Esquestria: The House of the Sun - A pony cultist experience

[Venerable Ro]

I am still not so fond of everyone wanting to attack before the Bureau gets our Names more info to work with.

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If the Bureau gets a chance to document what Copper's cult has, then they're going to notice when they roll in and discover holes in the facade (such as Copper having gone missing). It's the same principle as looting expeditions that our Investigators scout out.

 

[Alan975]

If the Bureau gets a chance to document what Copper's cult has, then they're going to notice when they roll in and discover holes in the facade (such as Copper having gone missing). It's the same principle as looting expeditions that our Investigators scout out.

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Yes, that is what people have claimed before. I am not convinced.

Could go either way, but it just sounds a bit too much like hopes and dreams (as usual) that this whole operation will go smoothly.

Like Seriously.
I can't be the only one to find most of the offered plans absurd, right?

Some detailing in which way they want different objectives to be performed based on made up scenarios when we only have the slightest guess about how the cult is structured or run?

IMO, it should be a simple 3 step plan.
Goal 1: Kill Copper.
Goal 2: hide cult connection.
Goal 3: confront Name.

Not 1-3 paragraphs per goal, that is not going to work.

At least not if we don't have more information.


And on the topic of risk.
We do not know how far the investigators will get, we do not know if they'll have heard a few rumors caried by the winds or if they'll be on a stakeout the second our Names kick in a door.

Yet so far, every example that has been brought up has been stated as if it were a done deal.

Even you.

If the Bureau gets a chance to document what Copper's cult has,

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You assume that they will get so far as to get a clue about the artifacts and books that the cult has?

So you say that they'd manage to infiltrate the cults presumably most secure holdings? Or bribe the information out of ponies that are ruled by a Grail user?

We're not aiming to take land deeds, stocks or gold here.

Or do you mean to say that they will interrogate the survivors after our assault, and be most suspicious about some missing magical doodads and tomes? Things that normal pony society already has? That that will raise more suspicion than the fact that either-

1: A massive fight with appropriate collateral occurred.
Or
2: That the leader(s) just all decided to take their own life/mysteriously vanish/ succumb to a freak accident days before the constables start breaking knees?

 

[Venerable Ro]

Yet so far, every example that has been brought up has been stated as if it were fact.

Even you.

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What I am saying, is that any information gathered by the Bureau, actionable information useful to the assault, will then be altered by the assault, creating an inexplicable discrepancy.

The biggest one of course, would be the Bureau identifying Copper as the tentative leader or at least a figure of importance/interest. If she then immediately turns up missing right after the report is filed, what conclusions are they supposed to draw?

Going in early with preliminary scrying and then on-site guidance from the Name of Lantern and the Secret Histories allows us to establish the story and avoid creating questions for ourselves.

 

[Shaper47]

Like Seriously.
I can't be the only one to find most of the offered plans absurd, right?

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I do kinda find the restrictions on the assault a bit hubris'y.

But given what Velvet's sending I can understand the hubris.

IMO, it should be a simple 3 step plan.
Goal 1: Kill Copper.
Goal 2: hide cult connection.
Goal 3: confront Name.

Not 1-3 paragraphs per goal, that is not going to work.

At least not if we don't have more information.

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I totally understand having it simple and leaving it to the Names.

Unfortunately I couldn't be so concise in my goals.

 

[Talon Tiger Dino]

Yes, that is what people have claimed before. I am not convinced.

Could go either way, but it just sounds a bit too much like hopes and dreams (as usual) that this whole operation will go smoothly.

Like Seriously.
I can't be the only one to find most of the offered plans absurd, right?

Some detailing in which way they want different objectives to be performed based on made up scenarios when we only have the slightest guess about how the cult is structured or run?

IMO, it should be a simple 3 step plan.
Goal 1: Kill Copper.
Goal 2: hide cult connection.
Goal 3: confront Name.

Not 1-3 paragraphs per goal, that is not going to work.

At least not if we don't have more information.


And on the topic of risk.
We do not know how far the investigators will get, we do not know if they'll have heard a few rumors caried by the winds or if they'll be on a stakeout the second our Names kick in a door.

Yet so far, every example that has been brought up has been stated as if it were a done deal.

Even you.



You assume that they will get so far as to get a clue about the artifacts and books that the cult has?

So you say that they'd manage to infiltrate the cults presumably most secure holdings? Or bribe the information out of ponies that are ruled by a Grail user?

We're not aiming to take land deeds, stocks or gold here.

Or do you mean to say that they will interrogate the survivors after our assault, and be most suspicious about some missing magical doodads and tomes? Things that normal pony society already has? That that will raise more suspicion than the fact that either-

1: A massive fight with appropriate collateral occurred.
Or
2: That the leader(s) just all decided to take their own life/mysteriously vanish/ succumb to a freak accident days before the constables start breaking knees?

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Sounds like you might be interested in Plan They Have A Winter Name, where our Expedition Goals read as follows:

"--[X] What is their objective? (WRITE IN what your followers must do, in order of PRIORITY)
---[X] Neutralize Copper.
---[X] Neutralize Neighnia.
---[X] Remove any evidence tying us to the cult.
---[X] Loot their library, artifacts, bits, and so forth, should time allow.
--[X] Anything else? (WRITE IN any other orders or specifications you have)
---[X] Minimize innocent casualties.
---[X] Leave as little trace or tracks as possible."

Not a single paragraph to be found, at best 2 sentences. I will admit though, it goes before the Investigators rather than after.

 

[Alan975]

Sounds like you might be interested in Plan They Have A Winter Name

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Yes, you were on the right track it seems.

Seems that I just... started glossing over 'em cuz they were samey and since I already had Sveta's as a safe bet and Shaper's as a fun one.

 

[Shaper47]

--[X] What is their objective? (WRITE IN what your followers must do, in order of PRIORITY)
---[X] Neutralize Copper.
---[X] Neutralize Neighnia.

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I don't know it just feels a bit disingenuous to have that plan name and to put Neighnia as not the highest priority.

---[X] Minimize innocent casualties.
---[X] Leave as little trace or tracks as possible."

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I understand why these are here but it's just a bit to much hubris for me. After how close the Twilight breakout was I really don't feel like holding back, not with our daughter in the line of fire.

 

[Alan975]

The biggest one of course, would be the Bureau identifying Copper as the tentative leader or at least a figure of importance/interest.

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??
Be it through murder or kidnapping, the cult is going to be down a leader.
If there are enough survivors/ if the Bureau get info that there ever was a cult, then they will know that a leader was to be found.
That is not possible to avoid, short of calling of the search after they cuff a few scapegoats.

This will not -can not! naratively- be something that just blows over.
There will be consequenses.

So lets make sure that one problem -namely, someone who actucly tries to end us and a rouge Name of ending- is solved before the next few spring up.

a bit to much hubris for me.

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Eh, they're not the main point I think. Nice streatch goals to have, but not above the main mission.

Actually, preferable to have rather than something like more looting.

Bits we can get, obscurity is far more precious.

 

[Shaper47]

Eh, they're not the main point I think. Nice streatch goals to have, but not above the main mission.

Actually, preferable to have rather than something like more looting.

Bits we can get, obscurity is far more precious.

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More narratively I prefer for Velvet to put Selene above stretch goals.

 

[Alan975]

More narratively I prefer for Velvet to put Selene above stretch goals.

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Am I missing something?
Tiger's plan still lets her go on the hunt and she is not in any great risk compared to the other plans.
Or are you thinking of your gambit with Stepps? cuz that would be a shame to miss out on

 

[Venerable Ro]

Be it through murder or kidnapping, the cult is going to be down a leader.

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You're missing the point. It's not about Copper's cult suffering rapid unplanned disassembly, the ship has long sailed on this being handled silently.

The point is avoiding documented proof that we knew specifics of Copper's cult before said disassembly took place. We're avoiding means and opportunity, since motive is already patently indisputable.

Our investigators are the best in Equestria, there's no earthly way that Velvet could have gotten some other black-bag squad onto her attacker's trail and had them clean house before the Bureau could even find said attackers.

Therefore, whoever did do it can't have been sent by Velvet Covers.

All of that logic falls apart if the attack goes through after the investigation goes through and the report is delivered. Because then we have means and opportunity to go with our motive, though admittedly the first suspicion would probably be something along the lines of a Royal Guard black ops unit we didn't tell anyone about.

 

[Shaper47]

Am I missing something?
Tiger's plan still lets her go on the hunt and she is not in any great risk compared to the other plans.
Or are you thinking of your gambit with Stepps? cuz that would be a shame to miss out on

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I'm thinking about her no holds bar Realization for if she gets in a tight spot.

So if there's like a giant undead army backed by Windigos she can still beat them all.

 

[Alan975]

Therefore, whoever did do it can't have been sent by Velvet Covers-
- the first suspicion would probably be something along the lines of a Royal Guard black ops unit we didn't tell anyone about.

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Nope, I can't see that as how the logics would play out.

Flawed be it of me to say, but your argument reaks of rationalization.

Right now we are appear to be a bedridden mare with only the Bureau to call on when it comes to resources.
That they would assume that their boss is the source of this counter-attack when we were the ones to sick the Bureau on Copper to begin with?
Not likely.

Everything hinges on Copper getting dead and proof of our cult involvement disappearing.



Everything else is pointless what-ifs that we can't nor should waste time planning for.

 

[OurLadyOfWires]

I apologize for posting something in this thread that has nothing to do with the quest itself. This is something I avoid doing, and that I respectfully ask other people to avoid doing as well.

However, it does relate to CS Lore. And more than one person has already expressed the desire to read things I write. So, I apologize to the general reader who is not interested, but I wrote a thing somewhere else:

Earth Bet: House of the Sun (Cultist Simulator/Worm)

You've been recruited into a cult, something small that turned out to be just a little bit more. However you can't just leave, you agree with their points after all. The world is crooked and there are things older than the history that is known. A shame that most people aren't likely to see it...

forums.sufficientvelocity.com

Have a great night everyone. We will reconvene in a few days to count votes and proceed with our story.

 

[Alan975]

I apologize for posting something in this thread that has nothing to do with the quest itself.

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Not sure about the others, but I'm not exactly here because I have a burning passion for MLP or CS, good stuff needs reeding.

 

[Shaper47]

Having finished my previous Cadance omake (don't worry Cadance we still love you!). I'm thinking on what to write next.

For ideas I have the attack on Velvet from a different point of view, a son doing dream conversations like his brother did that one time and a lesson.

Any preferences my friends?

 

[Sveta08]

And on the topic of risk.
We do not know how far the investigators will get, we do not know if they'll have heard a few rumors caried by the winds or if they'll be on a stakeout the second our Names kick in a door.

Yet so far, every example that has been brought up has been stated as if it were a done deal.

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I'm not sure if it will help, but I'll break down the reasoning for my thought on it at least. Or at least the division of cases.

Far as I see it, there are 4 outcomes. All based around two things, which determine our choice. Do the Detectives find useful information, Yes or No? Could the Detectives find things out about the attack, Yes or No? Do we attack before, or after the Bureau starts to look for things?


Case 1: Info No, Attack No
Case 2: Info Yes, Attack No
Case 3: Info No, Attack Yes
Case 4: Info Yes, Attack Yes


Unlike in a raw stats problem, the odds of the Detectives finding info, and finding things out about the attack aren't pure coinflips. However, as I don't have the odds for them to, or to not find things, I have to assume both options are equally likely. Bear that in mind, as the personal bias people have for weights will change how it's viewed, and the odds for each case are not pure 25% each. The numbers aren't that pretty... And I don't know where or how they will lean.

Then, the breakdown of the cases really says it. We have 1/4 cases that we send the Bureau and we find useful info and get away with it, 1/4 that the choice didn't matter and they found nothing useful, and 2/4 cases where the Bureau sees something about the attack.

So, players more or less run the chances. Do we feel like risking the 1 in 4 case chance to get away with it, and risk the 2 in 4 case chance that the Bureau has a problem, or questions on their hands? If so, the attack happens after the Bureau gets there.
Or, do you say the attack happens before hand, and guarantee that chance where, no info is gained, but no info is "leaked" so to speak? Then, the attack happens before the Bureau gets there.

 

[jason1stlegion]

Unlike in a raw stats problem, the odds of the Detectives finding info, and finding things out about the attack aren't pure coinflips.

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Bird has mentioned that the Bureau is extremely skilled (eg in the guarantee that if they investigate the attack they will find Copper's trail). I think them finding info is rather more likely than a coin flip based on that.

 

[Alan975]

Or, do you say the attack happens before hand, and guarantee that chance where, no info is gained, but no info is "leaked" so to speak? Then, the attack happens before the Bureau gets there.

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Very logical and sound, but that I think works more for a pure story or reality.

I'm thinking along the lines of the game mechanics.

We know that our option is do now, or do later + more info.
I think that -with everything we know- it will be a disaster if Copper survives and perhaps if our manuscripts are found.
While waiting does pose a risk of intrigue, it lessens the risk of failure.

So it comes down to how we as players value those two factors.

 

[jason1stlegion]

Why are we prioritizing Copper in the current plans again?

As I understand there are three main ways Copper can attack us: revealing our involvement with the cult, EiB via Neighnia, and thugs.

The first is the most important for us to resolve, given it directly risks a game-over and is also the reason we haven't just used the Bureau on Copper.
The second is a risk to either our family or our Axe summoning, and eats up an Axe action every time it happens.
The third is admittedly also a risk, but without the above two we can just sic the Bureau on Copper and resolve the threat entirely.

So in order of priority, we need to retrieve the manuscripts, retrieve Neignia, and then Copper is the absolute last objective.

Don't have time to make a plan, or I'd add another one to the pile.

Edit: Incidentally, if Copper survives and we get the manuscripts, there's no reason for anyone to believe her. We can easily fob off those that do as due to her having Grail abilities. So Copper isn't a threat without the manuscripts, Neighnia, or the cult.

 

[Alan975]

Why are we prioritizing Copper in the current plans again?

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but... climatic showdow?

Probs because Copper has been -if I remember corectly- identefied as our enemy. Very easy to focus on 'em as the prime target then, when they're seen as our "equal" in a sence.

Also, she can blab to the cops, Neighnia probbably wouldnt (Just don't think that would work naratively) and books can be found after or burned during the assult.

 

[Alan975]

Any preferences my friends?

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...Why not a two-in-one?

Honestly, that's a hard pick you've given.



Cadanse is always a treat, but seeing other characters reactions to the Sons unique brand of horrific borderline-innocent evil would be fun.

 

[Venerable Ro]

Everything hinges on Copper getting dead and proof of our cult involvement disappearing.



Everything else is pointless what-ifs that we can't nor should waste time planning for.

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So you agree that we need to act as soon as possible to eliminate Copper and resolve the situation. Whatever is the issue then?

 

[Alan975]

So you agree that we need to act as soon as possible to eliminate Copper and resolve the situation. Whatever is the issue then?

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Absolutely not.
As always, the plans that are thrown around here first come up with how they think that the senario will play out and then stick to that narow and riggid idea no matter what anyone says.
Am I just overthinking things?
Who knows, maybe Bird loves the idea of following a strict sett of demands on how the Hitt squad is suposed to do their job.
Be that for challenge of writting it or watching it crash and burn as soon as we roll low.
Its not as if we have a presedent sett of the writer having the characters do the optimal moves instead of us micro-manage voting on it.
Shall I simplify my argument to the most important thing?

More information to work with when going in blind = higher chanse of dead Copper = Good.

No information -besides the hunch that Bird (I imagine) had to feed us when people ran rampant- IE, going in blind = lower chanse of dead Copper = bad.