Trump Card gets its turn this round; you get to see the climactic fight between Hax, mistress of powers, and Lung, master of escalation. And next round, it's almost certain to be the next installment of War Games, featuring Geneva Hastings and her Polity crew, fresh to Brockton Bay and Earth Bet, five hundred years and a few universes out of sync. Following that, I see Security! as having a good chance, perhaps followed by I, Pancea and MirrorVerse and maybe NSW before Really Bad End gets a go on.
Anyway, time will tell.
Not if I have anything to say about it!
Though that's more or less right, with a few caveats.
War Games is all but certain to win Vote 83. Both models are predicting a win in the mid-1200s, around 150 above the competition.
Security! is a little less secure in Vote 84; margin is still hovering around 30 votes, so a determined effort could push it back a spot.
I, Panacea and
MirrorVerse are also pretty spot-on for Votes 85 and 86; neither is particularly close save for the latter in Model A, and even then it's 40 votes -- not an easy difference to overcome.
After that, though, it's a couple of the top dogs back in action.
Recoil will most likely take Vote 87 and
Wyvern Vote 88, both by substantially safe margins in both models. Then we have a shift since my previous prediction. Vote 89 was previously slated for Really Bad End, but is now projected to go to
NSW by a very close margin -- less than 10 votes in both models. This is not overly surprising; RBE's hold on Vote 89 was never that solid and has only eroded over the last few rounds.
Rest assured, fans of doom and gloom;
Really Bad End has only been pushed back to Vote 90, which it is practically guaranteed to win by a huge margin. It's had this coming for a long time; RBE is currently the one fic out of all of Ack's stories that has gone the longest without winning a vote -- not since Vote 18, all the way back on March 27th, has it come out on top. The total votes required to win has more than doubled since then, from around 500 to more than 1,000, and it only seems likely to climb higher.
Anyway, after that we have recently-updated
Alea Iacta Est coming back around for another pass in Vote 91; Model A has it winning by 110+ votes, Model B by 60+. Vote 92, however, they disagree on. Model A gives it to
All Alone by 40-some votes, Model B is rooting for
Danny & Taylor with a margin in the 20s. Another point of divergence that it will be interesting to see the result of.
After Vote 92, estimated rounds-to-win are:
Alea Iacta Est: 10-11
All Alone: 3 or 23
Bait & Switch: 24-25
Confrontation II: 4
Danny & Taylor: 5 or 33
Hostage Situation: 12-16
I, Panacea: 6
Junior Hero: 9-12
Meet the Heberts: 3
MirrorVerse: 17-19
NSW: 19-20
Nemesis: 16
One More Trigger: 10-11
Really Bad End: 43-47
Recoil: 6
Security!: 9
Slippery Slope: 10-12
Trump Card: 2
War Games: 7
Wyvern: 7
Again, this is counting from Vote 92, not the current vote.
Accuracy this round was back towards what I originally expected: Model B, the refined version, a little bit more accurate than Model A, the classic edition.
Model A was 97.87% accurate on average. Most accurate proportionally was
Security! at 99.90%, while raw vote count was a tie between that and
Nemesis, which were each exactly 1 off. Least accurate was
Hostage Situation on both counts; it came in 18 votes ahead of predictions, only 83.33% accurate. Average difference between prediction and result was 6 votes.
Model B was 98.29% accurate overall. Most accurate in both categories was
Alea Iacta Est, which came in exactly on-target at 100% accurate. Least accurate was, oddly enough, the exact same story as for Model B --
Hostage Situation -- and for the exact same amount, too: 18 votes off, 83.33% accuracy. Average difference was only 5 votes.
My own vote:
[X] Meet the Heberts - 6
[X] NSW - 5
[X] War Games - 4
[X] One More Trigger - 3
[X] Security! - 2
[X] Recoil - 1
