Jim Starluck
CO, ICS Vanguard
- Joined
- Aug 3, 2014
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Funny story, that. Neither one of those two has dropped much; in fact, Recoil brought in 20 votes more than predicted last round. But Slippery Slope, which was previously projected to win in Vote 94, has been underperforming the last couple rounds. It got 20 votes less than predicted in Vote 92 and 13 less in Vote 93. It was going to pull ahead of Danny & Taylor by Vote 94, but has now fallen far enough behind that D&T has kept its lead -- and just before Recoil would have pulled ahead itself.So how did Danny & Taylor manage to shoot ahead of Recoil in the voting predictions?
Anyway, I suppose I should finally get around to my predictions.
As said above, Danny & Taylor is currently projected to win Vote 94 and Recoil Vote 95, but by very close margins -- only 11 votes for each of them. A determined vote-trader could probably shift things around if they wanted. Slippery Slope has, well, slipped back to Vote 96. It's unlikely to slide any further, though, as its margin is pretty solid at 70+. Likewise for Meet the Heberts in Vote 97.
Vote 98 is still a dead heat -- only the players have changed. What was previously a tie between I, Panacea and Confrontation II has shifted into a tie between I, Panacea and Security!. Whichever story winds up losing the contest will fall back to Vote 99, with Confrontation following up in Vote 100.
Regardless of how that plays out, the last three rounds now go the same either way: Wyvern takes Vote 101 by a whopping 300+ votes, Alea Iacta Est cruises to a win in Vote 102 by 60+, and One More Trigger just barely edges ahead of Trump Card to win Vote 103.
After that, the stories closest to updating are Trump Card at 1,400+, Hostage Situation, Junior Hero and War Games at 1,300+, Recoil at 1,200+, Nemesis at 1,100+, and finally Bait & Switch at 1,000.
Accuracy for Vote 93 was 95.69% overall, with an average difference between prediction and result of 12 votes. Most accurate in both categories was Nemesis, which came in exactly on-target -- 100% accurate. Least accurate proportionally was recent winner Really Bad End, which only hit 55.56% of predicted votes. Least accurate in vote count was a toss-up between Really Bad End and War Games, though the directions were opposite -- RBE was 24 votes behind, while War Games was 24 votes ahead.
Last and most certainly least, we have
[X] Meet the Heberts - 6
[X] NSW - 5
[X] Security! - 4
[X] War Games - 3
[X] One More Trigger - 2
[X] Recoil - 1