Esquestria: The House of the Sun - A pony cultist experience

Greymere · Apr 15, 2026

OurLadyOfWires said:
-She will be AWAY AT THE EXPEDITION when Cadance rolls her dice, and will not be able to react quickly to whatever happens.

@OurLadyOfWires Just to be sure, but our 5 AP of assistance still takes full effect, right? The only thing that it affects is our reaction time if something goes wrong?

OurLadyOfWires · Apr 15, 2026

Greymere said:
@OurLadyOfWires Just to be sure, but our 5 AP of assistance still takes full effect, right? The only thing that it affects is our reaction time if something goes wrong?

Yes. Cadance's dice roll will (mechanically) use the full power of all your assistance. Narratively, I'll sprinkle the effect of your help over the course of the turn, but Cadance will roll with her "+5 (Velvet)" bonus under its own mechanical rules.

More on that later. The dice roll itself will be a public on-the-spot d100 roll with the site randomizer, for dramatic effect. I'm making a point of not rolling it in the background so I storyboard this turn with the honest ignorance of what the hell can happen.

Oh, and to be clear, when I say "Velvet's actions may happen before or after the roll" I mean all actions. Yours, your followers', Bureau, etc.

Spacemurica · Apr 15, 2026

[X] (VELVET) You will NOT join the Bureau in the expedition.

This feels pretty clear to me, we need
to be there. The question is with the other expedition vote.

[X] (CHERENKOLT) Cherenkolt will focus on aiding the detectives.

I think this would be the most useful personally, but an argument could be made for any option

Also, just for fun, let's see what the in forum dice roller for this site looks like

spiderhellian · Apr 15, 2026

There were a few moments this update that made me think "I can't believe this is actually happening".

OurLadyOfWires said:
And the hint, just the slightest hint, that he should be ready to take their family and run should something particularly strange happen in the sky.

This quote, making very clear the stakes for some of this turn's dice rolls.

The snippet from Baldomare, as we seek her friendship -- and hope to still obtain her sacrament(s). With the weight that each entail.

But more than anything, the letter to Mareinette. I'm not sure the last time we've addressed Mareinette -- often we're held at slight remove with her scenes, so much going unsaid amidst a shouted [GRAIL!]. Or she's played more for comedy, the horror latent enough that it can be hinted at around the edges.

And then:

OurLadyOfWires said:
My most esteemed Lady Mareinette,

And then: that entire letter.

It's happening.

I wanted it to happen, indeed I tried pretty hard to make it happen, I'm quite glad it's happening.

It still hits home. It's the release of a tension that dates back to basically when I started participating in this quest, finally snapping like a cord too tightly wound.

A lot is up in the air this update, and this is not.

It's going to be one hell of a Turn.

spiderhellian · Apr 15, 2026

Okay, on a separate note, does anyone have a clue what the expedition plans were? Was it going to be Axe + Cherenkolt on expedition (with Grail to cover her social maluses), and then Velvet getting her hooves dirty with studying the carcass/Neighnea?

Sending Velvet + Axe + Cherenkolt feels a little overkill. And sending Velvet away seems... very much non-ideal, reaction time (especially in the bad outcome) feels valuable. But sending Axe alone really feels like its setting up for social pain points, and leading the Lunar Bureau on this strange affair is going to have lots of social interaction.

So I think the original plan stands up pretty well. Honestly, neither of the other two actions are that important to get done before the Celestia roll: Whatever clues we'd get on Neighnea, or hints to the Changelings + boosts to the Bureau to dissect, if we're going All In next turn both are fairly irrelevant. We won't be taking more Neighnea actions, and the Bureau won't do (that) much. Especially in comparison to locking in that L7 book we need for Baldomare befriending.

[X] (VELVET) You will NOT join the Bureau in the expedition.
[X] (CHERENKOLT) Cherenkolt will personally join the expedition.

Earth-Destroyer · Apr 15, 2026

[X] (VELVET) You will personally join the Bureau in the expedition.
[X] (CHERENKOLT) Cherenkolt will focus on aiding the detectives.

I want to find out what Neighnia has been up to.

Shaper47 · Apr 15, 2026

[X] (VELVET) You will personally join the Bureau in the expedition.
[X] (CHERENKOLT) Cherenkolt will personally join the expedition.

Without Velvet I really don't like the odds of the expedition.

CementCitron · Apr 15, 2026

[X] (VELVET) You will NOT join the Bureau in the expedition.

We need to be close to our family, should we need to run.

[X] (CHERENKOLT) Cherenkolt will personally join the expedition

Solace2117 · Apr 15, 2026

[X] (VELVET) You will NOT join the Bureau in the expedition.
[X] (CHERENKOLT) Cherenkolt will personally join the expedition.

I don't think we need Velvet there. I think we'd probably be safe with just Axe, at least to get the book. Even if Cadence succeeds, I doubt we have many turns left. Send Cherenkolt to make sure we get the book and maybe find a bit extra.

No matter what happens I'm excited for what's to come.

CementCitron said:
I think it's important to think about what happens in terms of what happens should Cadance's roll fail. I don't see the immediate benefit that the quarry of Yuxtebai could have if everything goes burning around us. The argument could be made that kboledge of the changelings could be more important if we lose access to the burrow, but personaly I feel like the NAME of winter is the bigger adversary here.(One that we could at least in theory use to our advantage, I quite doubt we will be making diplomatic relations to the changelings anytime soon.)

This expedition is to get the book to befriend Baldomare. If Cadence fails, Neighnia doesn't matter. We won't have time to deal with her because we'll most likely have to immediately go All in. Realistically we're probably not going to have time to deal with her anyways, even if Cadence succeeds.

LieutenantSpirit · Apr 15, 2026

[X] (VELVET) You will NOT join the Bureau in the expedition.
[X] (CHERENKOLT) Cherenkolt will personally join the expedition.

ses · Apr 15, 2026

[X] (VELVET) You will personally join the Bureau in the expedition
[X] (CHERENKOLT) Cherenkolt will personally join the expedition.

Velvet's numbers are absolutely massive, and we can't afford to fail this expedition much more than we can fail the cadance roll... and Velvet doesn't actually have the power to influence the Cadance roll. We need to trust that our 5 AP spent will set the stage for Cadance to perform, because that's what's going to happen either way. This is Cadance's show, and the ability to "react" to the roll going poorly... means, what, we'll be able to All In instead of Game Over if we roll a natural 1? We're not at minimum viable all in either way, and we need to just maintain faith that Cadance will roll good so that we're ready to All In in the next turn or two.

That's +20 Winter and a reroll and +15 Heart and +25 Moth and +20 Lantern and....
Well, it's a big difference for passing a Long expedition's worth of obstacles that all need to be passed in order to get Baldomare. Which we CANNOT AFFORD to fuck up. And this is something Velvet's presence actually can change, unlike "being able to react" which doesn't actually change the outcome.

Uruguayan spider · Apr 15, 2026

[X] (VELVET) You will personally join the Bureau in the expedition
[X] (CHERENKOLT) Cherenkolt will personally join the expedition.

Potdl · Apr 15, 2026

[X] (VELVET) You will NOT join the Bureau in the expedition.
[X] (CHERENKOLT) Cherenkolt will personally join the expedition.

DelightedOne · Apr 15, 2026

I don't have much to say about this.

[X] (VELVET) You will NOT join the Bureau in the expedition.

I think this is the best option, the second Love's Chosen shouldn't be away from Love in a situation like this. And I am very interested in the thing, so Velvet staying to help study it is good in my vision. Besides that, having the Linchpin ready to react in case something goes wrong seems prudent.

[X] (CHERENKOLT) Cherenkolt will personally join the expedition.

I was a bit indecisive with Cherenkolt but seeing some of the discussion and remembering the original reason why we are getting our hoofs dirty(and also the true prize in the Quarry) made me decide to send him away.

ses · Apr 15, 2026

Failure in the quarry is UTTERLY crippling to our plans, and Velvet can actually affect the course of the expedition.

The Royal Apartments are a Cadance Episode. Velvet will not be in the room when it happens no matter which option we pick. We do not have the ability to alter what happens in the room. All of our efforts are in the preparations to make Cadance as well off as possible beforehand, but Velvet can't change anything at the actual moment. She can change things at the expedition we can't afford to fail.

spiderhellian · Apr 15, 2026

I think that's a good point. If Cadance rolls poorly, we're going All In whether we react quickly or slowly.

And in the case where we're going All In, getting Baldomare is really exceedingly valuable.

It's mostly if we want to gamble on the Qiarry being feasible with Bureau + 2 Names. I kind of feel it should be? But it's true that we haven't done Long Expeditions and Velvet's well-roundness is very very nice for them.

ses · Apr 15, 2026

spiderhellian said:
I think that's a good point. If Cadance rolls poorly, we're going All In whether we react quickly or slowly.

And in the case where we're going All In, getting Baldomare is really exceedingly valuable.

It's mostly if we want to gamble on the Qiarry being feasible with Bureau + 2 Names. I kind of feel it should be? But it's true that we haven't done Long Expeditions and Velvet's well-roundness is very very nice for them.

The real issue is that the Quarry is "Thrice-Cursed"

That means Heart and Winter. We have +80 Winter without Velvet on board, +100 and a reroll with. but if we're facing CD 100+ Winter tests to not get our faction all cursed that makes me extremely nervous. Getting slammed with Dry Soul Curse and Third Eye Curse right before we are about to All In would be... Bad. The +80ish averages we're bringing via Axe+Artifacts is okay for normie hurdles that give Axe a wound and spend a day of time before rerolling are fine without Velvet, but Curses don't traditionally let you reroll in cultsim, they just slam your faction with a curse and then you keep going on the expedition. If we didn't want to send Velvet on the expedition we should have had Selene Consult instead of doing smiles progress. But we made that bed and we should now lie in it.

Greymere · Apr 15, 2026

I'm honestly not really sure what Velvet could even do if Cadance fails and she's around for it. We don't have the metaphysical oomph to oppose Daybreaker, so like... I dunno. It seems to me that realistically, our options to react to that would be "run away and hope we can hide well enough", "All In right now", or Wolfmurder (which, no). None of which except Wolf would seem to need Velvet's presence right at that very moment - we already told our biggest weak point to take everyone and RUN if things go weird/wrong, and I feel like by time we get back from the Quarry we'd have noticed the whole "sun not setting" thing to decide "let's maybe not go directly back to Canterlot".

Edit:
[X] (VELVET) You will personally join the Bureau in the expedition.
[X] (CHERENKOLT) Cherenkolt will personally join the expedition.

DelightedOne · Apr 15, 2026

Greymere said:
It seems to me that realistically, our options to react to that would be "run away and hope we can hide well enough", "All In right now", or Wolfmurder (which, no).

That is my thought process. I feel strangely confident about this expedition(which I admit is weird) so I feel more inclined to stand watch.

I also don't like the idea of giving up our agency in a possible emergency. The precedent for that is never good.

Greymere said:
None of which except Wolf would seem to need Velvet's presence right at that very moment - we already told our biggest weak point to take everyone and RUN if things go weird/wrong.

I'm pretty sure if we are being offered this as an option and being told we will be able to react to what happens means there will be options that won't be available for later or at least it will increase the efficiency of anything we could do.

And if the Wolf gives us Ainé and gets rid of Daybreaker I think we should consider it. Which is one more reason to stay, because then we might catch her in a vulnerable state having just emerged instead of already settled into reality.

Shaper47 · Apr 15, 2026

ses said:
The real issue is that the Quarry is "Thrice-Cursed"

I'm more concerned about the diggers. Velvet is very well suited to dealing with a horde of foes due to her Edge Sacrament. Anypony else can get ganked via clip damage.

Though the curses are a valid concern and it's not like Velvet staying behind would help Cadance in her rolls at all.

Greymere · Apr 15, 2026

DelightedOne said:
That is my thought process. I feel strangely confident about this expedition(which I admit is weird) so I feel more inclined to stand watch.

I also don't like the idea of giving up our agency in a possible emergency. The precedent for that is never good.

My doubt is really more that our agency in this situation would mean that much. So I'd rather stack the deck in favor of getting the last Name we can before Daybreaker descends, if Cadance does indeed fail.

DelightedOne said:
I'm pretty sure if we are being offered this as an option and being told we will be able to react to what happens means there will be options that won't be available for later or at least it will increase the efficiency of anything we could do.

And if the Wolf gives us Ainé and gets rid of Daybreaker I think we should consider it. Which is one more reason to stay, because then we might catch her in a vulnerable state having just emerged instead of already settled into reality.

Whiiiiiich.... we don't know, and I don't think we should be planning on the assumption that it would. This is the Wolf Divided we're talking about. Everything it does, even when it does what we want it to do, stains and twists the result beyond repair. Frankly I don't see why Wolfmurdering Daybreaker wouldn't just result in a dead Celestia, no Aine, and a permanently broken path to Harmony. Even in Bird's musings, the Regrettable Action was staining ourselves by reaching into the tar pit to save what remains. Which is a rather different thing from "Wolf to the Face!".

ses · Apr 15, 2026

Aine was a funny meme, not something that will actually happen if we invoke the Wolf in a sodding _regrettable_ action, but the chances of Cadance failing should be very low (we invested a lot into this), and while not going on the expedition means we might get offered an RA to cover a failure.... that's not much of a balm? Yeah we'd take it because of course we'll take the RA instead of losing. But a high chance of preventing a medium sized disaster at the expedition is better than a small chance of downgrading a giant disaster to a large disaster?

The chances of our presence making a difference is just literally over an order of magnitude higher at the expedition than at the castle. There's nothing we can do at the castle to lower the chance of a failure. There's an extremely high chance our presence at the expedition will prevent a major problem.

DelightedOne · Apr 15, 2026

Greymere said:
Frankly I don't see why Wolfmurdering Daybreaker wouldn't just result in a dead Celestia, no Aine, and a permanently broken path to Harmony. Even in Bird's Apocrypha, the Regrettable Action was staining ourselves by reaching into the tar pit to save what remains. Which is a rather different thing from "Wolf to the Face!".

Intercalate recreation? Split the sun(Celestia), make a Son and take Ainé as a consolation prize.

But yeah that is more wishful thinking than anything.

Wise Wolf · Apr 15, 2026

[X] (VELVET) You will personally join the Bureau in the expedition
[X] (CHERENKOLT) Cherenkolt will personally join the expedition.

All-In is soon. If Cadance fails, it's all the sooner. Let's not be forced into All-In without the Lantern Name at our side.

CementCitron · Apr 15, 2026

The thing is, if we're away and OurLady hits our family with the avoid the royal guard or get send to the gulag check, I would like for Velvet to be present, should things go bad. The point of Velvet having a family is that they're something she can lose, and OurLady has been very lenient so far, as far as having to protect our family goes. I think, since now their dying isn't an instant game over, threats against them are very much on the table.

Steady Gaze · Apr 15, 2026

[X] (VELVET) You will personally join the Bureau in the expedition.
[X] (CHERENKOLT) Cherenkolt will personally join the expedition.

@OurLadyOfWires:

Here, and don't forget the backlogs (1, 2).

OurLadyOfWires said:
After all, even if the very heart of Equestria is troubled, its legs still gallop, and those who have a duty to perform will see to them.

After all, even if the very heart of Equestria is troubled, its legs still gallop, and those who have duties to perform will see to them.

After all, even if the very heart of Equestria is troubled, its legs still gallop, and those who have a duty to perform will see to it.

OurLadyOfWires said:
And by the end of that letter, a few unfortunate news had been conveyed.

And by the end of that letter, some unfortunate news had been conveyed.

And by the end of that letter, a few bits of unfortunate news had been conveyed.

And by the end of that letter, a few unfortunate bits of news had been conveyed.

OurLadyOfWires said:
Honorable Cherenkolt, and the blasted snake I know won't bother reading this…

Honorable Cherenkolt, and the blasted snake who I know won't bother reading this…

Greymere · Apr 15, 2026

CementCitron said:
The thing is, if we're away and OurLady hits our family with the avoid the royal guard or get send to the gulag check, I would like for Velvet to be present, should things go bad. The point of Velvet having a family is that they're something she can lose, and OurLady has been very lenient so far, as far as having to protect our family goes. I think, since now their dying isn't an instant game over, threats against them are very much on the table.

Velvet's already warned Stormchaser to take the family and gtfo if things go wrong. So if he listens to her (which, why wouldn't he?), by time we'd get back to our family from Canterlot they should already be long gone, with how long the trip takes even using the fancy flying chariots. Also, like, our house is guarded by the Bureau. And their loyalty to us is greater than their loyalty to Celestia, iirc (hence why they're our sort-of cult now). If Velvet's concerned enough to be preemptively warning Stormchaser to run if things don't go well, telling the house guards something similar doesn't seem like it'd be that implausible of an action for her to take?

spiderhellian · Apr 15, 2026

Oh and don't forget the other reason to send Velvet on an Expedition:

AAAAaaaaaAaaaa any risk for a chance at finding out what does the Silver Key DOOOOooooooOOOO?????

ses · Apr 15, 2026

spiderhellian said:
Oh and don't forget the other reason to send Velvet on an Expedition:

AAAAaaaaaAaaaa any risk for a chance and finding out what does the Silver Key DOOOOooooooOOOO?????

I'm confused this is the second post you made arguing in favor of Velvet going and you're voting against sending her? Sending Velvet isn't overkill. It's basically a 20% chance per hurdle of turning a failure into a success, and a Long expedition is probably like 12 hurdles long. That's absolutely massive: Even if we're running 80%ish odds per hurdle with just Axe+Bureau+Cherry that's still a massive difference in how fast and effective we are.

Also I AGREE WHAT DOES IT DO TELL ME YOUR SECRETS

Uruguayan spider · Apr 15, 2026

OurLadyOfWires said:
-[X] (Mareinette) Honored Guest: Mayor Mare

Wait, when did we decide to eat the Ponyville president?
I thought we were going to do it with Spoiled Rich and use Filthy Rich for the Moth Sacrament.

spiderhellian said:
AAAAaaaaaAaaaa any risk for a chance and finding out what does the Silver Key DOOOOooooooOOOO?????

Yea! This is an important point!

Esquestria: The House of the Sun - A pony cultist experience

In hell we live, lament

Uh-oh, better hide those FOALS!

Making the rounds.

Araneae

Araneae

Versed in the lewd.

Experienced.

Your first time is always over so quickly, isn't it?

Not too sore, are you?

Know what you're doing yet?

Experienced.

Not too sore, are you?

Know what you're doing yet?

Versed in the lewd.

Experienced.

Araneae

Experienced.

In hell we live, lament

Versed in the lewd.

Experienced.

In hell we live, lament

Experienced.

Versed in the lewd.

Grinding the whiskey wheat

Your first time is always over so quickly, isn't it?

Sending good vibes and insights

In hell we live, lament

Araneae

Experienced.

Not too sore, are you?

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