Pax's Alternate History Snippet repository.

Imperator Pax said:

The problem is that the Japanese economically dependent on the US for war materials necessary for expansion, and that most of the people making decisions were from young officer cliques in whose entire plan was 'Russo-Japanese war 2.0' without understanding why that plan had been successful.

Now that being said, I don't think with Japan was unavoidable, Japan had internal off ramps, but the leadership basically talked themselves in the war. If the Pro-US, Anglo-AMerican wing of the army gets power if Iesato, or frankly some of the other anglophile Tokugawas survive longer than historically or if frankly the Kwantung army leadership actually got sent to prison for their shenanigans Pearl probably never happens. Indonesia probably still gets invaded, and maybe Indochina (iesato dying in 40 is the only reason the militarists were able to get ratification of the Axis pact, which of course Hitler then proceeded to upset tokyo with not telling them about barbarossa).

Here, the pacific war happens much like IRL, yes. Why? Because without Pearl the US doesn't enter the European war. Hitler declaring war in support of japan (even though he wasn't legally obligated to do so, Japan was the belligerent power) gave FDR the legal, and political capital necessary to enter the war in Europe and discretion to pursue a Germany First strategy with Great Britain. Roosevelt cannot readily maneuver the US into war even though he had been attempting to bait Japan into giving him a cassus belli he could use (and an even more aggressive feasure of that was used with the Coast Guard and Navy feeding German Uboat data to the RN and in one case outright ramming a Uboat) so by '42 the US goes into the war on schedule with Pearl, but without it Japan either waits (again Yamamoto favored naval arms control treaties and the ratio because that benefitted the Japanese military situation and economy)

With Barbarossa Japan invading the Soviet Union has the issue of logistics the rebuilding and expansion of the Trans Siberian here , in this timeline, only really goes to Omsk, the USSR has lost the central Asian republics and eastern Siberia, it doesn't have a pacific port, but on the flip side that leaves Japan responsible for investment spending there and also means a larger influx of koreans and ethnic japanese but it also makes the Kwantung Army Officers look bad or at least makes them feel less prestigious without addressing the issue of Tokyo GHQ having less control over them.

So yes its not improbable to derail the pacific war by changes in Japan's up and comers but the butterfly effects internationally would have massive knock on effects globally.

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Faralis said:

TBH, the US had plans to enter the war around March or April of 1942 against Germany, anyway. Specially since Barbarrosa, they new a war was inevitable...

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Faralis said:

TBH, the US had plans to enter the war around March or April of 1942 against Germany, anyway. Specially since Barbarrosa, they new a war was inevitable...

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Imperator Pax said:

There is a difference between knowing and planning for it, and getting congress to actually go along with it because the largest impediment to Roosevelts interest in joining the conflict in Europe or Asia was entrenched isolationism he needed a clear cut attack on the US.

This is also post war why NATO was so important to be ratified as it created a legally binding US investment in protecting W.Europe and thus side stepped the isolationists since it formalized security arrangements.

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ATP said:

Indeed.FDR wonted to save soviets,and divide Earth with them.Idiot,could have all.

That is why he planned to sunk u-boots till they sunk some american warship in retaliation.And media would help him,they all loved soviets.
I remember some Holywood movie about soviet kolchoz,where people looked like american farmers gladly working for Sralin.Forget title,but most was like that.

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Imperator Pax said:

Its that whole distance thing, Roosevelt grew up in an era where 'oh yeah those guys don't look so bad from way over here.' and honestly the Soviets capitalized on that by massaging their own international image with carefully catered tours (Noam Chomsky, and for that matter Bernie Sanders both come to mind) that only showed the nice bits. FDR had nice big lake fronts to keep the soviets at bay, (and also there is an argument to be made that since the Soviets had no real navy to speak of FDR being a navy guy looked at Stalin and was dismissive of the danger the soviets posed, once the immediate threat of revolution passed in 1917 the American perspective on the soviets largerly moderated during the interwar years (there was some umbrage of Finland in the papers, particularly in the midwest but it was still not a 'US Problem')).

But yeah roosevelt's plan in the simplistic was WE (The Navy) will continue to harass the Germans until they throw a punch at us, and then WE (the US) will go to war and of course Roosevelt was very proud of his Naval bills, the Navy was very much his service.

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ATP said:

And it would worked.Hitler was arleady partially mad,so after loosing few submarines would declare war on USA.
What i do not undarstandt is why Truman gave half of Europe for notching to Sralin when he arleady had A bomb.In best USA interest was use crimes in soviet occupied Poland as pretext to burn Moscow before they get their own bomb.

USA could be sole superpower now,and only country with nukes if they did it.Instead,they almost died for their betreyal later.

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Imperator Pax said:

Truman wasn't prepared to be president. He had received no significant briefings, he was a political choice by Roosevelt who had largely been sidelined from authority, and after he came to power the State Department basically started trying to shape policy. Things might have been different if Patton hadn't had his car accident arguably speaking Patton was Marshall's heir apparent and protégé and coupled with MacArthur that could have shaped a more hardline US position, but also that Ike was a very cautious general who wanted to maintain a balance of power so that shaped the US position, but mostly I think it was that Truman was thrust into the position without real preparation for being president. [I honestly think FDR expected to live out hte war if not actually like being able to stand for election in '48 even as a result didn't feel the need to brief Truman on the situation]

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Imperator Pax said:

July 1920
The fan working above them was a reminder it was summer again, not that they needed reminding. The truth was that even though there were not farmers any longer... not really not like the days of their grandfathers this was the busy season they found. Not just for government work, but for the army as well. The pen stopped tapping on the table abruptly drawing attention by its sudden stillness, "I don't think we're going to be able to bring over as much military tooling as we originally expected." Griswold grumbled.

"The Embargo isn't perfect," Cole pointed out, but it was still a nuisance, "and Powell is right that we can still buy the things we want, and we can ship them to middle America." It wasn't charity they'd be building up the labor force for long term trade and putting in work for other things.

One of the things that come out of watching the states mobilize for war were putting companies that made civilian goods to manufacture other things. Singer, the people who made some of their sewing machines for textile companies as well as ones for home spinners, had been turned to making artillery shells. That was important because of how voracious the appetite for shells were, and also the shell problems the British had had with their quality control early in the war.

It was something that gave the Cadre a lot to think about, especially as the work on automotive industry expanded, and they looked at the manufacture of other parts. "Our critical priority should be the machine tooling, precision machining not only can reduce the time it takes us to make a good but also its greater viability," What Griswold was actually speaking of was durability of the product and how long it lasted. Things like rayon, which had come into the world the year before the Europeans had decided to go to kill each other, were an example of new goods for market, and the necessity of large chemical industries.

Large industries needed electrical power. That demand could vary significantly depending on working hours, and even what they were building.

That just fed back to needing to invest capital in machine tooling. The tooling, would reduce time which in turn reduced the cost of production. Better machine tooling meant also that precision work could be carried out in plants that had still other advantages.

The cadre had agreed to a series of goals aimed at reaching in 1925. Five years from start of implementation. The idea was to look at how close they were in 24, and make plans then five years on from that see how that second set of plans was going on in 29 going into 30. The work though was industrial and capital distribution aimed at meeting the market. Tariffs was not something the cadre talked about, the British still were in charge of the customs board and were involved in collecting those important revenues for China.

Setting tariffs and collecting taxes wasn't an option for the planning... and with several provinces involved in the endeavor there needed to be few to none trade barriers between the provinces and the ability to source goods now that the war wasn't interfering. The problem, the issue which merited this late July conference, was the matter in Peking and how the legations were carrying about regardless of their specific behavior.

The US and British Legations had been both caught flat foot, and Japan had wanted to support Duan Qirui. Zhang pivoting and moving to block movements by taking his troops south though had pretty much hemmed Duan in. The Fengtien troops had deployed en masse even if they hadn't done a whole lot of fighting.

At that point Duan had seen the writing on the wall and resigned, ironically making it a rather lot of a replay of the fiasco with the pony tail general just with him as the marshal with the queue. Duan's resignation paved the way for Fengtien and Zhili to mark into Peking without any serious fighting, which had reassured the legations to a degree.

Duan was out but now what was the question

Duan had talked about the restoration of Peking to managing its own tariffs but that had always been tentative to actually managing to get the finances of the country in order. That was the whole reason that the Qing had agreed, and that the revolutionary government had agreed, and Yuan had agreed, and that Duan had also agreed that the customs board existed. The british were honest brokers in terms of making sure the agreed upon tariffs were collected and that that money then went on to what it was supposed to go towards... even if yes part of that income was for paying down the indemnity from the boxer mess of 1900.

That made the prospect of trade internationally difficult. "From an operations stand point that's probably true, however, we need to recognize event in Peking don't do a lot for confidence," Cullen replied, "Don't get me wrong, there are a lot of people who want to move to town, and we need to look towards housing, and jobs, and trade, we have a lot to do, and the locomotives we build for export," To Iseburo, to staff the Kirghiz rail network that was growing across the steppe and towards the Caspian side, as well as going to the MAK and Guatemala and for that matter the line connecting to Honduras. "that's great. All of the ones we have now are with people who can trust us to deliver, for one reason or another... this mess in Peking looks bad to folks back home."

"And what are you suggesting?"

"Truthfully that we need to massage how the legations are acting, its in everyone's best interest that China is stable, chaos is bad for everyone an example has to be set. The elections in November need to go off without a hitch." He held up a hand, "Don't get me wrong, you're right, expanding the work that can be seen done is good, and the less people stuck in narrow margin, cyclical work like farming is obviously good, but we need to show back home that that its safe."

... that it wasn't the chaos and disorder of some of how Europe looked went unsaid though with the violence convulsing say the German capital back in January over communist agitation.
--
In the war between the states a Federal division trended upwards to about four thousand men, Confederate divisions were larger still if they were at paper strength. The result was that if in they somehow managed to wind back up in grand pa's day 1st​ Division was comparable to some corps in size.

Officially a rifle battalion had about 70 officers allotted to it on paper. That only applied to active army division battalions; in no small part due to their red legs. So 1st​ and 3rd​ until very recently, but ETS units stood up to study a concept and evaluate new systems trended even larger in the number officers, warrant officers, and senior enlisted they employed for a given task. All of those men were thoroughly involved in writing up what they had learned over the course of exercises that then was digested in subsequent reviews of those sections.

The conclusion pretty in all of it was that officers and senior enlisted agreed that in order to get there first, to a designated assembly point, rifle divisions needed to b e mechanized. Once they arrived and in sufficient numbers could throw out blocking forces, and counter reconnoiter forces and then engage the enemy as the artillery deployed.

The lesson since 1913 was that tractor drawn artillery were more less space intensive, you didn't need pack mules or horses and could have a congregated motor pool of mechanics who would be tasked to other duties as needed. The benefits there in were obvious, and as a result the generalization drawn from the studies was that industrial expansion, a large economy insured the viability of both the army as a short term sustainable institution... that was to say keeping it funded... as well as that it expanded economic growth more broadly... and of course the staff officers read read read.

They read especially, and digested what the greater powers had done to mobilize their economies for a war time footing... and again that non military industries could produce goods for sustaining a total war state. That also honed into the matter of the quality matter, but more than that.

"Corps?"

"Yes," It was a controversial topic, and it was a good thing Reinsch had been succeeded by someone more favorable to what they were doing out here given recent tensions.

"Realistically 1st​ and 2nd​ Division plus a couple brigades are our reaction force anyway." Cullen replied, "With Shang where he is, and 3rd​ plus a brigade that covers the southern frontier." He declined to bring up the Guard, but recent events were conspicuous as a result of that lack of explicit mention, "Our first line reserves are the Gendarmes first line units, and the two brigades of artillery, and the Heavy Engineering Brigade, after that its the Guard component for responding" [against] "a non regional challenge."

Dawes, who was of course particularly smug at the conclusion that broadly endorsed his red legs as a critical component of the modern army... not that really needed to be said... drummed his fingers on the reports. "The matter of communication, and logistics, and transport are the major matters of the finding. The Infantry remains critical to establishing local control, and exerting an area of influence, but the rapid bringing up of artillery and their engagement in short decisive barrages is what allows the army to turn away of enemies many time time in excess of our own people." Rather, probably, unintentionally one man down from Dawes echoed a comment Allen had made to Percy some years before.

--
Notes: This is in part to reiterate how the world is changing, for reference despite being similar in manpower terms Xian's triangle divisions, for different reason, the constituent battalion number of officers is roughly double that of a British Great War roster, and this is in part a hallmark of specialization. Here Xian's Rifle Btn still have that fourth company being artillery, which means greater logistical needs, so headquarters support is larger, there is also other CSS roles where Xian Rifle Battalions have organic snipers and also a larger medical section. [The aid men mentioned some time back]

The other thing is that even though there will be comments of 'this five year plan' or 'that five year plan', this is an evolution of the technocratic business planning model idea rather than the centralized state planning model of the later, relatively speaking, interwar year belligerents. This is we have X production we want to expand in order to meet a target goal by 192X, and this goes towards the cadre having corporate rather than government roots and coming from a period of long term industrial planning on the corporate side that is aimed at long term profitability rather than quarterly dividend numbers.

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Imperator Pax said:

August 1920
Officially, with the manifold reforms of the constitutional ratification Allen had found his rank to be commanding general... what ... what in twenty years would become General of the Armies. It was a legal distinction with every intention that it was to be an administrative post, and aimed at preparing and training the army rather than actually commanding forces afield.

... but it was a position that had been one of coordination, and education... one not predicated one that could not have predicted at the time of writing the break down of central authority in north china. "What do we want to do?" He looked at the map, and the question was asked again, "What do we want to do Al?"

He idly tapped eastern Siberia... officially as his rank CG Iseburo was still the IG... unofficially was governor... Viceroy might have been accurate... that was what Percy had made the crack on about a few days ago... and he wasn't necessarily wrong... though he doubted the comparison was popular. "We're gonna push on with trying to get them to adopt 8mm Mauser." Kirghiz wasn't subject to the arms embargo, so they could get that stuff surplused cheap.

They'd push to get rid of the Russian cartridge ... mostly because there was no tooling or industry to make it in the numbers that anyone would need especially if a fight came. The 8mm was the standard cartridge across China even if the south was largely reliant on the older round nose pattern still... the Qing hadn't been able to complete the transition, and the pattern 88s were still arguably the most common rifle in the country... but that really underscored what needed to be done. If Siberia, and Central Asia were to be able to resist any potential Bolshevik advance something was going to have to give.

Logistically that would mean that the rifle caliber would have to change. Britain would have probably preferred if the change over 'if it must' be done to their dwarf but that wasn't likely. "Well the good news on that," Griswold remarked "is the tooling is set. Machine guns shouldn't be an issue, we've already made simplifications and mass production is under way." He meant Heavy Machine Guns those in tripod mount i.e. The colts not the Lewis guns. "It'd be nice if Iseburo would buy an order as well."

"Tch, and get in a fight with the Kwantung Army." Whose leadership had not appreciated the Siberian posting not being folded in... even though Yamagata's heir would have likely ended up in charge of it all... instead the Manchurian concession was a separate army and civilian apparatus... and it didn't take a genius to recognize that the two commands would be vying for funding in a post war budget... and since Iseburo's command was sitting on oil at least on that one island and he had the industry connections... well there was going to be a lot of teeth gnashing from the army, and probably the navy. "Don't get me wrong, if the reds come over," Dawes drawled, "I'd want us all with the same model of rifle, machine gun and cannons, but we should probably accept there will be a fight but one where we don't have interchangeable weapons."

It was a vain hope, there was no denying that... Allen wasn't even sure that if the Brits agreed to replace 303 with 30'06 that it would have justified adopting it to replace the Mauser. They were doing their own rifle experiments, with aims towards a universal short rifle... but twenty inches even with IMR was still stout for smaller men and they had to make considerations.

Dawes's comment further accentuated that officially, that he was formally the second most senior officer in the army commanding the artillery. Regardless of progressing talk, of air forces, gendarmes or national guard the artillery was of the combat arms effectively senior given the effective time in grade especially. "Zhang intends to start a full shift over to a domestic production moving from the 88 to the 98."

The troubles in Manchuria well if the Ponytail hadn't gone into retirement it was likely Zhang Xun would have probably pursued a similar course of modernization, and probably only the war in Europe had prevented Yuan Shikai from trying to modernize the Beiyang army from pushing forward with such.

Zhang Tsolin's hold on Manchuria meant he had funding for that. There was the question of whether or not he had the funding available to sustain a modernization program that would become self sustaining... "Do you think he can do it?"

"He's hiring russians, he has a mission in Austria," Dawes picked up his mug and blew on the steaming coffee, "We know he understands the terms of the peace treaty, and even if that wasn't a factor we know he planned to buy surplus. Zhang is surprisingly adamant about not likely the Bolsheviks, and I can't speak to ... the man's personal feelings but I am a little worried where he sits on the Qing."

Zhang Xun, and Zhang Tsolin were not related. They shared a surname but that didn't mean much there were a million lees after all. On the other hand Zhang Tsolin was adamant about providing gifts to the former emperor... and by itself that was nothing... but with thirty thousand manchurian gendarmes in Peking... well it was hard not to fret about the similarities that they were looking at.

"Something we'll have to keep on top of."

--
Only the most optimistic of the Cadre had grand visions of what the first elections would yield in terms of preparation... but the recent fightin in Peking's vicinity ... well that wasn't great for civic confidence. Even allowing for the greater infrastructure compared to out west only part of the fory odd million of the population were actually eligible for the Franchise... and estimates on how many of them would turn out to vote was largely disappointing.

In a way they were lucky that Duan had called for parliamentary elections when he had. It had allowed them a trial run that went through Shansi, Shensi, Gansu, Xinjiang, the lake, and Lhasa. All the same one of the self evident things going into the first elections would be that the lower house would have to approve efforts to better organize the electorate, but that would go hand in hand with tax reform and infrastructure expenditures. Schools, especially, compulsory education.

It wasn't the only election they had to worry about either... the states would going to the polls soon. That Wood hadn't clinched the nomination was unfortunate. Harding's rhetoric... was at best nonsense and worse ignorant of the world beyond the shore and ignorance was dangerous.

"Here are the financials," Waite remarked, "And the census is under way, we will tabulate using the counting machines," The machines that they had bought, brought over in the expectation of conducting a China wide census for the Qing, which had fallen through so long ago. "Its telling us mostly what we expected though."

The overwhelming majority of China's population was rural... and the lack of modern statistics, and regular efforts to keep the rolls updated meant guess work... but more than that rural life meant endemic unemployment, and also commonly under employment. Things that had been identified years ago, but with a comprehensive census would be able to meaningfully plan and address with the addition of government powers... if given time to work.

The financial commission had an overlap with the banking one, but it was a study group. It was looking both local efforts to reform, like what Zhang Tsolin had instituted with a silver currency of his own issue, and also ... the mess that was going on with abroad. As China had not needed to mobilize, as there had not been a disjunction of any sort of national market the matter of inflation and the value of the common house hold goods had remained relatively stable as well. Domestic production of manufactured goods had increased to meet demand for goods which ordinarily would have been brought in from Europe, and later America as American production had been devoured by the European war effort. "Is the Ed Commission in there somewhere?"

"Nah, I ain't seen it yet." Waite replied.

Compulsorily education in such a way that it could be thought of beginning had begun with the kindergartens and school for employees of the firm. If Augustus had been born in 1910 he'd have still been too young to be in those first combined classes for workers children. The expansion of 1914, then for the war, meant a need to expand workers housing and other supplemental, and they would still have to do that, and new schools had been planned... which was probably why the education commission was late.


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Notes: The use of Commanding General is of course an American-ism its a 19th​ century facet this rank would have been abolished by the US in fact it was replaced in 1903 by Army Chief of Staff as position and subordinate in both instances to the secretary of war. This also goes however to the difference in the systems that are developing politically.

At this point Xian doesn't have a Secretary of War, and strictly speaking Xian's civilian positions are rather frequently filled with military officers or those with military experience. This is something previously alluded on in the Pre Xian period with Reinsch's complaining about militarism (this is something he complained about in his academic writing before he was posted to China, it was something he complained about with Japan, and China both regarding leadership, and he complained about it in this US system with regards to the secretary of War basically ignoring him). This is kind of a foreshadowed but Reinsch and some other politicians and political appointees pre ww1 were often inclined to complain 'oh the militarists or militarism is making my job harder', his complaints to SoW, and the Phillipines were more complicated than that, and also involved the fact that Reinsch was a political appointee and Lansing (and Bryan before him) had other things on the agenda.

But here with those complaints there is an extent leadership, and to be fair its very much a continuation of an old boy's club.

As to the gun thing this plays into WW2 where E.Siberia, like Manchukuo and Kirghiz and China in general are all using 8mm Mauser and typically some mauser action for their rifle. (88 Commission rifles or domestic productions are still common) Japan never transitions fully from their last Meiji era rifle, Japan is in the process of modernizing its 6.5 cartridge at present, but the 7.7 is complementary to the 6.5 and its basically a rimless 303 British. The 'Arisaka' are basically improved Mauser action rifles. As a result there end with Imperial Japan doing special procurement of small batches of different things but never adopting them en masse. (Like with the Carcano)

Caliber is going to be important for pushing cold war doctrine, adoption of a semi / select fire rifles, artillery and so forth. Those will be discussed touched on as we move further into the interwar years, because most of those conversations took place in the thirties academically. Now I say academically because while they had been touched tentatively before ww1 Ordinance branches got in the way, and also by the late thirties war is around the corner and a lot of small arms modernization didn't get funded, and were put off by most major combatant nations.

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ATP said:

6,5mm would be better - still good enough to kill,but you could take more ammo with you.And,could mass produce first assault rifle ever made - Avtamat Fedorova !

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Imperator Pax said:

The problem here, is its a semi rimmed cartridge and the presents other bottlenecks especially if you're not already producing it.

Having to tool up and replace cartridges without an existing large domestic arsenal system is pretty difficult (There is a reason financially speaking that Denmark stuck with 3006 as long as it did, and thats just one example in terms of main service rifle.) I absolutely agree that 6.5 Arisaka has a lot going for it, and this the reason that post War Xian does finally settle on a six five (Because the Qing, including Qing officers like Liu Bang, wanted to go to that lighter round) as its next service cartridge, but its just not economically practical if you're sitting there going 'the soviets are going to do something stupid in the next few years, because Lenin, and Trotsky are still talking about revolutionary bridges to Germany and world revolution).

It doesn't make economic sense, and by the same token, yes you could field specialist formation even at potentially a regimental level with those but the bottleneck of production scale is problem to contend with. Its thereby an economics question rather than a military utility and performance one

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Imperator Pax said:

August 1920​

Eventually the optimism about 'the war to end all wars' nonsense would fade. Europe wasn't safe, it certainly wasn't at peace. The political crisis of Germany of 1920 encouraged some to immigrate, and they were hardly the only crisis. They knew that from the European offices, and Powell hoped to encourage immigration to Latin America... but the Czechs ... Czechoslovakia who probably would have been all right with out the Tsar's gold or their portion of it were doing well.

Not everyone was that lucky, and at least the Czechs were somewhat protected by geography. Kirghiz, the nominal term of choice to describe the broad extent of central asia, did not per se. The fall of orenburg the city had remained in Bolshevik hands, and remained akin to some medieval fortress marking the border... and also as the nominal capital of a communist central asian state. It kept the British invested in the region, if for no other reason than to maintain a buffer state north of India though.

He expected that was part of hte reason Percy wouldn't let the matter of a trip to England loose for any prolonged period of time. There just wasn't time to go to England, not for him. Not with everything else going about. Percy shrugged, "Well as I said the business with the Czech legion, with its great conjoining of new nations in the east has provided a great deal of favorable press."

"Yes, we're in talks to supply technical data pacakages and arms assistance to them. He almost wished they were in position to produce rifles for export to Europe just to tweak noses, but they weren't , if they were going to produce 8mm Mauser rifles for anyone it would need to be Kirghiz... "The Trans Caspian line is overhauled."

"Yes the Commission had said as much in their cable." Mackinder's people in 'south russia' as the British preferred calling it. "They're tentatively optimistic that the peace will hold you know."

"We will see," Allen replied, "From my understanding its not the same in west." Percy flinched. Lloyd George had had the temerity to claim the reason he couldn't countenance an embargo against the Bolsheviks was that it would cause starvation... well starvation seemed likely anyway, but it rang hollow for other reasons given that Royal Navy had been willing to dominant the seas and police commerce during the war, and the British had refued to contemplate budging on Freedom of th Seas when Wilson had attempted to discuss... but that merely underscored the Virginian's weakness of character for all his rhetoric...

In the end the Poles would unveil their Miracle on the Vistula, but in early and the middle of August things had looked a bit dicier. "There is aid being provided but not troops,"

He grunted, "The bolsheviks have limitted resources if the peace holds it'll only be because they can't afford to attack on multiple fronts."

"What will you do?"

Allen gestured to the map, "With tranche 3 done, the railway through to Ferghana is up and running we can look at other efforts and we will continue to encourage that the Cossacks do what they can to make themselves a less a tempting target."

"Iseburo's defense at the lake,"

"Is an example to demonstrate to, but I am just as concerned that Iseburo's defense will make any Red attack more likely to be aimed south if they manage to win in the west... assuming they give up Trotsky's madness about a bridge to Germany." He shook his head, personally he didn't so much care about the country so much as the resources and the damage its fall would do, "Look whatever, however it plays out we'll be busy in Turkestan," and on their side in Xinjiang there was just too much to do any given year, but the railways were running now. This wasn't like twenty years ago when there had been no railways in Xinjiang and the area had been largely dependent on the Russian postal service.

"Are you going?"

"Short trips only." He replied. Xian sat at the center of their modern rail network, and that stretched out to the ancient sogdian cities of trade now in the west, but it also had trunks that stretched east and eventually touched lines that ran to the coast. "The drought will require a lot of my," Twelve months of little to no rain, and then the mess in July... the harvest across North china was going to be abysmal given the decrepit status of much of the irrigation... which was of course why so many people considered flood control so important. "attention." He said, "We'll buy grain for the states to pad the granaries of course put in more tube wells where we can, but most places aren't gonna be so lucky," Either here in North China or in the neighboring countries to the north and west... and the lack of rain was across all of western, northern Asia from the sound of it.

--
It had taken the better part of the week to get around to reading the full text of the Financial Commission's report. The summary for Manchuria though proved interesting enough... Zhang had engaged in currency reforms after he'd come to power. Tsolin's reforms, and his willingness to enact them had a long history in Manchuria though...

The Financial Commission had gone back to early attempts at land reform in Manchuria, but also hadn't missed that Tsolin had opposed some of those earlier attempts, while supporting others. His government's currency reform had begun with a new issue silver note, and then... the issuance of a second currency to handle government business pegged to the Japanese gold-Yen. This was probably for the best, since the new currency was stable, and implied that Zhang's creditors were confident enough in its solidarity that his loans were secure investments...

Zhang's was one of the few success stories present... and he looked to expand that with plan to Open a bank of Manchuria with an eight million dollar operating capital. In the scheme of international finance that was not an astounding volume of money... but for a Chinese bank it had a short list of competitors.

If you were optimistic it was a good thing. The only example of note that came to mind was the Bank of Communication, Shanghai, and Hong Kong... and well the two cities, well... leaving aside them Zhang was pursuing real and effective economic reforms that very well could have benefited the whole country if only they were pursued. That made it all the more farcical, because Zhang was not conventionally educated, he had just gathered the right men around him, and built on existing conditions.

By comparison Szechwan was a teeming mess, yes there were bandits in the borderlands of the three provinces that made up Manchuria, and that required troops but it did bring them back to the other issue. Yuan Shikai had frequently attempted to keep the Army of China to a manageable half million in no small part due to financial burden preferring well armed, and well trained modern troops to the old Green and Banner formations.

Yuan Shikai had lived long enough to see the beginning of hte changes to international finance... but he hadn't lived to see the end of the war... or Germany's defeat... or the humiliation of a vindictive imperialist peace. The legal German army limited to a hundred thousand men was a joke, Germany was sixty million people, a hundred thousand was made all the more absurd looking at the growing armies of China... at their own growing army.

Yan Xishan was recommending still that the reserves be expanded to a full paper strength of a hundred thousand men. Then of course there was the move to fully equip the 5 'regular army' active duty divisions on top of the 2nd​ Division of the Guard, and the 4th​ Division based in Yan's home province.

His musings were cut short by the rap on the door, "This came in from Powell, he's been talking with Lansing's replacement." Bill remarked holding out the telegram. If Powell had wanted to talk about he could have called, the telegram was faster than a letter though, but allowed the MAK to narrow their position and its presentation.

Back at home the states had been treated to a carefully curated, and presented view by Madison Avenue to shape the message of the Czech Legion and that narrative that went with it. The Czechs were absolutely a media darling, but especially back home. The papers back home loved them.

"He's volunteered to deploy troops to Danzig?" Never mind that he had volunteered to go himself, "For this ... whatever vote Wilson's cockamamie league thing plans."

"Powell expects there to be a riot, but that's the point he wants to encourage immigration to Latin America, the plebiscite is an excuse to tour, and make the rounds, and to shore up their position as well. Its the game." The middle American cadre wanted to encourage immigration to latin america, and were willing to open offices across the defunct central european empires and to where feasible look to invest in trade partnerships. "I personally reckon this free city talk is shit..." the Texan shook his head, "I don't pretend to know how to fix the European's malfunction... but Powell is clearly thinking that Danzig is a port, and that I guess make trade."

Allen scrutinized the telegram's three pages. "Its what he doesn't say." He agreed.
--
There were other reasons to think about Manchuria was its population. It was certainly what the British Foreign Service was thinking of. Percy looked uncomfortable in Civilian clothes, it was maybe he was the one in the suit, and felt isolated from the building full of men... but Percy had made the decision not to have this at a civilian venue like say the Glory and its coffee bar... but there was no telling whether or not he'd have been uncomfortable there.

"I was under the impression Zhang was on board against the Bolsheviks, isn't he making nice with the mad baron? They're both planning to expand their personal armies."

"Yes... well I don't know if their congeniality shouldn't be more of a cause for concern, but you're really not worried about it?"

"Its geography Percy." Mackinder liked to talk about geography and to a certain extent the parliamentarian a was right... the Cadre recognized that it could not do as Washington did and pretend itself aloof from world affairs... there was not Atlantic and Pacific to insulate China from problems that sat on its borders. "Yeah, Shensi has a lot of people," But the further inland one went, well it made sense that the maritime trio being closer to the coast, and other factors had, "Twenty five thirty million people sounds about right," There were discrepancies in the numbers. Zhang Tsolin was working off a stunted bureaucracy, and previous provincial authorities number's disagreed with the Yuan Shikai era Interior Ministry numbers by several million in total... but that was normal. "What I'm really hoping for is that our census tabulations are accurate." And that it would teach them what to do next time, when they ran the next one in ten years.

"So what will you do," Percy had brought up the situation India previously. The population of India was something on the or der of 250 maybe 300 million, but trying to measure the stock of hte whole sub continent was a nightmare much as accounting for China. Percy's point stood though, "He'll make a hundred thousand by next year."

"Yeah I know," He replied, "Believe I've heard about the Renaults as well, Griswold and Dawes both are interested... and if Zhang is serious about domestic production I'll never hear the end of it."

"Could he do it?"

"Sure, why not?" He replied shrugging, "the engine is a little anemic for my taste, but my real objection is just that for what it does and Cole agrees with me an armored car, a ford truck is just as well." They weren't precisely contending with storming intensive networks of trenches after all, and that would shape what the requirements were. "Now Zhang does seem to like the Renault, and his criteria is different and maybe he thinks its worth at this stage, I do not at this stage."

In Five years, maybe it would be different then, and Percy recognized, "Mechanization will progress."

"It will, I'm sure of that, but an Infantry Division, the Guard are for the reserves and troops to stretch a defensive cordon. I don't like the situation in Szechwan, call it tit for tat if you like, but I mean to hunt bandits... but I'll not go down south..."

If only a similarly commitment from Zhang could have been extracted... but that was another matter... but these were to become known as the years of High Warlordism for a reason.

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ATP said:

Trocky was not mad,but rather gambler - if we fall,german joined him against us,and french army mutinied thanks to commies,then Europe,Africa and most of Asia would be his.I almost pity that we win,becouse i really wonder if he pull it or not.

Renault tank - do not waste money on it,buy italian copy,Fiat 3000.
Here:
https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&sou...8QFnoECBAQAQ&usg=AOvVaw3xacfYZjLwkcoTBKXMHNon

Later version with 37mm gun would be good enough against japaneese so-called tanks till 1945.

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Imperator Pax said:

In this case the Renaults here are ones that were left in Siberia either by the French, or by the broader expeditionary forces (the US left their version behind), or were in White Russian capacity.

And in this case its also that Zhang Tso-lin had his people make their domestic reverse engineered version of the Ft17 just with 8mm Mauser machine guns, and British small cannons and thats basically what is happening further south, Chang would eventually do the same thing. No one is looking at buying Renaults because a bunch of them were left over in Siberia (the Japanese made their own copy, and its from the Renault and also metallurgical limitations in army procurement that shaped Japanese light tank doctrine).

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Imperator Pax said:

May 1628
They had piled out of the cars, and left everyone to do their own thing after they were finished for the day. Not the best idea, or well thought of plan but he accepted that they weren't sure what to do after the raiders had been shown off. That had dropped everyone back in town to do whatever while they were waiting to see what else had happened... and he didn't like it.

Victor Lucius Gunther was not particularly religious. Twenty years previous that would have been a social problem for a man his age, but not in the South they had come from. There was far less social pressure towards being inclined, and less so for ... whatever he was now. The Gunther Mill Annex had been donated to the school a few years after the mill had finally closed. That still made it older than him given the Depression had nearly killed the Mill, and only the second world war had stopped it from going under then.

Normally he used the building as an example of American industry prior to the second world war since they could just get on the school shuttle bus and the freshmen, and sophomores didn't need to worry about missing their next classes. Today he was here for something different. The 1907 Pratt and Whitney Industrial Lathe was more than a hundred years old, and if one was entirely an honest having a working 1940s Type 3C would have been better; but that needed a new belt and some tweaking. This did work though. It was amazing the amount of junk that was collected up, and then not maintained over decades. The sheer volume of material that was rust covered that even he wasn't sure of what it all was meant no doubt hours wasted trying to figure it out.

Which was precisely what he had class today. "As you've been told, I'm supposed to have your final grades in on schedule." Apparently some people hadn't read the notices, or checked their emails, which the latter made sense limitted power meant they would have had to go to the library in order to check most likely. "We will be spending this last week of actual classes cataloging various examples of Industrial America, as opposed to covering the Cold War, and the War on Terror." It was a noticeable improvement. His America to 1870 classes were getting shunted to looking at various examples of agriculture starting with squash gardens, and three crop rotations... and hopefully not some idiotic waste of time of looking at war time victory gardens. Jethro Tull would be a lot more useful... but still more likely was going to be the need to trade for food.

The collected freshmen, and sophmores looked at him. "So this for a grade?" One of them managed to ask.

"Technically, yes." He replied, and quite frankly he didn't see the point, or rather he understood that the ... idea was to coax the students along but he wasn't sure it was going to work. "Your grades as far as the university needs to be concerned have been entered already, this will merely replace the remaining coursework." He was not going to be grading term papers, and Final exams in this situation. "This is a practicum substituion for that remaining coursework."

They divided off into groups on their own, and started trying to prod through the various material in the crates. There were probably rats, roaches, and spiders around here... it was an old building, but it was something to do. He started dragging another shop lamp over.

"what are we going to do with all of this?" An airy voice asked after he had started examing a part of a grinder machine that was probably twice his own age.

He glanced at the blonde undergrad, and the sorority logo emblazoned tee shirt, "In theory we might be able to put some of it back into service," His tone of incredulity suggested he found most of this junk would work without some serious jury rigging... and even then... "That," He gestured to the Pratt and Whitney, "Works, we could do a lot with it, as far as stuff on lathes go." He amended, and he had a smaller Eglin at home, that if hadn't weighed so much damned much would have been better suited here in the mill. "They," The museum people, "want to make crankshafts, or see if they get the steam engine working. I don't know where they intend to find the people who know how to make these things though." There were not a lot of navy people in town. He doubted there were any machinist mates, and even if they were if they'd ever used something like this. Even if they had... well, "They might have the schematics for that king of stuff though." Otherwise they'd be fumbling along blind, and that didn't seem effective.

"But we have cars," It was almost a whine, "why do we need a train?"
There were a variety of reasons. A variety of ways to answer that question. A some point any of the men here should have lived through a fuel shortage regardless of how minor or a nuisance as it would have been.

"In theory the train is steam powered, we can burn logs if we have to to run it. In practice though," He stopped, "There aren't any roads, or rails so distance travel is impractical." If the town was serious about getting around town focusing on keeping the buses running long term seemed a lot more practical since as far as he was aware they didn't have a dearth of train manufacturists besides the dilettantes at the museum. It could very well be ten years before they had a working train, assuming they had the steel for the tracks, that could go anywhere important.

Any further discussion ended when the heavy steel mill door opened. The entrance to Patrick Square let in the mid morning light to compete with the shop lamps, and were temporarily obscured by the figure of men. He'd been expecting this. The head of county board of commerce had arrived, and with him some large heavyset man in suspenders, plus one more. Visitors from the extended family, and underscored the reason he had gone into academia as a job in the first place after leaving the service. No, now with the likelihood of catastrophe it was obvious where his expectations were.

Optics, and resources were important to politics, but optics only got you so far if you didn't have the resources to get things done. The classical system of patronage thrived in such enviroments, but loosely knit alliances between nominal equals was also self evident. The net was closing. Joseph Gunther was tall and had farm weathered skin that had been common place to his generation of southerners. His associates were introduced as man from the power company, and someone from Oliver's uncle's staff. The sorority member stared at them like they might as well have been from New York... or Mars.

Joseph Gunther worst of all had brought a copy a paper... that he had probably pulled from his own university web page, about the Civilian Conservation Corp. That had been politics too, the school had wanted something about local history for the department, and no one had wanted to touch the civil war, reconstruction or the civil rights era. It was a puff piece liberally sprinkled with old newsreel black and whites.

Andrew Bracken, the power guy, hadn't even bothered reading it, and was trying to do so surreptiously as they talked while the students pawed over everything else that had been pulled out of storage. Michael Novak the last of them was taking notes like he was some gumshoe detective from the forties. "So it could be done?" The older Gunther demanded.

"Yes." Definitive answer. It could be done. There were enough farms who had the machinery for it... but... "Biggest hang up will be gas." He admitted hedging finally. If they had still been in the south he couldn't have fathomed organizing work crews in the weather, without a working economy anyway he still thought that would be a problem, but presumably they had some solution to that problem. He could concede that there were several short term measures they could employ to buy time for longer term ones... but they might dangerously risk harvest potential, which would be especially risky given the new climate. Then again he was not a farmer either. "A lot of the John deres though," and probably every other brand of modern dedicated farming tractor, "have GPS equipment and programing thats useless to us now." He frowned, "Look, France in this time period needs Baltic grain to stay fed, we're in the same boat, have the same problem. We need access to eastern grain markets to stay fed."

The adult middle class of the rural south, and indeed in the suburban south in the eighties and nineties by virtue of social mores, economic availability, and other standards had participated in a variety of small agriculture cultivation. Things like growing a few acres of corn or such, but that had fallen away. It had been falling to the wayside as gas prices rose, and really had dropped off after the great recession of the housing market imploding. With a third to almost a half of the county's population in the city that was the county seat risking the farms was an almost unconciousnable risk.

Even suggesting it to the farmers or the agriculture department should have sparked a riot. Assuming they had asked about it.

Two hours later he was back on the main campus... which basically had meant he had gone up the road on the shuttle, walked across the grass and headed into the offices. It was stuffy but not unbearable even without air conditioning. Most of the staff had opened windows, but still decided to escape outside.

Most of the college wasn't here. Most of it anyway. Social Science was the very broad classification of study of human society and its branches. As an academic discipline... it was like herding cats. It was why the university had always had a hard time managing the various egos. That was also why the economics professors were off in the business college. The college of Social Science's dean bid him into a chair, and offered him a drink.

It was funny how quickly dry the campus offices were supposed to be went out the window. "I've got the ROTC cadets working, and that's rather what I wanted to talk about." Jordan Webb pushed over a series of print offs. "School administration has already decided that everyone in the dorms is staying where they are." That much was apparent even with limited electricity extension cords had finally been run from the library to the quad to power speakers, where even now the likes of 'Post Malone', and whoever else was hot before they had gotten shifted over. Neither professor seemed thrilled by the newly returned racket, but unlike some people who wouldn't be named had yet to start blaring music from their offices... Campus police had begun surreptiously doing welfare checks every so often on the professors now on top of that. "I think we can all agree that ROTC could use some more practical experience. I've spoken with Joseph Gunther, and as a proxy to the county, and if you're willing we have an idea that we'd like to trial run."

If you're willing... hah as if it was really a request.
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Notes: its been a minute since I've updated this, but this one of things like in 1632 that makes no sense with the later books.

France, and England were economically dependent on the dutch for the baltic trade routes. The league of Ostend makes no fucking sense. France needs the baltic open to avoid famine, England (regardless of Charles being a moron) knows it needs access to that timber for the navy, and the idea that Richeliu would willinging entertain strengthening the hapsburg ring is ludicrous but hey thats canon so when we get there we're gonna roll with it

And in 1636 when the consequences come to call well there you go. And thats another thing, I don't think Flint knew enough to recognize why the League of Ostend made no geopolitical sense cause I don't think he understands understood the period, I don't think this was a case of him knowingly handing them an idiot ball, I think he just made assumptions about political motivations and wanted to lean into the stereotype that Richeliu was a political machiavaleian super villian

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ATP said:

Yes,Flint was ignorant.He belived in bad spanish inquisition burning witches,when in reality from 1616 they refused to even check such cases,becouse they do not belived in magic.
He also belived,that they targeted jews,which again,is lie - they were interested only in burning catholics who become heretics.Well,childrapists,too.

Other mistakes - Cromwell as kind of good figure.He was good general,but that is all.He tried to fuck England into Old Testament izrael,that is why everybody welcomed King when he croaked.He supported France against Spain,which was insanity,becouse in his times main enemy become France.
And,he really genocided irish - which Flint deny in his book.

I am from Poland,and he do now knew why really we were fucked - main reason was not lack of strong Kings,but standing army and strong cities.
And polish cities,except Gdańsk,were fucked becouse our Kings gave jews there more rights then christian merchants - and it fucked economy.

Becouse,contrary to what people think,jews were not so great in economy,only in removint competitors.

Not mention showing winged hussarls as berserkers,when they were very disciplined soldiers.And then why they keep winning.

But,i agree,that Legue of Ostende nonsense is biggest one.

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Imperator Pax said:

and for this, since canonically the League of Ostend is a thing, I'm going to let it play out, but I'm going to justify it in that Richeliu believed in mercantilism, so he's thinking hey if we get rid of the Dutch doing the carrying trade that means more trade for France right? Right guys?

Well no, because now no one is selling France food, good luck maintaining that army, and similarly the dutch losses, and the English losses are bad for everyone. To an extent at least for the early books I'm going to be working around that, but like the overall aim is to get into the late 1630s eventually.

... gah https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baen_Free_Library: Baltic War was published almost twenty years ago now, and it still trips me out that up to 1638 (the book published last year) and ninety some books in the series.

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ATP said:

Quin tomb - better do not try open it,dude belived in immortality through mercury,and there supposed to be entire lakes of it.People would die.

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Imperator Pax said:

Well in this case, one of th things that comes of it is it explains earlier the existing heavy metal traces in the soil and water, which catalyzes other effects down the road. With the understanding that, hmm yeah we should watch what we put into our water supplies guys.

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ATP said:

According to what i read,dude used kind of ointment with mercury,becouse belived that it made him immortal.
And lakes made out of mercury in his tombs really supposed to exist,but,after 1920 years,it all arleady go into soil and water.
So yes,do not touch it,and do not take water from nearby sources.

P.S If His coffin is really full of mercury and well made,then ,when somebody finally get him,should find very nice corpse,not skeleton.

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