Hostage Situation is still a front runner, but Alea Iacta Est is coming up fast, and Trump Card even faster. Next few front runners are going to be very dicey indeed.
Hostage Situation is probably going to hold its own this round. Both Model A and Model B have it winning by 40+ votes, which would require a fairly drastic shift in voting patterns to disrupt this late in the game.
Vote 81 will indeed be close, however. Both models put
Alea Iacta Est ahead, but Model A has it winning by less than 30 votes, and Model B by less than 20. Two rounds out, that kind of shift could be achieved by just 2-3 people changing their top vote.
Trump Card, on the other hand, has Vote 82 sewn up, as it is projected to win by 80-90 votes. Not much liable to change there.
War Games is similarly secure in Vote 83, projected to win by at least 110 and up to nearly 150 votes.
Vote 84 is another potential close one.
Security! is favored, but only by 20-30 votes, and it's much further out. This could change a fair bit. After that comes
I, Pancea, which is a bit more sure to win Vote 85 by 60-100 votes.
Vote 86 is still a point of contention between my two predictive models, though they're starting to converge. Model A has
Recoil winning, but the margin has been cut nearly in half, from 75 down to 39. Model B has
MirrorVerse winning, and the margin has doubled from 10 to 20. At this point I strongly suspect that MirrorVerse will emerge the victor, but time will tell.
The next couple rounds are also points of disagreement based on this, but the results have changed. Model A is now calling for
MirrorVerse to win Vote 87 by 1 vote, where it previously had
Wyvern winning. Now it pushes Wyvern back to Vote 88, where it wins by 160+ votes.
Model B, on the other hand, gives Vote 87 to
Recoil as a consolation prize for losing to MirrorVerse, by a margin of 140+ votes. It makes
Wyvern wait until Vote 88, and even then only has it winning by 50-some votes. Oh, how the mighty have fallen.
Both models start to agree again when we reach Vote 89, which goes to
NSW. They still differ somewhat; Model A has it only winning by 10 votes, Model B is more confident it'll win by 40+. We'll have to see how it winds up when we get to that point, as it'll most likely be in late December, if not after New Year's.
Rounds to win past Vote 89 are:
Alea Iacta Est: 3
All Alone: 3
Bait & Switch: 26-31
Confrontation II: 7-8
Danny & Taylor: 6-8
Hostage Situation: 17
I, Panacea: 8-9
Junior Hero: 13-14
Meet the Heberts: 4-6
MirrorVerse: 21-24
NSW: 20-22
Nemesis: 18
One More Trigger: 11-15
Really Bad End: 1
Recoil: 8-9
Security!: 12-13
Slippery Slope: 15-19
Trump Card: 5
War Games: 11-12
Wyvern: 9-10
As usual, this is counting from Vote 89 on.
Once again, accuracy between the two models differed.
Oldschool Model A was overall 96.26% accurate, with an average vote discrepancy of 9. Most accurate was
Junior Hero, which came in exactly on the money. Least accurate proportionally was recent winner
One More Trigger, which only earned 62.71% of expected votes. Least accurate in raw vote count was
Wyvern, which continues to underperform -- this time to the tune of 26 votes.
Newschool Model B, on the other hand, scored an overall accuracy of 97.13%, with an average vote discrepancy of 7. Most accurate here was
Hostage Situation, which was 1 vote off and 99.94% accurate. Least accurate proportionally was also
One More Trigger, here with 68.10%. Least accurate in vote count was different here;
Meet the Heberts brought home 19 more votes than expected (and then did all kinds of lewd things with them).
The two models are also disagreeing on how frequently future updates will come out; Model A is predicting a 5-day interval, while Model B is more optimistic with a 4-day interval. We'll see which one is closer.
My vote:
[X] Meet the Heberts - 6
[X] NSW - 5
[X] War Games - 4
[X] One More Trigger - 3
[X] Security! - 2
[X] Recoil - 1