Oh, wow. How the heck did I manage to miss this all of yesterday?
Following Meet the Heberts, we have Confrontation II, which will in turn be almost certainly be followed by Recoil. After that, it gets a bit hazier ...
Mmm... I wouldn't be so sure of that.
The predictions currently put
Wyvern as the winner of Vote 76, but by only a 15-vote margin, so an upset is decidedly possible. But double-checking Wyvern's performance, its vote-earning seems to have dropped off significantly -- in the last 5 rounds, only once did it earn more than 150. Vote 75 even saw it yield the Most-Votes-A-Round title to none other than
Recoil, but only by a single vote. These are two of the most popular vote-getters, and they appear to be neck-and-neck.
Wyvern and Recoil currently have vote totals only 3 votes apart, and last round earned nearly identical amounts of votes. I think Vote 76 may well be another
Too Close To Call.
After that, though, it gets a bit more clear. Whoever of those two fails to win Vote 76 will definitely take Vote 77, and most likely in the 1,200+ range. No competition in sight; margin is liable to be 170+. Vote 78 will likely go to
One More Trigger, by a healthy margin of 50 votes, then Vote 79 to
Slippery Slope by a margin of 100+.
Hostage Situation probably takes Vote 80, followed by
Alea Iacta Est taking Vote 81, each with a margin of 50+ -- far enough ahead that an upset is unlikely, but by this point we're looking more than two weeks out, so things could change in the meantime. Vote 82 goes to
Trump Card by a 140+ margin; doubt that'll shift much.
Votes 83 and 84 are a bit more tenuous.
Security!, and then
I, Panacea are predicted to win, but only by margins of 40 and 24, respectively. Things could definitely shift by the time we get there.
Vote 85 is supposedly going to
Wyvern, but with the doubts about its performance above, that may change. In fact, experimenting with altering Wyvern's vote-rate shows that if it continues to slide,
War Games may overtake it by that point -- but by then we'll most likely be in early December, so again, who knows.
Past that point, estimated rounds-to-win are as follows:
Alea Iacta Est: 6
All Alone: 6
Bait & Switch: 27
Confrontation II: 8
Danny & Taylor: 16
Hostage Situation: 21
I, Panacea: 11
Junior Hero: 15
Meet the Heberts: 8
MirrorVerse: 3
NSW: 6
Nemesis: 18
One More Trigger: 12
Really Bad End: 2
Recoil: 2
Security!: 13
Slippery Slope: 16
Trump Card: 9
War Games: 1
Wyvern: 8
Again, that count starts from
Vote 85.
Overall accuracy this last round was 97.68%. Most accurate was
Nemesis, which came in exactly as predicted, 100% accurate. Least accurate proportionally was recent winner
Meet the Heberts, which came in at only 81.82% of expected votes. Least accurate in raw vote count was a tie: both
Confrontation II and
War Games came in 21 votes ahead of predictions.
Current vote-earner rankings:
1: Wyvern - 145 - down 4
2: Alea Iacta Est - 128 - up 1
3: Recoil - 124
4: I, Panacea - 109
5: Trump Card -108 - up 1
6: Security! - 81 - down 1
7: Confrontation II - 66 - up 1
8: Meet the Heberts - 65 - down 1
9: One More Trigger - 63 - down 1
10: All Alone - 61 - up 1
11: War Games - 59 - up 3
12: Slippery Slope - 56
13: NSW - 50 - up 1
14: Hostage Situation - 47
15: MirrorVerse - 45 - up 2
16: Really Bad End - 27 - up 1
17: TIED!
- Nemesis - 25
- Danny & Taylor - 25
18: TIED!
- Junior Hero - 18 - down 1
- Bait & Switch - 18
My own vote:
[X] Meet the Heberts - 6
[X] NSW - 5
[X] War Games - 4
[X] One More Trigger - 3
[X] Security! - 2
[X] Recoil - 1
And now to finally go read Meet the Heberts... still can't believe I completely missed it by a
day...