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Vote Thread for Ack's Omake Corner

Reader mode
[X] NSW - 6
[X] I, Panacea - 5
[X] Security! - 4
[X] Trump Card - 3
[X] Hostage Situation - 2
[X] Meet the Heberts - 1
 
Last edited:
Zooboss Spreadsheet Link
Accuracy

So for my predictions I was off by 129 votes out of 1,329 so I was 12.72% off in total. (88.28% accuracy overall). Averaging the individual accuracies (of predicted gains) gives 84.17% accuracy, which tells me some stories were outliers in terms of how badly they were predicted. In terms of predicting the totals (which isn't really an accurate measure of accuracy because of how the known totals offsets it, there was an overall accuracy of 98.35% and an average one of 97.23%).

In terms of gain accuracy:

Most Accurate: All Alone, Meet the Heberts, One More Trigger (100%)
Least Accurate: Nemesis (28 predicted vs 50: 21.43%) NSW (55 predicted vs 36: 47.27%), Security! (101 predicted vs 65: 64.36%)

We also seemingly had one less voter than last time.

Looking at the predicted gains over time: the spreadsheet is predicting that, around vote 78, Recoil will take Wyvern's place as the most voted story.[/B]

Predictions

For Vote 70, All Alone (969 predicted) seems sure to win, with Trump Card (871 predicted) coming in as a distant second.

For Vote 71, Trump Card (978 predicted) is most likely to win although Alea Iacta Est (931 is catching up). Predicted Close Vote.

For Vote 72, Alea Iacta Est (1,056 predicted) is almost guaranteed to win, passing the 1,000 vote mark, with Meet the Heberts (965 predicted) almost a hundred votes behind.

For Vote 73, my last prediction, Meet the Heberts (1,030 predicted) winning, appears to be in error, as I, Panacea (1,043 predicted) surpasses it slightly. Predicted Very Close Vote.

For Vote 74, Meet the Heberts (1,095 predicted) will finally manage a victory, with the runner up, One More Trigger (953 predicted) over a hundred points behind.

Vote 75: Normally I won't bother trying to predict votes more than 5 votes away due to butterfly errors, but it looks like the top three will be: Wyvern (1,048) One More Trigger (1,033) and Slippery Slope (1,024). In other words a ridiculously close vote. With a great enough effort, it might even manage to be a three way tie.[/B]
My Own Vote

[X] I, Panacea - 6
[X] MirrorVerse - 5
[X] Slippery Slope - 4
[X] One More Trigger - 3
[X] Hostage Situation - 2
[X] Security! -1

Photon said:
My policy from this point is that I will copy top eligible vote of somebody who gives "I, Panacea" 6 points and quotes this offer.
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...
Can you do One More Trigger for this please? I'm using MirrorVerse for another part of The ExchangeTM​
Snake/Eater said:
[X] MirrorVerse - 6

The Ack Stock Exchange is open

if someone kindly votes for MirrorVerse, i'l match that value (or nearest free value) vote with the fic of your choosing.
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...
One More Trigger Please.[/B]
 
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Locked in:
[X] MirrorVerse - 4

Changeable:
[X] Confrontation II - 6
[X] All Alone - 5
[X] Recoil - 3
[X] Alea Iacta Est - 2
[X] Wyvern - 1

Anyone want to make a long-term vote swap arrangement? As in, I vote for something you want, you give the same value vote to Confrontation II (preferred) or All Alone, and we do that for the rest of our lives?
 
Last edited:
Angush said:
Anyone want to make a long-term vote swap arrangement? As in, I vote for something you want, you give the same value vote to Confrontation II (preferred) or All Alone, and we do that for the rest of our lives?
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...
Sure I'll take All Alone, in exchange for MirrorVerse at - 4
 
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Reactions: Ack
[X] Meet the Heberts - 6
[X] NSW - 5
[X] Really Bad End - 4
[X] Confrontation II - 3
[X] Hostage Situation - 2
[X] Trump Card - 1
 
[X] Nemesis - 6
[X] Bait & Switch - 5
[X] NSW - 4
[X] Wyvern - 3
[X] Alea Iacta Est - 2
[X] Recoil - 1
 
[X] All Alone - 6
[X] Really Bad End - 5
[X] Confrontation II - 4
[X] Trump Card - 3
[X] Alea Iacta Est - 2
[X] War Games - 1
[] Recoil - 0
[] Wyvern - 0
 
[X] I, Panacea - 6
[X] Slippery Slope - 5
[X] Security! - 4
[X] Hostage Situation - 3
[X] Wyvern - 2
[X] Alea Iacta Est - 1

Photon said:
OK - my policy from this point is that I will
copy top eligible vote of somebody who gives "I, Panacea" 6 points and quotes this post
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...

Somehow, despite refreshing the page about 20 times between when votes closed for the last vote and now checking for new posts, including four times today, I have managed to completely miss that the new vote had started... Weird.
 
[X] MirrorVerse - 6
[X] Security! - 5
[X] All Alone - 4
[X] One More Trigger - 3
[X] Alea Iacta Est - 2
[X] Wyvern - 1

Snake/Eater said:
[X] MirrorVerse - 6
[X] One More Trigger - 5
[X] All Alone - 4

The Ack Stock Exchange is open

if someone kindly votes for MirrorVerse, i'l match that value (or nearest free value) vote with the fic of your choosing.
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...
Security! - 3?
 
[X] Recoil - 6
[X] Security! - 5
[X] I, Panacea - 4
[X] Alea Iacta Est - 3
[X] Trump Card - 2
[X] Junior Hero - 1
 
Okay! Finally home and free to write!

Ack said:
Well, Security didn't quite make the thousand mark, but it's made the pick this time. Tipped for the 900s, and possible winner, next voting round is All Alone; however, Trump Card is coming up fast. There's really nothing else that can catch it.
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...
Yes, All Alone has Vote 70 more or less sewed up tight; even if Trump Card is close, it'd need 80 votes to close the gap -- a mighty big difference to swing. It should take Vote 71, though, even if Alea Iacta Est is right behind it -- that's another 80-ish vote gap, and while AIE is a marginally faster vote-getter, Trump Card has too much of a lead to make an overtake likely. So that's Vote 70 going to All Alone, 71 to Trump Card, and 72 going to AIE -- the last being likely to join the 1k Club as it wins.

After that, though, we've got multiple close calls coming up! Vote 73 will be a narrow contest between Meet the Heberts and I, Panacea, with MtH holding a fingernail-thin lead. That contest could go either way, depending on how the votes fall. Whoever wins 73, the other will win 74; the competition is about 200 votes behind.

Vote 75 will be another close one, though, as it looks like recently-updated Wyvern, One More Trigger, and Recoil will all be closing in on the mid-900s around the same time. At present it looks to be Wyvern in Vote 75, Recoil in Vote 76 and OMT in Vote 77, but all that could change as we get closer -- the margins here are very close.

And the pressure won't let up! Vote 78 may be another close finish, this time with Slippery Slope holding a narrow lead over Confrontation II. As has been the pattern, whichever of them falls behind can be assured to win the next round handily.

We're looking at almost every winner for the next month either coming in the 900s or 1,000s, with the balance of them over the 1k mark. Vote inflation is continuing to to drive numbers higher and higher, and it doesn't look like it'll be slowing down anytime soon.


In accuracy this last round, we had some very accurate results and one very inaccurate. Bait and Switch, Hostage Situation and Meet the Heberts all came in exactly one vote ahead of predicted, with MtH taking home the trophy for proportional accuracy at 99.87%. On the flipside, NSW underperformed drastically, earning 25 less votes than anticipated -- it only brought in 26 votes this time, its lowest earning since February. As a whole, results were about 96.88% accurate.

Current rankings for average vote-earners (this time including changes from last ranking):

1: Wyvern - 159 (down 1)
2: Alea Iacta Est - 124
3: Recoil - 116 (up 1)
4: Trump Card - 112 (down 1)
5: I, Panacea - 98 (up 2)
6: Security! - 78 (down 1)
7: Meet the Heberts - 64
8: One More Trigger - 63 (up 1)
9: All Alone - 55 (up 1)
10: NSW - 49 (down 2)
11: TIED! - 48
- Slippery Slope (up 1)
- Confrontation II (up 2)
12: Hostage Situation - 44
13: War Games - 41 (up 1)
14: MirrorVerse - 33 (up 1)
15: Nemesis - 28 (up 2)
16: Danny & Taylor - 22
17: Junior Hero - 21 (up 1)
18: Really Bad End - 20
19: Bait & Switch - 19 (down 1)



[X] Meet the Heberts - 6
[X] NSW - 5
[X] War Games - 4
[X] One More Trigger - 3
[X] Security! - 2
[X] Recoil - 1
 
[X] Recoil - 6
[X] I, Panacea - 5
[X] Alea Iacta Est - 4
[X] Trump Card - 3
[X] Hostage Situation - 2
[X] Slippery Slope - 1
 
[X] Wyvern - 6
[X] Alea Iacta Est - 5
[X] I, Panacea - 4
[X] One More Trigger - 3
[X] Nemesis - 2
[X] Slippery Slope - 1
 
[X] Alea Iacta Est - 5
[X] Confrontation II - 6
[X] Hostage Situation - 2
[X] Junior Hero - 1
[X] Meet the Heberts - 4
[X] Recoil - 3
 
[X] Recoil - 6
[X] Trump Card - 5
[X] Wyvern - 2
[X] One More Trigger - 3
[X] All Alone - 4
[X] Hostage Situation - 1
 
[X] I, Panacea - 6
[X] Meet the Heberts - 5
[X] Really Bad End - 4
[X] MirrorVerse - 3
[X] Danny & Taylor - 2
[X] NSW - 1

Photon said:
OK - my policy from this point is that I will copy top eligible vote of somebody who gives "I, Panacea" 6 points and quotes this post
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...
hey again!

Snake/Eater said:
[X] MirrorVerse - 6
[X] One More Trigger - 5
[X] All Alone - 4
[X] Security! - 3

The Ack Stock Exchange is open

if someone kindly votes for MirrorVerse, i'l match that value (or nearest free value) vote with the fic of your choosing.
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...

How about Meet the Heberts?

Prince Charon said:
[X] MirrorVerse - 6
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...
Sinner_sb said:
[X] NSW - 6
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...
would you guys be willing to add on a vote for Meet the Heberts?
 
Again I was lost in multitude of Ack's fics so I went and reread the one I remembered virtually nothing about: All Alone.
Know what? I change my usual vote from now on.

[X] All Alone - 6
[X] One More Trigger - 5
[X] I, Panacea - 4
[X] Trump Card - 3
[X] Security! - 2
[X] Wyvern - 1
 
[X] Alea Iacta Est - 6
[X] Recoil - 5
[X] Trump Card - 4
[X] Security! - 3
[X] Junior Hero - 2
[X] Nemesis - 1
 
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