Ack
(Verified Ratbag) (Unverified Great Old One)
- Joined
- Feb 12, 2014
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And the problem with that is?Dont believe his lies! It's theIlluminatiVote Traders at Work!
Wake up sheeple!
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And the problem with that is?Dont believe his lies! It's theIlluminatiVote Traders at Work!
Wake up sheeple!
Done![X] MirrorVerse - 6
[X] All Alone - 5
[X] War Games - 4
[X] Really Bad End - 3
The Ack Stock exchange and Vote Trading Post, sponsoring MirrorVerse. Just tag me, or quote this post.
The tradition must continue! we must overturn the tyranny of the majority!Dont believe his lies! It's theIlluminatiVote Traders at Work!
Wake up sheeple!
I try to wait till we've got 60 or so votes in. That gives a nice spread of numbers.Thanks for not tallying yet, Ack. I seem to be off my game lately in keeping up with the votes. Wouldn't want Security! to lose the points I'm giving it.
then probably Hostage Situation. Really Bad End will want a go on, but one of the other front runners might push it back a bit before it gets to the front.
Check out Jim Starluck 's spreadsheet for a reasonable prediction.
1) UP TO six votes. I will not count anything extra, and a write-in will likely be ignored (if I want to write a different story, I will, but at my own discretion). Suggestions are welcome, but I am under no obligation to carry them out. And just remember, the more stories I am writing, the longer it will take for your favourites to roll back around.
2) First vote is worth six points, second is worth five, and so on.
3) You can't vote twice on the same story. The voting code will count the last vote and ignore previous ones.
4) If I say "Voting is CLOSED", then this post comes up, with "Voting is OPEN" at the bottom, then you can vote again.
5) If I say "Voting will continue", it's still the same voting period. Voting has not restarted. You can not vote a second time.
[X] Alea Iacta Est - 6
[X] I, Panacea - 5
[X] Security! - 4
[X] Recoil - 3
[X] Trump Card - 2
[X] NSW - 1
Specifically: SQUARE brackets around an X, one space, and please spell at least the first word of the name of the story properly. Number of voting points comes last. Please try to format your vote properly, so as not to confuse the vote counter.
OK - my policy from this point is that I will copy top eligible vote of somebody who gives "I, Panacea" 6 points and quotes this post
Hostage Situation is probably going to hold its own this round. Both Model A and Model B have it winning by 40+ votes, which would require a fairly drastic shift in voting patterns to disrupt this late in the game.Hostage Situation is still a front runner, but Alea Iacta Est is coming up fast, and Trump Card even faster. Next few front runners are going to be very dicey indeed.
Given that I start job training in earnest on Monday, and I have no idea what sort of hours I'll be doing, 5 days is probably closer to the mark.Hostage Situation is probably going to hold its own this round. Both Model A and Model B have it winning by 40+ votes, which would require a fairly drastic shift in voting patterns to disrupt this late in the game.
Vote 81 will indeed be close, however. Both models put Alea Iacta Est ahead, but Model A has it winning by less than 30 votes, and Model B by less than 20. Two rounds out, that kind of shift could be achieved by just 2-3 people changing their top vote. Trump Card, on the other hand, has Vote 82 sewn up, as it is projected to win by 80-90 votes. Not much liable to change there. War Games is similarly secure in Vote 83, projected to win by at least 110 and up to nearly 150 votes.
Vote 84 is another potential close one. Security! is favored, but only by 20-30 votes, and it's much further out. This could change a fair bit. After that comes I, Pancea, which is a bit more sure to win Vote 85 by 60-100 votes.
Vote 86 is still a point of contention between my two predictive models, though they're starting to converge. Model A has Recoil winning, but the margin has been cut nearly in half, from 75 down to 39. Model B has MirrorVerse winning, and the margin has doubled from 10 to 20. At this point I strongly suspect that MirrorVerse will emerge the victor, but time will tell.
The next couple rounds are also points of disagreement based on this, but the results have changed. Model A is now calling for MirrorVerse to win Vote 87 by 1 vote, where it previously had Wyvern winning. Now it pushes Wyvern back to Vote 88, where it wins by 160+ votes.
Model B, on the other hand, gives Vote 87 to Recoil as a consolation prize for losing to MirrorVerse, by a margin of 140+ votes. It makes Wyvern wait until Vote 88, and even then only has it winning by 50-some votes. Oh, how the mighty have fallen.
Both models start to agree again when we reach Vote 89, which goes to NSW. They still differ somewhat; Model A has it only winning by 10 votes, Model B is more confident it'll win by 40+. We'll have to see how it winds up when we get to that point, as it'll most likely be in late December, if not after New Year's.
Rounds to win past Vote 89 are:
Alea Iacta Est: 3
All Alone: 3
Bait & Switch: 26-31
Confrontation II: 7-8
Danny & Taylor: 6-8
Hostage Situation: 17
I, Panacea: 8-9
Junior Hero: 13-14
Meet the Heberts: 4-6
MirrorVerse: 21-24
NSW: 20-22
Nemesis: 18
One More Trigger: 11-15
Really Bad End: 1
Recoil: 8-9
Security!: 12-13
Slippery Slope: 15-19
Trump Card: 5
War Games: 11-12
Wyvern: 9-10
As usual, this is counting from Vote 89 on.
Once again, accuracy between the two models differed.
Oldschool Model A was overall 96.26% accurate, with an average vote discrepancy of 9. Most accurate was Junior Hero, which came in exactly on the money. Least accurate proportionally was recent winner One More Trigger, which only earned 62.71% of expected votes. Least accurate in raw vote count was Wyvern, which continues to underperform -- this time to the tune of 26 votes.
Newschool Model B, on the other hand, scored an overall accuracy of 97.13%, with an average vote discrepancy of 7. Most accurate here was Hostage Situation, which was 1 vote off and 99.94% accurate. Least accurate proportionally was also One More Trigger, here with 68.10%. Least accurate in vote count was different here; Meet the Heberts brought home 19 more votes than expected (and then did all kinds of lewd things with them).
The two models are also disagreeing on how frequently future updates will come out; Model A is predicting a 5-day interval, while Model B is more optimistic with a 4-day interval. We'll see which one is closer.