Vote Thread for Ack's Omake Corner

[X] MirrorVerse - 6
[X] Alea Iacta Est - 5
[X] Recoil - 4
[X] Trump Card - 3
[X] One More Trigger - 2
[X] Confrontation II - 1

 

[] Marky's Angels - 13
[X] Wyvern - 6
[X] Recoil - 5
[X] I, Panacea - 4
[X] Security! - 3
[X] Alea Iacta Est - 2
[X] Trump Card - 1
[] Hostage Situation
[] One More Trigger

 

[X] Recoil - 6
[X] Trump Card - 5
[X] Wyvern - 1
[X] One More Trigger - 4
[X] All Alone - 3
[X] Hostage Situation - 2

 

[X] I, Panacea - 6
[X] Security! - 5
[X] Hostage Situation - 4
[X] Wyvern - 3
[X] Recoil - 2
[X] Confrontation II - 1

 

[X] Recoil - 6
[X] Security! - 5
[X] I, Panacea - 4
[X] Alea Iacta Est - 3
[X] Trump Card - 2
[X] Junior Hero - 1

 

[X] Danny & Taylor - 3
[X] Hostage Situation - 2
[X] Junior Hero - 1
[X] NSW - 6
[X] Recoil - 5
[X] Trump Card - 4

 

[X] MirrorVerse - 6
[X] Recoil - 5
[X] Trump Card - 4
[X] Security! - 3
[X] One More Trigger - 2
[X] Alea Iacta Est - 1

 

[X] Recoil - 6
[X] I, Panacea - 5
[X] Alea Iacta Est - 4
[X] Trump Card - 3
[X] Hostage Situation - 2
[X] Slippery Slope - 1

 

[X] Confrontation II - 6
[X] Wyvern - 5
[X] Trump Card - 4
[X] Recoil - 3
[X] All Alone - 2
[X] Nemesis - 1

 

[X] Alea Iacta Est - 6
[X] Recoil - 5
[X] Trump Card - 4
[X] I, Panacea - 3
[X] Hostage Situation - 2
[X] Danny & Taylor - 1

 

[X] MirrorVerse - 6
[X] All Alone - 5
[X] Slippery Slope - 4

[X] One More Trigger - 3
[X] Security! - 2
[X] Alea Iacta Est - 1

Willing to trade any votes -3 or under for an equivalent vote for MirrorVerse. Just tag me, or quote this post.

 

Yeah, Wyvern isn't having a very good time of it lately. My new, experimental predictive model even shows its average votes-per-round slipping below Alea Iacta Est, which is a first. We'll see if it continues falling in popularity.

Both my predictive models -- which I'm going to be calling Model A, the one I've been using all this time, and Model B, the new one -- agree on this. One More Trigger is going to win Vote 78 by a comfortable margin of 70-some votes, and Slippery Slope will likewise handily win Vote 79. Hostage Situation is indeed the on-paper winner in Vote 80, but the margin is only in the high 20s; enough of a shift in votes over the next couple rounds could change things one way or the other.

Really Bad End is indeed getting high in the vote-count, but it's doing so very slowly; the most popular stories are earning 4-5 times as many votes each round, making it very difficult for it to stay ahead. And the vote total to win is liable to only keep climbing, so it's got an even greater uphill fight. Neither of my models predict it winning any time within the next 10 rounds, and probably not for a few past that. We most likely won't see another chapter for it until after New Year's.

Alea Iacta Est has Round 81 nicely in hand, by a margin of about 50 votes. Not close enough for an upset unless things change dramatically, and I doubt such a popular story will falter that much. Even more secure in victory is Trump Card, liable to win Vote 82 in the 1200s and more than 130 votes ahead of the next highest story.

Then things get interesting. For the first several votes, my two predictive models have been mostly in agreement. There are a few minor differences in vote margins, but overall they've been within 10 votes of each other. For Vote 83, however, Model A predicts War Games winning in the mid-1100s, about 30 votes ahead of Security!, which then wins Vote 84 about 30 votes ahead of I, Panacea, which is secure in Vote 85 by more than 150 votes.

Model B has the exact same sequence of winners, but the margins are substantially different. It puts War Games about 15 votes further ahead and Security! 20-some votes behind, widening the margin to 70 votes and giving War Games an almost certain win. Security! is still only 30-some votes ahead of I, Panacea, which again comes in to win handily, though not by as big of a margin.

Votes 86 and 87 are even further apart. Both of them give Vote 86 to recent winner Recoil, but Model A has it just barely staying ahead of Wyvern, while Model B has it winning by 60+ votes. Round 87 also goes to Wyvern in both, but Model A gives it a hefty margin of 180+, while Model B puts it a mere 12 votes ahead of its rivals.

It'll be quite interesting to see where things go by the time we get there.

Rounds to win after Vote 87 vary somewhat between the two models:

Alea Iacta Est: 4
All Alone: 4-5
Bait & Switch: 21-24
Confrontation II: 8-9
Danny & Taylor: 8-12
Hostage Situation: 18-19
I, Panacea: 10
Junior Hero: 10-13
Meet the Heberts: 7-8
MirrorVerse: 1
NSW: 2-4
Nemesis: 16-17
One More Trigger: 11
Really Bad End: 2-3
Recoil: 10
Security!: 13
Slippery Slope: 15-17
Trump Card: 6-7
War Games: 14-15
Wyvern: 9-10

Again, those are counting from Vote 87 onwards.

Accuracy this round was different for each model.

Model A had an overall accuracy of 97.92%, with an average vote difference of 8.2. Most accurate in both proportion and absolute votes was Nemesis, which came in exactly on-target. Least accurate proportionally was Confrontation II, at only 87.96% of predicted votes, while least accurate in raw votes was poor Wyvern, slogging along 36 votes behind prediction.

Model B on the other hand had an overall accuracy of 98.46% and an average vote difference of 7.1; a noted improvement. Most accurate by its reckoning was Bait & Switch, which came in precisely on-target. Lease accurate proportionally was Recoil at only 90.15% of expected votes; least accurate in vote count was Wyvern again, but this time by only 28 votes.


At first glance it seems like Model B may be more accurate, but I'm going to let things play out for a while longer. I want to see if we can get a round where the two models predict different winners, and see how that turns out.



My vote:
[X] Meet the Heberts - 6
[X] NSW - 5
[X] War Games - 4
[X] One More Trigger - 3
[X] Security! - 2
[X] Recoil - 1

 

[X] War Games - 6
[X] Alea Iacta Est - 5
[X] MirrorVerse - 4
[X] Meet the Heberts - 3
[X] I, Panacea - 2

 

[X] All Alone - 6 (swapped for MirrorVerse with Anaja)
[X] MirrorVerse - 5 (swapped for All Alone with Snake/Eater)
[X] Slippery Slope - 4 (swapped for Confrontation II with Edale)
[X] War Games - 3 (swapped for Confrontation II with Subsider34)
[X] Confrontation II - 2
[X] Recoil - 1

 

[X] Meet the Heberts - 6
[X] NSW - 5
[X] Really Bad End - 4
[X] Hostage Situation - 3
[X] Confrontation II - 2
[X] Trump Card - 1

 

[X] Wyvern - 6
[X] Trump Card - 5
[X] Recoil - 4
[X] Alea Iacta Est - 3
[X] War Games - 2
[X] Hostage Situation - 1

 

[X] All Alone - 6
[X] Confrontation II - 5
[X] Wyvern - 4
[X] Trump Card - 3
[X] Alea Iacta Est - 2
[X] One More Trigger - 1

 

[X] Alea Iacta Est - 6
[X] War Games - 5
[X] Wyvern - 4
[X] Nemesis - 3
[X] Hostage Situation - 2
[X] Trump Card - 1

 

I find it amusing that for your Predictive model B, Bait & Switch came in dead on target only because I gave it 5 points that thyrfa posted up for Another Way.

 

[X] NSW - 6
[X] Danny & Taylor - 5
[X] Meet the Heberts - 4
[X] Security! - 3
[X] I, Panacea - 2
[X] Slippery Slope - 1

 

[X] War Games - 6
[X] Alea Iacta Est - 5
[X] Meet the Heberts - 4
[X] Wyvern - 3
[X] Danny & Taylor - 2
[X] Confrontation II - 1

 

[X] Trump Card - 6
[X] Danny & Taylor - 5
[X] Bait & Switch - 4
[X] Hostage Situation - 3
[X] Confrontation II - 2
[X] Wyvern - 1

 

[X] Wyvern - 6
[X] I, Panacea - 5
[X] Recoil - 4
[X] Slippery Slope - 3
[X] Alea Iacta Est - 2
[X] NSW - 1

 

[X] Really Bad End - 6
[X] War Games - 5
[X] One More Trigger - 4
[] Wyvern - 0
[X] All Alone - 3
[X] Trump Card - 2
[X] Alea Iacta Est - 1
[] Confrontation II - 0
[] Recoil - 0

 

[X] Nemesis - 6
[X] Junior Hero - 5
[X] Slippery Slope - 4
[X] Recoil - 3
[X] Hostage Situation - 2
[X] Wyvern - 1

 

[X] One More Trigger - 6
[X] War Games - 5
[X] Security! - 4
[X] Trump Card - 3
[X] I, Panacea - 2
[X] Wyvern - 1

 

[X] I, Panacea - 6
[X] Slippery Slope - 5
[X] Confrontation II - 4
[X] Security! - 3
[X] Hostage Situation - 2
[X] Alea Iacta Est - 1

Confrontation II/Slippery Slope -> Angush

 

[X] MirrorVerse - 6
[X] All Alone - 5
[X] War Games - 4
[X] Really Bad End - 3

The Ack Stock exchange and Vote Trading Post, sponsoring MirrorVerse. Just tag me, or quote this post.

 

[X] Junior Hero - 6
[X] Confrontation II - 5
[X] Meet the Heberts - 4
[X] Alea Iacta Est - 3
[X] Trump Card - 2
[X] One More Trigger - 1