That was a little bit of an upset, I think. Both Recoil and Alea Iacta Est beat out Wyvern for top scorer this time around, giving Recoil the win.
Wyvern will be next up, though.
Oh, almost certainly. Even if
Wyvern continues to underperform from its previous heights, the margin between it and the next-nearest story is still going to be 150+ votes. No contest in vote 77; Wyvern looks set to be the first story to hit 1,200+ votes.
Votes 78 and 79 aren't much different. The margins have climbed from last prediction:
One More Trigger is now projected to win Vote 78 at 1,100+ votes, more than 60 ahead of its competition, while
Slippery Slope is set to win Vote 79 in the same range, by a margine of over 110.
Vote 80 is a lot closer, comparatively speaking.
Hostage Situation is penciled in as the winner, but by a margin of less than 20 votes. High-roller
Alea Iacta Est is right behind it, earning almost three times as many votes per round. If Hostage Situation holds its ground, then AIE will have to settle for Vote 81, at a healthy margin of 60ish votes.
Then
Trump Card blows past everyone else to win at a margin of nearly 150 votes, possibly joining Wyvern in the 1,200 Club.
Votes 83 and 84 are shaping up to be highly contentious. On paper they look to go to
Security! and
War Games, respectively, but on further examination... not so sure. Right now, War Games has 676 votes to Security!'s 560. Over the last 10 rounds, Security has averaged 81 votes per round; War Games usually gets 64. But just this most recent round, both stories came in well ahead of their predictions, Security! by 15 votes and War Games by 26.
If these vote-rates continue for them,
War Games is almost certain to beat out the longer-running
Security!, which will then take the next win. But if they stick closer to their running averages, Security! may score a narrow win. Right now, it's too far out to say for certain.
Whichever of them wins in 83, the other wins in 84, and then
I, Panacea coasts to an easy victory in Vote 85 by a margin of 150+, probably joining the ranks of the 1,200s in doing so. After that it's either
Wyvern or
Recoil, depending largely on whether everyone's favorite not-a-dragon can recover from its stumbles.
I'm contemplating a change to the predictions formula, where the average of the last 10 votes is then further averaged with only the most recent one; it may help adjust for sudden variations in voting habits; we'll see.
Beyond Vote 86, estimated rounds-to-win are as follows:
Alea Iacta Est: 5
All Alone: 5
Bait & Switch: 25
Confrontation II: 8
Danny & Taylor: 15
Hostage Situation: 20
I, Panacea: 11
Junior Hero: 15
Meet the Heberts: 8
MirrorVerse: 2
NSW: 5
Nemesis: 18
One More Trigger: 12
Really Bad End: 2
Recoil: 1
Security!: 12
Slippery Slope: 15
Trump Card: 8
War Games: 17
Wyvern: 8
Again, that count starts from Vote 86.
Accuracy this round was overall 96.31%. Most accurate in both proportion and total votes was
Junior Hero; it came in 1 vote ahead, with an accuracy of 99.87%. As mentioned earlier, we had several stories deviate greatly from predictions. Least accurate of these proportionally was recent winner
Confrontation II, coming in at only 65.15% of expected votes. Greatest difference in raw vote count goes to
War Games, earning 26 more votes than anticipated.
Not posting rankings for vote-earners this time, since I'm currently re-evaluating the accuracy of that prediction. Will run the potential replacement system side-by-side with the current one for a while, see which gets better results.
My vote:
[X] Meet the Heberts - 6
[X] NSW - 5
[X] War Games - 4
[X] One More Trigger - 3
[X] Security! - 2
[X] Recoil - 1
