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Esquestria: The House of the Sun - A pony cultist experience

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Uruguayan spider said:
Wait, when did we decide to eat the Ponyville president?
I thought we were going to do it with Spoiled Rich and use Filthy Rich for the Moth Sacrament.
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We are eating Random McRandomface the Unlucky Victim for [Invitation to Dinner]

[Honored Guest] is mareinette's social action AP that lets her do a social action on our behalf and befriend mayor mare so that she doesn't get SHOVEL'd by the wolf cult
 
ses said:
I'm confused this is the second post you made arguing in favor of Velvet going and you're voting against sending her?
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Man, I'm pondering! Ruminating! Considering! Reflecting! :V

Abdicating agency in a tense spot feels difficult to do. I know we can't influence the roll more than we have. But I feel we're passing up a vote that looks something like:

Hyperthermia has come to Equestria. Who, or what, do you want to save?
* Cadance
* Shining Armor
* The Lunar Bureau
* Get out of there, and get a head start on what comes next.

It's not trivial!

… but it might be rolling the dice for the Silver Key that gets me there. I want to know what it does so badly.
 
[X] (VELVET) You will personally join the Bureau in the expedition.
[X] (CHERENKOLT) Cherenkolt will focus on aiding the detectives.
[X] (CHERENKOLT) Cherenkolt will focus on aiding the researchers.
 
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[X] (VELVET) You will personally join the Bureau in the expedition.
[X] (CHERENKOLT) Cherenkolt will personally join the expedition.
 
Normally I'd be all for the sub-optimal option if it has a good character motivation behind it, but this one doesn't really cross the threshold.

I don't think that Velvet would think that Daybreaker would kill Cadance, and with the family as prepared as can be without running for the hills right now...
Velvet is not soloing Daybreaker- not even holding her back, not even with Solid Snake and Pinocchio.
The only way she could try and salvage a fumble on Cadences' part here is through the Wolf, and that can be done when we get back.

That or by charging headfirst at it with every Name and hoping that a [Soft!New Game+] isn't worse than another stain.

[X] (VELVET) You will personally join the Bureau in the expedition.
[X] (CHERENKOLT) Cherenkolt will personally join the expedition.
 
On one hand I think Velvet should be there cause while she can't help directly with Celestia it could be a matter of her being able to react and save some lives and potentially get get more done before rushing to All in. On the other hand the potential for the silver key calls to me and we need that book. Also the fact Velvet has gone on so few expedition is one of my disappointments about the quest so far. Not a criticism of our choices, just sad because the ones we have done were so interesting.
Honest question though, if we do have Velvet go, it feels like a bit overkill to also send Cherenkolt.
 
Alan975 said:
The only way she could try and salvage a fumble on Cadences' part here is through the Wolf, and that can be done when we get back.
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It might not, some RA's are only available in the moment, like killing Master and making Soft an apostle.

And considering how it was worded.
OurLadyOfWires said:
She will be WELL POSITIONED when Cadance rolls her dice, and will be able to react quickly to whatever happens.
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I doubt we will have a good chance of taking out Daybreaker if we are not there.
 
DelightedOne said:
I doubt we will have a good chance of taking out Daybreaker if we are not there.
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Even if Daybreaker happens, I don't think wolfing Celestia (and Equestria) is likely to be the right option. Instead we just push the All-In button and (hopefully!) come back with the power and perspective of an Hour.
 
All I know is that I am very sad my idea to have Velvet Axe grab a foal predator for our meal lost, and instead we just have some random sad schmuck.
 
OurLadyOfWires said:
That was the best possible future. Silky Stream knew that.
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Ah! Ah ha ha! Oh so sweet and tantalizing an offering! So gentle and kind and blessed.
How cruel to show a path that may once never be! But such is the way of things.
If it were possible, then showing it would be to present the truth before it's time. If it weren't, then it may be shown. Only we who do not know and walk on in ignorance and foolishness can reveal the truth before it's time.

How beautiful.
But, this is not our path.
Such is the way of Mothers. To try and offer to the best of our abilities. Even should such actions restrict and constrain.
Such is the crime of Children. To be unable to sway the course of history until their time.

This is not our future. Ours is not the best and brightest of all possible hopes. But it never was.
Or.... perhaps it never would be, with how we think and act and split. I don't know.
Suffice to say? It's beautiful. And makes me smile and laugh in the way only someone world-weary can on hearing a child's dream.

Thank you


Now then!


ahem

Set the Stage! Light the lamps! Ready the harp! Draw the Curtain!
It's time for the Performance of a Lifetime!

Ha! Forgive me my theatrics, but oh how sweet to see this!
How terrible yes! But how much I simply wish to laugh and cry and look on in wonder and terror.
Is this what it feels like to see the sea reseed before you, not knowing if it is tidal wave or mere low tide? The world not quite lost in the balance, but to see and to wonder? I do not know!
But enough of these words! There is importance here.

To address the options in the room?
I see no future where Velvet does not want to be near her daughter's sister, should aught go awry. Risk and threat and consequence to be sure, but often and before have we sent Axe alone to assist. Now too we trust her with cohort... or the cohort with her? An important distinction, but irrelevant.
Truely a shame. I have no doubt Axe would have many thoughts for Velvet today of all days. To accept a Feast with a Monster. To shear short the connection with others. To seek Power for a sake not it's own, but sought all the same... Oh the whims of a Mother to a Axe-wounded Daughter! That would have been pretty poetry, their talk.

But I... must also admit. I see and fear that should something go wrong with Cadence's plans and Velvet not be near to try and handle it, the whinging and grumbling and complaints of lost opportunity would be catastrophic. I believe it is the right narrative for Velvet to stay, but I won't deny some small part of me also says that to avoid some of the grumbling and arguing.... Ha! Even should I, as often do, rarely speak much to it.

Now as for our Forge Blessed Son! That, is a different matter entirely!
My friends! Strangers at arms and familiar faces one and all! I ask you!
How much do you like to gamble?

I see paths before us here! Paths upon which I am as of yet uncertain where to place my hand! So I will tell you all.
Three paths made six and three will always be chosen. The expedition will go on, the researchers will go on, the investigation will go on. Of each path there are two options. Our Forge Son goes, or does not. Only one can we pick.
If we send him on the expedition, he will be away. Should there be grail on such a path, he will assist, but that is all. This perhaps, I see as the safest path for him and for us.
If we send him to find the Winter Painting, the odds we will have more fruitful a search are far and away improved. However, and yes However not And, this will be delivered before Cadence has made her move.
If we send him to research the Once Future Changeling, the odds that we should learn something truely special are far more likely before it is stolen away. However, and yes still However and not And, this will be delivered before Cadence has made her move.

Why am I restating the obvious?
Because! Because quite simply do we Want those reports to be done before Cadence has made her move?
If there is evidence of Winter's touch upon this world, do we want to know it, and do we want it to be known, for it to be a part in the world, before? When the mere fact of that information being known could alter the odds? How might Celestia unfurl her solar winds to scorch a Winterblighted land? How might we try to devote time and energy and planning to it before we know if the Sun's Ire is roused?
If there is information to be found in the body and contamination of that changeling, do we want to know that before? Would the deception, the discrepency, the investigation into a monster that The Sun has decreed vile be seen as contrary to her will? Should we slip free and see a new path there to quiet and smother the sun, would we even want that opportunity to be seen and known before? And at the costs?

I do not know my friends! And while I am certain there will be quibbling on percentages and odds, I am rare in looking that direction. But I see the most important part of that question as...
Do you want your Answer before, or After? If you want it before, it is more likely to succeed. But if it succeeds, it feels like to alter the odds with The Sun. Send him away on expedition is most like to not alter the odds, but unlike to alter in any direction.
Personally? I would like to see about the Changing, but I shall hold off on that part of my vote.

[X] (VELVET) You will NOT join the Bureau in the expedition.
 
Talon Tiger Dino said:
All I know is that I am very sad my idea to have Velvet Axe grab a foal predator for our meal lost, and instead we just have some random sad schmuck.
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Isn't that what we intended? Then Axe refused to tell us who was the person she kidnapped, saying that it didn't matter. Perhaps she found it farcical to try to select a "deserving" sacrifice for a Grail ritual with a monster like Mareinette in the first place.

[X] (VELVET) You will personally join the Bureau in the expedition.
[X] (CHERENKOLT) Cherenkolt will personally join the expedition.
[X] (CHERENKOLT) Cherenkolt will focus on aiding the detectives.

I think we must place trust in Cadance, because if she fails I feel there's going to be little hope of recovery either way. If Velvet is going, then Cherenkolt could be dropped from the expedition but Neighnia and the changeling carcass aren't really a high priority to get fast updates on. Still, after the expedition the team on Neighnia could probably use the help the most so I'll toss a vote there too.
 
Quaxotia said:
I think we must place trust in Cadance, because if she fails I feel there's going to be little hope of recovery either way. If Velvet is going, then Cherenkolt could be dropped from the expedition but Neighnia and the changeling carcass aren't really a high priority to get fast updates on. Still, after the expedition the team on Neighnia could probably use the help the most so I'll toss a vote there too.
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Cherenkolt is there because he's personally providing +30 to Grail rolls (being the only source of Name General Bonus due to Axe's antisocial for 15+15=30 assuming that Bureau General Bonus is 15 in all cases, which is probably an overestimate) in addition to +30 and a reroll to Forge.
 
I think it would be for the best if Cherenkolt would do research, because if the Celestia roll catastrophically fails (or just by time), we probably lose access to the corpse. While we can track Neighnia by ourselves without detectives.

I would like for Velvet or Cherenkolt to do the Expedition, but not both. And since Cherenkolt vote is almost certain...

[X] (VELVET) You will NOT join the Bureau in the expedition.
[X] (CHERENKOLT) Cherenkolt will focus on aiding the researchers.
 
des-pair-2 said:
if the Celestia roll catastrophically fails (or just by time), we probably lose access to the corpse
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Yeah, but if the Celestia vote fails, does the corpse matter, at all?

A little buff to the Bureau and some clues on the Changelings is kinda irrelevant when we'd be going All In imminently.
 
Quaxotia said:
Isn't that what we intended? Then Axe refused to tell us who was the person she kidnapped, saying that it didn't matter. Perhaps she found it farcical to try to select a "deserving" sacrifice for a Grail ritual with a monster like Mareinette in the first place.
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Nope! The winning vote for that action just said "preferably a criminal," leaving the matter of who got eaten entirely up to the whims of the famously unaccommodating snake-pony. No specifics were provided or demands set beyond the acquisition of someone to be eaten.
 
Well I've come around. In part I agree with Sveta -- I think any resulting votes would be fun, but man, would they feel high-stakes! We did what we could, now we let the chips fall where they may.

[X] (VELVET) You will personally join the Bureau in the expedition.
 
We definitely were planning on sending both Velvet and Cherenkolt to the expedition back when we made the turn plan. While that doesn't lock us in at this point, I think it's worth running through the math of how expeditions work, and why we might want to send them both.

An expedition has a fixed number of Days that you can spend to overcome Hurdles. It's 5/10/15 days for short/medium/long missions, and each attempt at a Hurdle (pass or fail) costs a day. Failure may also cost statuses, wounds, etc.; we should probably expect some curses as failure modes, given the expedition we're on, in addition to the usual wounds.

This means there are two constraints driving our need for high rolls: 1) Not losing HP/getting maluses and 2) not running out of time and failing the expedition.

How many Hurdles will we have? And how high will the DCs be? Well, we haven't done a Long expedition before, but we have several Short and Mediums. Many thanks to @ses for collating a lot of this data for me:

Selene Hunt
Difficulty: ???/Low
We weren't given DCs here, just our roll, so I'm listing the roll that passed. The DC is less than or equal to this.
1. GRAIL 71
2. FORGE 70

Beneath the Royal Castle 1
Difficulty wasn't stated, but obviously quite easy. Here, Axe didn't even bother using lores, and just smashed the DCs with her expedition bonus, so I'm guessing a bit at the lores based on flavor
1. Lantern 60
2. Knock 80

Crepuscule Jailbreak
Difficulty: Small/Medium
1. Combat encounter
2. Knock 80

Assault an opponent – Copper Secateur
1. Scrying - ritual-defined DCs
2. Scouting - lots of rolls with variable DC targets
3. Combat encounter

The Grave on the Hill
1. Knock 80
2. Heart 90

OK, so short expeditions aside from the copper assault (which doesn't really fit the hurdle structure) all had 2 hurdles, with 5 days to spend on it. DCs varied between 60 (only on baby's first expedition beneath the royal castle) and 90 (on the baldomare level 6 book expedition.) Average of around 75.
Beneath the Royal Castle 2
1. Not Edge or Knock 75 (Axe didn't add any lore; this is wayfinding, so probably a Lantern check.)
2. Not Edge or Knock 70 (Axe didn't add any lore; this is forcing a way through, so probably a Forge check.)
3. Navigation - no roll, just ate a day
4. Not Edge or Knock 80 (Axe didn't add any lore; Sustenance, so probably a Heart or Grail check.)
5. Not Edge or Knock 80 (Axe didn't add any lore; this is diplomacy, so probably a Grail check
6. Knock 60
7. Knock 100

We have one medium expedition. There were 7 hurdles, one of which was autopass, with 10 days to spend. DCs capped out at 100, and averaged about 80.

Extrapolating from here, I'd guess:
12 Hurdles on a Long expedition, with 1 or 2 autopass hurdles. Let's say 2.
Let's say an average DC of 90, max of 110. That's probably conservative for a late game expedition like this, but who knows.

From a time budget standpoint, that means that we need to pass 10x DC 90 checks with 3 or fewer failures.

From a 'let's not get cursed today' standpoint, we probably will have to deal with at least one DC 100+, and we'd really rather not fail it. (In CS, the 4 curse hurdles can be overcome with Heart/Lantern, Heart/Grail, Heart/Winter, Lantern/Moth, for whatever predictive power that holds. Heart makes sense as a high priority stat here.)

If we take all three of us, Axe, Velvet and Cherenkolt, our bonuses should be:

SH: 85+1 reroll
Knock: 105+2 reroll
Moth: 90+1 reroll
Lantern: 100+1 reroll
Forge: 110+2 reroll
Edge: 90
Winter: 100+1 reroll
Heart: 90
Grail: 65+1 reroll (assuming social, so Axe generic bonus doesn't help)

If we don't have Cherenkolt, I think this drops to:
SH: 85+1 reroll
Knock: 105+2 reroll
Moth: 90+1 reroll
Lantern: 100+1 reroll
Forge: 80+1 reroll
Edge: 90
Winter: 100+1 reroll
Heart: 90
Grail: 20+1 reroll (assuming social, so Axe generic bonus doesn't help)

That Grail is getting really, really low; odds of failing a DC90 social check are pretty high. Poor Axe can't apply her +50 expedition bonus to social, and without cherenkolt's +30 expedition bonus and +15 GRAIL bonus, it really sucks. Leaving the Kolt at home accepts a significant chance to fail the expedition if there's more than one social hurdle, or even if we just get unlucky with one. The Forge roll being 80 is probably fine, given a reroll; good chance we have a couple of forge rolls though, since it's one of the more broadly useful lores.

If we have Cherenkolt and not Velvet, I think this drops to:
SH: 65
Knock: 80+1 reroll
Moth: 70
Lantern: 80
Forge: 90+1 reroll
Edge: 65
Winter: 80
Heart: 75
Grail: 45 (assuming social, so Axe generic bonus doesn't help)

This just seems untenable to me. Grail 45 is low enough that we're probably coin-flipping on social checks, and we lose the reroll there. Indeed, we lose rerolls almost everywhere. And if you roll 10 checks with these base values against random lores, I'm pretty sure we have more than three failures in most iterations, so it's very possible that we don't finish the expedition.

And... just to make matters worse, our likely curse-resistance stats are low enough that we're taking a real risk of them bringing home a major malus just when we can't afford it.

Not bringing either of them is complete social suicide, of course:
SH: 65
Knock: 80+1 reroll
Moth: 70
Lantern: 80
Forge: 60
Edge: 65
Winter: 80
Heart: 75
Grail: 0 (assuming social, so Axe... does the Axe thing)

And so I don't think it's viable at all.

I think our original plan to send all three was the right way to do it. We cover each other's weaknesses, with Velvet's across the board boost and rerolls bringing Axe up to near auto-success on most lores, and Cherenkolt bringing Grail up from the hopelessness of Axe. The probably-guaranteed success on forge is welcome too, given how many physical barriers and rough terrain and whatnot can be solved by Forge.
 
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[X] (VELVET) You will personally join the Bureau in the expedition.
[X] (CHERENKOLT) Cherenkolt will personally join the expedition.
 
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