first time the story and its sequel have updated back-to-back since the end of last May.

Then we get into murky territory. Traditional Model A still has Recoil winning Vote 86, though the margin continues to fall -- it started at 75 votes, then dropped to 39, and now further to 22. Experimental Model B says MirrorVerse will take it, though it's grown less certain -- margin started at 10, climbed to 20, and has now fallen back to 11. Might be a sign that people are shifting their votes based on this prediction to put Recoil ahead, or it could just be the usual surge in votes as a popular story nears its update.

Vote 87 is the reverse, of course: Model A gives it to MirrorVerse, though only by 40+ votes; Model B gives it to Recoil by 160+. Both stories are now in agreement on Vote 88; Wyvern wins it without much trouble.

Now we finally get around to Really Bad End. Both models predict it will win here, though Model A says it'll be by only 8 votes while Model B puts it ahead by more than 40. They're closer together on Vote 90, which should go to NSW by a solid margin.

Estimated rounds-to-win past Vote 90 -- which currently looks to be around New Year's; either just before or after -- are as follows:

Alea Iacta Est: 2
All Alone: 4-5
Bait & Switch: 26-27
Confrontation II: 6-7
Danny & Taylor: 7-8
Hostage Situation: 18-21
I, Panacea: 6-8
Junior Hero:15
Meet the Heberts: 5-6
MirrorVerse: 21-24
NSW: 23-25
Nemesis: 17-18
One More Trigger: 11-14
Really Bad End: 48
Recoil: 7-8
Security!: 9-11
Slippery Slope: 15
Trump Card: 4
War Games: 9-10
Wyvern: 9

Again, that's counting from Vote 90.

For once, Model A was actually more accurate this round: 97.96% overall, to Model B's 97.84%.

Model A's most accurate prediction was Danny & Taylor, which came in exactly on-target. Model B's most accurate was Really Bad End, which was similarly precise. Least proportionally accurate for A was One More Trigger at 86.04%, while B had Slippery Slope at 83.43%. For raw vote count both of them fumbled on I, Panacea -- A had it 31 votes behind, B had it 35. And lastly the average votes off was 8 for A, 9 for B.

We'll see which of them winds up accurately predicting wins far enough out.



On a side note, I improved my spreadsheet a bit. I now have everything but the prediction accuracy getting calculated entirely off the number I plug in for the latest vote; it automatically references the page where that vote's totals were counted and brings those totals up to use as a base, then also auto-calculates the average votes earned by each story over the last 10 rounds and predicts based on those. I've had it doing parts of these automatically before, but some I had to key in by hand; now I just need to drop in one number and it does the rest for me. Only parts I still have to do by hand are enter in the latest round's vote totals and copy the previous round's predictions; much easier and quicker.

This also allows me to turn back the clock, and see what predictions would've been like from an earlier point. Right now it only works for fairly recent votes; I'll need to adjust it to rollback to earlier ones. It also won't accurately reflect some of my precise predictions from a while back, since I was changing the patterns by which I calculated average votes-per-round every time for a bit there. Still, it'll be interesting to see what can be learned. I may fiddle around with this a bit to see which of the two predictive models can see a win coming from further away, just by rolling them back and comparing their predictions to what actually happened.



For my vote:
[X] Meet the Heberts - 6
[X] NSW - 5
[X] War Games - 4
[X] One More Trigger - 3
[X] Security! - 2
[X] Recoil - 1
 
[X] I, Panacea - 6
[X] Security! - 5
[X] Hostage Situation - 4
[X] Wyvern - 3
[X] Recoil - 2
[X] Confrontation II - 1
 
[X] I, Panacea - 6
[X] Recoil - 5
[X] Wyvern - 4
[X] Danny & Taylor - 3
[X] Trump Card - 2
[X] Meet the Heberts - 1
 
[X] Alea Iacta Est - 6
[X] Recoil - 5
[X] Trump Card - 4
[X] Security! - 3
[X] Junior Hero - 2
[X] Nemesis - 1
 
[X] NSW - 6
[X] Danny & Taylor - 5
[X] Meet the Heberts - 4
[X] Security! - 3
[X] I, Panacea - 2
[X] Slippery Slope - 1
 
[X] Trump Card - 6
[X] Danny & Taylor - 5
[X] Bait & Switch - 4
[X] Hostage Situation - 3
[X] Confrontation II - 2
[X] Wyvern - 1
 
[X] NSW - 6
[X] Meet the Heberts - 5
[X] Danny & Taylor - 4
[X] Recoil - 3
[X] One More Trigger - 2
[X] Bait & Switch - 1
 
[X] Security! - 6
[X] Recoil - 5
[X] Trump Card - 4
[X] I, Panacea - 3
[X] Alea Iacta Est - 2
[X] Wyvern - 1
 
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