Esquestria: The House of the Sun - A pony cultist experience

[Rafuki22]

[X] The Royal Apartment has become distressingly hot, to the point that even Princess Celestia's guards (ceremonial as they were) have been prohibited from approaching it. This has become the most crucial issue on Princess Cadance's agenda.

Wait and hope.

 

[Flaregamer82253]

The point is that you simply must reach your beloved sister.

You have to help Luna.



Over the skies of Equestria, a blazing comet gives chase to a brilliant falling star.

[Your pursuit: 79 +50 (Alicorn) = 129]

[Her flight: 100 +50 (Alicorn) -30 (Scars of Nightmare) -5 (Frustrated) +80 (Traumatized) = 195]

[Oh dear…]

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You nearly trip and fall out of the window, your hindlegs barely keeping you in place as you lose your balance.

You look out through the window.

And you see that Canterlot is on fire.



[Princess Celestia's reaction]

[Amassed Virtues: "The Princess of the Sun: +1"]

[Amassed Miseries: "Rude Awakening: -1", "Canterlot Burns: -1"]

[Total dice modifier: + 1 - 1 - 1 = -1]



[Roll (1d6): 3 – 1 (total modifier) = 2]

Spoiler: The mentality of the Sun

7 or higher: "The Paragon of Harmony walks upon Equestria. None shall find her wanting."

6: "The morning sun comes, and the horrors of the night flee from its bright gaze."

5: "Bowed, but unbroken. Shaken, but still determined. The sun's light was warmer, before, but its light is still there."

4: "The clouds are too heavy, too numerous. The sun is still there, but we cannot reach it, and it can no longer reach us."

3: "Will the sun ever rise again? It might have forsaken us. It might just not care anymore."

2: "The sun blazes with wrath. Her will shall no longer be denied."

1: "Dawnbreaker has come. If the Moon will not rise, then the Sun will never set."

0 or lower: "The Sun was divided, and this is its wound."

- - -



You feel something crack inside of you.

You have already been sad before.

You have already been angry before.

So, you know that what you are feeling isn't exactly any of that.

It feels like… a mixture of impotence… and emptiness…



And HATE.

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[Soothe the night, breakpoints variable]

[Roll: 2]

[Winter-related Realization. Re-roll invoked.]

[Roll: 7]

"Celestia" results:

Spoiler: Soothe the Sun table

100: "Good morning, dear Sister." (The issue is resolved)

96-99: "I will be here tomorrow as well, when you fall asleep." (Celestia moves one step "up" her previously-rolled reaction scale.)

90-95: "The sweetest dreams, to calm that burning wrath." (Celestia progresses 3 points, vote for a positive opportunity.)

70-89: "A sweet dream, to cool that fiery rage." (Celestia progresses 2 points, Lore learning delayed for one turn.)

50-69: "Your flame may burn the tip of my feathers, but their ashes will still reach you." (Celestia progresses 1 point.)

30-49: "The very marble burns. Not today. Not tonight." (No effect.)

20-29: "Her resentfulness pierces the very air. I am not welcome here." (Celestia loses 1 point.)

10-19: "The guards turn their spears on me! Back! Back!" (Celestia loses 2 points, Selene risks taking a wound.)

2-9: "I messed up." (Celestia loses 3 points, vote for a negative outcome.)

1: "I regret this." (Celestia loses her battle.)

Full rules of Celestia's "progression" mechanic omitted.

Rolls from previous turns omitted.

Positive effects towards Equestria in general omitted.

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As is typical in this quest, the dice continue to say "Fuck Celestia in particular."

So! Picking our poison...

Let's first remember that we are basically being told the bare minimum in what these choices affect, and mostly only how they interact with us:

You must choose one option.

All options will have additional outcomes, narrative or otherwise, that are not directly stated. The "effects" listed under each option are simply the most relevant and direct ways each option will affect you.

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Going down the list:

[] One day the sun stopped moving, and everypony swore that it was looking directly at them. It is very hard to live a normal life when the sun no longer sets.
-All actions that involve the Lore of Lantern will receive a "+10 (Glare)" bonus.
-All actions that do not involve the Lore of Lantern will instead receive a "-10 (Glare)" malus.
-All actions that involve the Lore of Moth will receive a further "-10" penalty, to a total of "-20 (Glare)" malus.

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I'm not fond of this one because only so many of our important actions going forward involve Lantern. This one is also the most likely to have overarching effects on ponykind in general.

[] Princess Celestia has spoken once more, at last. She decrees that her sister be found. Equestria moves to obey.
-Both your "Investigator" and "Constable" actions will be unavailable for Turn 23.
-From Turn 24 onwards, you will have to dedicate one of your Bureau actions (either "Investigator" or "Constable") to placate Princess Celestia.
-Due to your increased workload, your "Social" free action will no longer be available for the foreseeable future.

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The biggest downside to this one is that we won't be able to bumrush Smiles as fast, if at all before we are forced into All In. Then again, I've been considering Smiles as a bonus and not as a likelihood in the first place, so this isn't a factor for me. Overall, I don't think this is a horrible option in the short-term that we estimate we have left for this quest. Fleeting opportunities will become harder to fit in, but we don't have much use for the Social action aside from that going forward. Furthermore, we should have a second Mareinette action going forwards anyways to make up for it. I also don't see much lost with lacking bureau options in the future as well. The most important thing we could do with them is put them on the trail of Windy Flakes since we're unlikely to resolve the remaining changeling situation before we go All In.

[] The Royal Apartment has become distressingly hot, to the point that even Princess Celestia's guards (ceremonial as they were) have been prohibited from approaching it. This has become the most crucial issue on Princess Cadance's agenda.
-You will gain the Fleeting Opportunity "Help Cadance." You will be allowed to dedicate as many Personal Actions (and Social Actions) to address it as you wish. You will not be informed of how many actions you "should" dedicate to it.
-If Cadance succeeds on her efforts, she will "disarm" the current crisis. If Cadance only succeeds "partway," this situation will be delayed for another turn and the Fleeting Opportunity will be offered once more.
-If Princess Cadance fails on her efforts, Princess Celestia will go one "step" down on her previously-rolled reaction scale.

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This one seems to be popular at the moment, but I'm hesitant on this. We know we can send Mareinette to assist on this matter, but we don't know how many actions we need to dedicate to succeed on this in one try, and it seems clear that this is going to be a roll where we have no certainties on breakpoints or bonuses. The worst-case scenario is Daybreaker, but even a mediocre outcome just means doing this again on the next turn all while the Doom Clock continues to tick. This is very high risk and very high reward, and I'm not fond of how many actions can be wasted on this at a critical time.

[] Outsiders are forbidden from entering the House of the Sun. What did she do? What. Did. She. Do?
-Princess Celestia will have the Dream.
-This will only be possible due to a scandalous violation.
-This option will have additional negative consequences you cannot predict at this moment. (This is your "fair warning" for exceptional unpredictability.)

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I'm very conflicted on this one. For the entire quest we've known that the House of the Sun is a pony-centric place. Non-ponies aren't allowed. Outsiders aren't even in the question. I just want to know how.
It would likely start a second timer for us amidst the many other possibilities, but curiosity has always been my weakness...

All things considered, I think option 2 is the best choice practically and option 4 is the fun choice.

[X] Princess Celestia has spoken once more, at last. She decrees that her sister be found. Equestria moves to obey.
[X] Outsiders are forbidden from entering the House of the Sun. What did she do? What. Did. She. Do?

I just checked, and there's a 31% chance of Selene fixing Daybreaker completely, without accounting for the "Progress" mechanic at all, since we know we're at most at -3 right now anyway.

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Checking the math on this...
Presuming we have one related Winter re-roll per turn and we were to dedicate all 3 of Selene's actions to Soothing the Night, we would have a maximum of 8 rolls (3 + 1 re-roll) to hit 96 or higher once in the next 2 turns.
1 - 0.95^8 = 33.66%.
(This method would incur higher likelihoods of negative consequences and Nat 1s given we would not have the reroll.)
A more conservative measure would dedicate 1 of Selene's actions to Soothing the Night, where we would have 4 rolls (1 + 1 re-roll) to attempt a 96 or higher in the next 2 turns (thereby decreasing the likelihood of negative consequences or Nat 1s.)
1 - 0.95^4 = 18.54%.

This also assumes that we don't hit the negative maximum and go Daybreaker in the midst of these rolls, as we don't know what the progress bounds are.

Either way, Soothing the Night is likely to delay the Doom Clock, so it is the best possible choice we can make with Selene no matter what.

 

[Maer]

[X] The Royal Apartment has become distressingly hot, to the point that even Princess Celestia's guards (ceremonial as they were) have been prohibited from approaching it. This has become the most crucial issue on Princess Cadance's agenda.

Personally, Winter re-roll used to try and calm Celestia after hitting a horrible roll makes sense. Winter to calm, even if it has nothing to do with boosting the main roll.

Knock attention could maybe help Selene get to Celestia more easily? Grail attention might help her with the roll since she doesn't have it as a Lore herself… Heart is another possible bonus there, though I am more doubtful about that.

We CAN'T do the Glare option though. A -10 to Selene's 'Soothe the Night' action is too much. We don't even know how to boost it!

 

[spiderhellian]

I don't think we can Soothe the Night/get a roll on Soothe the Sun more than once per turn. @OurLadyOfWires can you confirm?

 

[ses]

Soothe the Night is a maximum of once per turn. This has been said many many many times already during previous turn votes.

 

[Earth-Destroyer]

[X] Princess Celestia has spoken once more, at last. She decrees that her sister be found. Equestria moves to obey.

We already used the burue for what we wanted really. And since we kept the map which we will never bother with the org has become largely irreverent.

 

[Solace2117]

It's already been asked, but if we over commit actions and the ones not used are refunded like the Knock Sacrament, then that mitigates a lot of the risk of it carrying over another turn. We also know the effects shown aren't everything the options do. There could be additional benefits to supporting Cadence here.

 

[Talon Tiger Dino]

[X] Princess Celestia has spoken once more, at last. She decrees that her sister be found. Equestria moves to obey.

We already used the burue for what we wanted really. And since we kept the map which we will never bother with the org has become largely irreverent.

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You also lose Velvet's Social AP with that option, though. And since the Bureau's Constables can just give Velvet an AP on demand, that's more AP gone with the wind.

To say nothing of how it hampers Equestria to get stuck in a pointless goose chase *again*.

 

[MisRAR1]

[X] The Royal Apartment has become distressingly hot, to the point that even Princess Celestia's guards (ceremonial as they were) have been prohibited from approaching it. This has become the most crucial issue on Princess Cadance's agenda.

 

[Pittauro]

Wasting more actions on studying the ritual is really silly. It kinda made sense to take the first step on the path, just to make sure we weren't missing anything, it makes absolutely no sense to invest what's required in taking more.

Because think of what is required.

We have multiple actions to get the next chunk of the ritual -- Knock isn't even one of Jade's lores. We have even more actions after that to get Part 3. Then we have an expensive, very difficult ritual.

And all that only gets us to Harmony's Door. There's still whatever 'key' is needed for victory, probably something like teaching Harmony the lores, which is going to be at least as hard as finding an Outsider.

The Harmony path made sense to pursue when we first encountered it, literally more than half the quest ago. It doesn't make sense now.

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For all that I want to see what's next there.

For all that I think there's still a chance of Harmony being relevant post All-In.

Realistically, NOW it's not the time. We have to focus on All-In preparations, the sacraments, the Names, the Expeditions, and this latest disaster with Selene and Daybreaker.

A possible worst case scenario is we need to take All In two turns from now, end of turn 24.

We can't afford luxuries that don't help us in either gaining more time OR be ready in time.

I dont know what thought process results in you reading millions of words of a writer's quest and then just ignoring him when he says flat out your best choice is Glory.


Anyway. Soothe the Night each turn was objectively the correct choice. That's 1 Selene AP per turn for a 52% chance of delaying the Doom Clock by a turn, with a small chance of disabling it entirely. That's massively net-positive in expected AP, as 1 Selene AP vs 50% of all the Velvet and Name AP we get from an extra turn.

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Yeah, I don't regret taking Soothe the Night. I just regret the two horrible rolls in a row.

And I think we should, indeed, double down on it if possible. 2 Selene actions on it, paired with 2 to 4 Velvet actions on defusing Daybreaker with Cadance.

It's a heavy expense, and it means delaying Smiles some, but we still can do the essentials.

Moth Sacrament
Grail Sacrament
Expeditions for Lantern 7 and Forge 6 (Axe + Cherenkolt artifact on one, probably Smiles + Cherenkolt artifact on the other).
1 action on SH Sacrament with Baldomare (the expedition one)

we use the Bureau and Social free actions on defusing Daybreaker, plus maybe a Velvet action or two, and if possible we use Mareinette (maybe for influence, maybe directly having her act AS Velvet) to further help.

Turn 24 we befriend Cherenkolt, and if at all possible we try to rush Smiles. If we truly have to we can throw 2 Mareinette actions + 6 Velvet actions on it all at once, even, unlocking Smiles for All In. If we have more time, maybe we take a turn longer.

Or maybe we manage to work few points for him next turn, but I doubt it.

Making assumptions there.

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the key to Harmony being "the two half of the outsiders" is a near certainty actually.

There was that whole "Half a bridge leads nowhere (or was it Nowhere?)" thing, and it's basically all but spelled out that Harmony path requires having both Alicorns available in some form or another.

The implication seems to be that the ritual will let the two Alicorns sort of "reform" the original outsider, maybe temporarily? And in some way reopen the path to Harmony. Presumably with the next step being actually INTERACTING directly with the entity we call Harmony.

That said, there's absolutely no chance of us making meaningful progress on it before All In, so the point is moot. We have more urgent things to worry about.

Let's look at Smiles progress for a moment, assuming we go with Cadance, that Mareinette + DoA duo the Quarry, and we make the reagent.

Two of Selene's AP and Jade's AP can probably safely be used for Smiles on T23. The rest of our Follower AP is going to be tangled up in Doing Things or Covering Our Bases. Cherenkolt could recalibrate to Moth to sub in for the lack of Moth artifact, or we can double up on something and YOLO the Moth.

Either way. That leaves us at 9/40 at EoT23, +6 from Selene, +2 from Jade, +1 from natural progress.

Turn 24. Doesn't matter if 4 AP wasn't enough to defuse, it's time to fucking gun it, unless we get very lucky on Selene's roll.

1 AP reserved for FR, 1 AP and Cherenkolt's AP for Blue Gold. Everything else is free.

+1 natural progress gets it to 10/40. Two Selene AP gets it to 16/40. Two Mareinette AP gets it to 26/40. Two regular Follower AP gets it to 30/40. And two Velvet AP gets it to 40/40.

(and Velvet AP can be swapped for Mareinette AP at a 1-to-1 ratio)

Edit: We could also gamble on 3 AP being enough to defuse, and squeezing in a +5 on T23.

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Disagree on making the reagent. it costs 80 (forge 4)+110 (forge 6 refining) bits anyway, might as well send Smiles with Cherenkolt and artifacts on it, we get some of the bits back most likely and also get more loot. And it doesn't require VELVET to actually spend an action refining the forge 4 into forge 6

As for Selene, I think we should heavily consider both actions on Soothe the Night. DEFINITELY at least 1, unless she actually gave up on that. All while we also work on defusing Daybreaker with Cadance.

Torn Risen: 1 (Cover your base)
Rarity: 1 (commission)
Jade Whistle: 1
Fluttershy/Comet: 1
Baldomare: 1 (SH Sacrament expedition)
Mareinette: 1 (probably help with Daybreaker)
Velvet Axe: 2 (Expedition for Lantern 7)
Smiles: 1 (Expedition for forge 6)
Cherenkolt: 1 (artifact form, both expeditions)
Selene: 3 (at least 1 soothe the night, maybe even all 3 if we go all in)
Household servants: 1 (cover your bases).

We definitely want at least 1 cover your bases, and probably constables giving another option.

Baldomare is on SH Sacrament, Smiles/Axe/Cherenkolt are on expeditions, Mareinette to help us with Celestia.

all the other mortals either give us more cover your base expeditions, or help with Smiles, depending on how much we want to spend on Daybreaker.

@OurLadyOfWires How does sacrament work for Celestia? If we get Moth sacrament and hence Moth 5, are we safe from Celestia until she arranges a Lantern Sacrament? I know Comet Feet's personal Edge Sacrament was the same as ours, but I don't know if we can count on the same applying to an alicorn.

Edit: Also, does the Glare modifier apply to Mansus actions or just Wake actions?

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We don't know. Thus far, she got a lantern level per turn, and we KNOW she'll be Lantern 3 beginning of turn 23.

Worst case, lantern 4 beginning of turn 24.

We don't know if she can get Sacrament in a single turn. It's possible. Imagine if she had something like Velvet's personal Lantern sacrament, it would be the work of 5 minutes to have a prisoner brought to her to sacrifice.

so, worst case, Lantern 5 beginning of turn 25. Which means we need to go on All In at the end of turn 24, giving us only two more turns to prepare.

If all goes well that's just enough to gain the Friendship of Baldomare, Mareinette, Cherenkolt, and MAYBE Even Smiles, as well as Sacraments for Moth, Grail (but without the needed scraps, sadly), and the two SH Sacraments (plus Knock and Edge we already have).

If we lowroll Selene next turn I think we can consider FR to be something we can compromise on considering our Edge sacrament. Not saying we do or dont, but that it doesn't rank as "unnegotiable"

I dont think we possibly supply less than 4 AP if we go Cadance.

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I think 3 is viable, 2 is playing with fire. and we might want to have Mareinette help, either as "Velvet 2.0" or with an influence on us.

Your personal social actions can be used to aid Cadance, and Mareinette can step in, so Mareinette can be used for that action yes.

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so Mareinette is committed to helping Cadance, yes. We have to.

...I kinda wonder if Mareinette can just... eat Daybreaker. kinda like she "ate" our trauma.

We can do it more than once?

I think we can only do it once.

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Oh, if we can ONLY do it once, then that makes it easier.

it leaves us 2 actions we can probably use on Smiles then. If a LONG expedition didn't use all 3 of her APs I'd probably use her for that one instead, really, but I suppose Axe and Smiles can solo them (with Cherenkolt artifact aid).

Meh, we may have gotten bitten by a 1 in 100 chance this turn but a nat 1 after reroll is one in ten thousand. That's a hundred Sol Vindictus episodes for every expected double nat1 episode. At some point we do just have to accept that if we roll double nat1s we explode. That's life.

I'm inclined towards Cadance option as well, because we've already done the prepwork on introducing her to the Lores, and we're likely to teach her as part of our AP spending in helping her.

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These are the kind of rolls that make for a wild quest. Remember Luna teleporting away from Celestia? Wasn't that a nat100?

or the SH 100 day... and oh how I regret not picking Neighnia there!

 

[Pittauro]

Do we actually have anything time-sensitive other than a prisoner for the next turn?
Surely we can commit to the damage control for one turn, right?

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5 things.

1. Moth Sacrament, takes one action and a leashed Spoiled Rich
2. Grail Sacrament for Mareinette Friendship, we have the prisoner, takes a velvet action
3. the Lantern 7 book expedition, probably Axe + Cherenkolt in artifact form (plus all our artifacts for support)
4. the forge 6 reagent (cheaper than making it on our own on both bits and actions), probably Smiles and Cherenkolt in artifact form (plus all our artifacts for support) (and Smiles can also do a Manehattan expedition on his own after)
5. Baldomare SH Sacrament, uses 1 Velvet and 1 Baldomare action (and 50 bits I think).

Everything else can be used for Celestia defusing and, secondarily, for Smiles points. Except maybe Rarity on commission for bits.

We need to prepare with the expectation that we're going to have to go for All In at the end of Turn 24. There is no room for error here. The bits we would save do not matter in the timeframe that is important right now. What matters is making sure that Baldomare and Cherenkolt (and Smiles) are fully befriended by the end of Turn 24, and Mareinette + DoA duoing the quarry while we make the Forge 6 reagent is hands-down the most reliable way of making that happen.

We cannot afford to make a mistake here regarding how difficult of an expedition a solo Name can handle.

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a solo Name, with a second Name (if in artifact form) to help, plus all of our artifacts for support.

It's not little.





[X] The Royal Apartment has become distressingly hot, to the point that even Princess Celestia's guards (ceremonial as they were) have been prohibited from approaching it. This has become the most crucial issue on Princess Cadance's agenda.

 

[Solace2117]

I mean 4 personal actions, plus one for constables doing paperwork and 2 cover your bases. That's 7 actions. If we toss 3 personal and the social that's 4 towards Cadence and 4 that are free to use plus 8 or 9 follower actions. If over committed actions are refunded we can afford to toss 5. If we wanted we could still toss Mareinette at Mayor Mare or have Velvet do it if she helps with Celestia while potentially getting all that we needed done. If we can use the Commissioner social, it makes it even more doable. It hurts and it's still has major risks, but isn't necessarily crippling.

 

[Greymere]

a solo Name, with a second Name (if in artifact form) to help, plus all of our artifacts for support.

It's not little.

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And yet, we still have zero reason to risk it. Not when the consequences of failure are so damn large, and our deadline so close. You do not pick the option with the greater chance of failure when there is a very real chance we have a hard deadline at the end of Turn 24.

It doesn't matter if it's cheaper, because what we need above everything else is reliability.

 

[Pittauro]

And yet, we still have zero reason to risk it.

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extra loot, saving a Velvet action, all Expeditions so far having gone overwhelmingly well, having already scried for it, the fact failing a challenge often just has you retry it. Sometimes get a wound or malus, but often not even that.

I mean 4 personal actions, plus one for constables doing paperwork and 2 cover your bases. That's 7 actions. If we toss 3 personal and the social that's 4 towards Cadence and 4 that are free to use plus 8 or 9 follower actions. If over committed actions are refunded we can afford to toss 5. If we wanted we could still toss Mareinette at Mayor Mare or have Velvet do it if she helps with Celestia while potentially getting all that we needed done. If we can use the Commissioner social, it makes it even more doable. It hurts and it's still has major risks, but isn't necessarily crippling.

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do those actions get refunded? It's not been mentioned yet I think.

As for Mayor Mare... damn, it sounds so Mafia-like. Velvet spends a turn with Mayor Mare, to "become friends".

And if she doesn't "become a friend", then next turn she'll have an unfortunate accident.

Velvet the Mafia Princess, even when her Mafia family is not involved! Uncle Steppes should be proud!

 

[Wise Wolf]

The slow option. Spend actions to prevent a negative outcome.
[X] The Royal Apartment has become distressingly hot, to the point that even Princess Celestia's guards (ceremonial as they were) have been prohibited from approaching it. This has become the most crucial issue on Princess Cadance's agenda.

Even if it succeeds, we're still in a time crunch. But at least it applies no penalties to All-In or Mallery.

[X] Outsiders are forbidden from entering the House of the Sun. What did she do? What. Did. She. Do?
-This will only be possible due to a scandalous violation.

I think this might be optimal for a Turn 24 All-In plan. No known penalties, and getting resources and skills out of the Mansus takes time. Six turns from now, this is guaranteed to be the worst choice of the bunch. Biedde, the Wolf, the Tricuspid Gate... all could be disasters once Celestia gets there. But we're looking at winning in two turns.

Plus I'm really curious about the gacha box of horrors. I want to see if there's a new Sun-In-Splendour rising over the Ashes of the Woods, sharing the sky with Glory. This could be really fricking cool to read.

 

[DelightedOne]

There could be additional benefits to supporting Cadence here.

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The possibilites are so fun. For successes, failure is basically game over.

1. Cadance leveling up. Either in the lores or as an Alicorn.

2. Soothe the Sun receiving a bonus.

3. Velvet getting into Celestia's good graces once more if she appears. Which may mean rewards.

4. Delaying the doom clock without Soothe the Night.

 

[Greymere]

extra loot, saving a Velvet action, all Expeditions so far having gone overwhelmingly well, having already scried for it, the fact failing a challenge often just has you retry it. Sometimes get a wound or malus, but often not even that.

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Again, let me repeat myself for emphasis. This isn't a "oh well we misjudged things, we can just try again next turn" situation. If we can't get a reagent for Cherenkolt on Turn 23, we've fucked up badly. We cannot risk not having a whole ass Name on All In just because we decided to blind rush a Long, difficult expedition with a singular Name. The bits do not matter. The Velvet AP does not matter. The extra loot (if any) does not matter.

The only, and I mean only thing that matters right now is making sure that we get those Names befriended before All In happens, which has a very real chance of being at the end of Turn 24, so we have to act as though it is definitely our deadline. Because misjudging it means we Game Over, or are forced into All In without all our Names befriended.

Edit: As an example, remember what happened in the Depths of the Ruined Church? The same "oh we've cleared through all the Mansus hurdles so far, it'll be fine!". And then it very much wasn't fine and we got forced into Dancing With Death because we decided to poke the dangerous Mansus expedition on the same turn we were seriously expecting to get attacked? We can't risk another situation like that.

 

[Wise Wolf]

The possibilites are so fun. For successes, failure is basically game over.

1. Cadance leveling up. Either in the lores or as an Alicorn.

2. Soothe the Sun receiving a bonus.

3. Velvet getting into Celestia's good graces once more if she appears. Which may mean rewards.

4. Delaying the doom clock without Soothe the Night.

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It IS fun... but a lot of this is slow power. And we need to win soon.

If we're aiming for All-In at the end of turn 24 or 25 (last opportunity before Biedde could theoretically be summoned into the Wake, plus about when our Daybreaker doom clock fires if we don't roll well enough), how many of these matter? Will Cadence knowing the lores, or being a more potent Alicorn help us win? Will delaying the doom clock a turn matter? (Maybe; might let us run to turn 25 instead of 24 if we take the pessimistic assumption on Sacrament.) Will Soothe the Sun getting a bonus matter? We don't need Celestia's favor to All In. Etc.

These would matter a lot more without Biedde hanging over our head.

 

[Pittauro]

Again, let me repeat myself for emphasis. This isn't a "oh well we misjudged things, we can just try again next turn" situation. If we can't get a reagent for Cherenkolt on Turn 23, we've fucked up badly. We cannot risk not having a whole ass Name on All In just because we decided to blind rush a Long, difficult expedition with a singular Name. The bits do not matter. The Velvet AP does not matter. The extra loot (if any) does not matter.

The only, and I mean only thing that matters right now is making sure that we get those Names befriended before All In happens, which has a very real chance of being at the end of Turn 24, so we have to act as though it is definitely our deadline. Because misjudging it means we Game Over, or are forced into All In without all our Names befriended.

Edit: As an example, remember what happened in the Depths of the Ruined Church? The same "oh we've cleared through all the Mansus hurdles so far, it'll be fine!". And then it very much wasn't fine and we got forced into Dancing With Death because we decided to poke the dangerous Mansus expedition on the same turn we were seriously expecting to get attacked? We can't risk another situation like that.

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questions, because I ALWAYS forget apparently.

1) Can we refine Forge 4 into Forge 6 the SAME turn we make forge 4 reagent? If not, we could probably do both actually. Spend 80 bits to make Forge 4, and send Smiles on the expedition, so if it succeeds we DON'T need to make Forge 6 (consuming one Velvet and one Cherenkolt action)

REMINDER: Cherenkolt can't be in artifact form while Velvet refines Forge 4 into forge 6. So we can't send him as artifact on an expedition, BUT we also get an action out of him...

2) What if, even if we could do Forge 4 into Forge 6 into one turn, we just... didn't? And did Forge 4 AND expedition this turn, and next turn we acted accordingly? So if we get Forge 6 from expedition, we make the Ingot next turn, and if we don't, we refine forge 4 into forge 6 next turn (turn 23) and then forge 6 into ingot on turn 24, right in time for All In.

 

[Solace2117]

do those actions get refunded? It's not been mentioned yet I think.

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I know it's not verified, that's why I said if it is. It doesn't necessarily change my point about our actions, it just gives us more flexibility. There's a precedent for it so it's not unreasonable. It could also potentially just increase the degree of success if it's not refunded.

The possibilites are so fun. For successes, failure is basically game over.

1. Cadance leveling up. Either in the lores or as an Alicorn.

2. Soothe the Sun receiving a bonus.

3. Velvet getting into Celestia's good graces once more if she appears. Which may mean rewards.

4. Delaying the doom clock without Soothe the Night

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I expect us to toss enough actions that failure is real slim, though I suppose never impossible, but that's always true. May not have enough turns left to matter, but it's we'll see.

If we're aiming for All-In at the end of turn 24 or 25 (last opportunity before Biedde could theoretically be summoned into the Wake, plus about when our Daybreaker doom clock fires if we don't roll well enough), how many of these matter? Will Cadence knowing the lores, or being a more potent Alicorn help us win? Will delaying the doom clock a turn matter? (Maybe; might let us run to turn 25 instead of 24 if we take the pessimistic assumption on Sacrament.) Will Soothe the Sun getting a bonus matter? We don't need Celestia's favor to All In. Etc

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Delaying even 1 or two turns could potentially make a huge difference. Biedde is a concern, but the Doom clock is the bigger issue.

 

[DelightedOne]

These would matter a lot more without Biedde hanging over our head.

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Depends I guess. I am also not playing to win, I am playing to have fun. Because why would you play a game if you don't like the experience?

So I get where you're coming from, but victory is a bit lower on my priorities if it doesn't bring a good feeling to me.

1) Can we refine Forge 4 into Forge 6 the SAME turn we make forge 4 reagent?

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I'm pretty sure we can. We just can't make blue gold with refinement in a single turn.

2) What if, even if we could do Forge 4 into Forge 6 into one turn, we just... didn't?

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That could work. And if we get it from the Expedition we could use it to boost Redemption to recover from the Malus(I don't recommend going to the final dungeon with 2 Health).

 

[ses]

questions, because I ALWAYS forget apparently.

1) Can we refine Forge 4 into Forge 6 the SAME turn we make forge 4 reagent? If not, we could probably do both actually. Spend 80 bits to make Forge 4, and send Smiles on the expedition, so if it succeeds we DON'T need to make Forge 6 (consuming one Velvet and one Cherenkolt action)

REMINDER: Cherenkolt can't be in artifact form while Velvet refines Forge 4 into forge 6. So we can't send him as artifact on an expedition, BUT we also get an action out of him...

2) What if, even if we could do Forge 4 into Forge 6 into one turn, we just... didn't? And did Forge 4 AND expedition this turn, and next turn we acted accordingly? So if we get Forge 6 from expedition, we make the Ingot next turn, and if we don't, we refine forge 4 into forge 6 next turn (turn 23) and then forge 6 into ingot on turn 24, right in time for All In.

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Forge 6 inventory must be in inventory the turn we make blue gold. Forge 4 and forge 6 refining can be done same turn.

Cherenkolt does not require AP for Velvet to make a Forge 6 reagent. These questions were asked and answered last turn planning. He can be an artifact on that turn.

 

[Greymere]

questions, because I ALWAYS forget apparently.

1) Can we refine Forge 4 into Forge 6 the SAME turn we make forge 4 reagent? If not, we could probably do both actually. Spend 80 bits to make Forge 4, and send Smiles on the expedition, so if it succeeds we DON'T need to make Forge 6 (consuming one Velvet and one Cherenkolt action)

REMINDER: Cherenkolt can't be in artifact form while Velvet refines Forge 4 into forge 6. So we can't send him as artifact on an expedition, BUT we also get an action out of him...

2) What if, even if we could do Forge 4 into Forge 6 into one turn, we just... didn't? And did Forge 4 AND expedition this turn, and next turn we acted accordingly? So if we get Forge 6 from expedition, we make the Ingot next turn, and if we don't, we refine forge 4 into forge 6 next turn (turn 23) and then forge 6 into ingot on turn 24, right in time for All In.

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1) Yes. It's the Forge 6 into Blue Gold that can't happen on the same turn, which is why we need to acquire the Forge 6 reagent on T23 one way or another. Edit: Also as Ses pointed out, it's not the reagent purification that takes a Cherenkolt AP, it's the Blue Gold alchemy.

2) You do realize at that point we might as well just make the Forge 6 reagent ourselves, yes? 80 + 135 for making a Forge 4 reagent and solo Name'ing the expedition is both more expensive and less reliable than just committing to making the Forge 6 reagent ourselves (80 + 110). Edit: And if the expedition fails, you've just make acquiring a Level 6 Forge reagent like 60% more expensive for no reason.

Edit:

I expect us to toss enough actions that failure is real slim, though I suppose never impossible, but that's always true. May not have enough turns left to matter, but it's we'll see.

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I think if we're throwing 3 - 4 AP, total failure is probably not in the cards. And if 4 AP is still only a partial disarmament, we may just have to hope that Glory gives us the power necessary to deal with Daybreaker, or at least not immediately explode into a thousand tiny smoking pieces when we have to try and Deal With That somehow.

 

[OurLadyOfWires]

In which The Sun's final Testamant

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Well, this was delightful... and I am more than just a little conflicted.

The moment you mentioned clockwork, I thought the story would go in a particular direction, and I even had a music start playing in my mind:

Spoiler: If you know, you know

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=igY6vEBu26U&list=RDigY6vEBu26U

But the ending... surprised me, a little.

You see, most of this is very much canon material. Celestia's mental state and internal monologue is great, and melting a precious memory she had in an underground vault (while possibly causing a fire around her) would be very much in character for her current state.

But pray tell, if you are willing to share, what exactly is she planning to do? The answer to that could pivot this to a delightful (if non-canon) omake.

Still, thank you kindly for sharing this!



Now, the pings.

@OurLadyOfWires Does Glare affect the Mansus? Knowing if it debuffs us during the Malleary is kind of important. Or do we only suffer Glare debuffs in the Wake? Also does Glare affect Soothe the Sun rolls in the future?

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Glare only affects Wake. And it does not negatively affect Soothe the Sun. (That is a special roll)

@OurLadyOfWires inaccuracy in the chart here, (not that the distinction changes much in our plans) but what does 80-89 actually mean on soothe the sun? the ranges overlap

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Thank you kindly. Fixed.

Lore ponies saying they regret a thing a thing they are going to do sets off entirely too many Wolf-Bells in my head.

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Nah, not here. I love the Wolf, but there is such a thing as overuse.

My horror-writing skills will be exercised in another delightful direction if that happens, don't worry.

@OurLadyOfWires is the Cadance situation like how DoA's Sacrament was? In that, the number of necessary AP is unknown, but if we overshoot it we can reassign the extra AP afterwards?

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I can guarantee you here and now that all actions invested in Cadance support will be thrown at Celestia, with no refunds.

DoA Sacrament was a paced visit to a dream, where you could wake at any moment.

Celestia's "overheating" option will be (properly) described as an ongoing nuclear reactor meltdown, with Cadance as the emergency engineer on site.

I don't think we can Soothe the Night/get a roll on Soothe the Sun more than once per turn. @OurLadyOfWires can you confirm?

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Soothe the Night allows Selene to do dream-shenanigans all month, so only one action is permitted and necessary for its full effect. Using two actions for it wouldn't work (or make sense) because she can't create more hours on a night to patrol for longer.



And just because it is being thrown around:
You can create a reagent as a "Free action" and it is reasonable for it to be ready early enough on a month to be used in other rituals.
Purifying a reagent, however, is a complex task that requires instruction and a full month.
So, you can create a Forge 4 reagent and purify it on the same turn (free action to create, full month to purify), but you need to have a Forge 6 reagent at the beginning of the month to make Blue Gold (full month to purify).

I hope you are all doing well.

 

[Arrkhon]

[X] Princess Celestia has spoken once more, at last. She decrees that her sister be found. Equestria moves to obey.
[X] Outsiders are forbidden from entering the House of the Sun. What did she do? What. Did. She. Do?
First one lets us just throw Selene directly at Celestia in the wake, the second is just too delicious to let pass, let the remnants of the old world wither under the gaze of the wrathful tomorrow!

 

[Talon Tiger Dino]

Celestia's "overheating" option will be (properly) described as an ongoing nuclear reactor meltdown, with Cadance as the emergency engineer on site.


Soothe the Night allows Selene to do dream-shenanigans all month, so only one action is permitted and necessary for its full effect. Using two actions for it wouldn't work (or make sense) because she can't create more hours on a night to patrol for longer.

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Well now I really want the Overheating option, because playing emotional support for an ongoing nuclear reactor meltdown just feels right for an MLP timeline where things are going oh so very wrong.

Also, what do you mean Selene can't create more hours of nighttime? Just raise the moon and stars earlier, silly! (Probably best not to do that though).

[X] The Royal Apartment has become distressingly hot, to the point that even Princess Celestia's guards (ceremonial as they were) have been prohibited from approaching it. This has become the most crucial issue on Princess Cadance's agenda.

Come on Cadance, this sort of stuff is why we've introduced you to Eldritch nonsense on top of your more wholesome Eldritch nonsense. We've got a third Alicorn to save from the fallout of our earlier decisions.

 

[Greymere]

I can guarantee you here and now that all actions invested in Cadance support will be thrown at Celestia, with no refunds.

DoA Sacrament was a paced visit to a dream, where you could wake at any moment.

Celestia's "overheating" option will be (properly) described as an ongoing nuclear reactor meltdown, with Cadance as the emergency engineer on site.

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Out of morbid curiosity, what does happen if Daybreaker gets unleashed? Is that just an instant Game Over for us? Do you pull out those hyperthermia mechanics I vaguely remember you mentioning before?

Do we and Cadance start leading the secret resistance to our new, dread tyrant from the Bureau?

Edit: Anyway, with this I'm definitely leaning more toward Lantern lesson from Baldomare next turn instead of SH Sacrament. If this is the sort of action where every single AP committed will be sucked up, then it's probably also the kind of action where we really should funnel like 5 AP into it.

 

[Talon Tiger Dino]

I believe Smiles will scream something about vindication and attempt to slam Daybreaker from the top ropes.

 

[Proteus]

[X] The Royal Apartment has become distressingly hot, to the point that even Princess Celestia's guards (ceremonial as they were) have been prohibited from approaching it. This has become the most crucial issue on Princess Cadance's agenda.

 

[DelightedOne]

Anyway, with this I'm definitely leaning more toward Lantern lesson from Baldomare next turn instead of SH Sacrament.

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Unless we have something for her to scry or want to send her in one of the available Expeditions that sounds like a good use of her AP.

The Sacrament is more neat than necessary anyway.