You know what, I can do one last thing before I shelve Bloodlines 2 for good. Theorizing what the fuck is happening there with my limited knowledge that I got before softlock.
Fact: Our Elder lost most of his powers. He is marked all over his body.
Fact: Our Elder has his blood written in strange symbols all across the City. Consuming them grant us some XP.
Fact: The symbols even appear on the outside of the elevator of the Prince's Court. Meaning someone needs to be either very sneaky or part of the Camarilla.
Fact: Fabien was the one who found and opened out cask.
Fact: Everyone is going nuts and there is chaos on the streets.
Fact: Anarchs are frenzying everywhere, with moderates not in sight.
Fact: Sheriff is nuts and rogue. Openly says fuck Camarilla and fuck the Prince.
Fact: That Toreador chick was pretty bland when I lied to her that Ventrue Lau was fine, like she was expecting the opposite.
With these I can make some assumptions. We have someone who has access to magical BS, someone that has access to even the Camarilla Court, someone that can use Fabien and someone with a motive, ruin Camarilla in Seattle, to do so.
It could be a Baali. They have access to magic BS and all the weird symbols and marking could be infernal. They are also very sneaky, sneaky enough get into places they shouldn't. But not only V5 is allergic to them until recently but it doesn't explain how Fabien got involved.
It could be a Tremere. They are primarily made out of magic BS. They are part of the Camarilla, which can cover the elevator and why Fabien was involved. But what is the motive? And who is it? Ventrue Lau told us that there is no chantry here. Is it Sofia? She knew of us but everyone we met knew of us. So that's not it either. Tremere Antitribu then? But Sabbat mostly fucked off to the Middle East.
It could be an Assamite. They have magic BS, stealth BS for Camarilla access for elevator mark and Fabien involvement but still...what is their motive? Are they Ur-Shulgi follower who hates Camarilla? Sabbat Assamite? Personal vendetta?
Whoever it is, they are probably behind all the Anarch nonsense and there is a decent possibility that they are working with that Toreador Progenitor. I don't know why Sheriff is nuts but perhaps he is a neutral party after he lost his Prince and hates the new one? They will be doing a grand ritual using our lost Elder powers
So no conclusive answer but hey, I think this is a pretty good estimate from someone who stopped playing after the first night.