Jim Starluck
CO, ICS Vanguard
- Joined
- Aug 3, 2014
- Messages
- 647
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Yeah, Trump Card and War Games have the next two votes sewn up pretty well. Only difference between Model A and Model B are the margins, but they both have Trump Card winning Vote 82 by 50+ and War Games winning Vote 83 by 140+, at minimum. And yes, while Really Bad End is plugging along like a champ, it looks like a number of other stories are liable to lap it before it can get an update.Okay, that was a close one. Alea Iacta Est slid into home just one point ahead of Trump Card, with War Games trailing by 27 points, and Really Bad End the only other story in four digits at 1005. However, I suspect that before RBE gets a look in, we'll see I, Panacea and Security! in no particular order. Recoil and Wyvern might even push their way in line first as well, the rude buggers
Vote 84 is probably going to Security!. Margins have pretty consistently been in the 20s-30s over the last several prediction cycles, so unless people are determined to change things up I kinda doubt it'll shift. Still three votes to go, though, so we'll see. I, Panacea is a lot more certain to win Vote 85; margin is at least 50 and upwards of 90+, so probably not gonna change.
And both models are finally agreeing that MirrorVerse is going to win in Vote 86. Model A is giving it only a 17-vote margin, while Model B is confident it'll win by nearly 80. They also both agree that Recoil will win Vote 87, followed by Wyvern in Vote 88, by safe margins in both cases.
Then it's finally Really Bad End's turn in Vote 89, but it's still tentative. Model A has it winning by a mere 6 votes; Model B is a little more generous at 21. And this is 8 votes out, so those margins could widen or vanish in a single round easily. The next likely winner after that is NSW, by anywhere from 160-230+ votes. Again, pretty far out, but that'd take a lot more work to shift. If anything, NSW may overtake RBE, but we'll see.
And last but not least, Vote 91 has Alea Iacta Est coming back around for another pass.
Rounds to win past 91:
Alea Iacta Est: 10-11
All Alone: 4
Bait & Switch: 27-31
Confrontation II: 5
Danny & Taylor: 7
Hostage Situation: 17
I, Panacea: 7
Junior Hero:12-14
Meet the Heberts: 3-4
MirrorVerse: 19-21
NSW: 22-23
Nemesis: 18
One More Trigger: 12-16
Really Bad End: 43-47
Recoil: 7-8
Security!: 10-12
Slippery Slope: 10-13
Trump Card: 3
War Games: 8-9
Wyvern: 8
Again, that's counting from Vote 91.
Model A was again more accurate than Model B this round, but by a much smaller margin -- 97.46% to 97.17% overall.
For Model A, most accurate was Nemesis at exactly 100%. Least accurate was Slippery Slope in both categories, 20 votes ahead of expected and only 83.33% accurate. Average difference between prediction and results was 9 votes.
Model B's most accurate was Trump Card, again at 100%. Least accurate proportionally was also Slippery Slope at 84.17%, but it put Security! farther off in raw vote count, where it came in 30 votes behind its prediction. Average difference here was 10 votes.
And, of course, my vote:
[X] Meet the Heberts - 6
[X] NSW - 5
[X] War Games - 4
[X] One More Trigger - 3
[X] Security! - 2
[X] Recoil - 1
