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Vote Thread for Ack's Omake Corner

Reader mode
[X] Recoil - 6
[X] Alea Iacta Est - 5
[X] Trump Card - 4
[X] War Games - 3
[X] I, Panacea - 2
[X] Wyvern - 1
 
[X] Meet the Heberts - 6
[X] Recoil - 5
[X] Danny & Taylor - 4
[X] Trump Card - 3
[X] One More Trigger - 2
[X] Security! - 1
[_] NSW - 0
[_] All Alone - 0
 
[X] One More Trigger - 6
[X] Trump Card - 5
[X] War Games - 4
[X] Security! - 3
[X] I, Panacea - 2
[X] Wyvern - 1
 
[X] Confrontation II - 6
[X] One More Trigger - 5
[X] Security! - 4
[X] I, Panacea - 3
[X] Recoil - 2
[X] All Alone - 1
 
[X] Junior Hero - 6
[X] One More Trigger - 5
[X] All Alone - 4
[X] War Games - 3
[X] Security! - 2
[X] I, Panacea - 1
[] Trump Card - 0
[] Recoil - 0
[] Alea Iacta Est - 0
[] Wyvern - 0
[] Confrontation II - 0
[] Hostage Situation - 0
 
[X] Slippery Slope - 6
[X] NSW - 5
[X] Trump Card - 4
[X] One More Trigger - 3
[X] Recoil - 2
[X] Security! - 1
 
[X] War Games - 6
[X] Junior Hero - 5
[X] Recoil - 4
[X] Confrontation II - 3 (Swapped for War Games with Angush)
[X] Security! - 2
[X] Alea Iacta Est - 1 (Swapped for War Games with JKR)
 
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[X] Slippery Slope - 6
[X] Alea Iacta Est - 5
[X] MirrorVerse - 4
[X] Security! - 3
[X] One More Trigger - 2
[X] War Games - 1

Slot 2 is negotiable for people who will exchange a Slippery Slope or Alea Iacta Est vote.
 
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JKR said:
Slots 1 and 2 are negotiable for people who will exchange Slippery Slope or Alea Iacta Est votes.
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War Games in slot 1 for Alea Iacta Est - 1? Also is this long-term or single turn?

EDIT: Vote has been changed here.

EDIT2: After more than 48 hours without any response this offer has expired.
 
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subsider34 said:
Jim Starluck, your 'Rounds to Win' prediction is reporting that Danny & Taylor will next win two rounds ago (-2). Did you change something on the spreadsheet?
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No, the math just does some screwy stuff there. It's estimating the average votes needed to win based over the 10 predicted rounds. It then subtracts the estimated vote total of the story as of the last predicted round, giving it an idea of how far away a story is from winning, and divides the result by the story's average votes-per-round. Except in this case, Danny & Taylor had more votes than the average, meaning that when it subtracted the current total from the average of the 10 predicted rounds it got a negative number.

Ack said:
Well, that's Really Bad End with an actual plot beginning to happen. Who knew?
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Eh. Still had to hold my metaphorical nose while glancing over it. Just glad that it probably won't get another chapter for the better part of a year at its current vote-earning rate.

Now, we're back to regular SFW stories, with Alea Iacta Est, followed (probably) by Trump Card and maybe All Alone.
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Thank goodness!

And yes, Trump Card is highly likely to win. Current predictions put it up by more than 70 votes next round, and since that's just one vote away it's unlikely to be unseated. All Alone isn't quite as secure, being estimated to win Vote 93 by just over 30 votes, but still not too likely to fall behind without a coordinated effort. Slippery Slope is similarly unlike to slide, also estimated to take Vote 94 at just over 30 votes.

Vote 95, however, has shifted from my last prediction. Previously, Meet the Heberts had a narrow, 19-vote edge over Recoil in that round, with Recoil then taking Vote 96 by almost 120. Now, however, they've swapped places -- Recoil is looking to take Vote 95 in the upper 20s, while Meet the Heberts has been pushed back to Vote 96. It's unlikely to get pushed further back, though, with a fairly solid margin of 50-ish votes.

Vote 97 is also precarious; Confrontation II is holding onto it by only 14 votes, with the much more popular I, Panacea right behind it. This far out we could very well see them swap places just as the previous two did.

After that things get marginably more stable. Security! has secured its lead from last prediction and is now expected to win Vote 99 in the low 40s. Wyvern takes Vote 100 by almost 30, and then Danny & Taylor slam-dunks Vote 101 by a whopping 200+ votes.


At that point, the stories nearest to win are Alea Iacta Est at 1,300+, Hostage Situation, Junior Hero, One More Trigger and War Games all at varying levels above 1,200, and Trump Card at 1,100 and climbing. Average votes-to-win over the currently predicted timeframe is about 1,400. Of those stories, Hostage Situation and Junior Hero earn votes the slowest -- the latter is currently second from the bottom, only beating Bait & Switch for least votes-per-round -- so expect them to get lapped by the other three, if not more.


Accuracy in the predictions for Vote 91 was 95.42% overall, with an average difference of 11 votes between prediction and actual result. Most accurate was Bait & Switch, earning exactly as many votes as expected -- a mere 18. Least accurate was split: recently-updated Really Bad End got the trophy for least accurate proportionally, taking home a mere 51.85% of its normal take. Least accurate in raw vote count was a tie between Recoil and Security!, who both got 27 more votes than their recent averages.



And then there's my vote:
[X] Meet the Heberts - 6
[X] NSW - 5
[X] Security! - 4
[X] War Games - 3
[X] One More Trigger - 2
[X] Recoil - 1
 
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[X] MirrorVerse - 6
[X] All Alone - 5
[X] Alea Iacta Est - 4
[X] Security! - 3
[X] Slippery Slope - 2
[X] One More Trigger - 1

6 & 5 MirrorVerse & All Alone w/Angush & SnakeEater. 4 Alea Iacta Est - MirrorVerse w/JKR. 3 Security! - MirrorVerse w/Terrence Mitchem.

Willing to change my - 1 vote in exchange for an equivalent vote for All Alone. Just tag me, or quote this post.

thyrfa said:
As always all unlocked votes are up for trade for equivalent slippery slope votes.
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Willing to vote for Slippery Slope - 2 in exchange for you moving All Alone up form - 1 to - 3 this round.
 
[X] NSW - 6
[X] Meet the Heberts - 5
[X] Danny & Taylor - 4
[X] Recoil - 3
[X] One More Trigger - 2
[X] Bait & Switch - 1
 
[X] I, Panacea - 6
[X] Security! - 5
[X] Trump Card - 4
[X] Wyvern - 3
[X] Hostage Situation - 2
[X] Alea Iacta Est - 1

Thank you once again, O Grand One Ack, for all that you do.
 
[X] Trump Card - 6
[X] Danny & Taylor - 5
[X] Bait & Switch - 4
[X] Hostage Situation - 3
[X] Confrontation II - 2
 
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