Coronavirus COVID-19 Pandemic

[ANGRY PUFFBALL]

The WHO never offered them in the first place. The entire claim comes from Joe Biden's presidential campaign and is based on an article talking about how the WHO shipped kits to 60 different countries (the US wasn't one of them).

 

[lost star]

Doesn't the US typically manufacture their own anyway?

 

[ANGRY PUFFBALL]

Yup. The WHO only ships tests to countries that can't develop their own. They published a set of seven different approaches to detecting the virus based on different parts of it's genome and countries with the capacity to make their own tests can use that information however they please.

 

[Aleh]

... guys? This has been increasingly getting into the stuff that I can't talk about under Rule 8.

 

[Megaolix]

Alright, that's enough of the kits issue. Stick to ongoing events, please.

Edit: I'll add to that that conspiration theories too. So don't come in here claiming to have the 'truth' about everything.

 

[GodlessWorld]

So anyone here heard of S.Korea's Patient 31 and the Church? *Attempts to not anger the mods*

 

[TheLastNanaya]

Well, Italy has won the highest death toll against China's official death count.

So yay for Italy taking the crown in that aspect.

 

[Drak4806]

Unless the entire world goes on full lockdown for at least two months then bans most international travel this virus is never going away. It's simply too infectious. We know its spread all over the world to almost every country in not every country. Many of those countries can not contain it meaning it will always be a plane ride away. The number of people it puts in the hospital is overwhelming every country's health care system. This simply isn't going to magically go away in a month or two. And the economy is in the toilet because people aren't going outside.

I am legitimately worried about what this will do to modern civilization.

I really should have bought more liquor the last time I was at the store.

 

[TanaNari]

I am legitimately worried about what this will do to modern civilization.

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We'll be fine.

First- this disease doesn't appear to be much more deadly than measles in spite of us having no developed resistance to it, while everyone's developed some resistance to measles (either by inherited immunity or inoculation). And measles in a person with no resistance is far more deadly than Wuhan Flu.

Once it runs its course through the population, reinfection will be met with immune systems already prepared, and thus far less vulnerable. What we're seeing right now is the most deadly outbreak of this virus which will ever occur.


Second- it predominately kills the elderly and the sickly. Young, healthy people (aka: the labor force) are not at little risk individually, and at no risk as a whole. Hell, chances are good it won't even kill enough young people to make much dent in the unemployment numbers once things pass and the economy recovers.

We'll see a massive loss of retirees, but not workers. Now, a civilization where everyone's mourning their parents and/or grandparents is going to be a tragedy to behold... but it's not likely to collapse.


Third- for the Americas, there's a lot of space between population centers, which slows contagion... the flattened bell-curve will greatly reduce the strain on healthcare resources and minimize the death tolls. Now, obviously the western hemisphere aren't the only civilizations in the world, but if necessary then North America has the resources and historical propensity to rebuild in the unlikely event anyone else collapses.


Millions are absolutely going to die... but probably fewer deaths proportionate to the world population than Korea, or perhaps even Vietnam (both of which disproportionately killed young people)... let alone meat grinders like the World Wars... and civilization made it through those.

 

[Susano]

I am legitimately worried about what this will do to modern civilization.

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That depends on what you mean by that. Modern civilization itself, per se, will be just fine. It survived both the Spanish Flu and the Great Depression. It will survive having both at once.

But there will still be long term effects. Disease tracking, while necessary now, normalize surveillance state shit, for example. Or they might take the epidemic as an excuse to phase out cash for good in order to push their negative interest rate dreams through. Stuff like that.

 

[seeing_octarine]

Really, all that remains is that yes, the epidemic came from China. But that's not China's fault. Once again: Epidemics simply happen. They are literally natural disasters.

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Dude, pointing out how epidemics are just a natural disaster is hardly "defending China to a fault".

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Epidemics are not natural disasters. They do not result from the geologic processes of the Earth. They can also be prevented. In this case, it could have been prevented by cracking down on bushmeat markets and enforcing better food handling. You are defending the CCP with such vehemence that I am starting to wonder whether you're a Chinese citizen or something.

 

[OverReactionGuy]

-stuff-

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You missed the mod post telling people to shut up.

 

[Susano]

Epidemics are not natural disasters. They do not result from the geologic processes of the Earth. They can also be prevented. In this case, it could have been prevented by cracking down on bushmeat markets and enforcing better food handling. You are defending the CCP with such vehemence that I am starting to wonder whether you're a Chinese citizen or something.

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"Bushmeat" is really hardly different than hunting deer or boars for meat. We just apply the term when people hunt animals we are not used to see being hunted.

Like, what is your logic here? The PRC is an oppressive dictatorship, a bad thing (which is certainly true enough)...
...so everything that ever happens in China must have been their fault, must be traced back to them, must be seen in a bad light?

That's just not how logic works!

So let me tell you here clearly: The CCP is a force for bad in the world.
But at the same time, they didn't handle the situation any worse than European governments, and in many aspects better.
Those are not two mutually exclusive statements.

But of course, anything claiming the latter must be a CCP apologist.
And, no, for the record, I'm German you incredible idiot.

 

[seeing_octarine]

You missed the mod post telling people to shut up.

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*scrolls up*

Wasn't talking about kits, conspiracy theories, or politics... Ooooh, you meant the admonishment to stick to ongoing events. My bad.

 

[Drak4806]

Second- it predominately kills the elderly and the sickly. Young, healthy people (aka: the labor force) are not at little risk individually, and at no risk as a whole. Hell, chances are good it won't even kill enough young people to make much dent in the unemployment numbers once things pass and the economy recovers.

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While that's true young people do get sick and do need to be hospitalized and our current healthcare system cannot handle all these sick people. I'm also worried about the economic effect of all these people getting sick and countries shutting down for weeks or months.

 

[Zam138]

Second- it predominately kills the elderly and the sickly. Young, healthy people (aka: the labor force) are not at little risk individually, and at no risk as a whole. Hell, chances are good it won't even kill enough young people to make much dent in the unemployment numbers once things pass and the economy recovers.

We'll see a massive loss of retirees, but not workers. Now, a civilization where everyone's mourning their parents and/or grandparents is going to be a tragedy to behold... but it's not likely to collapse.

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You forgot a group of people that don't have developed immune systems: Babies. For the next few months parents will have to quarantine themselves as best they can against their own newborns, lest the kids catch the disease by accident.

For a lot of people, quarantining is too little too late. So yeah, don't send your kids to daycare for a while.

 

[Smuthunter]

As usual, the correct answer to fears like this is "don't worry about shit you have no control over." It does no good and only reduces your quality of life further than sickness and quarantine and recession will.

 

[Lykaia]

For a lot of people, quarantining is too little too late. So yeah, don't send your kids to daycare for a while.

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Aren't they all shut down?

 

[Ragnarok]

We'll be fine.

First- this disease doesn't appear to be much more deadly than measles in spite of us having no developed resistance to it, while everyone's developed some resistance to measles (either by inherited immunity or inoculation). And measles in a person with no resistance is far more deadly than Wuhan Flu

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Your constant insistence on calling it the "Wuhan Flu" is the reason why many people are automatically associating it with everything Chinese. Chinese restaurants and businesses run by people of Chinese descent are getting hit hard because of the association*, even though they may have had no contact with China in years and are at no more increased risk to catch or spread the disease

Second- it predominately kills the elderly and the sickly. Young, healthy people (aka: the labor force) are not at little risk individually, and at no risk as a whole. Hell, chances are good it won't even kill enough young people to make much dent in the unemployment numbers once things pass and the economy recovers.

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"Primarily." That doesn't mean there is 0% chance. I assume you're hale and hearty somewhere around the prime of your life. You could still catch it and die. Lower risk does not mean no risk.



* if your local supermarkets are under stocked then try the Asian supermarkets. Because of the stigma they aren't getting much business and often have a lot more stock than your local Safeway or Fred Meyer.

 

[Aleh]

First- this disease doesn't appear to be much more deadly than measles in spite of us having no developed resistance to it, while everyone's developed some resistance to measles (either by inherited immunity or inoculation).

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... umm. No.

And measles in a person with no resistance is far more deadly than Wuhan Flu.

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Again, not a flu.

Second- it predominately kills the elderly and the sickly. Young, healthy people (aka: the labor force) are not at little risk individually, and at no risk as a whole. Hell, chances are good it won't even kill enough young people to make much dent in the unemployment numbers once things pass and the economy recovers.

We'll see a massive loss of retirees, but not workers. Now, a civilization where everyone's mourning their parents and/or grandparents is going to be a tragedy to behold... but it's not likely to collapse.

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No.

This is not only wrong, it's fucking stupid. As I've pointed out before, it's not a binary "you die or you don't" thing. Known long-term complications include lung damage, septic shock, brain damage... and the list is still growing.

Or, as I put it before:

Moreover, the death rate isn't the rate of long term complications. The data I've seen is highly preliminary, but it seems that anywhere from something like 5-50% (highly preliminary data means small sample sizes and thus large confidence intervals) of cases result in a substantial, permanent loss of lung capacity, for instance.

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Here is a popular-level summary of the data I was referring to. Here is another popular level summary which details related issues.

Stop looking at just the death rates when talking about the social consequences of this stuff.

What we're going to see is a shitton of people who have been severely, permanently injured by this stuff... and we're going to see more of that if the hospitals get overloaded... which it's increasingly looking like they will. Worse, hospitals are already running out of protective equipment for their workers... and we're already short on medical personnel. The healthcare system is going to take a massive hit to its capacity right as we need that capacity the most.

This means that the disease is going to be more deadly soon, with more long term complications (that could have been prevented with treatment).

Third- for the Americas, there's a lot of space between population centers, which slows contagion... the flattened bell-curve will greatly reduce the strain on healthcare resources and minimize the death tolls. Now, obviously the western hemisphere aren't the only civilizations in the world, but if necessary then North America has the resources and historical propensity to rebuild in the unlikely event anyone else collapses.

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Yeah, no. The data we've seen very much does not support this assertion.

I hope you're right, and you are right in that human society will survive this... somehow. We're not looking at a Mad Max outcome. The shape we'll be in after... now that is the question.

The correct analogy, though, isn't the World Wars. It's a combination of a polio epidemic and the Spanish Flu... and we're looking at the return of -- in general status, if not specifics -- the age of the iron lungs.

 

[Guardian Box]

But at the same time, they didn't handle the situation any worse than European governments, and in many aspects better.
Those are not two mutually exclusive statements.

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I don't fucking remember European governments intimidating and vanishing doctors who dared to speak about the problem, destroying the evidence the virus existed and doing ABSOLUTELY FUCKING NOTHING for months as the outbreak ravaged their countries so much the web was flooded with videos of people falling over on the streets (and denying that happened to boot)

But of course, anything claiming the latter must be a CCP apologist.

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Your vehement defense of the myriad failures of Chinese government despite all the facts and logic, as if you took their propaganda as gospel truth, is a good indication of that.

At this point the only relevant question anyone can ask you is whether you prefer choking on Chinese dick or taking it up the ass.

 

[OverMaster]

I can't help but feeling this "Everything will be fine" saying has somewhat of the same "Everything will be fine" vibe people wanted to spread before the virus hit the West in full force, but lowering the bar further with each passing day. And I also have the feeling that same bar will be further lowered across the next week.

 

[daimahou]

"Bushmeat" is really hardly different than hunting deer or boars for meat. We just apply the term when people hunt animals we are not used to see being hunted.

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umm, don't hunted mammals go through a test for prion disease? (or at least wild game should be tested for it) Granted that doesn't fuck you up immediately...

 

[Megaolix]

You know, when I said to stick to ongoing events, that did not mean the blame game topic was still a good idea.

Threadbans have been distributed. Don't make me hand out more.

 

[OverMaster]

People are panicking, it's understandable we're more easily rattled than we'd be usually.

In a conscious or subconscious level, we all probably are fearing for our very lives, our loved ones' lives, and/or our livelihoods. And it's only going to grow worse the longer this goes.

 

[GodlessWorld]

People are panicking, it's understandable we're more easily rattled than we'd be usually.

In a conscious or subconscious level, we all probably are fearing for our very lives, our loved ones' lives, and/or our livelihoods. And it's only going to grow worse the longer this goes.

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That and there seems to be a pattern of sorts. SARS, Swine Flu, Ebola, Zika, Corona. All appearing in the last two decades. It doesn't help that research has confirmed that places like the Tibetan Ice Sheets have ancient viruses and the like. Now, they aren't human transferable, yet. There is a chance they could mutate but it is a small chance. If only there weren't myriad of them, yeah, we are going to be dealing with this for a while.

 

[OverMaster]

That and there seems to be a pattern of sorts. SARS, Swine Flu, Ebola, Zika, Corona. All appearing in the last two decades. It doesn't help that research has confirmed that places like the Tibetan Ice Sheets have ancient viruses and the like. Now, they aren't human transferable, yet. There is a chance they could mutate but it is a small chance. If only there weren't myriad of them, yeah, we are going to be dealing with this for a while.

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I've lived through all of those and let me tell you, the panic for this one far surpasses what we had for any of them. Probably even surpasses the whole of them put together. Regardless of the actual outcome this will most probably be remembered as 'the big one' for this generation. Or at least we should hope so, since otherwise that only would mean a worse one would come afterwards.

 

[Felius]

We'll be fine.

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Society as a whole and the economy, specially with the vast majority of deaths being the elderly and the otherwise vulnerable will be more than fine. After the disease runs its course, the panic dies down expect a boom and quite likely for per capita stastics to be actually better than they were before the disease hit. At a terrible cost, yes, but less people, specially people who in general are not and will not become productive (anymore). That's not a judgement of value. It's awful that they die, and they aren't a "burden" that we need to get rid of, but they are mostly consumers of the world's production, which, in very gross and simplified. terms, there will be more left of a nearly same sized cake for everyone else, so to speak.

We've seen historically it quite often. It won't be quite as dramatic as the post black death scenario, as that killed far more of the population plus back then the biggest part of the economy's production depended in good part of a finite stock of land, meaning that they saw quite the diminishing returns on labor (putting twice as many farmers the same area won't double production, to put it in general terms), but we will be likely seeing a somewhat noticeable boom after things normalize.

Still, personally I don't find it worth the cost, but yeah, society and the economy will be fine.

 

[Lykaia]

...Shit, you know that $1000+ aid that they're sending out? It's looking like it'll be coming from next years tax return so we could end up owing money.

 

[TanaNari]

Still, personally I don't find it worth the cost, but yeah, society and the economy will be fine.

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I don't disagree. You'd have to be one particularly vicious Machiavellian psychopath (or have the dispassionate observation of being born several centuries removed from the experience) to consider what's happening *positive*, but historically these sorts of things do usually result in the society which rises from the ashes being stronger than what came before.

...Shit, you know that $1000+ aid that they're sending out? It's looking like it'll be coming from next years tax return so we could end up owing money.

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Huh... that's actually kinda clever.

A 1000$ loan with no interest rates? Yes, please. I'll be investing every dime of it... stocks are going to be a fucking *steal* in the near future. By the time next year rolls around, that 1k will probably be worth 8 or 9k.