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Pax's Alternate History Snippet repository.

The Kwantung army of Japan was having disciplinary issues by 1900. As we'll touch on, Japan had a policy of shipping politically inconvenient officers to Korea (going back to the 1870s), in fact IJA policy was to segregate cliques away from one another largely because they were continuation of region loyalities. and what I mean by that is during the Meiji period you had the beginning of the army's transition from the Samurai elite but you still had strong provincial loyalties but as political parties emerge in the 1890s these regional loyalities are gradually sidelined and eclipsed by the 1910s by different factions within the IJA (and as factions fall from grace their officers are forced into retirement).

So what happens is that Tokyo already has limitted control over the Kwantung Army HQ in northern China, and that is really what sparks the second sino japanese war. The Japanese protectorate in Siberia that forms up in the twenties and thirties will be an international point of contention but its under an entirely different Army command from the Kwantung Garrison in north china and that relationship will have to be expanded upon (The Kwantung Army HQ by 1925 had become very opposed to Sun Yat-sen, he was supported he was hosted in Japan previously by rival factions anyway which probably didn't make him very popular, but he was / had espoused pro bolshevik positions and Chiang (regardless of his later positions) likewise had espoused positions that made the Kwantung generals nervous, now IGHQ in Tokyo had told them more than once to stay out of things in the south, they were told in no uncertain terms do not cause an incident. [KwHQ being a dumping ground for young officer malcontents already had a reputation]

As Roosevelt, to be entirely honest he already sufficent planning to provoke Japan into war as in the apparent plan was to allow Japanese attacks against US naval vessels in the western pacific ala a repeat of the Panay incident (along with others) and use that as justification for further responses against Japan. Roosevelt would have worked towards getting a war if he had wanted one, it would have just required more time. The plan was to basically bait the Japanese into attacking old outdated US ships engaging in freedom of navigation excercises and then call the IJA pirates . Roosevelt did not take seriously the idea that Japan would actually attack Pearl any attack against US territorial assets were assumed to be aimed at the Phillipines due to the logistics involved.

So yes in this timeline China will remain divided until after the second world war largely because its at that point where most of the potential external threats are removed or otherwise neutralized, and the one that isn't the Soviet Union doesn't have the force projection in Asia of the OTL (for reasons that will show up in the following Arc).

Yes,Japan have their problems with officers - but here they should send them on soviet border.No need to keep troublemakers on China border.

About Pearl - it seems,that FDR knew,and do not cared.Here,old,but good book about it:
https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct...p/0743201299&usg=AOvVaw0X2dVNsiT_CxGmE_qEnZAQ

Or,to precise - cared,becouse wanted war which american public supported.
 
Yes,Japan have their problems with officers - but here they should send them on soviet border.No need to keep troublemakers on China border.

About Pearl - it seems,that FDR knew,and do not cared.Here,old,but good book about it:
https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=2ahUKEwjniIWftIf_AhVUkMMKHXV8AD0QFnoECA8QAQ&url=https://www.amazon.com/Day-Deceit-Truth-About-Harbor/dp/0743201299&usg=AOvVaw0X2dVNsiT_CxGmE_qEnZAQ

Or,to precise - cared,becouse wanted war which american public supported.
[The State Department and the War Department and the Navy all agreed War was coming.]

We can pretty conclusively say Roosevelt had very little foreknowledge of the specifics of the attack, in part because the Navy kept telling him they were sure that if the Japanese were going to attack it was going to be the Phillipines.


That was the Navy's own biases showing but the IJN carrier force was assumed by the Navy to still be in home waters and if they were sailing anywhere for an attack on the US it was to strike the Philippines (which was what the USN had wargamed out, leaving aside that they didn't expect the Army to drop the ball, but left hand talking to the right hand) made more sense given the presumed effects of the oil embargo (take the Philippines secure the D.I.E.). Roosevelt had a very high opinion of what we was told by the Navy so I think he believed them when they told him that Japan couldn't feasibly attack Pearl

Because of course we know in Hindsight yes there were warning signs but the Navy, including the bureau of aeronautics had repeatedly said that Carriers were not ready yet to carry that kind of attack out, especially with what they estimated Japanese equipment to be at. Those assessments were wrong but in 41 the USN bureaus had repeatedly doubled down on those assessments. Now in the aftermath, King has to come in and do some serious house cleaning to make up for lack of US readiness, and that involves doing things that Admiral King doesn't like.

So I look at it like this

Roosevelt was willing to roll the dice to get the US public in the war, but he assumed he was managing those risks by being in a position where the Japanese would issue a provocation similar to what they had been doing rather than well a repeat of the Russo-Japanese war's opening.
 
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[The State Department and the War Department and the Navy all agreed War was coming.]

We can pretty conclusively say Roosevelt had very little foreknowledge of the specifics of the attack, in part because the Navy kept telling him they were sure that if the Japanese were going to attack it was going to be the Phillipines.


That was the Navy's own biases showing but the IJN carrier force was assumed by the Navy to still be in home waters and if they were sailing anywhere for an attack on the US it was to strike the Philippines (which was what the USN had wargamed out, leaving aside that they didn't expect the Army to drop the ball, but left hand talking to the right hand) made more sense given the presumed effects of the oil embargo (take the Philippines secure the D.I.E.). Roosevelt had a very high opinion of what we was told by the Navy so I think he believed them when they told him that Japan couldn't feasibly attack Pearl

Because of course we know in Hindsight yes there were warning signs but the Navy, including the bureau of aeronautics had repeatedly said that Carriers were not ready yet to carry that kind of attack out, especially with what they estimated Japanese equipment to be at. Those assessments were wrong but in 41 the USN bureaus had repeatedly doubled down on those assessments. Now in the aftermath, King has to come in and do some serious house cleaning to make up for lack of US readiness, and that involves doing things that Admiral King doesn't like.

So I look at it like this

Roosevelt was willing to roll the dice to get the US public in the war, but he assumed he was managing those risks by being in a position where the Japanese would issue a provocation similar to what they had been doing rather than well a repeat of the Russo-Japanese war's opening.

You forget,that Pacyfic Fleet commander relocated it from Hawaii to America,and FDR need to dismiss him to thake it to Hawaii again in 1940.
So,they knew.
Strange,that Republicans do not used it against him.
 
You forget,that Pacyfic Fleet commander relocated it from Hawaii to America,and FDR need to dismiss him to thake it to Hawaii again in 1940.
So,they knew.
Strange,that Republicans do not used it against him.
Not really the Navy's intention with having the fleet at Pearl was to have them to respond to the Japan, whom they assumed in 41 would attack the Phillipines, the USN assumed because they had the intercepts that war was coming an attack was going to be launched at the Phillipines [and really hindsight being what it was, in ten years the State Department would be able to independently of the DoD being able to confirm that major surface combatants, i.e. the Japanese Carrier Force were not in home waters] because the working assumption was that the Carrier group was in home waters (it wasn't they had already sailed).

FDR knew an attack was coming (Thats not in dispute.), and that if it wasn't coming he was planning to bait Japan into a provocation with older navy vessels, but all his naval people told him it would be the Phillipines, it is not ten years down the road where post NSC 68 where the intelligence apparatus exists to tell the president something outside of the Navy's echo chamber. Post Pearl, post Indian Ocean every one immediately cottons on Aircraft Carriers are proven thing, but pre Pearl the Navy's estimation of Japanese aircraft was much much less capable than what they were in reality. They further assumed that there was much greater Japanese German cooperation than there actually was which meant that they assumed based on Chinese air battles that there was less to worry about because naval aviation in the veing of what japan supposedly had (confirmation bias) from the period of really 33-41 was that Japanese aircraft couldnt' possibly be high spec

It is a great blunder in defense planning because the naval community leadership had turned into an echo chamber which consistently shouted down attempts to highlight faults in the US defenses such that when the telegrams started coming in Naval High Command outright rejected a message that stated pearl had been attacked insisting 'They must mean the Phillipines' (There is an actual JAG report of this)

This is one of the reasons where you get the US intelligence community out of the post ww2 years as part of a 'full court press' agency directive through the National Security Council, the war completely revamps the US Intelligence and Security apparatus that it remains after the war ends as opposed to going away as it did in ww1. So when people look back there is a confusion of 'how the fuck did you idiots miss this? Why did you continue to miss what is in hindsight blatantly obvious' and post war FDR does get raked over the coals for not being prepared enough [and I do agree he does deserve some flak for that, but the reason the Republicans don't is arguably even by this point there is a pro Asia First front in the republican dominated MidWest, that will assert itself more heavily in the post war years particularly in the early cold war so thats why I think the Republicans didn't do more to tear FDR a new asshole over his failings.)

And speaking of the early cold war I may put up a brief outline it'll be in spoilers, probably several spoiler tabs of a preview of ~46 (maybe 43) to ~60s of what to look forward to... possibly with commentary on the destroyermen timeline split thing down the road I will at somepoint probably still do the destroyermen thing its just gonna be awhile. The goal is to get through the end of ww1 and thus this arc (so to 1919) probably by this fall and start the next one so if I address the cold war it'll need to be in a spoiler
 
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Not really the Navy's intention with having the fleet at Pearl was to have them to respond to the Japan, whom they assumed in 41 would attack the Phillipines, the USN assumed because they had the intercepts that war was coming an attack was going to be launched at the Phillipines [and really hindsight being what it was, in ten years the State Department would be able to independently of the DoD being able to confirm that major surface combatants, i.e. the Japanese Carrier Force were not in home waters] because the working assumption was that the Carrier group was in home waters (it wasn't they had already sailed).

FDR knew an attack was coming (Thats not in dispute.), and that if it wasn't coming he was planning to bait Japan into a provocation with older navy vessels, but all his naval people told him it would be the Phillipines, it is not ten years down the road where post NSC 68 where the intelligence apparatus exists to tell the president something outside of the Navy's echo chamber. Post Pearl, post Indian Ocean every one immediately cottons on Aircraft Carriers are proven thing, but pre Pearl the Navy's estimation of Japanese aircraft was much much less capable than what they were in reality. They further assumed that there was much greater Japanese German cooperation than there actually was which meant that they assumed based on Chinese air battles that there was less to worry about because naval aviation in the veing of what japan supposedly had (confirmation bias) from the period of really 33-41 was that Japanese aircraft couldnt' possibly be high spec

It is a great blunder in defense planning because the naval community leadership had turned into an echo chamber which consistently shouted down attempts to highlight faults in the US defenses such that when the telegrams started coming in Naval High Command outright rejected a message that stated pearl had been attacked insisting 'They must mean the Phillipines' (There is an actual JAG report of this)

This is one of the reasons where you get the US intelligence community out of the post ww2 years as part of a 'full court press' agency directive through the National Security Council, the war completely revamps the US Intelligence and Security apparatus that it remains after the war ends as opposed to going away as it did in ww1. So when people look back there is a confusion of 'how the fuck did you idiots miss this? Why did you continue to miss what is in hindsight blatantly obvious' and post war FDR does get raked over the coals for not being prepared enough [and I do agree he does deserve some flak for that, but the reason the Republicans don't is arguably even by this point there is a pro Asia First front in the republican dominated MidWest, that will assert itself more heavily in the post war years particularly in the early cold war so thats why I think the Republicans didn't do more to tear FDR a new asshole over his failings.)

And speaking of the early cold war I may put up a brief outline it'll be in spoilers, probably several spoiler tabs of a preview of ~46 (maybe 43) to ~60s of what to look forward to... possibly with commentary on the destroyermen timeline split thing down the road I will at somepoint probably still do the destroyermen thing its just gonna be awhile. The goal is to get through the end of ww1 and thus this arc (so to 1919) probably by this fall and start the next one so if I address the cold war it'll need to be in a spoiler

Then why FDR fired Pacyfic fleet commander who take it to America and do not agree with coming back to Hawaii? Navy knew that Pearl could be attacked with carriers,becouse they did it in excersises using their own carriers.

Destroyerman - author is good,but use protestant propaganda.His catholics are worst version of protestant pamflets,which was arleady bunch of lies.

And 1846 americans treating indian there better then spaniards...i almost die from laugh when i read it.
In RL indians in Caliphornia lived mostly free under spaniards,and get genocided by USA.

All human enemies there are just parodies who deserved to be destroyed.When good noble protestants help everybody.With one sister to cover for that.

If he meet RL spaniards,they would have better technology,and do not even think about human sacifised.Probably arleady take Hawaii from heretics,too.

basically,every catholic state with technology above iron age would develope better then Destroyermen fake spaniards.
Becouse science approach was created in medieval times by cisterian monks - so,all catholic societes with monks would develop it.
 
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Then why FDR fired Pacyfic fleet commander who take it to America and do not agree with coming back to Hawaii? Navy knew that Pearl could be attacked with carriers,becouse they did it in excersises using their own carriers.

Destroyerman - author is good,but use protestant propaganda.His catholics are worst version of protestant pamflets,which was arleady bunch of lies.

And 1846 americans treating indian there better then spaniards...i almost die from laugh when i read it.
In RL indians in Caliphornia lived mostly free under spaniards,and get genocided by USA.

All human enemies there are just parodies who deserved to be destroyed.When good noble protestants help everybody.With one sister to cover for that.

If he meet RL spaniards,they would have better technology,and do not even think about human sacifised.Probably arleady take Hawaii from heretics,too.

basically,every catholic state with technology above iron age would develope better then Destroyermen fake spaniards.
Becouse science approach was created in medieval times by cisterian monks - so,all catholic societes with monks would develop it.
You're talking about Richardson right? The CinC in 1940, because he publicly argued with the POTUS over the redeployment of the fleet to Pearl because he disagreed with the notion of Forward Defense which was the accepted naval policy at the time (again by 1940 the USN had turned into an echo chamber) and everyone knew Richardson was going to get sacked if he kept at it. (Now, after Pearl happens everyone who objected to forward basing comes out of the woodwork but in 1940 that was the accepted line out of the navy, and when King comes in, he makes it clear that the USN is prioritizing the battle of the atlantic (which is a whole other clusterfuck) basically Richardson was fired for political reasons he got mouthy with FDR, FDR didn't like his CINC doing that now after Pearl (King would get away with the same thing, but King both had pearl behind them, and had a reputation for being a belligerent asshole, but also it bears in mind FDR and King were friends so King got away with a lot more shit than Richardson ever did after becoming the US Naval Chief).

Let me put this another way, If today Richardson were an Admiral and he did what he did to Biden or even just the CNO over our basing policy in the pacific he would be relieved for 'lack of confidence' so fucking fast his head would spin.

==
As for destroyermen, his catholics aren't really catholic they're cliche spanish conquistadors which makes sense from a GURPS standpoint but as a novel facet its the demonstration of his weak point in writing human villians and frankly the pseudo anglicans of the East Indian Company aren't any better. So yeah I agree fake spaniards, Anderson could have a better job, I think he pigeonholed himself (have you read the prequel artillerymen? I haven't I was just wondering how it had turned out if he'd improved)
 
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You're talking about Richardson right? The CinC in 1940, because he publicly argued with the POTUS over the redeployment of the fleet to Pearl because he disagreed with the notion of Forward Defense which was the accepted naval policy at the time (again by 1940 the USN had turned into an echo chamber) and everyone knew Richardson was going to get sacked if he kept at it. (Now, after Pearl happens everyone who objected to forward basing comes out of the woodwork but in 1940 that was the accepted line out of the navy, and when King comes in, he makes it clear that the USN is prioritizing the battle of the atlantic (which is a whole other clusterfuck) basically Richardson was fired for political reasons he got mouthy with FDR, FDR didn't like his CINC doing that now after Pearl (King would get away with the same thing, but King both had pearl behind them, and had a reputation for being a belligerent asshole, but also it bears in mind FDR and King were friends so King got away with a lot more shit than Richardson ever did after becoming the US Naval Chief).

Let me put this another way, If today Richardson were an Admiral and he did what he did to Biden or even just the CNO over our basing policy in the pacific he would be relieved for 'lack of confidence' so fucking fast his head would spin.

==
As for destroyermen, his catholics aren't really catholic they're cliche spanish conquistadors which makes sense from a GURPS standpoint but as a novel facet its the demonstration of his weak point in writing human villians and frankly the pseudo anglicans of the East Indian Company aren't any better. So yeah I agree fake spaniards, Anderson could have a better job, I think he pigeonholed himself (have you read the prequel artillerymen? I haven't I was just wondering how it had turned out if he'd improved)

1.Yes,Richardson.He do not agree for coming back to Pearl,becouse he knew that american carriers proved,that it could be attacked.Strange,that Republicans do not use it agaist FDR.
About Biden...let not talk about that failure.

2.Worst.Spanish conquistadors made human sacrifices illegal,and they would do that again in new world.They could be assholes and slavers,but not kill people on altars.
Fake anglicans - they were silly,too.India Company crushed thugs in India and stopped killing widows,but here they are for human sacrifices?

Madness.Apparently author decide to create cartoon villains for unknown reason.Dunno why,real asshole Conquistadors allied with real british assholes would be much better.
 
1.Yes,Richardson.He do not agree for coming back to Pearl,becouse he knew that american carriers proved,that it could be attacked.Strange,that Republicans do not use it agaist FDR.
About Biden...let not talk about that failure.

2.Worst.Spanish conquistadors made human sacrifices illegal,and they would do that again in new world.They could be assholes and slavers,but not kill people on altars.
Fake anglicans - they were silly,too.India Company crushed thugs in India and stopped killing widows,but here they are for human sacrifices?

Madness.Apparently author decide to create cartoon villains for unknown reason.Dunno why,real asshole Conquistadors allied with real british assholes would be much better.
My point was more within US chain of command Richardson was already on the outs, and his going over Stark's head to complain to Roosevelt is the kind of thing that in the US system is ussually a bridge too far. Why did the republicans not bring it up? Hell if I know, at the time Pearl was probably too fresh the attack probably put everyone in the camp of we may not like Roosevelt but we're going to go kill the foreign problem first... [And an example of this in the more modern period, post 9-11 Feinstein and Clinton in FP terms are basically Bush the Younger's friends, Feinstein in the senate basically gives Bush everything he asks for, her policy on drone strikes was YES! Drone strike all the things. in this case its we're all together right now to go make sure that guy (the hostile foreign power) has a really bad day, we'll go back to arguing after they've been set on fire.]

and indeed by the time Japan is defeated and post war people start talking about about it and highlight BurAero failures, & there are other naval failures to speak of, Roosevelt (now no longer around to defend himself) gets flak for his failings, Truman gets a flak, I expect that the reason it was not worse is that Eisenhower wins so decisively in the 52 presidential election that it mollifies most of Roosevelts critics at least for a time. Thats speculation but you see afterwards people from the Roosevelt era state department who get lambasted by congressmen and senators in the republican party, but again by that point FDR is dead, Truman has probably eaten some of the complaints that would have otherwise been thrown at FDR.

As for destroyermen, I have heard that destroyermen may be based off Anderson's table top game (I've heard its from a GURPS TTRPG game, but I've heard the same thing about the Expanse, that could just Convention Legend) and that the reason the villians are cookie cutter evil is that they're from a roleplaying game and aren't intended to be anything more than AH HA!~ We smack the bad guy with the +3 sword of smiting because they are the bad guys. Its one of those we need the b ad guys to be really bad guys so they're cartoonishly evil but yeah IDK thats just what I've heard and thats scuttlebutt no idea if thats true
 
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My point was more within US chain of command Richardson was already on the outs, and his going over Stark's head to complain to Roosevelt is the kind of thing that in the US system is ussually a bridge too far. Why did the republicans not bring it up? Hell if I know, at the time Pearl was probably too fresh the attack probably put everyone in the camp of we may not like Roosevelt but we're going to go kill the foreign problem first... [And an example of this in the more modern period, post 9-11 Feinstein and Clinton in FP terms are basically Bush the Younger's friends, Feinstein in the senate basically gives Bush everything he asks for, her policy on drone strikes was YES! Drone strike all the things. in this case its we're all together right now to go make sure that guy (the hostile foreign power) has a really bad day, we'll go back to arguing after they've been set on fire.]

and indeed by the time Japan is defeated and post war people start talking about about it and highlight BurAero failures, & there are other naval failures to speak of, Roosevelt (now no longer around to defend himself) gets flak for his failings, Truman gets a flak, I expect that the reason it was not worse is that Eisenhower wins so decisively in the 52 presidential election that it mollifies most of Roosevelts critics at least for a time. Thats speculation but you see afterwards people from the Roosevelt era state department who get lambasted by congressmen and senators in the republican party, but again by that point FDR is dead, Truman has probably eaten some of the complaints that would have otherwise been thrown at FDR.

As for destroyermen, I have heard that destroyermen may be based off Anderson's table top game (I've heard its from a GURPS TTRPG game, but I've heard the same thing about the Expanse, that could just Convention Legend) and that the reason the villians are cookie cutter evil is that they're from a roleplaying game and aren't intended to be anything more than AH HA!~ We smack the bad guy with the +3 sword of smiting because they are the bad guys. Its one of those we need the b ad guys to be really bad guys so they're cartoonishly evil but yeah IDK thats just what I've heard and thats scuttlebutt no idea if thats true

1.Then Republicans should use it in 1944 elections,when victory was sure.And strange why Richardson do not go to press and said "See,i told you so"
To be honest,it was his duty - becouse FDR mistake killede americans in Pearl.
In situation when everybody knew,that carriers could do that.

2.If that is reason,that it is really sad.Could you change it,and made spaniards and brits just normal assholes instead of cartoon villains?

P.S Worst case i knew is "Akage ga kill",at least mangs.We have cartoon villains there who live to rape and torture innocents,and cartoon heroes who fought them for noble Revolution.
And,becouse author do not wanted finish his story too soon,he must created 4 groups of evil super warriors to fight noble heroes,becouse one died each few chapters.

But,at least they were aware that something is wrong with that,so they kill from time to time main heroes,too,and create new ones from thinn air.

But,if you want to see worst story ever made,watch manga.
 
1.Then Republicans should use it in 1944 elections,when victory was sure.And strange why Richardson do not go to press and said "See,i told you so"
To be honest,it was his duty - becouse FDR mistake killede americans in Pearl.
In situation when everybody knew,that carriers could do that.

2.If that is reason,that it is really sad.Could you change it,and made spaniards and brits just normal assholes instead of cartoon villains?

P.S Worst case i knew is "Akage ga kill",at least mangs.We have cartoon villains there who live to rape and torture innocents,and cartoon heroes who fought them for noble Revolution.
And,becouse author do not wanted finish his story too soon,he must created 4 groups of evil super warriors to fight noble heroes,becouse one died each few chapters.

But,at least they were aware that something is wrong with that,so they kill from time to time main heroes,too,and create new ones from thinn air.

But,if you want to see worst story ever made,watch manga.
On destroyermen? For sure Like I like the book series, but in fictional terms, I can't just write two dimensional mustache twirling villians (because if that were the case, and they don't have magic they probably should have devolved into open civilian long before the americans show up) same with the East india company, that would have to be something that changes.

I hear ya, Akame ga Kill just never jived with me, I gave it a shot years ago and was like 'not my cup of tea'.
 
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On destroyermen? For sure Like I like the book series, but in fictional terms, I can't just write two dimensional mustache twirling villians (because if that were the case, and they don't have magic they probably should have devolved into open civilian long before the americans show up) same with the East india company, that would have to be something that changes.

I hear ya, Akame ga Kill just never jived with me, I gave it a shot years ago and was like 'not my cup of tea'.
I think,that something like real noble cabals ruling their society with iron fist ,but without needled cruelty.Sometching like real Venetia,maybe.Elites there ruled with little bloodsheed for at least 600 years,keeping good Navy and Army for more times.

Akame ga kill - i still sometimes come back to it,to see how worst story even made look like.Truly,author of that shit deserved some kind of anti award !
 
January 1918
January 1918
Xian was a different sort of noisy. He could hear the maids fussing over Augustus... on the plus side the boy wasn't old enough that he'd be able to remember being an only child... on the other it was abundantly clear the little tyrant wasn't happy. As his father's eldest son Allen had had time to be used to it, the elder Forrest had been lucky to survive childhood. Augustus would grow up used to having brothers, Allen decided.

He then turned back to the papers. Development depended on coordination. That was why the railroad had expanded into related industries. That the steel industry benefited from concrete wasn't a surprise or a shock it was a fact of life. Reinsch didn't have to like it, nor did he really need to then go trying to make it anything other than what it was. He wondered how Powell was doing, Powell would need local iron supplies to fuel the railway's growth, the conditions at market were different than they had been in 1909.

Xian needed better urban planning, the city was growing, and it needed better public utilities. Once upon a time the city had been 'larger' geographically the map showed that, for a city with thousands of years of history they were going to have to plan better. More public schools, more education, which would in theory mean more technicians and office workers, and men who spent their pay checks on industrial goods.

He tapped the pen digging the tip into the newsprint rather than the report. The paper didn't tell him anything he didn't already know from other sources, it just told him what people were reading. When the war ended there would be a shock, all those firms selling to governments would be used to it and prices being high... and European firms would want to go back to the way things had been... which meant France... and probably England too even though he hadn't said as much to Percy ... would start talking about tariffs. He'd have to plan for that, they all would. The cadre accepted that, which meant looking at trying to grow the internal market now as a future substitute, and also importing whatever developments had let the Germans keep up this long fighting the majority of the world's economic productivity either directly or indirectly.

... and of course if their was local demand for goods and burgeoning population to consume them then they wouldn't have to lay off people, that was a plus. Coal mining would need to expand. They needed coal for other industrial processes but especially for a voracious demand for electricity as the city's population got used to electric lights. This year's new year, the festival of the Horse, would have a large demand for electric lights. It was a good that they couldn't import, hadn't been able to import for really almost three years now. First because European suppliers had evaporated earlier still, then because the US's production increasing moved to answer European demand after, and with higher demand and high prices paid it became cheaper to increase production locally.

In literature the vernacular used coopted terms normally assigned to family councils in order to organize expansion. By promulgating internal regulations it created an internal logical framework that could be obeyed ... but that was internal... business law was going to have to be generalized to form a corporate law that provided a framework for other firms to work... but also in order to answer the rather loathsome question of public finance... taxation. The government side of things would need money to fund the army, the police, the courts, the schools, and hospitals.

It bore in mind though that the Qing had largely done the heavily lifting of eliminating the power and legal influence of the Juren as a social literati and elite. The privileges of the old office holders who had passed the eight legged exam had long since stopped having the pool being refilled by new graduates, even before the Xinhai revolt had broken out which had insured the closure of the Hanlin academy. While Jinshi holders were still around they were no longer critically important, and the driving pressure in the public view was to address the bandit problem not necessarily the issues of insuring that cost effective domestic goods could substitute for imports.

The papers wanted to talk about the mess in Hupeh, and the failings of yet another Beiyang advance south despite the 'war faction's' success in largely rallying the Beiyang commanders to it. A reality on that consensus meant that rather than disengaging Szechwan was in fact getting more rowdy, and the fliers were getting more aggressive.

He penned a quick continuation to his still in progress response to Reinsch's letter disputing that the purchasers of goods were harmed by the operation of vertically operating firms before dropping it in the top drawer of the desk for later was the next round of papers came in. Mortars were essential to the newly raised 2nd​ division, but there were increasing numbers of requests from the original three rifle regiments and their seasons troops for Lewis guns, both the original and the lighter model of 1916, as well as other rifles and accoutrements of war. There were requested changes to uniforms and boots, and belts reflective of real service requirements.

It was the sort of thing he liked to read. This was no longer academic, nor was it about equipping a few thousand volunteers. 3rd​ Division was now an inevitability, and there was already chatter among the ranks of a fourth and fifth divisions to address the broad mountainous frontier with 'the verminious southern bandits' a turn of phrase that was being pulled from the local papers.

Speaking of domestic reporting there was government business. The civilian side. It might have been noticed before now, but it was only now being pushed up as medical care in Xian proper that birth registries started recording names. Xian meant Western Peace... which admittedly Allen found rather amusing. Of course Jun was pretty quick to point out this change in the city's name had been merely an attempt by the self aggrandizing Ming to give Face to their new capital 'in the north'. Leaving that aside Shensi also referred to the west.

Xian the other Xian meant immortal, which Jun found amusing.


He paged through another page as the door closed. The new year meant they were approaching talks with the British about steel production, which dredged up discussions previously buried. "I don't think Reinsch believes us."

"If we made what he thought we made we'd already have inked that deal with Ford." Dawes snapped impatiently, though they were rapidly approaching where that was on the books. Instead of turning to look at a new steel mill the capital that had been considered for that institution would be the site of Xian's Ford plant. The first of its kind in China, and the beginning of mass production assembly line production of trucks. "But whether or not he believes it ...."

No it could be a problem.

Part of it was Reinsch wasn't career state department. He had little experience with the war department either... and fundamentally Reinsch was an idealist, not a realist. So on top of questions about whether or not would the British renew, and if so would they renew for another year in April or just for six months, there were the questions of if they cut back on demand due to access to Pittsburgh that Japan would purchase what they could... which would annoy John Jordan who was already grouchy over Nishihara's presence... especially given part of the reason Japan was interested in expanding their purchases was because the steel they produced passed British standards of inspection, so it would meet the industrial needs of that Japan used which were themselves based on British standards.

Still couldn't do anything for them about armor plate, but there was no helping that. Japan would have a bottleneck there... it couldn't be helped. He knew there was a public fundraising for a new BattleShip called the Nagato, she'd been lain down a few months earlier, and her sister ship Mutsu was due to start this summer. The Japanese Navy attache at New Years had talked longingly about expanding their aid to their British allies in the Mediterranean, but he doubted Nagato would ever see a ship of the Kaiser's fleet...

"We'll have a problem if some muckraking peckerwood actually thinks we make a million for each haul of iron," Bill grunted, he wrapped the desk to ward it off, "Did you see that cable of him sticking off to the station chief in Columbia?"

He had actually. A courier from civil affairs had actually sent him a copy before their own people had transmitted it over. "I saw it," And a million dollars was a lot of money. He hadn't actually pulled the Latin America Division's broadsheet, he could have asked for it from State, but he had no reason to doubt Reinsch that a million dollars was one seventh of annual investment in the country... "I saw the response to it."

Dawes snorted, "Yeah, well its about time someone told the professor to mind his own business, the undersecretary might get some hell from Washington, Reinsch being friends with the president." It was past time though, Reinsch had been having these sorts of 'moral lectures' to his state department colleagues for a few years now... he'd lectured the previous US ambassador to Japan about his ties to Pittsburgh's wealthy ... and from the sound of it didn't like the associations of the man's replacement much either... and well... that was going to be something to think about too, "Him sticking his nose about what goes on in Latin America is a problem, he can't do anything about it, but the Virginian, and that Yankee from New York."

"Phillip is going to have to learn to deal with it." He had wanted to jump in the water, if it was cold he shouldn't be surprised... but, "I wouldn't worry about it though."
--
Homophones, what different words sounded alike and could have different meanings played a varied role. Poetry came to mind, but there were other applications. It was more than simply conveying a message though.

People needed to be able to read sure, but they really needed stuff written to them the way they talked. The newspapers that they published, or provided direct support to did not publish their columns in the high and inflated stylized memorandums of the old dynasty's court language, but a simplified language of how people actually talked day to day

Though it hadn't happened until after Yuan Shikai had passed away the text books both for children and also like the infantry primers had followed this trend. Now it moved to popular literature with books being published in vernacular, or at least vernacular northern, Chinese and focused on stories of imminently human people. Rather than the cardboard figures of virtuous paragons and bloodsucking fiends the emphasis were on every men living in relatable flawed, and changing societies. That wasn't to say that stereotypes were absent, that stock characters didn't make appearances.

A novelization for young men apart of the local boy scouts, and the tradition of scouting lionized Charles Gordon. It simultaneously portrayed the Taiping rebels as rapacious southern bandits stripping the country side like locusts... and perhaps he might have been reading a bit too much into it, but Allen suspected that the writer....

... who despite the pseudonym used, was probably an officer of the RPF or 1st​ Regiment during the the White Wolf rebellion and had intentionally adapted the conflict against Bai Lang as the basis for his novelization of events. It certainly emphasized scouting skills and values, but there were anachronisms in the book itself.

It was a very popular novel all the same competing with the much more realistic portrayal of middle of the road everymen with real flaws who struggled on a daily basis.

These were the sorts of things that made into the day's briefing, though they weren't daily updates... but with first of the year increasingly behind them and 1918 underway there were more things to contend with. There would probably be some complaints ... from both rigorous Confucians and the missionaries about moral ambiguities and lack of heroic solutions... but at least he had some forewarning about that potential problem.

Cullen snorted trying to contain his laughter as he and and several other black uniformed officers of the gendarmes laughed at a recently published political satirical comic that lampooned everyone involved in the first opium war. It was a thinly veiled anti-war comic that portrayed both sides and all major figures as high handed arrogant buffoons...

Its layout strongly suggested the comic had probably been written or illustrated or both by a western educated southerner. It portrayed Palmerston, Lin, and the Elliots as all equally embarrassing, with the Minister Elliot being slapped in the face for trying to tell the Admiral of the Nelson he should only use 'old ammunition'. Presumably a diatribe attacking both politicians who wanted to meddle in military affairs for their own reasons, and also militarists who wanted to rush into a conflict just so they could test new weapons (in the case of the comic the lethal iron steamer nemesis when she'd been state of the art).

In short it made fun of everyone, and very likely was meant to to criticize the Beiyang government and the British and probably the 'southern government' since Lin's rivals in the comic looked suspiciously like a spectacled farmers tan doctor rather than a more realistically suave clear skinned mandarin. Someone was clearly unhappy.

"One of the university students?" Cole questioned waving one sheet up.

He thought of the list of people who had publicly swore not to be politic in publishing, "You don't think its one of the professors?"

"I suppose it could be, but its more anti war, and I'm surprised they were radical enough to pick something so recent."

Radical, and recent when they were talking about a dust up that had happened eight decades earlier almost... but maybe that was because they hadn't had any better options, had did you put the war in Europe in historical context. Whatever the case this was another example of modern literary styles using previous historical events, historical events to make commentary on current ones.

There was a sly look he didn't like creep over his childhood friend's expression, "So about the fly boys, we getting near to standing them up or not?"

"Don't look at me like I've got the juice for that Cullen. Not with so much else going on."

"That's funny coming from you brother John. We ought to get it done."

He suspect that if truth be told Cole had already probably started asking around his brigade about men with mechanical aptitude, men who'd be willing to learn to fly if only they could get the planes. The truth was that wasn't a terrible idea, but there had been push back in finances about advancing the filibusters the money so unilaterally, "We don't have the planes, and we're going to need men who want to learn to fly, and who can then teach other men to fly. Just need time for it, lets wait until the spring is here."

"I hold you on that." Cullen raised the mug of tea he was drinking. "As for the votes, tell Dawes we put radios in them they'll be more dangerous than any amount of guns we could put on them at this stage with the engines we have."

They didn't need to tell Dawes that. A plane with a radio to relay for his heavy bastards... Dawes knew that well enough. "Do not bring it up at the next cadre," The needed to wait until spring came.

"I won't say anything," Unless someone else brought it up, but that went unsaid.
--
Notes: So in particular this is going up, because June is almost here. We will not be through this arc before fall, but we are approaching the end of the arc in July 1918 which will have epilogue 1 and epilogue 2 will take place as a transition into the prologue of the next arc in 1919 establishing the end of world war 1 from a de facto western perspective. There are some things in the next few months that I need to expand on, there are some books I need to read, and reread regarding the early Russian civil war but that is the direction we are heading into.

Its funny that destroyermen's cliche villians got brought up, this section on literature, loosely touching on chinese literature was actually written months ago.
 
January 1918
January 1918
The rifle barked, but instead of the need to rack the bolt, which for most men meant coming offline entirely it then barked again, and again. Until the five round magazine was empty. "I'd say he likes it." Cole false whispered in amused candor as the hawk faced major brought the rifle to rest against his hip, pulled the spent magazine out and rocked the new one into place.

Much as with Liu's Rifle design the gun was too expensive to outfit a whole army... much as it loathed him to recognize that financial burdensome weight. Ordinance could hang the rest of their complaints about such innovations as magazine fed self loaders but they were at least correct that the cost of such a rifle in time to construct and machining was a bit much.

Unlike with Liu's rifle, or variations on Brownings 1900 rifle Lewis's new gun operated by a piston that was driven backwards under gas pressure. That might not on its surface as struck anyone as particularly novel given that was how his machine gun operated, but the long stroke of the gas piston was a simplification of the gun. It still could fire in short bursts effectively, but the gas regulator was tuned such that it could operate from closed bolt, and thus be an accurate rifle. It would get hot... but well that was physics.

The major wasn't the first man who'd gotten a go, and they had pointedly kept the gun in single shots, but the rapid fire demonstrated its utility. Assault Phase Rifle. The gun for sweeping in and breaking the enemy's line in twain.

Part of the matter was the reorientation of the gun from how it was on the light machine gun. The gas block, the whole piston had been reoriented to be atop the barrel. "The barrel is too long." Waite muttered, "And don't tell me its cause I'm too damn short, you royal oak son of bitch, I'm closer in height to most of the fellows."

Waite wasn't short, but he might have had a point. They were trending towards shorter barrels, and this wasn't short. "Griswold?"

"He ain't wrong," the other georgian replied to his inquiry, "Its still shorter than the original 98. Lewis has reduced the shroud, and the rate of fire in the design." It wasn't really a shroud any more so much as there were flat fins underneath the hand guard that forced heat to radiate from the barrel... "I do think the pistol grip could be a bit bigger as well, but its as you see accurate enough for government work"

It would never be adopted by the War Department. Ordinance would see to that. Crozier and his clique would strangle it dead... and Isaac probably already knew that regardless of his letter talking about his sending to be tested... which was probably why he'd made sure they'd gotten a copy as well. Maybe history would vindicate him maybe it wouldn't... maybe the bastards in ordinance would chance on something better, maybe congress would take a ballpeen hammer to get them into spec. "What about the other one?"

"The pistol?"

"Its a handful... actually it could probably do with being a bit bigger." Waite grunted an affirmative, "A burst of 45 government works pretty well in Nick's shoot house." Cole nodded, he sounded particularly smug.

"Yeah..." He started to say something

"They ain't ready." Grisworld cut him off, "You can take the guns up against those gangsters when they're ready but I'm still working on them. I will give you no end of hell if you take them up against bandits in the field, what your commandos want be demanded. They can just as well wait."

The Commandos were a nominal battalion sub unit within the Gendarmes, itself as a nominal brigade, that predated the standing up of the Gendarmes as separate force. So inevitably 1st​ Regiment would start running requests up the chain for the new guns to test out as well if they started arriving for use by the specials.

They tittered off about magazines, that brief intransigent acrimony between technocrats fading after a minute. Lewis's action was the most feasible of developments from his gun. The pan magazine needed refinements, but was in many aspects itself a visible dead end already. The action and feed though could be branched into a rifle, and a machine gun, both of which would begin as magazine fed rifles, but the latter would develop into a belt fed feed. The cooling shroud would take decades to make its next improvement, after new machining techniques were developed only then would it be revived for use and that was far far in the future.

--
A year from now... or really... truthfully in about fifteen months they'd look back at all of this with the benefit of hindsight and scowl and curse, and stamp their feet in disgust. The truth was complicated. It wasn't black and white... though thinking it was was part of what with Reinsch and Wilson get every body in so much of a mess.

In January of 1918 though while a lot had happened, and was unfolding... a lot of other things just hadn't happened yet. The ball of yarn, as it were, was still unspooling as it rolled down the hill. Right now though there were a gathering of men around the table. When Europe had gone to war in ... really in July, but in the summer of 1914 the whole balance of world trade had completely gone topsy turvy.

As a result people who did not do economics made all sorts of wild and outlandish assertions, that damned Virginian in particular was easily duped by claims made and taken in by hysterical claims rather than the hard fact of numbers and dollars. With voracious unseen hitherto Europe turned its appetite for all manner of goods to the world at large and their demand drove prices to the point production could not keep up and it threatened to burn out the engines of manufacturing.

This gathering of the Cadre was to be remembered as the Winter Conference 1918 a combination of full members and proxy members to facilitate a full briefing and dispersal of information on the money made by supporting the European demand for goods... mostly the British Empire, but also Japan and how war demand had filled the coffers.

How the war demand had also increased operating expenses, and how that they would need to invest net profits into new industries and expansion. That they were going to make a change over to how they ran business organization. Not only was this to eliminate any potential accusations of war profiteering ... in an ideal scenario anyway... but to make sure that there was understanding of how the system worked.

It was to set the ground work for what would happen next year as well, as they set the stage for putting into words the final version of what would be Shensi's Provincial Constitution to come into effect in January of 1920... what would, though not planned to, become the first year of a era calendar to replace Republican era calendar that had been proclaimed by the southern rebels... that would be proclaimed later by the future lower house established by that constitution.

"These gentlemen are our iron production figures,"

Another group of men were looking at coal.

Rolling stock.

Pig iron.

Bar Steel.

A group of red legs hovered over domestic productivity of machine guns and howitzers.

A hundred men gathered in the room. Tens of thousands of pages of paper were only a faction of four years of brutal war a continent away. Men looked at export of textile goods, or foodstuffs ranging from cows and pigs to melons going to fight scurvy.

Then of course there were the new trends in 'war participation'. The British payments to construct railways in the Russian Central Asia, and the outlines of the Franco-British areas of market interest in Russia... and things there. There were questions of what would happen there... questions that would only be magnified by other events.

Allen nodded to Yan Xishan. "We're glad you could make it." And truth he really had wished that old man Ma had changed his mind... if he would have taken Bill's offer to take a seat at the table... Shansi's Dujun ... military governor... would in 1920 publish his own amended version of the 'Xian style' constitution. It would have slightly different features of course and the provincial constitutions that would follow be adopted by western provinces would follow a general template of provincial organization leading to a national constitution as a response to the final hard breaks of the beiyang clique.

Provincial constitutions would remain in effect, but a new gathering of the constitution would push some members further up from the different gatherings in a few years to a more centralized multi province organization. The nominal allocation for the future Federal Xian style constitution would only truly come into effect in response to other pressures... years into the future after the winter conference... this was just one more step on the road to when in the future eventually China would be reunified. In 1918, in January of 1918 no one was really thinking about that.

Today was about the economics of trade of trade made possible because the Europeans had created a demand for goods unseen ever before. Oh it would have been easy to say 'China is divided', but whole together another matter entirely for anyone to say that it was Shansi, Shensi, or the small province of Kansu or any of the other western commanderies to take it upon themselves to rebind the land. That was Peking's job. Let the Beiyang army with its million man army do that... in fact by 1918 there were enough Shensi natives who were quite fed up with Canton and Yunnan, that Feng's idea to leave the southerners be and let them go their own road was popular.
--
Notes: this is the conclusion of January 1918 pretty obviously given its tone, because from here we move into the brief border skirmishes in Szechwan, where first with the Gansu independent brigades (i.e. 3rd​) move into, before being reinforced by Xian's Regulars, before being joined by the Cadre's more elite 1st​ division troops.

WW1 arguably was the most transformative event of the 20th​ century in terms of economics particularly in terms of long term effects. Effectively overnight the demand for war materiel for the western front added billions of dollars into the trade volume, and for a variety of reasons the war in 1914 completely shattered the greatest degree of economic integration Europe would have until the establishment of the EEC. Not only did war disrupt European productivity it increased demand, and increased costs. This was in both raw material costs and labor as well as other expenses.

The result of this was the post war, rather predictably, the economic contraction that would become the great depression in the long term, and part of that was the response of both business and government, and by business I mean both labor and management's response to the sudden shock of no longer having production guarantees at war time high prices. Business, and government both engaged in protectionism, and protectionism invites protectionism in a tit for tat fashion which prolonged negative economic conditions in trade, as well as drew out the recessions. I digress.

So the result here, what this section deals with is without trying to put especially hard numbers, though we are probably talking hundreds of millions of dollars of trade, likely up from a 1914 value measured in tens of millions of dollars in trade, is the cadre's export business due near universally due British war time material needs. This isn't limitted to just the cadre per se, though Research clique though not on this scale were able to largely buy out their European partners from large capital enterprises (i.e. the belgians out of coal mines in eastern china) with proceeds from the war years in short order.

... and speaking of coal while a long time in the future since much of what has been obliquely touched on here is is coal primarily as being mined, or for heating and cooking (which will touch on in a minute) or as fuel for trains. This is the nineteen teens high sulfurous coal is still in common use its not preferable to high grade production (it requires additional work, this was known scientifically it was confirmable by the 19th​ century, but it was 'known' within the steel maker trade much earlier) it was still commonly in practice.

Naturally one of the factors that will come about in the sixties and seventies as a result will be an earlier recognition of the need for smog control along with other emission control legislation due to both domestic populous and technocratic demand, as well as in response to international conditions in the cold war era. This again goes to my argument that wat WW1 in terms of long term effects is the most transformative events in the 20th​ century.
 
February 1918
February 1918
"You ain't got to go, you know that right?"

"I'm next in the rotation." He replied, even if that was an excuse. The truth was it was easier to take the deployment. The truth was that with an increasing number of officers the cadre was increasingly reallocating its membership to industrial and social duties. Even Cullen had been taking time to step back from the Gendarmes to look at the mines... but on the other hand with people shipping to Guatemala to join Philip and the Cadre having other people step towards industrial work there were fewer members. Bill stint in the rotation took him away from the oil work.. though one could make the well founded argument that anti banditry presence provided legitimacy to his work there. It certainly was shoring up support in the Ma clique as well as in Gansu's populace more broadly to see contribution to law and order. "besides If I don't go it'll look bad to the Ma Clique. Hongkui is expecting me there to show the flag."

"no he's not, he's hoping you don't show up so he can be in charge. If you're there, its first division that's almost sixteen thousand men including the attachment from the staff. Never mind everyone there already"

Waite might have a valid read of it, "Thats not how I take it."

"Well then how the fuck do you read it? What do you think his play is?" There was a pause, "You think this will give him legitimacy because Tidao is publishing that Bai Lang broadsheet? Thats not implausible but, Hongkui doesn't need it. He'd get more out of this expedition if he's the one in charge. Yeah being able to go back, and say," That in the current effor they were reiterating that myth of fighting Bai Lang who had in summer of 1913 some ten thousand men, a number that had at least temporarily swelled to locust like proportions. "Yeah, so what if can go back and say all that..."

"Because in the long term if I go down there the labor corp comes along and thats a better chance of us being able to hold a salient into Szechwan. Think about it Hongkui has made the effort for his bonafides in the anti bandit campaigns into the south. Yes there are still tribes in the tibetan lands and Szechwan that are still fighting indian wars," Why wouldn't they, you didn't stop having a grudge with the next clan over just cause some high and mighty jackass from the capital demands you pay taxes or made any other demands... there were going to be problems. Tibet on a map might be allegedly four or five sub units but really it was more like four or even five times that. With a toe hold in the eastern most of those big counties by the running of the line down to Lhasa.

... and the prescence in Lhasa if the MAK hadn't spun off early might have been the next talk of what to do about... but coming into 1918 and with the spring conference looming Allen was cognizant that the cadre was looking at more than just that. He gestured to the map on the wall, the one that had a rail line that pushed off its borders going north west. "You see that," He asked rhetorically, "Thats us, thats me, and you. The other guys. Its the company as a whole to not just the railroad people."

"Maybe so, but this isn't like Bai Lang where you can cut the head off the snake and watch the body flop around listless. The bandits are not just going to disappear, we go down there, in ten years Gansu and us both will still be posting divisions on our southern border, because Szechwan isn't going to change." He was right of course. Not just about a decade down the road, but in twenty years Szechwan would be as a province divided between the southern government under the KMT nominally capitaled at Nanking but later from what would come to be called Wuhan and then Szechwan's capital of Chunking in the high years of the Sino Japanese war... but they couldn't have imagined that.

At the moment this was a purely a provincial affair. It was Shensi and Gansu 'suppressing', as the word was translated, 'pacifying' bandits who were prone to going over the border.

"Are you going to avoid having to go Tietsin?"

He turned, "Why would I need to do that?"

"I've read the cables from State at least thats ones I've seen."

Allen scoffed, "Yeah, shocker Lenin wins a quarter of the vote, and then imprisons the PSR and the other parties when they wont go along with him. So much for democracy in Russia." It did actually shock him how flabbergasted Wilson seemed to be in Washington about the Bolsheviks seizing power in the face othe congressional assembly but the bigger concern was, "Did you read the British ones, Balfour?"

"Separate peace." Waite replied, it was what the British were most worried about. "Yeah." He said quietly.

--
A couple of three inchers from a battalion battery made themselves known.

He was glad to be here.


It was something to do with his hands, even if it was cold. There was a light touch of snow on the ground... whether it would stick or blow away they didn't know. Hongkui had circled around the border at least crossing three times. He'd jump over and launch a probe, and come back after hitting whatever nests of bandits he could find... and he'd done these punitive raids across the winter.

Per Hongkui the bandits had appealed to higher authority going to complain to bigger county bandits and warlords who were yunanese running dogs. Which was probably true enough. Shi, the most north eastern provincial warlord refused to give battle... for probably the very sensible reason he'd then be prey to an attack to his south.

Zhong on the other hand had decided he could no longer be so embarressed by Ma Hongkui and decided to answer the petitions. His circular was dated the first of January but it hadn't actually reached them until the end of the month.

They'd been cabled about it from Young Carter who hadn't known exactly what to make of it, especially once Hongkui had started circulating his own circulars... Hongkui wanted to roll down in force and not just hit Bazhou but actually occupy it.

That seemed like a really stupid idea, because if they took the city they'd be committing to holding hostile ground in a furious neighboring province that was in its own civil war. Zhong was unlikely to make a deal with Liu to his west but that wasn't entirely out of the realm of possibility... but they also couldn't just allow Zhong the ability to mass forces on their border.

Waite was right. Whatever their reasoning...

That didn't change the fact that they'd shot first. That they were the ones skipping over the border not Zhong Tidao or one of his lieutenants. They could at best make the argument that they were responding to previous incursions or even allege the territorial integrity of Kansu had been violated by bandits associated with Zhong's subordinates... but that was a thin justification given the situation... and yet here they were.

Once this was done they were going to have to make changes to how they planned this. If anything it needed to start now, If Hongkui could secure a foothold in the north of the province he'd have a foothold to launch other incursions, and while that should have been obvious to anyone looking at a map... he wrote it down anyway.

If Hongkui could sustain supply lines into Bazhong then he could manage to theoretically hold the city through outside support and then penetrate into the countryside... but the bandits could continue to go to ground, and be supported by people further south beyond Ma's ability to strike out at. It was in many respects all too similar to the situation of the Phillipines with local strongmen congregating across regions out of necessity, and with all the infighting that often accompanied such alliance making. It made things unpredictable.

"We're on station." Bill remarked with a twang as if the motors of the trucks couldn't be heard rumbling in the difference. The Motorized Rifle Company, provisional had received slight changes from its initial composition, but for fundamental purposees was not that different. They had learned some lessons about how best to use them in a fine, but it was the supporting assets that had changed the most... and having spare parts... that meant people knowing how to work on the automobiles as well.

The machine gun sights were graded out to a, John Allen considered optimistic, three thousand meters. Really at that point it was mostly everyone on that hill over there notices some angry hornets and the general displeasure of the artillery man shooting at them. In reality with the advantage of fighting from a protected turret that artillery man could meaningfully suppress an infantry position in the open or in concealment at closer ranges... and that was the whole damned point.

"How do you feel about this?"

"Well you know, I reckon we were going to fight Zhong sooner or later. There are couple of Lius are gonna be a problem." Especially since one of those was the guy in charge of the little fiefdom to Zhong Tidao's west. "But if you're asking between you, and George? I here cause Waite would wait until they came into Hu's neck of the woods, and then we'd been subject to the same complaints as he threw at Chen. I'm not okay with standing there and taking a punch."

"I just wish I could make George see that."

"He'll get over it." Even if this was likely to last into the spring.
--
Notes: Third update of the week, again by this point the Xian Cadre has replaced the previous provincial government apparatus. Chen Shufan has moved entirely to a federal job, he was in Peking most of the time anyway, and he had relieved his civilian equivalent prior to that. Because of his abscence and because Szechwan was by 1916 already devolving (Yunnan Clique would come in from the south and lay claim to basically the entire province the NPW, how real that control was is debateable) and by the end of that year both Tsai O and Yuan Shikai are dead which fractures both of their political bases.

Thus the modus vivendi of sorts between Gansu, and Shensi as provinces is that it is better to keep the border areas, specifically the Szechwan side of the border policed by their own troops proactively. Its not a great solution but it is historically what the Ma clique did anyway (and in part that was successful because at the beginning they had better troops, both in terms of training and equipment, but they were also better organized. Eventually that strength atrophied, but for other reasons beyond just the border fighting).

I also need to find time to finish Castlevania before I cancel my netflix... and not get bogged down by writing something based on set in or otherwise related to that, but its a good animated show, if a little over the top at times. Along with other stuff... my buddy is talking about running a weird west style DnD campaing which might be a nice distraction, I'm always glad when I don't have to be one Dungeon Master in the group.

Anyway this week was atypical for updates. The plan is to get through this end of the arc, the fighting in Szechwan in the early months of 1918 along with central asia's developments directly contribute to long term organizational changes, and they directly impact the July conclusion of the arc that is set up for in June which is really more or less the end of the regular updates for the arc.
 
So,for now,China would remain mostly as OTL - and only difference would ne one province getting stronger.
About other topics:
1.Literature - England elites used books and newsletters for propaganda at least from 1905,sometimes in funny way/in 1909 tey wrote about danger of german airships/
So,your MC and friends could use it,too.
About chneese literature - i only read few Judge Di novel,good written in my opinion.
Your MC could hire some writer about their version of modern Judge Di supporting them./real one lived in Tang period/

2.Weapons - if they are too long,use bull-up version.If i remember correctly,germans made some AT rifle with it during WW2.
 
February 1918
February 1918
He no longer expressed surprise, as he once had of the plumes of white powder from old guns. He had simply become inured to it. It was horrifying in its own way... that people were still using such primitive weapons against modern forces. That old muzzle loading cannons were attempting to fire on modern forces.

Carter's notes were a bit concerning in themselves. Not that they were about the cannons, he'd basically dismissed those but rather his observations on the enemy organization. He recognized the make up... and didn't like the implication... but it might not bear too much to read into.

So the bandits had adopted Boxer esque organization, that wasn't so out there, the boxers had been an off shoot of an offshoot of a rebellious group called the White Lotus. The secret societies were rife across south china, and it was just as likely that in six months or a year, they would be shooting at bandits who used the same organizational scheme as the Taipings.

It bore in mind that there were still tribal chiefdoms to the south and to the west, so just as much as there were units who adopted the ranks and styles of the French and Germans there were older remnants. There were still groups fighting in the name of the Ming at least in professed sentiment, but that there were rebel groups who claimed to be fighting for a dynasty that was nearly four hundred years dead, so why shouldn't there be people who chanted Boxer slogans, waved boxer banners, and organized as the boxers had. It would have been nice if they didn't use guns and artillery at all, but if that had been the case this Hongkui probably would have tried to take Bazhong all by his lonesome. He still wanted the city though, thought they could use it to project power.

... which if Allen were honest if Ma wanted to be brazen Ma could well have taken the city, but Hongkui didn't wear spectacles to look smart, he knew better ... he knew what it took to keep his cavalry in the field, and that taking the city would take too much

... and in all likelihood he knew that he had rivals within the Ma clique who'd complain if Hongkui's independent brigade decided to take a city and then needed resources to hold it.

What perhaps concerned him more was that the Ma clique increasingly wanted to hold territory. Broadly referred as 'the cousins', even though some ties were purely nominal the Ma clique had a generation that was getting old having to back away from power, and an up and coming generation who had either made their bonafides or were looking to make prove their bones in a fight. Hongkui was first among this young generation, and thus had less to prove.

Clouds of white gunsmoke from black powder rifles obscured the gray haze of the mountain side in the distance. Puffs of ineffective fire from down below.

The noise was then overwhelmed by much larger more modern artillery as Carter's artillery came alive filling the area. He wondered if Ma's horses were deaf yet. The mounted rifles of the brigade were moving around, but going up the mountainside like this would be a mess.

He lifted the field glasses to watch the ponies run. A handful of men... but at least these had modern rifles. "What do you think?"

"I wonder if that's how its going to be."

"How what's going to be?"

"Black Jack took the cavalry down to mexico," and the ponies had danced at Bersheba, where the Australian Light Horse had taken the wells at the end of the previous year. To dim the chatter a pavessi drug forward, lumbering as it came another load of ammunition. The tractor coming to a shuddering stop, its great wheels holding under the break as it was applied. "They're faster than that bastard."

"Maybe so," Allen replied, "But that bastard keeps the divisional artillery well fed," He nodded towards the 15cm HE in the wagon it was towing. "Different jobs though. IF the Kansu Rifles down there are serious about harassing the enemy then the automobile can furnish the supply park."

Carter swung out of the fulton coming up from the direction the tractor. "Are they still shooting round shot at us?" He questioned passing them, and shouting at the red legs. He and Bill shared a look.

"We're eight miles from him, on a ridgeline , and that's black powder shooting up."

"It'll mess up horses though." Carter replied turning back, "I want rounds on that gun." He barked to a crew chief.

Carter's orders to the howitzer crew saw a long barreled, nearly 30 calibre, piece send a 96 pound high explosive charge seven miles and change into an airburst that when it exploded ripped apart the opposing gun crew. A second shell fired detonated slightly left by appearance, from the enemy position, and tore the axle from the gun... before the gunpowder cooked off and even from a sixty power spotting scope was drowned in white smoke.

He stepped away the german glass. "Dawes must be very impressed."

"We'll never hear the end of it." Bill agreed. "That is 1st​ field artillery though, most of that battery was with us at Xian.... and you can bet they were the first ones on this model." He was right of course, half of the 1st​ Field Artillery spent most of its time rotated to the experimental technical section for testing anytime they weren't actually in the field. "You want my guess, Dawes put them here to put the fear of god into the bastards down there."

"That might be," Allen replied, "But you were saying?"

"Just that horses aren't going to cut it but we do need a more maneuverable field force of our own, and Cole and I have been talking about what we need. The Mechanized Rifle platoon is built using stuff we have but once this ford factory is up," Well that would be different. "We need to be able to put a force on site not just first, but a substantial force. They'd be cavalry just not horse soldiers."

Though the quote was often ascribed, Forrest had never in such butchered english actually said 'firstest with the mostest' but the idea was reflected in his directive on cavalry usage.

--
The labor corp had cut a turnpike, rather liberally with dynamite. They'd filled caissons up as well, which wasn't exactly discrete. It had been hard to miss. In fact one would have had to be blind, deaf, dumb and stupid to some how have missed the construction... of course the attack followed on a cold morning with about six inches of snow on the ground from the previous night. Hotchkiss Winchesters with fixed bayonets had no business coming along at the fighting positions... but no one had told the other guys that.

"Fuck, they're doing it." He grunted as another few hundred men in bright jackets fired from their clouds of white smoke advancing up the road towards the positions. "God damn it!" There was a shrill metal note from down below and an officer with a sword waved his men forward. He didn't make it long after before someone up above sent a spitzer through his breast, but the attack was signaled and the press of bodies rushed up the hill.

"Carter, watch your language."

The younger man turned and looked at Bill like he'd grown a second head. "Canister, Now" Carter said snapping to an artillery captain. Allen watched the charge all but distingregate. He didn't miss Carter biting down on his lip either.

Bill flashed a hand sign to him, and in the direction he indicated, here came Ma Hongkui to mop up. The Hui Mounted Rifles detachment were a squadron strong and had the advantage of the corp having cut and leveled the road out with cages to allow a path for trucks... which meant a horse soldier could ride eight or even ten abreast with ease.

The organization of the charging men didn't mean much. If Carter was right they were using the boxer's organization of small units... but on the other hand these men had rifles and bayonets... probably had cartridge boxes. They might not have had modern uniform jackets, but he doubted they'd find talismans intended or hoped to ward off gun fire.

"Did the boxers ever mount an assault against prepared breastworks?"

"They tried to jump seymour on the turnpike, but I don't think they ever tried an assault on a properly fortified military position." The legations didn't count. "I think most of the assaults were the alliance throwing men at the forts, and walls."

"Well these boxers didn't do much better." The mounted rifles opened up with their Mauser carbines from about seventy yards into a handful of men trying to get back to a shattered tree line. Enfilading fire was echoing from another post of fortifications. They had been built, unlike the main line which utilized concrete, as largely wooden earth and sand bag fortifications. They were nothing fancy, trees hewed down notched like you were building a long cabin... and then sticking a machine gun in the windows.

It wasn't much more complicated than that. Rifle Platoons could be stationed on what were basically protected porches shored up by short trenches topped with sandbags. Most of these positions though were filled with 2nd​ Division troops. 1st​ Division was being maneuvered up and had been staged behind the line to actually march on the city of Ba Zhong... before it had started snowing.

It was the only reason they hadn't encircled and launched an attack... though admittedly calling the county township a city was a stretch. "You think Hongkui's impatient?"

"He said this is the largest single mustering of troops in anyone's lifetime."

He rolled his eyes, "Don't be absurd."

Bill nodded, "That's what he said, the Qing had less than two hundred officials in the province... a hundred seventy eight maybe? In a province of fifty odd million. Imagine that."

He suspect either Hongkui was having Bill on, or ... he considered the Qing era Opium suppression campaigns to root out native opium growers to have been so long ago that it was just on paper now... and it bore thinking about that most of the leaders of the province were men their own age... and indeed most of those had studied modern military science in Japan. That could have easily explained the bayonet charge, or French education, or German education... Chengdu had had a military academy even if it had closed a decade ago the local commanders could have attended there.

There was another grouping of hooves as another squadron mustered. Ninety minutes... fighting since just before dawn and who knew how many men had run into the bursting shells to their mortal ends.
--
Notes: As I mentioned Ma Hongkui seems to have started his bandit suppression career as a Kansu commander, this was local work, but it continued, dare we say it 'mission creeped' to such a point that it was eventually a 'federally' recognized command, on the other hand its generally accepted that Peking either wanted to keep him close (Cao Kun probably wanted him close buy, or he wanted to be in Peking in order to get benefits from Cao Kun when he was president, or it was mutual). Anyway we're going to get through some fighting, which I will touch on in a minute, but in March and moving forward we will be touching on political shifts before we approach the conclusion of the arc.

Militarily Sichuan province during the warlord era had a large manpower pool, but it was politically fractured and was regarded as having the worst troops in all of China. (That should say something). Part of that was just lack of equipment but by this point there is starting to be a transition from the early warlords of the province (with the division of the province into large territorial areas) that will continue with new warlords coming to power. This were less educated local leaders (or the scions of local leadership who exercised control through a mix of family ties and controlled several counties usually by controlling an administrative center. i.e. Chonqing through which they were able to collect taxes.
 
According to what i read,both A-H and Russia gave one-schoot blackpowder rifles to second class units,but they never ever was send to fight on front.
 
When did Allen get Mausers? And is it the 98 or something older?
 
According to what i read,both A-H and Russia gave one-schoot blackpowder rifles to second class units,but they never ever was send to fight on front.
Yeah, there was no intention to send those people to fight, but your postal, train, prison guards rear echelon supply guys all still needed guns they didn't have to be good guns but they still needed them.
When did Allen get Mausers? And is it the 98 or something older?
It is the licensed production pre war 98, actual date of license would probably be 1909 by Mauser though they have a renewed liscence through FN from 1915 because FN was selling licenses like hotcakes after they got to England (Belgium being occupied and all that and FN needed money).
 
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Yeah, there was no intention to send those people to fight, but your postal, train, prison guards rear echelon supply guys all still needed guns they didn't have to be good guns but they still needed them.

It is the licensed production pre war 98, actual date of license would probably be 1909 by Mauser though they have a renewed liscence through FN from 1915 because FN was selling licenses like hotcakes after they got to England (Belgium being occupied and all that).
So the Argentina Mauser?
 
So the Argentina Mauser?
Argentina's mauser is in 7.65 this is in 7.92 (what is colloquially called 8mm Mauser). If anything it would probably be closest to the Thai pattern Mauser 98 rifles or the Chinese 1910 Rifle (which here the rest of that order was bought before the war started so they're actually in China rather than sitting obendorf.)


I need to find a picture of a commercial 1907 7.92 rifle that would be the closest to what the guns would like

EDIT: HOpefully this picture shows:
148198ddb26103f388ddde589a027d36.jpg
(Its a little rough condition obviously but general features wise, no stock disk, no langesvissier)
EDIT2: That being said, I will be using Mauser as a shorthand or Gewehr to refer to rifles in general including the Hanyang / comission 88 which is the most common pattern rifle period in China never mind that it is also in 7.92 / 8mm Mauser cartridge.

Besides being both historically accurate for shorthand (much like how ever revolver is a colt, or every semi automatic pistol (that isn't a luger or a Mauser) typically gets called a Browning) it refers to both the action and the Cartridge. This will continue even after Xian moves to a universal short rifle in the 20s and when Xian introduces specialist 8mm Self Loading Rifles as an intermediary. Mauser will largely drop off post World War II when Xian moves to universal service assault rifles which is self loading and intermediary though Mausers will remain in a sniper role for some time after that, and in a machine gun role until superseded by the FN MAG in the early cold war
 
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Argentina's mauser is in 7.65 this is in 7.92 (what is colloquially called 8mm Mauser). If anything it would probably be closest to the Thai pattern Mauser 98 rifles or the Chinese 1910 Rifle (which here the rest of that order was bought before the war started so they're actually in China rather than sitting obendorf.)


I need to find a picture of a commercial 1907 7.92 rifle that would be the closest to what the guns would like

EDIT: HOpefully this picture shows:
148198ddb26103f388ddde589a027d36.jpg
(Its a little rough condition obviously but general features wise, no stock disk, no langesvissier)
EDIT2: That being said, I will be using Mauser as a shorthand or Gewehr to refer to rifles in general including the Hanyang / comission 88 which is the most common pattern rifle period in China never mind that it is also in 7.92 / 8mm Mauser cartridge.

Besides being both historically accurate for shorthand (much like how ever revolver is a colt, or every semi automatic pistol (that isn't a luger or a Mauser) typically gets called a Browning) it refers to both the action and the Cartridge. This will continue even after Xian moves to a universal short rifle in the 20s and when Xian introduces specialist 8mm Self Loading Rifles as an intermediary. Mauser will largely drop off post World War II when Xian moves to universal service assault rifles which is self loading and intermediary though Mausers will remain in a sniper role for some time after that, and in a machine gun role until superseded by the FN MAG in the early cold war

You could buy polish semi automatic rifle before Poland fall.We produced less ten 500,but it was ready to production in 1938.

Here:
https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct...lish-wz-38m/&usg=AOvVaw3PT4Hik_fv17rltPsG5Oll

And,if as a result of China buing it early Poland start mass producing it,we could hold 2 weeks more !
Not that would change anytching....

Well,Japan in that case could copy it,too.It also not change anytching.
 
You could buy polish semi automatic rifle before Poland fall.We produced less ten 500,but it was ready to production in 1938.

Here:
https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=2ahUKEwj5yNyWg6z_AhVbDRAIHRn5C3cQFnoECAoQAQ&url=https://www.forgottenweapons.com/early-semiauto-rifles/polish-wz-38m/&usg=AOvVaw3PT4Hik_fv17rltPsG5Oll

And,if as a result of China buing it early Poland start mass producing it,we could hold 2 weeks more !
Not that would change anytching....

Well,Japan in that case could copy it,too.It also not change anytching.
I mean I don't think you'd be able to produce enough of them realistically if the design is finished in '34 just spinning up the machine tooling for the rifle is going to take 18 months probably, if not longer. Going from batch production to mass production takes ~ three years.

I honestly think this is my opinion that Poland would have been better off with more artillery and machine guns to fight the Germans. Mind, I also think if the French hadn't pushed the Czechs being sold down river that maybe the Germans would have had to actually fight through the Czech defenses and Hitler people would have started paying attention a lot sooner, but that goes to the whole conference having problems and the reason that I lay the blame on France, is that they were a continental land power. England would have had to summon troops from the Empire at large and neither Baldwin's government, certainly not Chamberlains would be willing to do that especially not on France's behalf given there was still sentiment lingering that France had started the whole ball rolling with the occupation immediately post war. Now Baldwin's government did also begin remilitarization of britain which continued through Chamberlin's ministry but the intention was deterrence by building (it was going off Britain's typical naval strategy of political thinking) and as demonstrated by events in 1940 Britain wasn't ready for war yet and it showed, where as by 1940 by not having to fight through the czech border defenses the Wehrmacht had more time to continue to expand to eventual war footing.

In short getting it ready for production by 1938 doesn't really help as more than a speed bump, it is a 7.92mm rifle which is great, but how many are you actually going to have at unit level, in what quantity are all the teething issues going to be worked out.
 
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I mean I don't think you'd be able to produce enough of them realistically if the design is finished in '34 just spinning up the machine tooling for the rifle is going to take 18 months probably, if not longer. Going from batch production to mass production takes ~ three years.

I honestly think this is my opinion that Poland would have been better off with more artillery and machine guns to fight the Germans. Mind, I also think if the French hadn't pushed the Czechs being sold down river that maybe the Germans would have had to actually fight through the Czech defenses and Hitler people would have started paying attention a lot sooner, but that goes to the whole conference having problems and the reason that I lay the blame on France, is that they were a continental land power. England would have had to summon troops from the Empire at large and neither Baldwin's government, certainly not Chamberlains would be willing to do that especially not on France's behalf given there was still sentiment lingering that France had started the whole ball rolling with the occupation immediately post war. Now Baldwin's government did also begin remilitarization of britain which continued through Chamberlin's ministry but the intention was deterrence by building (it was going off Britain's typical naval strategy of political thinking) and as demonstrated by events in 1940 Britain wasn't ready for war yet and it showed, where as by 1940 by not having to fight through the czech border defenses the Wehrmacht had more time to continue to expand to eventual war footing.

In short getting it ready for production by 1938 doesn't really help as more than a speed pump, it is a 7.92mm rifle which is great, but how many are you actually going to have at unit level, in what quantity are all the teething issues going to be worked out.

All true.
We have new prototypes of 75mm field guns and 100mm howitzers,but,becouse it was for few years slowed,it never get mass production.
With the same chasis for both to made production cheaper.

About Czech - England wonted to toss Austria,Czech and Poland under german bus till 1939,becouse they belived,that Hitler would fight soviets for them.

Well,if Hitler was sane,it could actually worked....
 
All true.
We have new prototypes of 75mm field guns and 100mm howitzers,but,becouse it was for few years slowed,it never get mass production.
With the same chasis for both to made production cheaper.

About Czech - England wonted to toss Austria,Czech and Poland under german bus till 1939,becouse they belived,that Hitler would fight soviets for them.

Well,if Hitler was sane,it could actually worked....
True I completely agree and England is not blameless, the reason the academic consensus is typically France is that France was the state after ww1 that kept trying to talk about a security framework (Britain does to but in different context, and in the context of the empire, Britain is not going to spend money on the army, the RN has its budget determined by this is what the treaties say (it doesn't matter that the USN is never going to get that money from Congress, the treaty is what Britain sets how much it will build from) and the RAF gets the rest of the budget pretty much) but France really from 1917 keeps talking about 'we need this security compact, but refuses to spend money on, the French cut conscription requirements, there are purges of the army officer corp, the Navy is a complete clusterfuck (which its the French Navy thats a habitual problem rather than an interwar exclusive problem), there is the fallout of the Franco-Belgian occupation, there is France's repeated attempts to get out of getting out of loans (there is a french default on war loans that France could have paid back but chose not to due to the gold standard) which both of those negatively impact Franco British American relations during the interwar period, it is one of the contributing factors to cash and carry being a thing, but it is also a case of there a combination of Factors that make the French out to be parasitical to the allied war effort as a political entity.

As for the field guns and howitzers yes, if those had been started sooner it would have helped, as would having just more older anti tank guns. the majority of german tanks were Panzer I and IIs that front armor isn't going to do you any good from an HE 47mm at close range yes that gun had problems in trials but after Spain the other problem was no one really expected the armor blitz. Spain was a completely different war. Hindsight is 2020 absolutely we're looking back knowing the capabilities of the Germans, and that their leadership were loony toons, and we look at ww2 going why after ww1 were you people not prepared to face a conventional war? England should have started remilitarization frankly much earlier say around Abysinnia crisis or in response to the manchurian crisis, but then again France should have as well.
 
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True I completely agree and England is not blameless, the reason the academic consensus is typically France is that France was the state after ww1 that kept trying to talk about a security framework (Britain does to but in different context, and in the context of the empire, Britain is not going to spend money on the army, the RN has its budget determined by this is what the treaties say (it doesn't matter that the USN is never going to get that money from Congress, the treaty is what Britain sets how much it will build from) and the RAF gets the rest of the budget pretty much) but France really from 1917 keeps talking about 'we need this security compact, but refuses to spend money on, the French cut conscription requirements, there are purges of the army officer corp, the Navy is a complete clusterfuck (which its the French Navy thats a habitual problem rather than an interwar exclusive problem), there is the fallout of the Franco-Belgian occupation, there is France's repeated attempts to get out of getting out of loans (there is a french default on war loans that France could have paid back but chose not to due to the gold standard) which both of those negatively impact Franco British American relations during the interwar period, it is one of the contributing factors to cash and carry being a thing, but it is also a case of there a combination of Factors that make the French out to be parasitical to the allied war effort as a political entity.

As for the field guns and howitzers yes, if those had been started sooner it would have helped, as would having just more older anti tank guns. the majority of german tanks were Panzer I and IIs that front armor isn't going to do you any good from an HE 47mm at close range yes that gun had problems in trials but after Spain the other problem was no one really expected the armor blitz. Spain was a completely different war. Hindsight is 2020 absolutely we're looking back knowing the capabilities of the Germans, and that their leadership were loony toons, and we look at ww2 going why after ww1 were you people not prepared to face a conventional war? England should have started remilitarization frankly much earlier say around Abysinnia crisis or in response to the manchurian crisis, but then again France should have as well.

Well,in France we had socialists who gutted army becouse they hated it.If Monarchists win their putch in 1934,Hitler would be crushed in 1936,or at least 1938,and there would be no WW2.

About AT guns earlier - we had prototype of 47mm infrantry gun which could also destroy light tanks,but for reasons unknown to me it was never mass produced.
I read theory,that Sanacja/ruling after putch in 1926 in Poland/ simply do not like private polish manufactures/and it was made in private polish factory/ , which is possible - later they made private polish plane factory/Lublin/ bancrupt,so polish state could take over it.

Factory never really stand from that,but it was state,not privately owned.

England - when in 1935 they agreed for German fleet being 35% of british,they betray France - becouse now it was as big as french fleet,and they still need to look for Italians in Med.
In 1938 they urged Czech to surrender,and french to not support them.

And then,in 1939,they start giving Poland green light to fight germans,pledging support which they could not deliver.
 
Since we are on the topic of the beginning of world war 2, which is undoubtedly the elephant in the room we should probably go ahead and address one of the potential butterflies. In January of 1939 Tsingtao is the sight of an incident between the RN and Imperial Japanese Army (specifically the Kwantung Army) and that distinction is important because its the army not the navy that causes the problem and the Navy publicly disavows any involvement.

The Kwantung Army had begun administering customs and excise as part of their occupation of northern China (and occupation that had not been approved of by IGHQ in Tokyo) and in January of 39 the impounded a British Merchantman for failing to pay taxes to Japan (read, didn't pay the Kwantung Army) on Chinese goods being exported. Again the IJN goes "We have nothing to do with this" the IJN allows the far east cruiser squadron to arrive in Tsingtao to investigate, the Excise Commission goes "We're not arresting them" and the future Admiral Ashburn goes over to investigate and then they go to Shanghai, this occurs at the end of Jan 39, its four months after the munich agreement. And b y itself this incident would have been nothing, this shit happens in the first half of the 20th century, it is only really an incident because it comes after a crisis in Europe and because it had the potential to be a spark to a much earlier war.

Now this is not to take away from the Munich Crisis, it does not excuse either England or France or the Germans (as the belligerent party) from their responsibility but I am also going to go out on a limb, and if HMS Birmingham Mutual Kills three Japanese Cruisers in the port of Tsingtao (and this would be a mid morning knife fight with cruisers), I suspect that Chamberlain (who was PM historically until May 1940) would not go to war with Japan. The RN being able to go 3:1 in a turkey shoot is probably enough to get both sides to step back, and go 'Okay our bad that wasn't supposed to happen' and both parties go back to their corners, but that is not a sure thing.

But I do think even if Britain doesn't declare war on Japan for Tsingtao going hot, it would force British resources, and probably american resources to allocate more towards the pacific, that would be bad for europe in the early war, though it might also not hurt that much. The broader whole ww2 (the global side of the conflict) section of this timeline is not definitive yet.

The attack on Pearl was not decided, the actual go ahead order, until the last minute, that is not to say the IJN didn't have plans everyone had plans, the RN the IJN and the USN all followed the same nominal strategic doctrine. 'Mahanian' doctrine but adjusted for their respective situations, so Japan had been wargaming if we have to fight the Americans we have to sail to California and the USN in the Russo Japanese war era knew this was a thing, they didn't take it seriously, because Japan didn't have the colliers to pull that off, and again ONI repeatedly said that the Japs couldn't possibly attack Pearl that they would attack the Philippines but that was also because ONI and BurAero refused to accept the claimed ranges and capabilities of Japanese aircraft and believed that in November the Combined Air Wing was in home waters, not radio silent and sailing through the Pacific.

So if for example Tsingtao goes hot I don't think it means that Britain has to go to war, not with Chamberlain in charge, and I don't if Birmingham scores a mutual knockout with her opposing numbers that Chamberlain would lose his job over it... but it would distract the public from a european war. Would Britain stay out of the war, no, if the war in Asia starts first for Britain, and then the Japanese follow through on their attack on Pearl, or go for the Philippines you might however see an Asian first strategy being argued but again this goes to in 39 Japan was not an Axis member (think its may of 40 that they sign the dotted line) and that the Empire's geostrategic responsibilities and territories being threatened would shift Britain towards containment of Germany rather than its focus because in 38 Britain did not want to get involved in a land war anywhere (not helped by all the RAF wonks going oh no the army is obsolete except as colonial police men, any real wars will be all air power all the time so give us money)
 
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Since we are on the topic of the beginning of world war 2, which is undoubtedly the elephant in the room we should probably go ahead and address one of the potential butterflies. In January of 1939 Tsingtao is the sight of an incident between the RN and Imperial Japanese Army (specifically the Kwantung Army) and that distinction is important because its the army not the navy that causes the problem and the Navy publicly disavows any involvement.

The Kwantung Army had begun administering customs and excise as part of their occupation of northern China (and occupation that had not been approved of by IGHQ in Tokyo) and in January of 39 the impounded a British Merchantman for failing to pay taxes to Japan (read, didn't pay the Kwantung Army) on Chinese goods being exported. Again the IJN goes "We have nothing to do with this" the IJN allows the far east cruiser squadron to arrive in Tsingtao to investigate, the Excise Commission goes "We're not arresting them" and the future Admiral Ashburn goes over to investigate and then they go to Shanghai, this occurs at the end of Jan 39, its four months after the munich agreement. And b y itself this incident would have been nothing, this shit happens in the first half of the 20th century, it is only really an incident because it comes after a crisis in Europe and because it had the potential to be a spark to a much earlier war.

Now this is not to take away from the Munich Crisis, it does not excuse either England or France or the Germans (as the belligerent party) from their responsibility but I am also going to go out on a limb, and if HMS Birmingham Mutual Kills three Japanese Cruisers in the port of Tsingtao (and this would be a mid morning knife fight with cruisers), I suspect that Chamberlain (who was PM historically until May 1940) would not go to war with Japan. The RN being able to go 3:1 in a turkey shoot is probably enough to get both sides to step back, and go 'Okay our bad that wasn't supposed to happen' and both parties go back to their corners, but that is not a sure thing.

But I do think even if Britain doesn't declare war on Japan for Tsingtao going hot, it would force British resources, and probably american resources to allocate more towards the pacific, that would be bad for europe in the early war, though it might also not hurt that much. The broader whole ww2 (the global side of the conflict) section of this timeline is not definitive yet.

The attack on Pearl was not decided, the actual go ahead order, until the last minute, that is not to say the IJN didn't have plans everyone had plans, the RN the IJN and the USN all followed the same nominal strategic doctrine. 'Mahanian' doctrine but adjusted for their respective situations, so Japan had been wargaming if we have to fight the Americans we have to sail to California and the USN in the Russo Japanese war era knew this was a thing, they didn't take it seriously, because Japan didn't have the colliers to pull that off, and again ONI repeatedly said that the Japs couldn't possibly attack Pearl that they would attack the Philippines but that was also because ONI and BurAero refused to accept the claimed ranges and capabilities of Japanese aircraft and believed that in November the Combined Air Wing was in home waters, not radio silent and sailing through the Pacific.

So if for example Tsingtao goes hot I don't think it means that Britain has to go to war, not with Chamberlain in charge, and I don't if Birmingham scores a mutual knockout with her opposing numbers that Chamberlain would lose his job over it... but it would distract the public from a european war. Would Britain stay out of the war, no, if the war in Asia starts first for Britain, and then the Japanese follow through on their attack on Pearl, or go for the Philippines you might however see an Asian first strategy being argued but again this goes to in 39 Japan was not an Axis member (think its may of 40 that they sign the dotted line) and that the Empire's geostrategic responsibilities and territories being threatened would shift Britain towards containment of Germany rather than its focus because in 38 Britain did not want to get involved in a land war anywhere (not helped by all the RAF wonks going oh no the army is obsolete except as colonial police men, any real wars will be all air power all the time so give us money)


Brits do not need much to change things there - in OTL they lost Singapoore thanks to stupidity of their commanders/who thought,that they need only defend roads in jungle/
Japaneese were not supersoldiers or bunch of rambos - they simply go into jungle,made small circle there,and attacked brits from rear.
If brith used their head,they would not lost.
Especially not lost against japaneese so-called tanks - it was only case in war when they accomplshed sometching,mostly becouse brits thought "Oh,it is jungle,nobody would use tanks here"
Stupidity.

And,they leave there about 250 obsolate planes to face Japan,becouse Japan supposed to have bad planes.Well,Ki27 and Ki30 was obsolate,but they had better,too,and numerical advantage.

In 1941 brits send to soviets 200 Hurricanes and 240 P.40.If they send them to Singapoore,city would never fall,even with stupid commanders.


P.S Brits managed to lost,when they had 2:1 numerical advantage.Somehow impossible in theory,even with japaneese army having advanytage in air.
But,they managed !


So,either gave brits commanders with working brain,or send planes who they send to soviet genociders.

Sorry for rant,but i do not like impossible victories made only becouse enemy was idiot.
 
Brits do not need much to change things there - in OTL they lost Singapoore thanks to stupidity of their commanders/who thought,that they need only defend roads in jungle/
Japaneese were not supersoldiers or bunch of rambos - they simply go into jungle,made small circle there,and attacked brits from rear.
If brith used their head,they would not lost.
Especially not lost against japaneese so-called tanks - it was only case in war when they accomplshed sometching,mostly becouse brits thought "Oh,it is jungle,nobody would use tanks here"
Stupidity.

And,they leave there about 250 obsolate planes to face Japan,becouse Japan supposed to have bad planes.Well,Ki27 and Ki30 was obsolate,but they had better,too,and numerical advantage.

In 1941 brits send to soviets 200 Hurricanes and 240 P.40.If they send them to Singapoore,city would never fall,even with stupid commanders.


P.S Brits managed to lost,when they had 2:1 numerical advantage.Somehow impossible in theory,even with japaneese army having advanytage in air.
But,they managed !


So,either gave brits commanders with working brain,or send planes who they send to soviet genociders.

Sorry for rant,but i do not like impossible victories made only becouse enemy was idiot.
Percival had either lost his nerve at some point before he was appointed, which I will accept as an explanation because his papers prior to his appointment showed he was increasingly erratic on the subject regarding singapore and thus the fault for the fall of Singapore is on Imperial General Headquarters of the British Empire, or he fell out and out to cowardice in December of 41, in which case he should have been court martialed. I do not accept Churchhill's claim that Malaya and Singapore fell in 'the worst defeat in British history' because material had been sent to the middle east and to Russia, that smacks of an excuse for lack of a proper fight, now I will accept that the Japanese army would have eventually taken singapore and malaya but I would hope if a proper defense were mounted the British would have had the good sense to blow the fuel depots in the far east to deny them to the Japanese, and those bunkers falling to the Japanese intact is to me the most damning part of the fall of Singapore and Malaya in a strategic concert of the broader war.
 
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Percival had either lost his nerve at some point before he was appointed, which I will accept as an explanation because his papers prior to his appointment showed he was increasingly erratic on the subject regarding singapore and thus the fault for the fall of Singapore is on Imperial General Headquarters of the British Empire, or he fell out and out to cowardice in December of 41, in which case he should have been court martialed. I do not accept Churchhill's claim that Malaya and Singapore fell in 'the worst defeat in British history' because material had been sent to the middle east and to Russia, that smacks of an excuse for lack of a proper fight, now I will accept that the Japanese army would have eventually taken singapore and malaya but I would hope if a proper defense were mounted the British would have had the good sense to blow the fuel depots in the far east to deny them to the Japanese, and those bunkers falling to the Japanese intact is to me the most damning part of the fall of Singapore and Malaya in a strategic concert of the broader war.


Indeed.And, even with supplies going for soviets,they would hold there/and lost Malaya in 1943/.If they have average capable general there.
With supplies for soviets going to Singapoore,they would win.

England truly pulled defeat from jaws of victory there.
 

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