Esquestria: The House of the Sun - A pony cultist experience

[spiderhellian]

[X] You gave him an ultimatum.

I get an ultimatum is harsh. I just don't think a warning is going to do much — to a man already haunted by nightmares and pushing on all the same — and I really do think the Celestia doom clock is very bad.

 

[Fouredged]

Why do I get the sneaking suspicion that "Eclipse"'s proper name is actually "Mirror of Glory"?

But yeah wow that Midday Dew was such a waste of a commissioner action. Lesson learned about trying to spend actions on social without a pre-existing "in". We could have used that action to work over Reproach and get him personally loyal or do Cadance's FO.


[] You gave him nothing.
"Success defines worthiness. If he wishes to Climb, let him.
"Success, and victory, are self-executing virtues."
Will probably end up voting for Warn/Ultimatum but wanted to post that quote in relation to gave him nothing. I think it's pretty evident that we're not going to end up making social links with Fair Trial or Midday Dew. We chose not to take their "ins" at the wedding, we didn't interact with them while the iron was hot either. Not the first time we've tossed valuable AP in the toilet trying to talk to social contacts long after the window of opportunity closed. Would not be the fifth time we've done that.

[X] You gave him an ultimatum.
"He will think his conversation with you was a dream, but that does not matter to you. The next time he steps upon the ashes will be his last."
[X] Open it.
-Velvet Covers and a team of 6 (six) Lunar Bureau Constables will fight against a Windigo. You will first move the jar to a safer place, and make preparations to ensure the creature cannot easily escape during combat, and that it will have no choice but fight to the death.
-Pros: Success will greatly improve your standing with the Lunar Bureau, and will deal with this issue.
-Cons: Combat is always dangerous.

Click to shrink...

It's far from a waste. It let us know exactly where Celestia is getting her lantern knowledge and gives us an easy option to throw a spoke in her wheel. Celestia's lantern exceeding our moth is the current worst known time limit for us, so slowing her down should at least be carefully considered.

Though I worry about using our wolf sons for anything. The wolf makes everything worse.

 

[Sveta08]

I get an ultimatum is harsh. I just don't think a warning is going to do much — to a man already haunted by nightmares and pushing on all the same — and I really do think the Celestia doom clock is very bad

Click to shrink...

Agreed! On, well, pretty much every count.

But a question!
Do you want to kill our only potential contact in Eclipse? We don't know who else is there. How to find them. How far they are.

Kill the canary, and you won't know how bad it gets.

 

[ses]

Agreed! On, well, pretty much every count.

But a question!
Do you want to kill our only potential contact in Eclipse? We don't know who else is there. How to find them. How far they are.

Kill the canary, and you won't know how bad it gets.

Click to shrink...

We just tried to get a canary and failed pretty abjectly. Midday Dew is not a contact and he's not going to be. All we have access to is delaying his progress. Also it's exceedingly, exceedingly, exceedingly unlikely Midday dies to Ash. His progress will just be rendered much much slower by the need to heal the Wounds and Dreads he ends up picking up before progressing further. If he does Mansus Exploration actions while still rocking maluses, that's frankly his own fault

 

[Limabot]

[X] You gave him a warning.

[X] Open it.

 

[Sveta08]

We just tried to get a canary and failed pretty abjectly. Midday Dew is not a contact and he's not going to be. All we have access to is delaying his progress. Also it's exceedingly, exceedingly, exceedingly unlikely Midday dies to Ash. His progress will just be rendered much much slower by the need to heal the Wounds and Dreads he ends up picking up before progressing further. If he does Mansus Exploration actions while still rocking maluses, that's frankly his own fault

Click to shrink...

Hmm. I think you and I are talking about contacts in a different way.

Midnight Dew, unless something happens, is not an ally. If that is how you are measuring a contact, then no. He is not. That, however, is not how I am measuring him as a contact.
Unless the Bureau hands over info, a dangerous thing indeed, he won't be an ally. That window is more or less shut.

But he doesn't have Moth. He isn't... Trained in hiding things like Velvet. Simply seeing him. Knowing he is there. What he is exploring, how far it went... That's useful in my eyes. That is what I view a contact as. Someone who, by knowing them, you learn something.


And besides. If need be, killing him now would put the rest on higher alert and make a dangerous plan of mine less viable.

 

[Earth-Destroyer]

[X] You gave him an ultimatum.
[X] Open it.

Anything that delays the doom clock is good, and would rather not have to spend an action to get Ash to hunt him.

7-1 is an easy victory for us, it would need a several 90+ roll to even hope to do anything.

 

[Darkday]

[X] You gave him an ultimatum.
[X] Open it.

 

[DelightedOne]

And besides. If need be, killing him now would put the rest on higher alert and make a dangerous plan of mine less viable.

Click to shrink...

And it would also make Celestia become even more unstable since she would be dealing with one of her "trusted ponies" being killed while doing his job. So Daybreaker gets more leverage by going "See what happens when you are restricted by morals and kindness? Ponies DIE because you're not strong enough to protect them but I can do what you can't, I can save them if you only set me free."

 

[spiderhellian]

Agreed! On, well, pretty much every count.

But a question!
Do you want to kill our only potential contact in Eclipse? We don't know who else is there. How to find them. How far they are.

Kill the canary, and you won't know how bad it gets.

Click to shrink...

Hey, someone will keep up the Candle Dust deliveries

Okay, very morbid humour aside… I took the update as showing we don't really have that sort of relationship?

He's not going to come to us with concerns. He's not going to falter and explore those fears. He's a scientist, and he has nightmares every night, and if the Wolf isn't going to stop him I can't see anything afterwards pushing him to come to us.

 

[BritBiscuit]

For the ultimatum I know it says that the conversation will appear to him to be a dream, but considering the ammount of stock he and Eclipse likely puts into the importance and dangers of Dreams, what are the chances that he might put his interaction with us in his notes. Surely as scientists they all have dream journals and whenever something spooky occurs in a dream they'd write it down. So I feel like if we do give the ultimatum and then Ash gets him then that might leave some evidence. Only a possibility though, I know that OurLadyofWires doesn't do trap options but I'm just not sure wether this counts as just a regular consequence with the knowledge and speckulation we have.

[X] Open it.
[X] You gave him nothing.

Normally i'd vote to give him tips because I like the scenes in this where Velvet plays the role of a mysterious teacher doling out wisdom, but not only does this give help to the organisation discovering Lores for Celestia, it also gives advice to another rival for the only true prize of GLORY. My final reason for voting nothing is that I kinda want to see Velvets inner monologue of her realising that much like how Baldomare refused to give knowledge of the Mansus' perils so too is she.

Final thoughts, good chapter.

 

[Nevermort]

I am sure we will get introduced to a new head of department in short order. But they will lose plenty of progress in the meantime.

[X] You gave him an ultimatum.

 

[Solace2117]

[X] You gave him a warning.
[X] Open it.

We already have a path to make Reproach "loyal"(as in not gonna tell Celestia Velvet is shady) by having all of the Bureau respect us, bringing Selene and maybe also getting Cadance to stand on our side while that happens. Of course having him be personally loyal would be nice but I don't think we can afford it at the moment so "loyal" is better than nothing.

Click to shrink...

I don't have a problem with the fact what we picked, but I disagree that we don't have time to focus an action on Reproach. Considering the Bureau actions are separate from regular turn AP I think it's definitely worth using the Bureau social on him next turn considering all we've done to secure the overall loyalty. He's the one loose end and getting him personally loyal ties up the one loose end and considering his competency could be very useful.

 

[Arrkhon]

[X] Open it.
[X] You gave him nothing.
Honestly people, do you really want to test your luck with someone in a Lantern focused group and close to alicorn mainlining Lantern?
Also couldn't we just visit our dear son if we want a quick rundown of how they are doing in Mansus? They all have to go through him after all

 

[Bakkasama]

[X] You gave him your blessings
[X] Banish it.

Ok, the Wolves suck I mean they have one job and they couldn't even do that right.

Time to start passing out blessings to the Celestial faithful.

Click to shrink...

I don't think that is a good idea until Celestia is normal again.

[X] You gave him a warning.

[X] You gave him an ultimatum.


[X] Open it.

 

[ses]

But he doesn't have Moth. He isn't... Trained in hiding things like Velvet. Simply seeing him. Knowing he is there. What he is exploring, how far it went... That's useful in my eyes. That is what I view a contact as. Someone who, by knowing them, you learn something.

Click to shrink...

We literally JUST failed abjectly at getting anything useful out of him other than the barest minimum "he's climbing the mansus" which was already extremely obvious and Velvet herself has already talked about how someday they might run into each other and see Brands.

Midday is completely worthless as an information source. We just tried to use him as an info source and failed, and further attempts will cost AP we're not going to spend and also run into failure. And we're not killing him either, just setting Ash on him to slow his climb. He's not going to die unless we get superbly lucky.

 

[Sveta08]

He's not going to come to us with concerns. He's not going to falter and explore those fears. He's a scientist, and he has nightmares every night, and if the Wolf isn't going to stop him I can't see anything afterwards pushing him to come to us.

Click to shrink...

Yes, he isn't going to come with concerns to us. That's not what I'm saying, or meaning. He's an in. A bad one to be sure, but he's the one we have. The only measure we have to how far they are rising at the Manus aside from if Celestia does the world's most terrifying Peek-A-Boo.

We literally JUST failed abjectly at getting anything useful out of him other than the barest minimum "he's climbing the mansus" which was already extremely obvious and Velvet herself has already talked about how someday they might run into each other and see Brands

Click to shrink...

We, or at least I, wasn't trying to get anything else from that? Anything more would be great, but unlikely. And just because it was obvious to us, doesn't mean Velvet knew, or was focused on it. Removing him... Gegh, it's killing a lieutenant in a rival cult. A problem but it recovers. I'd rather warn and see how we can find out more, to head the lot of it off at once. Because..

Well, going to Ash and giving him one name is a waste of an action.
Going to him with the name and cutie mark of everyone in Eclipse is not.

So getting that info is... A priority in my eyes. Celestia can't learn what she's not taught. And unless she herself starts climbing? That's how you actually delay it.

 

[Potdl]

[X] You gave him a warning.
[X] Open it.

 

[spiderhellian]

We, or at least I, wasn't trying to get anything else from that? Anything more would be great, but unlikely. And just because it was obvious to us, doesn't mean Velvet knew, or was focused on it. Removing him... Gegh, it's killing a lieutenant in a rival cult. A problem but it recovers. I'd rather warn and see how we can find out more, to head the lot of it off at once. Because..

Well, going to Ash and giving him one name is a waste of an action.
Going to him with the name and cutie mark of everyone in Eclipse is not.

So getting that info is... A priority in my eyes. Celestia can't learn what she's not taught. And unless she herself starts climbing? That's how you actually delay it.

Click to shrink...

It's a valid PoV, but I find some of this thinking a little too cute by half.

Arguing that for one reason or another, taking a less effective option now will actually be most effective in the long run… it seems like an epicycle that takes a lot of justification. Like our baseline should be that a more effective action will indeed be more effective, and it should take a bit to move off of that. And I don't see enough of a relationship with Eclipse or Midday to really justify that.

I think if we wanted to build that relationship, and try for that fuller subversion, we'd probably need a supportive action. But I don't think that's the path we should go down, because the risks are high and the required effort likely high as well.

 

[Sveta08]

It's a valid PoV, but I find some of this thinking a little too cute by half.

Arguing that for one reason or another, taking a less effective option now will actually be most effective in the long run… it seems like an epicycle that takes a lot of justification. Like our baseline should be that a more effective action will indeed be more effective, and it should take a bit to move off of that. And I don't see enough of a relationship with Eclipse or Midday to really justify that.

I think if we wanted to build that relationship, and try for that fuller subversion, we'd probably need a supportive action. But I don't think that's the path we should go down, because the risks are high and the required effort likely high as well.

Click to shrink...

Fair enough by half again.
This is not something I am going to shout from the heaventops again, as I don't see the difference worthwhile right now. Just was trying to be clear.

Now, back to writing.

 

[LieutenantSpirit]

[X] You gave him a warning.
[X] Open it.

 

[Anjaxis]

[X] You gave him a warning.
[X] Open it.

 

[ArticulateJargon]

Would it be possible to link these two events? Perhaps get midday dew's people on it? Admittedly, It might improve our standing in Eclipse, but it might also get them interested in what else we found, and depending we did find those manuscripts. I don't remember if we burned those or not, but either way it'd draw suspicion. So actually, maybe we don't

 

[Enna's Fractal Wings]

[] You gave him an ultimatum.
"He will think his conversation with you was a dream, but that does not matter to you. The next time he steps upon the ashes will be his last."
[x] Take it back.

 

[Calico J]

[X] You gave him a warning.
[X] Open it.

 

[Void_510]

[X] You gave him an ultimatum.

[X] Open it.

 

[Greymere]

We literally JUST failed abjectly at getting anything useful out of him other than the barest minimum "he's climbing the mansus" which was already extremely obvious and Velvet herself has already talked about how someday they might run into each other and see Brands.

Midday is completely worthless as an information source. We just tried to use him as an info source and failed, and further attempts will cost AP we're not going to spend and also run into failure. And we're not killing him either, just setting Ash on him to slow his climb. He's not going to die unless we get superbly lucky.

Click to shrink...

Even if he did die, would that even matter? This isn't a case of Midday Dew alone exploring the Mansus. It's an entire team of people. Cutting off the head only works if the rest of the body will actually stop moving once it's gone.

Also y'know, there are likely to be Consequences to one of the ponies handpicked by a very unstable sun goddess to prove to her that ponies can, in fact, handle themselves without her suddenly dying.

 

[Nevermort]

Even if he did die, would that even matter? This isn't a case of Midday Dew alone exploring the Mansus. It's an entire team of people. Cutting off the head only works if the rest of the body will actually stop moving once it's gone.

Also y'know, there are likely to be Consequences to one of the ponies handpicked by a very unstable sun goddess to prove to her that ponies can, in fact, handle themselves without her suddenly dying.

Click to shrink...

Maybe Celestia will find Ash and they will have epic match between themselves. I don't see major downsides there.

 

[ses]

Ok, doing simulations, with some fuzziness I think it's about a:

10% chance of death
10% chance of 2 wounds
20% chance of 1 wound
60% chance of total victory

And that's without Wrong Keys. I assume Velvet will start blasting once she takes a wound or two. so 60% chance of flawless victory and some mix of 1 or 2 wounds for the rest with a 2%ish chance for death-by-2-wounds-in-a-round-via-crits.

Scary, but this is 400 bits worth of reputation by revealed preference in the spread between +rep and -rep from opening to banishing. Well worth the risk.

 

[spiderhellian]

Man, I'm impressed you simulated it, I pay attention to numbers and I don't have a clue how multi combatant combat works!