Pax's Alternate History Snippet repository.

ATP · Aug 20, 2021

About Destroyermen series - except Napoleonic Neandertals,ihave other idea.I read alternate history book when soviets defeat Poland in 1920,germans was stupid enough to help them,french socialist stupid enoug to do the same,and Europe fallen.Soviets killed german elites and socialists,and welcomed leftist from other countries like Hitler or Mussolinni.
They in 1937 they purged them all.NKWD was purged too,including comrade Himmler.
They conqered England,when USA lost most of its planes,and send fleets to conqer USA.
USA was as stupid as OTL and more - they antagonize Japan so they joined soviets and send Yamato and Musashi to deal with american superduperbattlewagon.
Becouse USA build 200.000 t ship with 610mm main guns.Stupid,but they did so.
When soviets invaded,smart commander who never belived in it is send to intercept.Thanks to being smart and stolen soviets codes he sneak on convoy from rear,sinking about 1000 ships ,but is intercepted by soviet and japaneese battlewagons and eventually sunked./after sunking few of them/

So,what about meeting on British islands remnants of destroyed soviet convoy,who try to build soviet paradise among dinos ?

Even more funny - Neandertals in Napoleons uniforms fighting commie dinos/with swords and muskets/ who was made soviets by few surviving sailors ?

Imperator Pax · Aug 22, 2021

December 1913
Part 1

Rubin had spent most of the morning yelling along on some tyrannical mess regarding costs, and material and so forth. It had been a charming assembly for everyone involved in the tinkering of engines... not that he wasn't wrong, but the engineer could very well have found a way to do it at eight thirty in the morning that didn't involve shaking the windows.

The point stood though the end of the year was fast approaching. The immediate aftermath of the Xinhai revolt had shaken out over the course of 1912, and of course this past march Song had been shot. Rubin had plenty of reason to complain about new expenditures on the military... not that in China there was anything about being a private military. Something that Reinsch would need to acclimate to. The new ambassador, regardless of official styling, had opened a month with a letter that either dastardly scheming... or the man was that much of an academic. Not that Allen disliked talking about economics, or the matters and principles of industry, but it had been a queer inquiry to receive by letter instead of in person given the reliability, and safety of the rail line to Peking. That topic was of course the matter that drew back to Rubin's tirade.

The big west line getting finished should have marked a number of new opportunities. China was a country who's only competitor in terms of volume of people was the Raj. ... and unlike India China was open to all manner of foreign business. There was the international consortium which controlled the matters of tariffs in China, but that was not the same thing as London's direct rule over the subcontinent. For the grand ambitions, the calculations and the mathematical modelling had been conjured regarding investments ... well all of it had sort of hinged on the underlying matter that the Qing would just sort of keep plodding along. That they would slowly get used to modern convenience. That China would adjust to the modern world, and the great body of people would see an increasing need for those conveniences. Wilson getting elected, and trade barriers coming down hadn't been considered even though they had made plans to export what they could tariffs had already entered into the equation. Manufacturing locally would have eliminated those oppressive burdens from consideration.

Such had been the equations of nineteen ten. Whether or not Rubin liked it they had to be proactive in the matter of arms, and not just in their sale.

There was a thump as the bipod unfolded and dug its feet into the surface of the desk. "There it is," Griswold declared crossing his arms as Yi stood there laden with ammunition as if he were a mule, "What do you want it for?"

"Go and get Shinozaki,"

Shang was out the door without any of the objections he had had this morning on initial receipt of the idea.

"What are you up to John Allen?"

"Well, Sam my father has imparted to me a most devious idea." Or rather had inspired him to such, and he smiled, "I want to test this," He gestured to Lewis's gun, "machine gun against Colt's."

"That's dumb." Griswold replied flatly, and then as he likely figured where this was to go. "That is underhanded. They're not even remotely comparable if you wanted a fair comparison you would compare the potato digger to the Hotchkiss, or the Rexer to Lewis."

"Oh certainly I know this."

"Why?"

"Because my father wants copies of our tests, and also I did promise Lewis feedback."

Sam snorted, "Yeah, so besides Yamagata who else, Yuan obviously."

"Colonel McCulloch," He shrugged, "I can think of a few other names, but some time in the next year after we have everything worked out, I want to be able to tell Lewis as much as we can, and in particular as it relates to this caliber."

"European sales. Do you want Crozier howling after you too?"

"Not at all, we'll do the testing, and next year we'll publish. I've a friend in Italy, who can make sure that Hayashi gets a copy." Which would be of course months down the road, probably closer to June or even later in the year, but it would be a reminder.

"Why don't you just skip this whole thing, invite Hayashi to come watch us saw a tree down with it."

"Don't be ridiculous, Sam. He'd complain we were being uncouth." Though.... that, he'd be happy to admit, did sound fun, "More to the point I need it established we have these, and that we're going forward with them." Then they'd see what Bai did in response of course, but in a year or two... two being more likely, they could invite Cao Kun, or even pig tail out to see production guns.

"What about Qirui," who was still at last word rooting through Anhui, "I admit he's busy, but if Yuan wants to take more cues from the British having Qirui endorse the idea as an artillery officer might carry some more weight. He's been receptive of the Krupp guns." Griswold reminded, and Allen sat back in his chair.

"Thats true, but I suspect Duan is going to be among the last ones to come around on the idea," Which could be a problem, "He's relatively set on the Maxim," Which might have been why he was having a hard time keep pace with Bai Lang's fleet forces in the field, or not, but it would make sense of the reports that they had. "Especially given his experiences taking back Hankou," That had been two years now he realized, and glanced to Yi. Shang returned with the Japanese officer, the latter with ink stains still on his finger tips Allen noted, which of course reminded him of the letters that he needed to send out as well. "Well I need to drop Newt a line," He remarked standing up, grabbing underneath the stock and the aluminum forend and slinging it around to rest on his shoulder... Griswold had yet to fix a sling to the bastard. "Well gentlemen I reckon we have some tests to conduct at the range." The walk let him regale Shinozaki of the test flight of a Lewis gun the year previous stateside, and of the Vickers testing that Percy had bragged about having taken place a few weeks earlier in England.

"Eventually," Griswold agreed chiming in, "the engines will become sufficiently robust enough that planes will be able to be much heavier, to the point of carrying wireless sets as well as machine guns."

"Catch infantry on the road, or survey their positions for artillery. That's the idea the signal corp has had back home once the technology matures some." Allen concluded, "And has Sam has already shown road engines are capable of moving heavy artillery much faster than pack animals, and have less mobility issues than armored cars." He withheld any comments that the bayonet charge had been proven obsolete by the events of July of 1863, the Japanese and the French loved the fool things of course, and the English still thought them important. "With aggressive maneuver warfare being pioneered new technology will be adapted to suit doctrine, and new developments in technology will inspire doctrine. I suspect the horse in warfare will go the way of the horse in other cargo transportation roles, and eventually we will see it be superseded in scouting and other specialist missions later on."

Shinozaki seemed surprised by this idea, "Do you really believe so?"

"I do, one has to consider how many horses labored in England for labor purposes and how many fewer were necessary as the railways proliferated." The Victorian poets had frenzied themselves in writing about the steam engine replacing the horse, how much less in fodder was required for the employment of the train. "It will take time of course, the cavalry believe that the machine gun can be disassembled and transported on the back of ponies to scout and establish a base of fire to hold the enemy while the infantry advances..." And that was with potato diggers of all things, not that Allen fancied the idea of trying to have a troop move and supply Madsens given the occasional persnickety manner of the top feed.

The field had taken about a thousand men, plus engineers with dynamite, near a month to clear and establish, and it half reminded him in placed of the baseball field complete with dugout. Sam picked up a receiver inset to a wall and spoke with the operator as Yi started to unload. "Well we're here."

"I reckon we'll let Yi go next since he humped the ammo along."

"Is that why you carried the gun?"

"Sam you get to shoot the gun whenever you like," Allen pointed out moving from his modified port arms as Griswold warned Shinozaki about the noise. The field had great slabs of steel at known ranges, and ditches with mechanical carriers much as existed for the National Matches at Perry at other spots, but they would only be engaging the steel rectangles. "To the future gentlemen." He pulled the bolt open, and he supposed it did sort of sound like a rattler.
--
Commentary: Madsen and Rexer are used interchangeably and often even when not specifically talking about Rexer (that is British built) Madsen guns. Rexer seems to have done a brisk business exporting into both africa as well as south america and china and become a kind of catchall for the guns, and they weren't the only unliscenced madsen copy that ended up floating around. Though we also know that actual danish build madsens were sold in China.

ATP · Aug 22, 2021

How good are your SI contacts with A-H ? becouse Gunther Burstyn in 1911 proposed build first real tank with turret./Motorgerschutz/ A-H refused,but maybe your SI could buy few.
If it was built before WW1,it certainly change the war.
P.S Good slice-of life,i like it.
P.S.S A-H in 1918 had stronger plane engines then Germany,so at least engines buy there.

Imperator Pax · Aug 26, 2021

ATP said:
How good are your SI contacts with A-H ? becouse Gunther Burstyn in 1911 proposed build first real tank with turret./Motorgerschutz/ A-H refused,but maybe your SI could buy few.
If it was built before WW1,it certainly change the war.
P.S Good slice-of life,i like it.
P.S.S A-H in 1918 had stronger plane engines then Germany,so at least engines buy there.

ATP said:
I forget about bombers.Both Germany and Allies do not have them before WW1,but Russia made first airliner/Illia Muromiec/ in 1913,and in 1914 they turn it into good bomber.Only one was schoot down by german fighters in 1916,and even then it took 3 germans with it.
Other,this time dedicated bomber is italian Caproni Ca1 made 1914.Better version Ca2 and Ca3 was made later.

You could probably buy plans for any of them during WW1.Illia Muromiec would be better,i think.

ATP said:
slow life - as it should be.SI would have no chance to conqer anything till WW1 start.Then,when all empires would be fighting elsywher,he should quaitly take as much as possible till 1918.
Then lie down again,takeall useful russian refugees,and start making factories of russian weapons.Buy what he need when A-H cease to exist,from Germany ,too.
In 1920 take ,if it is possible,as much russian lands as he could.

Then wait for Wall Street crizis and take as much as possible territories again.Take technology from countries which could not harm you,like Sweden,Holland or Switzerland.Czech and Poland,too.

Even during world war 1 there isn't much chance for conquest, and part of that is because while White Wolf Rebellion is set during an arms build up, 'Canon' so to speak is already established by how large the army is by the CYOA that spawned all this. And quite frankly logistics and politics both dictate that real territorial gains can't occur until even after the end of the war. This is why its only in 1920 that a parallel government is established that, though actual territorial administration as a government like entity starts after the whole Manchu Restoration. As for the Murmomets are in this story but they don't actually come in until 1919 coming from Imperial Air Service stocks and machinery fleeing east a very early part of the air force, and really this was written that way because during drafting air travel and exploration is very much in its infancy. And the Russian Revolution, or more correctly the Civil War marks a fairly large emigre into, and in the world war 2 era story Xian is mentioned as having a Czech-town neighborhood of expatriates and their descendants, and they're supporting Southern Russian in what is effectively modern day Kazakhstan lead by a Cossack White Russian government , but in terms of force projection. In this universe as its charted out Japan is in a lot better opportunity to exploit Russian weakness in the far east c. 1920 than a central chinese based state.

Refering to some of the bhind the scenes world building content this is why in the WW2 era story much of the land war culminates in the broad territorial gains against Japan in 43 and 44 as much of what was the Russian Far East that had been annexed by Japan during the Russian Civil War (first as puppet state / protectorate / and then just outright land grabbed)

Financially Wall Street Crisis in 29 is less important to Asia compared to Japan's banking crisis earlier in the decade, and also because China was isolated out of US in the foreign policy progressions following Harding, and this actually good for China because that insulation allowed the domestic market to grow and provide its own goods. (a trend that likely would have continued into the thirties if not for the Manchurian incident OTL).

As to ties to Austro Hungary, there aren't a lot. AH as a government had a lot of back and forth politically that made arms deals complicated, but its certainly true that various technologies were in development in the 1910s before the war that would be useful but just weren't very well advertised. (Its why Austrian engineers ended up among others in Northern China in the 20s to build rifle lines, and armored cars, and work on air planes there.)

Right now there isn't enough infrastructure in China to support large scale mechanization, and it would be more valuable given how scarce machine guns are, to have trucks to move equipment than a few early armored cars. Planes have yet to really prove themselves so it would very costly to bring them in tact or produce them domestically before ww1 proves the concepts and trains the engineers but by 1918 it starts to rapidly proliferate

At the same time though, by sitting out ww1 and its immediate out come the fighter trap (or pursuit trap) can be sidestepped. Yuan Shikai (as well as both sides of the Mexican revolution in 1913) claimed to have both used air planes to drop dynamite on enemy positions and while dubiously effective (other than as a psychological weapon) the idea of dropping bombs, of dedicated bombers would be something that would be looked at by all sides in the first world war but was largely stymied by various early proponents of air power for several years, until really Trenchard and he wasn't a hundred percent right (but that is a topic for the interwar era).

ATP · Aug 26, 2021

Not much conqest,then.And making as much truck as possible is good idea - during war,except making them for army,they should be capable of making at least light tanks.And you are right about forgetting about bombers during WW1 - they could not did much.
Recon planes,and maybe fighters,are another thing.

Imperator Pax · Aug 27, 2021

ATP said:
Not much conqest,then.And making as much truck as possible is good idea - during war,except making them for army,they should be capable of making at least light tanks.And you are right about forgetting about bombers during WW1 - they could not did much.
Recon planes,and maybe fighters,are another thing.

Yeah Bombers as effective concept only really come along once you have a reliable way to communicate, and that was true for ground attack aircraft as well, and thats really an area where in the US System they were lagging behind. The US identification system wasn't standardized and ofcourse early radios weren't all that great, and of course there are the matters of engines, hydraulics,etc.Bombers as a theoretical concept make sense before ww1 but the practical limitations force it back.

Light tanks even, tanks as a concept as landships dates back to Wells writing about it, but the practical limitations of engines is the big hurdle there, then its suspension to hold the weight (and in all honesty suspension is less of a hurdle) and then after that its fuel consumption.

This is actually why trucks make the most sense. You have both a civilian use for them, a clear non military use for them that is useful, and if as the British found out later a strong domestic automotive industry really helps when you want to make both tanks and aircraft down the road. In terms of practical sales, historically Yuan Shikai and then later Duan Qirui's Peking based government sold supplies to the allies, including arms, and thats mostly where this will hew to. Imperial Russia with British lines of credit were scrambling to buy anyything they could get their hands on and thats really where foreign capital will be influxing in c. 1915 and this is also why the Stokes mortar gets adopted for domestic production because the British are willing to export that out (I've talked about that before), but it won't really be light tanks during the ww1 period (obviously Renaults will show up in 1918, and those will be domestically produced) but it will more armored cars than light tanks.

Wheeled vehicles, armor plate, machine guns, turrets optional, can be built with open or closed tops rather than tracked vehicle, machine gun or small cannon armed vehicle closed top turret. Armored cars were being used already in China by 1913, and were being domestically manufactured during ww1. And of course in theory an armor chassis even just rifle proofing on a car means moving in a cavalry esque role, put guys in it, move them where you need them while you have a machine gun firing. And this in the 1910s ranged from dedicated trucks ala later half tracks to guys litterally hanging off the back and side of trucks ala early images of fire engines (fire trucks), and this had been a thing during Shanghai in 1913

Imperator Pax · Aug 28, 2021

December 1913
Part 2

China was a country doggedly looking for investors. That had been true under the Qing, and it was true in both north and south. The last few years had been a boom for the rail, even accounting for the mess of the revolution. The rail was among their core industries, and that behooved John Allen to keep an eye on what their rival firms did. In 1910 [The French] had finished their rail line linking Hanoi to Yunnan. The Japanese had linked Pyongyang to Shenyang the year after, and just this past year completed the trunk line going from Mukden to Peking. The Xinhai revolt though had irrevocably been about railway arguments between local landholders inability to compete with experienced foreign institutions. Really that was to say the English, but the international consortium as a whole had been involved. The rebellion though two years previous had almost assuredly killed any hopes of linking the north of the country from Peking all the way south directly to Hong Kong... well that and this second failed rebellion.

A pity for the Brits, since of course such a line would have benefitted them the most. Xian was a city of about million people, and if anyone were to hold it they would be effectively inviolable a person with such a tax base even though the whole of China's population was frequently argued to be between 316 million to 411 million depending on which diplomatic person you questioned in the Tientsin legation township. However many people in the sum of the country it didn't matter Xian's population was now linked by a single rail, built on a single pattern gauge all the way to the capital... and that meant money.

Money which was the bait for the trap. Bai had made his attempts against targets that would either provide him loot, or means to source funds to support his rebellion. Some had succeeded, some had failed, and that was just the way campaigning worked for feudal horde.

John Allen ran his fingers over the map detailing the great city walls that had held back the Mahomedans fifty years earlier, and scores of lesser rebellions from striking the city, until at least in 1911 the city Hui, and Han populations had firebombed the Manchu quarter and enslaved the survivors. Slavery was an institution in the countryside especially, and one the British missionaries fought against virulently when possible, but this was not Egypt where the British held much greater sway over the countryside, and slavery still persisted in that ancient country as well, just as it continued throughout the many colonies of the French regardless of the Parisian salons many railings against it. The derelict manchu city was ideal for their purposes as a result of the sack, and it was defensible, easily made hardier with the use of guns, and cannons. The walls though were high, and repeating rifles would be well suited to engaging a force in the open to the south.

Building the rail north of the city had been purely engineering in its origin. It was however ideal for defensive consideration. The rail line went north crossed the river and tracked eastward, and that made it harder to threaten from the south. It was possible of course the Bai Lang might maneuver a wide flank around, but the complexity of crossing the river would be foolhardy to chance if one didn't have to... they would take precautions either way and in that the city's walls would help as well.

... and this morning was supposed to be about business not this little war in the pocket he was planning to fight sometime in the spring. The Japanese holdings in Joseon, and their hold of the peninsula never mind the simple more direct sea access made it a simple task to have letters passed forward. It took much less time to send and receive word, and was more secure. Did he expect that none of his mail was unread by anyone but its recipients? No. Indeed there was a good chance his father's agents, as well as those employed by the British Foreign ministry made the effort to read at least some of his letters. The Japanese with their myriad cliques and coteries likely took effort special to read his letter to either of the Yamagata, or anyone else in their country when it was possible. Of course in the case of the younger Yamagata it really was only a matter of engineering, and rail work. Though he supposed the matter of bridges might to some be a military concern if ever the two countries went to war... though of course that was fanciful a notion given just where in country the bridges where and what waters they crossed. If you had marched an army that far inland well... it would be something else entirely.

The elder Yamagata's letters always near to struck political tones. Whether it was farming, or newspapers or really anything he had an opinion. Yamagata Aritomo rarely would discuss the matter of military affairs directly in letters... which of course suggested this letter had been passed solely by trusted courier through Pyongyang to Mukden to Peking and to here at last. The letter though spoke nothing of Lewis's gun, which suggested that it had been penned before old man Yamagata had received any reports from Shinozaki. Yamagata's letter was not the only receipt to consider. Chu had sent a telegram from Peking, a simple and hardly unusual request to meet. The german admiral had expressed an interest in visiting the arsenal, which of course he was hardly incline to refuse.

The German doctrinal position lay that the machine gun was an artillery weapon. This was far from unique the British army agreed at least that much at least in principal. The difference lay in well in bluntly the lessons learned over the last decade. The Germans and the British did both agree that machines of the Maxim sort were too heavy... but the Germans had seen the Russo Japanese war play out, and the British had fought the boer and both had come to different positions that were similar but unique at the same time.

And if the Admiral had been a field marshal? Well then there would have been little concern, because any Prussian general would have seen and known of the Madsen, and dismissed it, but the Navy might be more interested in it for their seebatalions who had to come along from boats. Or at least that would be what his father would likely argue. Entertaining guests was just a part of doing business, plenty of fellas from all the different powers travelled the country to see what the news was... and of course there was the very likely possibility that the admiral was visiting because Bai Lang was still pursuing the easy ransom money that came from abducting missionaries, and Kaiser Bill might well have heard that. Especially in that Berlin could not, would not abide the notion that only England, or worse England and America were engaged in the protection of Christian missionaries in perilous yellow lands in the distant east. He sort of hoped that that wasn't the case, but John Jordan was not happy about the missionary situation, and nor was the new guy.... and the missionaries were as shrill as cats in heat since Yuan's statement at the end of November.

He put the matter aside, and turned to the other matter... or matters of business. Railways had opened up the country. That had opened land purchases for farms, open coal fields, and the ready access to that had made steel a business to expand into that had then been used to furnish every industry that required it like the steel needed for the lines. It all fed in someway into the business, and that had been before they'd started the great western line into the interior of the country that terminated at Xian.

They had been moving westward for years now. Tietsin, Peking, here, would they eventually relocate the main office to a city of a million men, where there was even less western competition to be found than here? There were missionaries in Xian already of course, but there were likely few if any western industrial ventures there yet... and that would be a monopoly to have as textile factories opened up.

The rap on the door was unexpected, and he twisted towards and took two steps before he looked at the clock hanging on the wall. It was after ten in the morning, and that made sense, he had been in the room long enough that the next bounty of papers bundled up must have gotten in. "We have a problem." Bert remarked as he rested a hand on his paunch as his other gripped the rim of his hat, "Well problem is a misnomer, but it could become a problem. Did you get Chu's telegram, of course you did," Bert shuffled into the doorway to look at the records, and nodded, "So the Russians are in debt, up to about their eyeballs. You know this, the whole operation down there is a mess." Which was of course the Russian concessions fault because it was in Hankou... that and the Russian steel investments were, lacking in some respects. "Now, the Japanese, and the French for that matter have both been eying it for years. The Russian government certainly doesn't want to sell, but realistically they're taking on water, and whether you don't like him or not Hayashi has made a point that is hard to refute."

John Allen crossed his arms, "Let me guess, something to the effect of that political instability has caused the russian concession to be overleveraged relative to its earning potential, and that given that instability it would continue to accrue debt, so that they should sell it to Japan." And presumably the French weren't happy about that idea, which wasn't anything they could do about, "Hankou is too far south for us, how does it effect us?"

"Russia ain't gonna give those up. It'd be a slap in the face to national pride. John Jordan is worried it might literally start another Russo-Japanese war," That seemed a little much, "But they're not the only iron and coal ventures Japan has been eying. I know we sell coal and steel to Japan and both Russia and the French might assume that makes us friendly to their position." It didn't of course. Japan expanding its own manufacturing wasn't exactly desirable, but it was no secret that Russia's influence had been steadily eroded for years slowly pushed out of the country not just by Japan but also by its nominal allies England and France. "Which of course brings us to the matter of the banking consortium because of the situation a few months ago with the British and American side of loans."

"Have you cabled Edenborn?"

"I have."

"Colonel McCulloch?"

"Yes. And yes I have sent cables from the Tietsin office to most everyone back home. Our financial capital is not the issue. If Japan keeps its attention basically south of the yangtze, then fine, but Hayashi looks like he's going to maneuver to want more and he'll cite Bai Lang, and the recent revolution, and if what I'm hearing is right Jordan is worried that besides international disorder we could have another revolt kick off in the south. Shanghai isn't exactly the most stable of places."

"I'm going to see Nicks and see if he's settled in yet. I'll make time in my schedule for visiting Peking, and we'll see how far out ahead of this we can get." The reality though was that... was that Hayashi had probably been scheming this sort of thing as soon as he had learned he was to take up his position to be minister given that word of the loan had set the south off again. It certainly seemed as like that he'd given Bai Lang those rifles knowing he'd cause a ruckus to make the country more unstable.
--
Commentary: Now this is fictionalized. Yes Japan had wanted to buyout the Russian concession in Hankou and the steel industry as it was indebt to Japanese lenders. (This was actually a pattern of predatory Japanese lending that would pick up in the next few years, and would show up during their 21 demands). However this is fictionalized in that I don't have primary sources that suggest there was a move in december of 1913, on a push to move on those.

John Jordan's alarm here stems from two historical facts firstly he was initially dismissive of the idea of a revolt sparking from the railway loan agreements, thinking it an exaggeration, and he always regretted not paying more attention to that. Secondly early in this year (in 1913) he had already been worried about the consortium's loans causing problems even though he signed off on it, and this came to fruition. Now historically Jordan was absent from China from June to November, but had been instrumental in securing for the north China government, and Yuan a substantive amount of money a duty he was still able to perform due to the telegraph. He had very much good reason to be concerned about something tipping over just now stabilized country.

Reinsch, historically, during this period is another matter entirely. He well historically was by even his own account not all together accustomed to the business of money lending. The US mission had at the time other priorities, and far less concern about for example Yokohama Specie Bank. The US mission statement was maintain the status quo, but their greater concern seems to have been the restoration of confucianism as the state religion, and the dissolution of parliament... in that order. (The US opinion of the banking consortium was dismissive, and questioned whether it should be involved in such things at all.)

And nominally speaking the US was not a British Ally during this period, but England, the US and Japan were all relatively good terms and publicly quite friendly to one another. [Wilson's administration and the State Department is complicated, and not just because Bryan and Wilson, but also this is prior to the war.] The problem being the UK had the problem of being allied to Russia, Japan, and France. The Japanese and French alliances with the UK had been reaffirmed relatively recently [1911 and 1912 respectively], and the Anglo-Russian alliance a few years prior to those. There existed a concern that China might again prompt a scramble for africa esque mess (as fears with the morocan crisis had stirred concerns that things might escalate to war then).

Now of course that didn't happen and in the following year the one austrian who might have been able to talk the old empire back from war is the one who gets shot giving Konrad and friends the great excuse to get their war on... and well 1914 then plays out.

This is kind of the mid season / half way point mark of the story going into 1914. That will eventually see the battle of Xian, the dragon banner, Bai Lang getting shot in the face, and then of course the unfortunate telegram epilogue oh by the war were declared in europe.

Theoretically White Wolf might actually finish going up this year. In terms of timeline much of the army as it will exist in July of 1916 will have effectively been stood up, and exist. [That is to say 3500 troops] And July of 1916 is where the following story in the timeline opens, world war 1 has been ongoing for two years and Yuan Shikai is now dead with the resulting fraction of the country dividing it into open warlordism. That eventually will lead to the division into the warlord cliques and then to actual full on territorial control after the Manchu Restoration attempt.

Now in timeline terms WW2 era stuff gets divided into the Main Story 37-47 [the bridge incident through the Tokyo Tribunal], and the Destroyermen side story which I will work on more when we get further into the timeline. In between then and the post ww1 time frame the inter war years the next big story even will be post Sun Yat Sen's death and Chiang's northern march and it failing in the face of more developed or less devolved northern cliques. In terms of territorial gain, most of those territorial expansions are further west, but again that will be in the future. [As I said, there is a good chance that White Wolf will finish this year, it chronologically goes through Summer of 1914 and the war declarations of that year.]

ATP · Aug 28, 2021

Good power building.Fun thing - confucianism was not religion but philosophy/that is why many jesuits in 17th century cooperated with it/ ,but it still turned into religion in the end.
Just like buddhism.And marxist,too.

P.S about light tanks - main problem was that first brke ecouse of mechanical failures almost at once.FT17 was better,but still was lucky to made 50km bithout failure. First which could made 200km or more was british 6t Vickers.Which mean,then till 1928 when it was made you could forget about tanks.

Considering that first planes capable of precize bombing was dive bombers - wjich was american Curtiss Hawk biplane fighters - you could forget about bombers till those are made,too.
About medium bombers - they were good only in hitting cities.When germans partially destroyed that spanish town in 1937,they try to hit railway station there.Where,except part of windows,nothing was destroyed.
So,forget horizontal bombers,too.Unless you get american bomb-sights - B.17 ,at least during good weather,could hit targets.Mostly.

Imperator Pax · Aug 29, 2021

Speaking of Buddhism, since I've already mentioned the 21 demands Japan is going to make, and then after that I'm probably going to veer into the whole issue of Bushido.

So technically the 21 demands itself, according to Jennings Bryan then US SoS, were considered less bad than they'd been expecting. Bryan wasn't happy with the demands, because it flew in the face of the US's supported open door policy, and Japan did moderate its demands, but they were initially put forward in January of 1915 to Yuan's Government. The general consensus was that this was a stupid move, because well world war 1 was on, but the demands would have given Japan little that they didn't already basically have. The Group Five demands however were in many respects based on the ongoing Japanese colonization of korea (which had been annexed in 1910, but had been increasingly under the Japanese sphere of influence as far as the 1870s) and Taiwan. Shinto basically has minimal footprint in China, it was exported later, but Buddhism existed, and its from China that Japan imported buddhism originally, but Shintoism pre Meiji was a completely different animal to begin with... and Buddhism in Japan underwent a lot of changes with the Meiji revolution.

Group 5 laid out that Japan would be able to set up schools, and form a buddhist society to create a coherent policy 'advising' is one translation I see a lot. Obviously Japan didn't want to export Christianity as Christianity was kind of a mess in Japan, and in particular in Korea where it was strongly tied up with Korean Nationalism. The running of schools and buddhist temple structure would have among other things given Japan a local counter to western missionary and education. The french for example during this period were the center of socialism in Europe, and would even into the thirties be involved in sheltering anarchists, socialists and communists and other various radical student groups in their concessions, as well as exporting catholicism the latter as part of official French national policy. The French position, and support for socialism, was something that the Japanese genryo didn't appreciate.... which is of course ironic since the KMT basically ran away to Japan. (Admittedly this might have contributed to the post Taisho crack down on socialist ideals in Japanese society, but thats speculative)

Anyway Japan after WW1 starts goes to throw its weight around, misjudges the situation upsets Britain and America (I can't find a Imperial Russian perspective of the whole thing, which is odd because especially the Manchurian concessions were clearly about diminishing Russian influence.) and does pretty serious financial strain to Japan's trade economy during a period where they were doing very well otherwise. Japanese exports to China drop significantly during a period where Japan is one of the few big exporters left in town. This is good for the US to an extent, but Japan really shoots itself in the foot, because this is really the period of time where Japan stops being a debtor country and is actually running a trade surpluse and loan money to other countries more than being loaned money to.

And accepting the reduced set of demands is really what sets the stage for weakening Yuan Shikai to the point where the National Protection War is set up to break open the country. Yuan declares himself emperor, and thats what sparks the NPW, and and declaration and the acceptance of hte 21 demands is enough that it sours a lot of his previously reliable allies, some of whom simply sit the war out in their new provinces and others actually side with the rebels. Its very likely that Japanese played both sides, supporting both Sun Yat-Sen as well as Yuan Shikai during the national protection war as Sun's return to Canton from Japan also coincided with material aid to rebelling southern provinces (The price of this aid was of course to be making good on concessions Sun had proffered to the Japanese during his exile, indeed the Japanese 21 demands seem to have been in some part based off of concessions they extracted from Sun in 1913).

And basically Yuan wins the National Protection War, Sun gets run out of the country again, except well despite the Beiyang army demonstrating its still the best army in China (if by decreasing margins, due to defections of various Dujun) Yuan passes away not long after, and he dies as president not as emperor. He abdicated as part of the peace process. This is important, because again we turn to John Jordan, John Jordan as a diplomat for most of his career was very pro Japanese, he was a staunch supporter of the Anglo-Japanese alliance, but he opposed, misliked heavily, the entry of Japan per that alliance into ww1 against Germany, specifically because it would in his opinion (and vindicated by history) destablize China further. It is probably for this reason that Edward Grey didn't inform Yuan of Japan's ultimatum to the German concession in August 1914, and John Jordan wasn't happy about that. [The Foreign Office supported Grey's position, and the Japanese position on Tsingtao's seizure.] Now ultimately John Jordan's mission statement, his objective, was preservation of British interests in China, and he opposed the 21 demands on those grounds, and because of British interests he wasn't supportive of Yuan's pursuit of the monarchy. He felt it would destablish the country (which apparently the Japanese agreed, citing the possibility of unrest in the south, but that JOhn Jordan didn't feel was accurate. He was basing this on Shanghai, and Canton (and this was before obviously Sun came back from Japan again). In any event at this point the Russian minister to China, joins with Jordan, and the interim Japanese charge d'affres to basically say this is a bad idea, though it seems that as with 1911 Jordan had underestimated what was going to happen (or he blatantly lied to Grey, but I doubt the latter). The regular Japanese charge d'affres takes offense at this in december of and basically gets together with his Russian, French, Italian counterparts along with Jordan and basically states that there will be a foreign intervention in China if anything happens. (Yuan delays officially citing the Chinese new Year, and I don't know what Reinsch was thinking during this period, he seems from his own statements to have been caught off guard by this whole mess, and his committment to the open door policy may be why he got left out, also his disinterest in the pursuit of the banking consortium probably also contributed.)

Whats interesting of course is that Jordan proceeds to call on his government (As well as Japan) to support Yuan in the National protection war, specifically citing apparently American intention (America as a neutral power) to support Yuan Shikai. (I can't say for sure at this juncture but I'm pretty he means the State Department under Jennings Bryan, but Reinsch doesn't seem to really be clear on what it is he wants to do about this in but he wasn't particularly thrilled by it. (In fact he doesn't suppress any kind of kind of strong emotion for the whole monarchy affair). According to Reinsch all the foreign legations in Peking seemed happy with Yuan going to a monarchy... so I get the feeling from both sides that they weren't really in frequent communication with one another. Violence ensued, with the revolt in Yuunan, which Jordan explicitly states had Japanese support (which is not a surprise because Cai E had received some of Bai Lang's rebel troops at least some of his surviving equipment from those troops who had been on campaign in the south in 1913).

[Japan over the course of this seems to flip flop back and forth, as a result of different cliques within the government taking different sides, as I said above Yuan received aid from Japan, but there was clear Japanese support to the south as well] John Jordan, Grey, the Japanese and the United states in combination with discussion with various dujun (military governors) start trying to work for a peace solution. The US advocates for the return to the status quo. The British Consul-General in Canton basically states with certainty at this point that the Japanese are financing and arming in the south, and this was reported to also be the case in Shantung.

Yuan basically breaks down, abdicates goes back to being president and then basically dies. Which is the goal of the war was Yuan doesn't get to be Emperor, then yeah victory, if Yuan's goal was to reconquer Yunnan then yeah he lost, but if the goal was to remove him from power by military victory, it failed, hostilities had ground to a halt after Yuan abdicates. This is really the point where Jordan truly sours on Japan for good, and this is really the point at which the warlord period breaks open. yunnan remains defacto independent even after Cai E's death in December.

It is here however we move to talk about Japan. A great deal is made about the japanese idea of Bushido, and that Japan is this collectivist country that is often turned into (especially in WW2 propaganda) of an insectoid hive mind of collective national will. Bushido as an ideological concept was only popularized in the 20th century. It entered the western consciousness with Inanzo Nitobe's book and from there was adopted by Japanese militarists because it was popular with westerners they were exposed to, and what I mean by this is that the meiji genryo figures like Yamagata Aritomo didn't think of Bushido in the way that Nitobe described. This is because Nitobe basically took his long time interest in western ideals and couched his description of the soul of Japan in terms of western chivalry equivalents. There was no unified concept of Bushido. The Hakagure was written by an 18th century clerk lamenting a bygone era that he'd never lived, and it specifically addresses the correct behaviors of people from his clan not as a universal this is how everyone does it. This is something that gets missed, because when the Samurai were dissolved as a class those distinctions and domains didn't vanish. Aritomo had his own ideas about what was best for the country and fought strenuously to protect the rights of the meiji elder statesmen but also of his specific domain, and this was the beginning of the cliques in Japan. Aritomo did stupid reckless shit in the Sino-Japanese war that could be described as 'bushido' but could also just as easily be explained as aggressive prussian military doctrine. Nitobe's book is basically fiction written to appeal to a western audience, it didn't sell well in Japan originally, and Hakagure in much the same fashion was basically all but forgotten.

If any true vestige of bushido as it existed in the edo existed in Japanese culture after the samurai were dissolved it was in the fractious infighting of the military cliques rather than in the national identity. The arguments ,which often disolved into assassination and murder attempted coups based on slight political differences, and regional discrimination. This ultimately probably contributed to how Japan would act in the second world war and during the interwar years, but it would be very inaccurate to say that was the only influence. Japan was heavily influence first by the French militarily and melded well with their concept of elan and the cult of the bayonet (which admittedly was also a clear part of Russian doctrine continuing into the Red Army as it was going into ww1) rhetoric to the extent that Japan was was asked as part of the Anglo-Japanese alliance to assist Britain's bayonet fencing training. (this is why the ww1 SMLE have Arisaka pattern sword bayonets). Indeed the attacks on Russian positions in the Russo Japanese war were lauded by Britain. However those bayonet charges were wasteful and reckless, and probably unnecessary. The Japanese viewed those attacks however as what had won the Russo-Japanese war because of unreliability in their ammunition supply, particularly for artillery and their lack of ability to coordinate artillery with attacks in no small part because those attacks were often ordered without input from higher command.

Ironically the Imperial Russian Army took the Japanese bayonet attacks against their fortified and seem to have have assumed the same thing as the Japanese thing. That regardless of the casualties the attack suffered a bayonet charge works. (Notably Pershing and other US observors in the RJW disagreed with this conclusion). However the following Japanese experiences at war provided confirmation bias repeatedly confirming that bayonet charges worked time and time again up until they faced prepared allied defenses, and in particular the much more reliable US coordination of machine gun and artillery (and to a lesser degree the effectiveness of semi automatic rifles). The Japanese in doctrine outright derided this thinking in the interwar years rejecting that any defensive fortification of machine gun and artillery would really stop a concerted attack because their own experience and coordination in their army was very poor. Infantry was the principle Japanese arm of battle, much like many other armies, but the Japanese army underwent much more limited specialization and had far fewer specialist roles, and those specialist roles were not treated with respect. Logistics, and artillery officers were not afforded the same degree of respect in the Japanese army and that only continued to decline in the interwar years all 'based' on the 'lessons' of the Japanese victory against Russia in the Russo Japanese war, because a key part of that mythos was that once again Japan had only lost at the negotiating table (which of course made a convenient excuse to blame the diplomats, or for that matter ignoring 'weak willed' superior officers).

Notes, exta, Japan's 21 demands were issued after Russia (and this is 1915) issued new demands to the Chinese government, but it the driving force for the 21 demands were within the Japanese cabinet, and seem to have been the personal project of the foreign ministry without consultation of the elder statesmen. (Again, how much of Yamagata considering it a blunder was who's idea it was we will likely never know.)

ATP · Aug 29, 2021

Fun thing - just like modern shinto was invented after 1870,in Poland we have neopogans who practically created polish pagan panteon after 1918.

Imperator Pax · Aug 30, 2021

This is a follow on to the Rambly Social Science stuff, and specifically how it relates to the fictional story, but first some more historical backdrop. This is probably no more 'spoilery' than any of the Behind the scenes content over is in the misc thread under extras. So when I say 'i suspect' I mean me personally. Now what I mean by this is that there is a lot of coincidental time involved during the National Protection War, and also yes various British officials and sources say Japan is backing the rebelling southern provinces, and it is accepted that Japan provided support materially and encouraged some of Yuan's monarchial adventure. (He received money and guns). So first and foremost National Protection War is a pretty grandiose title for the conflict, and the anti monarchy movement is probably a better one, but even it or any of the anti Yuan sentiment slogans run into well... bluntly the reason a lot of scholarship says 'this is where the warlord period really started being' is because the south was not unified.

British sources plural state that Japanese material aid was supporting distinct different groups. Cai E in Yunnan, anti-Yuan force in Shantong, and Sun :Yat-sen and his movement in Canton. (and I don't mean to beat a dead horse, but Sun seems to have come into Canton from Japan, and then fled the country apparently some time in March or April of 1916, after Szechuan had fallen to the Beiyang. As it stood Sun's perennially had this problem was he never had a military to speak of, he had a very hard time getting military officials in Canton to listen to him, give him much time of day.) Now this is the thing, I would almost lay money that multiple factions in Japan were picking sides and backing different horses in this race. Hioki for example (the regular charge d'affairs for the legation) had apparently been offended by Yuan basically ignoring him and he seems to have gone out of his way to then cause trouble and stir the pot. (and in the case of John Jordan, Jordan seems to have seen this behavior as very unprofessional and it did not help Jordan's opinion despite for some of Hioki's actions Jordan being onboard with it, Hioki just keeps escalating and he was probably responsible for some of the aid, potentially what came into groups in Shantung).

So as I've stated in the RSS the British opened (much as they did in 1913, 1911) attempts to a 'peace conference' or 'congress' relatively quickly into hostilities opening. Cai E doesn't seem to have been involved in that at all. In fact most of the negotations seemed to have involved either pro Yuan Beiyang Dujun, or the Dujun who had declared neutrality. Cai E pretty much said 'I'm independent' and that was that. He didn't seem to care what the international response was. Anyway the result of this is that along with the US and the other participating countries in other capacity Yuan is talked down and into abdicating and going back to just being president... but the damage has been done. The dujun the military governors he appointed have demonstrated that they can ignore Peking's directives, and get concessions, that they are king maker in politics. Hence Warlord era.

Yuan's passing hit the international community rather suddenly, the head of state dying was not regarded as a good thing because Yuan even diminished was still viewed as having a role in holding the country together, and that was not a position that anyone was prepared to fill... and that results in a relatively well managed succession crisis in which Duan Qirui steps into being prime minister but gets Li to be the new largely toothless president. This is what leads to the foundation of what will be the Anhui, and Zhili cliques historically and is what erodes the northern military advantage further.

I've mentioned in white wolf that Yuan was trying to downsize the military that he had to upkeep, and before the 'Second revolution' had wanted to stand down tens of thousands of troops from his already reduced to half a million man army in summer 1913. Yuan had attempted to start a fresh of reforms and downsizing due to both financial concerns and loyalty concerns (well founded given defections and independence declarations from Dujun he appointed). One number suggests that at Yuan's death China had a half million men under arms, and that that would increase to 700,000 soldiers in 1917, and this number would continue to grow. And this is the important part of that, some sixty percent of that number, give or take, was thought to be in northern china. Sun Yat-sen was thought to in 1919 represent a motley collection that totally 130,000 troops who's officers demonstrated in that year that they could ignore him whenever ever they felt like it. (Best demonstrated by the warlord of Yunnan paying lip service to the KMT officially but running Yunnan independent of the 'canton based government' even basically into the second world war. He had about seventy thousand troops in 1919). This doesn't touch equipment, or training or any of that. Also it doesn't touch the various 'neutral armies'.

With that lets pivot to the store material.

Technically speaking the cadre or what will be Xian can be thought of in summer of 1916 as falling into one of two categories, either as explicitly a Zhili faction (at this point, that is in 1916) they're still headquarted in the western half of the province) or as one of the neutral armies. However in 1916 the Zhili-Anhui clique split is not fully developed, and could be considered part of the Anhui clique despite location. By 1917 its more clearly a government in itself, an independent or 'neutral' faction. Pays lip service and nominal taxes to Peking, and is loosely involved in the beiyang apparatus of status (not unusual in 1917 given that the other major northern cliques had tens of thousands of smaller neutral 'associate' troops participating in a similar manner, which is actually part of the problem.) See in summer of 1917 President Li finally manages to get enough support to force Duan to resign the premier ship.

No Li has basically no military of his own, and the south which nominally supports his presidency and is happy by Duan stepping out really isn't in any position to help him when Duan basically thats fine I'm quitting I'm going to tiestin and then walks out of the capital (well gets on a train) with his entire basically army leaving the capital, and a bunch of Duan's supports had been calling on him to ignore Li and keep the premiership so they basically start declaring independence in a measure thats quite similar to what the south had done to Yuan in the 'national protection war' except we're talking substantively larger armies than the south had. Li goes 'hold on guys' and invites Zhang Xun (the pigtail general) to come and mediate this. The guy who has never cut his queue, queue Manchu restoration.
WW1 started in summer of 1914 and it is in that period that the White Wolf Rebellion ends petering out because Bai Lang has been chased in the hinterlands (where he was far less welcome and had far less support) and killed Japan takes Shantung and the 21 demands get sprung. So the open door policy can be loosely summed up as foreign trade (or at least great power and important other european countries) were supposed to be inviolable to a degree. Extraterritoriality was a well established concept. The national protection war though doesn't really effect things. In 1915 the Cadre is making money by basically exporting food, raw materials and finished goods to allied belligerents (that it to say, the British empire and her allies, i.e. Japan and Russia, and specifically iin Russia's case small arms because they in particular are buying whatever they can get, especially if it can be built in 7.62x54R). This continues even following Yuan's passage, though by this point sale of arms has declined, and will decline, as Russia's need for emergency procurement drops through 1916 [as it did historically.]

[Now Duan Qirui starts his agitation for the 'republic of china' to enter on behalf of the entente, he wants the country to declare war on Germany and friends so he can have a seat at the peace table (this is one of the things president Li was especially thrilled with, and Sun wasn't either in 1916... by the time that Duan finally gets that war declaration in 1917 well Sun a month later in September follows suit from his 'government' in Canton).]

The Cadre keeps up business as usual, and will continue business ventures out west. In 1916 They have 3500 men under arms and is expanding from that (this is what will be standing up basically at the time of 'war were declared' in Europe, and what they will stay at until Yuan's death). [For reference when Pigtail General restores the manchu emperor to the throne in a year he has five thousand troops to fight what Duan Qirui's fifty thousand]. In 1917 when that manchu restoration happens the cadre exploits this and takes over de facto most of western Zhili, and effectively secure their western flank into Shensi, and Shanxi (Yan Xishan's province). This is done, this legitimized in the name of, because Duan Qirui goes on to claim, and provide some (possibly fabricated evidence) that Pigtail general had been paid by the German Empire to do this thing, Manchu Restoration bad, Royalist sympathizers (like the nominal civilian governor of the province, emphasis civilian) are removed from power.

[Qirui also accuses Sun Yat-sen's people of also taking money from the Germans as well basically saying thats why they don't want to declare war on Germany and it kind of works, cause Duan comes back to power in Peking throws rewards around to people who supported him, and gets his war declaration]

So now Duan is back in power, and he's on the allied side, 'hey japan, hey england, hey america (the US had entered the war in April) we're on the same side, I need to train and equip a new modern army to fight in europe' (or as was suspected by the legation, fight against the South). This is the political lead up to what will eventually be the state that will exist in 1920 when Xian basically becomes is own clique still a neutral army (that is one that isn't vying for Peking) and lets Fengtien, Zhili, and Anhui clique just do their thing.

Remember how I said that whole 21 demands thing came off as heavy handed to the British and the US didn't like it because it fucked with Open Door, and how Hioki's actions in particular but his perceptions of conduct overall during the Northern Protection war had soured John Jordan to the Japanese as an ally. This whole warlord development has a pretty big impact on the international community in China especially once ww1 ends. [Admittedly that will only be really showing up in story content once we get through 1919, and after moving to Xian.]

ATP · Sep 1, 2021

Cadre of 3500 in 1916 - if he use them as corporals and sergeants,he could have 30.000 quickly.Not enough for any bigger land grabs.It seems,that he must wait for that.
After 1918 it was not only Czech and Russians,but also polish dyvision.In OTL they were rearguard fighting soviets,and Czech betrayed them./They destroyed rails,so poles could not retreat/
about 1000 manage get to japaneese,rest surrender.And was treated far better then russians - i read memories of one soldier,who saw CZK made from all minorities which hunted russian elites and tortured them to death.Polish officers was only executed.After 1921 common soldiers were returned to Poland.

SWo,if they manage go away without being captured,you could have polish villages,too.

Imperator Pax · Sep 4, 2021

December 1913
Part 3

There wasn't a problem landing the first shot. The recoil was prohibitive though, Bang's rifle had a similar problem, but wasn't quite as severe even for a smaller man. Alfred at least seemed enthused, rather than discouraged. "That's three inches," Forrest the elder remarked measuring his own group from the hundred meter target. The magazine of the rifle was reloaded and handed off to the Italian naval attaché to give him a go at it, and they stepped back to watch.

The enlarged browning 1900 to accommodate the eight millimeter was an excellent distraction from the prospect of machine guns, especially as Alfred, and his Italian friend had both brought their mauser pistols along. "Its very impressive," Alfred remarked.

"I'll pass that along to Sam." He deferred as the Italian naval officer finished sending the fifth round down range. From a mechanical operation perspective the Browning action had needed little difference to handle military rifle cartridges and their load, such was the strength of the action's design. Sam was right though the recoil was prohibitive in the way the action worked, but it was a trade off with not having to come off to work a bolt.

"Has the boy worked up a price," His father asked.

"Only been told it'd be expensive."

"Any guesses?" Alfred's attention had turned to the discussion. "You surely have some idea as to the amount of work to go into it. I mean you've worked out the problems with the barrel manufacture I know that much."

Allen frowned, blown barrels for the Mausers had been part of the reason JP had insisted on installing pyrometers to make sure heat treatment was even and consistent rather than the eye balling the color of the metal like Springfield still did. "As for cost," There was the machine work obviously. Cuts. There was barrel, the springs... the stock... treating the wood. "Northwards of a hundred dollars."

The elder Forrest straightened at that, "I hope thats for making the hand copies, Jesus." The two Americans turned to the German Admiral.

"I believe exchange is four marks to the dollar." Alfred commented stiffly.

... and the Franc was about five, where as five bucks went to the Pound. "Griswold is doing work to the design, but its a tinkering project in his spare time. Realistically we'll just build Paul Mauser's rifle." The 1907 introduced some other features, ditching the langevisier made sense for cost.

"You are on speaking terms with him, he would be interested in this."

Most likely he would be, "We'd have to get the lawyers involved. This is based off of Browning's patent, and the fellows who wrote up his patent apparently did an iron clad job. Paul would have to pay royalties to FN given they have the rights to sell Europe as I've been told, and well," He chuckled, "And well Old Mauser would not be thrilled by that." and the same was true in the states, just the same with Remington's rights, unless some judge were to rule that the work needed for make the rifle work in the larger caliber was sufficiently different or innovative, which he didn't think it was per se... "We have some of the corporation going to Europe who can tell Mauser about the idea," but the last that Mauser had talked about in the idea had been for some other mechanical system he had hoped to develop.
--
The old man leaned back into his chair. The fire place going, its chimney working in the old palace Allen noted.

"Figured you'd be busy with winter and all?" He certainly had been last year. Coal production without rails was often confined to very nearby locations, but since he was effectively the rails, and the manufacture of engines the cadre had the advantage that they could dig coal all year and stockpile it. Not only did that make it so that they had fuel for the trains in reserve it also made it possible to sell coal to the cities. Horizontal as well as vertical expansion as it was called, "With the trade barriers coming down what are the chances on oil?"

Standard Oil, before the great Kerfuffle in 1911 had been involved in pushing the oil trade, but their main office... now it was Standard Oil of New York... was in Hong Kong, and after the revolution, and now this past year... "Not especially good, Rockefeller still sells kerosene into China, but between their court cases and the shooting everything is at anchor."

"Doesn't that mess you up, oil locomotives are the future and all?"

"They are," And the designs were sound now, "But we produce coal,"

"As I recall McCulloch's boy has found oil here."

"Bill has found oil yes." and even if the Qing had stayed in power they'd have spent years fighting off claim jumps attempts by Russia and Japan, and Mitsubishi would probably be the one to win that fight in the end without the state department really coming through. They had yet to really amass the capital necessary for large scale exploration anyway. Bill was sure there was oil in the country though, "Standard being broken up was another delay I'll admit," But almost as much was the British failure to link north south china in one single continuous rail line... which was hardly John Jordan's fault the man had tried to keep everything going. Still if Standard had still been one great kraken there probably would have been more interest in oil exploration, but that would be capital intensive. Drilling rigs, and all the rest and the searching was just out of the question. "Texas oil is cheaper to import, that's true of gasoline, or kerosene for that matter." There was a much larger demand for the latter.

"The minister," Reinsch, "Is uncomfortable with the situation. The banking conglomerate doesn't sit well with him, and the Brits shaking around makes everyone question the status quo, but China's financial insolvency..." He trailed off, and then reached for his glass. "The fact the Chinese don't have any kind of domestic corporations just throws him. He understands the guild systems at least an oblique way, but he talks to Yuan and doesn't seem to understand half of the mash."

"What was he expecting to find?"

"Japan, of a generation, or two back, but the Japanese had their clans to keep things together. Their last dictator stepped down for gods sakes, and then joined their legislature." Word of the last 'Shogun' Yoshinobu's death had been somewhat buried in among the other news going on, "The Japanese were more bottled up the Qing were, and I'm sure Perry showing up gave them a shock, but it isn't as if Europe was all that industrialized in 1800. You still had feudal princes in Germany for gods sake."

Europe had industrialized late, was still industrializing. Any pretentions to the contrary they had been playing catch up to the England for two on centuries. For countries like Germany that meant not having the false starts, but France was still having to import machine tooling from America and had been doing that since not long after the war between the states had concluded itself. Weber argued that the reason for such was the protestant work ethic, or some lack thereof in Catholic moral upbringing. That a good catholic looked not beyond the station they were born into... which of course must have said the Irish were terrible catholics. "I am all too familiar with the condition of Europe during grandfather's day." He remarked getting up and walking to the decanter and opening it to refill the glass, "And of the challenge of change. Japan's Imperial Army is a very much a different animal than Yuan's Beiyang."

"In spite of their shared love the Prussian lessons." The old man leaned forward, "And Japan's example is what, especially with the breadth of expenditure Yuan engages in, the minister expected to find. He has this riven mess." They were meandering again. The old man had been dragging around weaving some kind of complex net who's only common thread was money, or perhaps resources invested, or influence... the shadow game of power. Apparently he had decided to move beyond searching probes for information and responses, "Reinsch is uncomfortable with the situation of the country. He in particular doesn't like the business of loans necessary to keep the government afloat given the indemnities of previous wars."

He nodded in response. If ever he needed to rebut the notion of European supremacy it would root in the facts touched earlier. The continent of Europe, and her great powers there of had not industrialized but in the last century. England's sprawling colonial empire, in specific her now defunct 'East India Company' had chartered before the Qing dynasty had been founded. Access to coal whether in England, Belgium, or the United States made things easier to industrialize, and there was probably some intangible thing... what the Japanese called seishin that had allowed the explosive growth from farmers and craftsmen to industrial juggernaut. That was however the work of great men, whether singular or by banding together. "I suppose he takes issue with the international committee responsible for tariffs then?"

"He would, and does, if not for Adams constant prattle about corruption."

"Adams?" Allen misliked this turn, and set his glass down without drinking.

"The good doctor has been ferreting out all that he can on railways as run by everyone, and your ties with Yuan are well known. Rockhill had covered where its possible, but the opening of the line out west has achieved its reception." If you hadn't wanted to travel the perilous lengthy terrible roads by wagon, assuming the wagon wasn't enjoinder-ed by mud, or waylaid by bandits, the canals and ships by river were the best way to travel to Xian previously. The same was true of many, and such the term gunboat diplomacy as British steam ships had made their way against the currents and now other banners had joined them, "If you're aiming to do something whether you want to tell me or not, you should give Rockhill notification so he's prepared to defend it."

It wasn't as if they'd ever build a north south rail line, anyway. The British would have taken it as a slap in the face. John Jordan had spent literally years in and out trying to get it done since he had left from his previous post at Seoul... "Well as I have no interest in embroiling myself in the sort of mess that sparked off the Qing being toppled, I will not be building any lines to Canton. Xian has a million people living in that city. They have kerosene lamps and now they have regular access to the telegraph, and the locomotive." Despite having been put in his original position by the revolution of 1911, Zhang had accepted the more formal position of Dujun from Yuan Shikai last summer and much of that had been to keep General Ma from settling any lingering sentiments that might have existed between their respective societies. "I expect in terms of business the factories there will keep me quite busy." It would never be a company town of course, businesses should never get into the habit of minting their own currency. "I should think that I will spend the months after spring begins in the city."

"I will phrase that to the minister such that it is an economic matter."

"It is."

"A city of million men in the deep interior? If any rebel were to take it, I scarce imagine that modern gunboats would be sufficient to dislodge them if they had modern arms of their own." The elder Forrest jerked his head towards the map, not unlike the one in his own office, "Bai Lang has split his armies, Yuan has cut the ones in the south off from reunited, but they were by last word continuing south. Duan Qirui is chasing them through Anhui, but they are moving west. Perhaps Bai Lang means to run all the way back to Baofeng City, to make a stand there he certainly has the popular support."

He thought of Henan, and the coal mines that during these months of the year in particularly would be mined by farmers with no other income... or worse the ones who had to drudge that ten mile track as coolies. Such men were recruits for Bai Lang army, as had been demonstrated a year ago when he'd been stirring trouble before going east, and south. "You don't think he will?"

"I'm not stupid you blinded his uncle, he'll make the attempt to come. Honor lets him do nothing less, and if you move out west hanging out a shingle promising wealth, he'll see that grudge of his with the Wangs." The Wang family was dead now. Bai Lang had swept through last year and burned their family home to the ground, "And right into waiting machine guns I suspect. Or those German howitzers. That is the plan isn't it?"

"He has to come out west to find out." Allen replied and took a drink. "He might not do that, Qirui might catch him yet. That will be fine with me, as I said father, its an economic matter."

--
Commentary: So ends December 1913, not technically. Technically the next 'chapter' will cover Christmas and New Years but its (the chapter) titled 'the New Year'. So to touch on some points before I go on the design of full power semi automatic rifles had a number of pursuing developers. Sweden, Norway, Denmark, France, and Germany all were looking at the concept. Kjellerman, Bang, both are ones who come to mind. Kjllermann even did a long recoil gun like Browning's Model 8. The french would go to field the Chauchat and had preceding the war several competitions to try and find a design that worked, including long recoil designs. Mauser played around with toggle locks. In China General Liu who has been mentioned and will appear off and on during the following story designed a rifle to bear his name that operated on a blow forward mechanism (like Bang's rifle, or the later Walther self loaders of world war 2), and it was designed to also be able to switch to a bolt action rifle like the mondragon. Bang's rifle would be in 8mm Mauser (even though he did want to originally do it in a 6.5 apparently.)

The dancing around the economics matter in this chapter as we approach the end of the year is sort of necessary to give the idea the scale of monopoly. Vertical and horizontal business expansion was a common practice of companies during this period. So getting into coal mining, and then steel manufacture, and farming for local consumption all feeds into doing things in house (this isn't uniquely American, actually its originally an English corporate thing (company store might be associated with American corporations, but that was an English invention, but you would go on to see it with among others Japanese Zaibatus, Korean Chaebols, and to a lesser extent with German Concerns or Cartels). This is important because in this period in 1913 Allen and the corporation is a business not an empire.

Internally getting caught up in the 'follies of the east india company' is the exact opposite of his goal. (Mind you the East India company's failure was more a matter of internal corruption than anything else, the Nabobs is kind of an interesting crisis in itself). I attempt to keep things somewhat within the realm of reasonable possibility and yes I could include more detail... and the more I write this the more I'm like to myself... 'yeah I need to cover more' or go back and write the events of 1905 in korea, or 1911 (which would stretch into 1912). Regardless the plan is to try and get through June 1914 by Christmas That way in the new year I can start posting the events of 1916.

Imperator Pax · Sep 4, 2021

ATP said:
Cadre of 3500 in 1916 - if he use them as corporals and sergeants,he could have 30.000 quickly.Not enough for any bigger land grabs.It seems,that he must wait for that.
After 1918 it was not only Czech and Russians,but also polish dyvision.In OTL they were rearguard fighting soviets,and Czech betrayed them./They destroyed rails,so poles could not retreat/
about 1000 manage get to japaneese,rest surrender.And was treated far better then russians - i read memories of one soldier,who saw CZK made from all minorities which hunted russian elites and tortured them to death.Polish officers was only executed.After 1921 common soldiers were returned to Poland.

SWo,if they manage go away without being captured,you could have polish villages,too.

Well as for the Czech legion things in the Russian Civil War will be a bit different here, once we get to 1918. And there are Polish expatriates in China in the twenties. Among others

As to the 30k thats roughly about troop strength for the cadre forces in 1918, where it will be sitting at Three divisions. Part of that is the matter of needing the equipment for those troops and also having Xian as a city as a recruiting base (its 1918 the US is in the war now so a lot of effort is shifting towards greater local production for complex machinery). This basically also represents besides just Xian having what amounts to having two and a half provinces worth of land, even if Shansi isn't very valuable land according to most people in 1918. Its really only when the only big northern cliques start fighting c.1920 really that there is a need to really expand the army just from a defensive mindset. Hence going from 3 divisions to 10 by 1925 because historically well your corporal and sergeant idea is basically one of the things the northern cliques did to rapidly expand their armies.

... which on top of the equipment procurement problems (especially the arms embargo in 1918, and just finances before) caused major qualitative issues. But we will get there, where there is an expansion, and land holding and eventually what basically amounts to nation building.

ATP · Sep 4, 2021

Imperator Pax said:
Well as for the Czech legion things in the Russian Civil War will be a bit different here, once we get to 1918. And there are Polish expatriates in China in the twenties. Among others

As to the 30k thats roughly about troop strength for the cadre forces in 1918, where it will be sitting at Three divisions. Part of that is the matter of needing the equipment for those troops and also having Xian as a city as a recruiting base (its 1918 the US is in the war now so a lot of effort is shifting towards greater local production for complex machinery). This basically also represents besides just Xian having what amounts to having two and a half provinces worth of land, even if Shansi isn't very valuable land according to most people in 1918. Its really only when the only big northern cliques start fighting c.1920 really that there is a need to really expand the army just from a defensive mindset. Hence going from 3 divisions to 10 by 1925 because historically well your corporal and sergeant idea is basically one of the things the northern cliques did to rapidly expand their armies.

... which on top of the equipment procurement problems (especially the arms embargo in 1918, and just finances before) caused major qualitative issues. But we will get there, where there is an expansion, and land holding and eventually what basically amounts to nation building.

10 dyvisions in 1925 - then you could not grab any bigger part of China before that.But - it is good strategy,your SI first care about economy,then made bigger military.Unless idiots who thought that mass of peasants would gave them edge.
Which was possible also in Europe - i read memories of polish aristocrat Hipolit Korwin Milewski,who was told by russian officer in 1914 then they mobilised 5 million of soldiers,but asked when they all get rifles.Russian answered,that in good time.In Reality it was 15 months,and russian/very good/ artillery till 1917 never had enough ammo.So in one artillery regiment only one battery was used.

About Japan - they are peculiar country,becouse they had big cities and literate people without capitalism.As far as i knew,nobody quess how they manage it.

Weber and capitalism - he forget,that it was created in catholic Nort Italy,and reason why other catholic countries do not followed was not religion but first feudalism and then absolute monarchs.If England had one,there would be no capitalism,too.

Coal instead of oil - good choice,cars used coal was as good as those using oil till at least 1930.All difference is in air forces,you could not use coal there.Well,germans almost made ramjet Lippish P.13 using coal during WW2,but you have no technology for that.But - till 1930 you do not use bigger air forces anyway.

10 dyvisions in 1925 - when Japan attack,you could have 30-40 without killing economy,which mean that you would repel them.Especially considering their bayonett fetish.

Imperator Pax · Sep 4, 2021

ATP said:
10 dyvisions in 1925 - then you could not grab any bigger part of China before that.But - it is good strategy,your SI first care about economy,then made bigger military.Unless idiots who thought that mass of peasants would gave them edge.
Which was possible also in Europe - i read memories of polish aristocrat Hipolit Korwin Milewski,who was told by russian officer in 1914 then they mobilised 5 million of soldiers,but asked when they all get rifles.Russian answered,that in good time.In Reality it was 15 months,and russian/very good/ artillery till 1917 never had enough ammo.So in one artillery regiment only one battery was used.

About Japan - they are peculiar country,becouse they had big cities and literate people without capitalism.As far as i knew,nobody quess how they manage it.

Weber and capitalism - he forget,that it was created in catholic Nort Italy,and reason why other catholic countries do not followed was not religion but first feudalism and then absolute monarchs.If England had one,there would be no capitalism,too.

Coal instead of oil - good choice,cars used coal was as good as those using oil till at least 1930.All difference is in air forces,you could not use coal there.Well,germans almost made ramjet Lippish P.13 using coal during WW2,but you have no technology for that.But - till 1930 you do not use bigger air forces anyway.

10 dyvisions in 1925 - when Japan attack,you could have 30-40 without killing economy,which mean that you would repel them.Especially considering their bayonett fetish.

In 1937 Xian will still be fielding roughly 25 Divisions, ten of which are a part of the National Guard Army / Reserves and covering If I'm remembering my notes for that part of the timeline roughly six provinces (counting Tibet, and Xinjiang), but holding Shensi (Shanxi province today) with Xian also oil reserves to be tapped but obviously in 1913 (here) thats not an option or known yet, that only happens in a few years, but as to the division matter, once the war starts mobilization goes like this (again this is somewhat addressed in the behind the scenes stuff).

Xian recalls her reserves to the colors
organizes defenses in western Zhili, ahead of an evacuation. (And what I mean by this is that technically even Xian proper is at the far edge of Japanese carrier aviation, and certainly land based bombers)
This marks the transition to wartime footing and the eventual standing up of additional divisions the army expands to 30 Divisions and the other two service branches are expanded to on paper count five divisions. so yeah your math is basically similar to my own, where in 1940 comes around you have forty divisions under arms with an expansion after 41 (because in manpower terms) we're talking about a polity a nation by 1940 that has a population that is technically larger than the soviet union of the same time frame. (and by wars end will be sitting at something like sixty divisions on paper). [Again, China has in 1914 about 400 million people living there.]

Now admittedly divisions here, amount to 10 to 15 thousand men, we're talking British size divisions not Japan or the US square divisions where you have in some cases fifteen thousand to upwards of thirty thousand men (though I am given to understand even in Japan the latter was more a result of attaching brigades on an ad hoc basis). and also in that number the 1940 number of divisions thats counting the Air Force's divisions in the total. [Admittedly that includes, radio operations, communications, military police and the rest not just fighters or bomber units. That is to say the allocated divisions in that count are the whole service arm in total. and of course what is on paper does not necessarily reflect units in service. The reserves are probably two hundred thousand men, something like a third of the army overall. ]
--

ATP · Sep 5, 2021

In 1925 Poland made 12 year plan to develop Army.We would have 60 dyvisions,5 mechanized dyvisions,6 calvary dyvisions,20 battalion of tanks ,2300 planes and small navy.Unfortunatelly after 1926 putch military was wrecked by dilletants.
But,it was plausible,maybe not in 12 years,but,let say,till 1942.So,China could do the same.

P.S what about d"discovering" PAW 600 about 1930 ? it was german AT guns using 81 mm barrels/2 or 3/ it would be cheaper then normal AT,let you made the same ammo,and more importantly - you could knock medium tank with it.Not important against japaneese toys,but soviets if they try something.

Imperator Pax · Sep 11, 2021

The New Year
Part 1

It was monday morning, three days before Christmas.

The last two weeks of the year were always the worst, and of course technically with the way post was he'd be receiving letters penned before Christmas that wouldn't get in until probably the end of January. If not for the threat of Bai Lang they might have made a show of going down to Shanghai for New Years again, but that was certainly off the table.

Tietsin would be the farthest they'd go this year, and more of the parties and gatherings would be in Peking. Missionaries prattle aside the season's gatherings had nothing to do with Christ, or converts, the current crowds in the Glory Hotel were a sign of Old China changing. Changes that had started during the Qing, and had slowly reached even Manchu princes before the ancien regime had crumbled. It was fashionable to go to big soirees, and most of them happened at this time of the year. As had become normal the throngs of people crossed every race found in China.

Shinozaki sat his cafe au lait to one side. "Minister Hayashi will be at the Christmas party," He remarked in crisp English. One more voice in the language that was the most commonly spoken in the hotel. Everyone spoke English to one another in the building, and that was true of similar western establishments in Peking, or Tietsin, or further south in Shanghai, or Canton.

"I'd like to think that Zhang's promotion to field marshal is enough of a salve." He doubted the pigtail general was prepared to make much of a fuss. "Unless you expect Hayashi to try and bait him into a provocation." Shinozaki frowned but didn't vocally confirm that. Hayashi might have been samurai by blood, but he was a career bureaucrat and civil official who's entire political existence ran counter to old man Yamagata's ideas about how a government should act... of course that partly because the old man loathed the idea of political parties, and it was no secret he distrusted Hayashi's handling of foreign affairs... but the old man's power wasn't infinite, and there had to be compromises between the various cliques.

"The minister has gone beyond his remit in supplying those arms to a bandit, especially a bandit with such uncouth political leanings."

... he had to stymie the urge to point out that Hayashi, and Hirobumi had both done similar things in the hermit kingdom... since of course it wasn't as if certain Americans hadn't also been playing the game, "The game is the game Shinozaki." He replied reaching for his black coffee, "Hayashi makes mistakes and leaves traces, but I don't think we'll find any direct telegraphs between the two." Duan Qirui and the Beiyang had now definitively divided Bai Lang's troops the southern most force that had been nearing Nanjing had been forced increasingly further south, and towards Canton, and would probably keep going south. "Its no secret that Tsai O had Japanese connections, and we both know him and Bai Lang studied together in Japan with a clique of other cadets."

"They have diverged politically."

Allen had his doubts Yuan had directly ordered Song Jiaoren's death, but that didn't preclude Zhao from thinking he'd be doing Yuan a favor. Yuan's culpability in Luzhen's death in 1911 was a less murky accusation, it was less of stretch, "They've both have their grievances," Tsai was more conservative, or at least was more inclined to moderate his political broadsheets than Bai Lang was, and right now proving they were communicating was near to impossible. "And Tsai still has ties to Japan." Yuan's accusations regarding the expatriate community in China weren't exactly unfounded. "Don't get me wrong, Bai Lang has support in Canada, and the states we know that. I wouldn't be surprised if he had some kind of support from the Russians." Which would bear looking into. "John Jordan is right though the break down of the banking consortium risks another scramble for Africa here."

"And that is undesirable." Shinozaki agreed finishing his sentence.

Japan loaned money to China. Banks like Yokohama Specie bank weren't the only involved, but Japan as a nation took loans from the United States, and from Great Britain. Japan's alliance with the latter included contracts with titan esque firms like Vickers, who had built Kongou. "We're tied up with Mitsui, both with them directly, and through our own ties with Vickers. Mitsui is hardly the only firm we do business with." No, a stable China meant a market everyone could participate in, that was the whole crux of Washington's open door argument, and it was an agreement that the British were on board with, and it seemed most of the time that the Europeans did... but he supposed once bitten twice shy the Japanese still remembered port Arthur and the triple intervention at the very least.

Allen stood up. He understood, could understand those international connections the best, and perhaps it was because they were involved in those dynamics of industry. Perhaps that was beyond Shinozaki because he lacked that frame of reference. The young second son os a samurai family wasn't old enough to be involved yet in those sorts of ventures. Or even if it wasn't a question of age Allen understood the economic side better than Reinsch's patent insistence on international law for the laws sake, and for agreements regardless of other incentive.

Bill swaggered through the door, "Ah shit I thought you hadn't heard me with all the yammering going on out there." The texan drawled.

"We all still have work to do." Allen replied.

"Early Christmas present." Bill remarked tossing the wood case to Shinozaki. "As to work, I got a cable from back home." The army had been south texas for near on two years now due to Mexico's clusterfuck.

"Villa?"

"He's got brass ones I'll give him that."

--
The rail whistle blew, and the engine huffed steam powered, coal fired, and the locomotive took down the track. This particular train was one that cut west, up into the plateau that was Shansi, it would eventually take a junction north to Taiyuan, and there offload its equipment for farms in the basin. An investment that most people didn't see the point of. The argument some more astute observers, just wealthy merchants, would have argued was the self interested one of investing in the more northern city of the province, Tatung. Maybe in time, but it wasn't the banks Allen wanted a stake in, but the agricultural land fed by the Fen river.

Shansi though had fallen on centuries of neglect. One a proud portion of the Kingdom of Wei it had been forgotten on the periphery of the Qing dynasty. A great shame given that it should have been a province the invited investment and influx of capital... but it was too far from the coast, and the foreign concessions... and like plenty of other places it had its share of bandits.

That was why they were making the investment. In the hopes that Yan would return the favor, and that this would benefit everyone in the end. Shinozaki's files had included the governor of Shansi, and the five years he had spent in Japan. Reports that were by and large favorable from his instructors, Yan was doctrinally in line with the Imperial Military Academy from which he had graduated from in 1909. Yan's writing while academically sparse supported the doctrinal reasoning of Nagoaka. It was interesting reading to be sure, though of course Shinozaki had not brought the files for the cadre, it would be embarrassing to admit to spying on ones nominal allies. The files had to exist of course, and Shinozaki had actually blushed at the notion Reinsch had requested the cadre memberships service jackets, and academy records.

Yan was in simple terms a spencerian. Solely viewable as a personal flaw was the fact the governor of the province had been on good terms and quite fond of Ito Hirobumi. That was something to which Allen could overlook, as Yan's own recollection and participation in an anti-boxer militia highlighted enough of shared sensibilities. Shansi would hopefully prove a good investment. Farms first, and then they'd diversify, probably eventually into precious metals like silver, and gold.

His musings were interrupted as Cole threw in beside him, "Well lets hope we get the chance to finish this wolf hunt and we can go back to what we should be doing."

"Agreed." He replied.

"I got the blind set up." Cole said continuing his hunting commentary, "Just need Percy to deliver the rest and let him come to us." Because of course if they advertised enough, well they were in part banking on Bai Lang's pride, and then taking him in a double envelopment. "Honan, and Anhui is crawling with Beiyang troops." Which of course Bai was probably doing his best to flip and turn against Yuan Shikai with offers of better pay and benefits. Those sorts of inclinations were far from unheard, but realistically unlikely to yield much in the north were Beiyang regulars received regular, and steady income. Payment in silver was all well and good, but bandit life was unpredictable, and the bigger danger were modern troops who had revolutionary sentiments to begin with, even if greed wasn't to be dismissed.

"I've already started drafting and proposals for the business side of things," The vickers guns meant originally for Spain would hopefully be here in a month, and from there they could, "Cao Kun has said he's passed along what we know about Sow Gorge, and last that we heard the garrison there was about five hundred men. If Qirui, or that Feng guy wants a shot they'll try after the New Year."

"I heard you put your hands on some Carcanos?"

"Yeah, I shipped them to Griswold his tinkerers already have a solution."

"To?"

"The ammo problem, he's going to rebarrel them to 35 and I'll issue them out to the artillery section." Cole replied.

He looked into the gray afternoon sky, "Try and keep a low profile in Tietsin Cole, its not Percy specifically, but some of your fellows probably make Edward Grey a little nervous."

"Which ones?" The other man questioned, "This the paddies, or boers?" Cole shrugged and tipped the brim of his hat with smirk, "Don't worry brother John, I wont bring some yankee bag of hot air in from New York to pass the plate around for Sein Finn. I'll make sure none of my guys get on the soap box."

"I'll appreciate that." The truth was he didn't care all that much. If the Irish wanted independence that was fine but most the guns and money and the biggest voices in the movement were Americans, and a little more concerning were the socialist and anarchist firebrands who'd been exiled to the continent. Percy was quick to try and play that up, and dismiss all of Irelands problems as rabble rousing stirred up from persons abroad, and that wasn't true... but there was enough truth there it would complicate buying from the British.

--
Commentary: So it is the end of 1913, and with world war 1 around the corner the British Empire is basically at its height. Yes after ww1 it will reach its greatest territorial expanse, but the Empire before the war was already showing structural instability. What I mean by this is partially demonstrated by some of the above. The alliance network tied Britain to foreign conflicts, in much the same way as it dragged other nations into it. Most of Europe was convinced that ww1 would be a short war, only a few german generals recognized it wouldn't be, which in hindsight, with the benefit of looking back it seems odd, but in recent memory Europe had either avoided, or had several short wars with minimal or even no changes in territory both inside and outside of Europe proper. Now some people classify the history of the British Empire as in this period either second or the third Empire (Obviously the First is interpreted to from roughly the 17th century to the loss of the American Colonies, while the second is sometimes measured through the napoleonic wars until or through the rest of 19th century).

This is important because again Europe industrialized late. France especially was not a particularly potent industrial power stymied for a number of reasons despite going on to carve out a much larger colonial empire than say Germany. German steel manufacturing among other industries had over taken England proper by the latter half of the 19th century in manufacuturing and both were pale in comparison to the Industrial Juggernaut that the United States had emerged as. More than that though the bank of England was now being out competed by, and as world war 1 would see Wall Street is what permitted the Entente War Effort to its victory, along with American industry, and not the AEF. The AEF played a role but it was not the systemic one in achieving victory, but economics is boring and unsexy.

However the power of US monetary influence already existed in the late 19th century as far as england was concerned, and this shaped British policy, particularly in Ireland where effort was made to shape policy in Ireland to avoid causing an incident with the US (and its powerful Irish-American lobby) and this is long long before stuff like NORAID.

ATP · Sep 11, 2021

Germans belived that they would take Paris in 40 days/and they could if they do not fucked their plan/,according to Denikin russian belived in victory in 4 months.Which was impossible.They could take Easy Prussia and part of A-H,but that would be all.And french belived in their red pants.What they were,orcs ?
About irish - very realistic aproach - both american do not supporting them openly and Engalnd stopping atrocities there becouse of USA.

Imperator Pax · Sep 18, 2021

The New Year
Part 2

Hina had shed her fedora and settled into the chair until one of her maids had prepared drinks, and then withdrew back and out of the way until she was needed. The fact the woman was even in the room though said plenty. "I was under the impression that business was good." The hotel business, this was hardly Hina's only hotel after all, but all the fuss down south didn't really seemed to have effected Peking in the first place... not from an international travel perspective. "Is this about," She dismissed the maid before he could continue, and he raised an eyebrow. "Is that a yes?" Japan officially gobbled up the old hermit kingdom in August of 1910 not quite a year after Hirobumi's oh so tragic death. Not that his death would have prevented, the Japanese had been trying to claim Korea since the eighteen seventies... or the fifteen hundreds according to some people.

She didn't respond and sat there, so he sat back and reached for the cup. They waited. "It took time to confirm, but as was suspected Thomas had support from the French."

If that was intended to be shocking, or some kind of revelation it wasn't. The only thing potentially surprising was that they could prove it, "Well we knew it was probably them." Not that he was complaining. France had been Russia's ally for a long time, and Thomas's ties to France weren't exactly a secret... and had been something the Japanese had delicately stepped around in the trial framing as solely a criminal matter. The Russian pressure during the trial had always been curious, but that could have been French influence or just outright sympathy for the man. It wouldn't really effect England though, the English had been fait accompli to Japan's annexation to Korea... "Do you mind if I ask how confirmation was achieved." It wasn't really a question, he very much expected one way or another an answer that he wasn't going to like. "Ae-sin?"

She shook her head, and he felt his eyebrow raise again, "Would you like to guess again? I am sure we can play this game a while yet, we have hours before the party."

He ran through a list of names in his head. No one immediately sprang to mind, not with Eugene back in Washington, Ishida was supposed to be in Osaka... at least last that he'd heard regarding the man... but in the scope of things... she was right it could have been anyone. Russian and France were allied, and collaborated in their mutual interests in Asia. The French paid Russian arms merchants to support groups that they didn't want to be seen directly supporting, which of course said something given the French's willingness to supply arms in southern China before the Qing had fallen.

... the idea that this information had come out of Shanghai made sense. France and Germany had been slow to industrialize with it only really starting after Napoleons murderous rampage across Europe, and of course the French were even now perpetually trying to chase the hey day of the imperial might. Catholic reapproachment under Nappy and the French Empire, had of course emphasized that politics made strange bed fellows. Shanghai's French quarter had every sort of revolutionary in it. Anarchists, Socialists, and whoe ever else broke bread with Royalists and Dominionists and the lot, and under the French auspice had access to arms from Europe that the French were loath to let anyone stop them from bringing in. That kind of barely controlled chaos though had been normal, the French were largely just seen as hands off, and Shanghai was a gangsters paradise anyway.

He stood up and started to pace. "It could be nothing, or it could piece of the puzzle we didn't realize was even missing." Hayashi had been in Europe for a couple years, sent abroad as a promotion that was also no doubt designed to keep him out of trouble, or from causing trouble... but it was just as likely that his time in Italy had allowed him insight and information about the European powers. The Arisakas Bai Lang had received might very well have nothing at all to deal with the situation. The French supplying funds for arms through the Russians in Manchuria was a poorly kept secret at best, and even if it wasn't they might well have been meant for checking French influence in the far south of the country. Chess was a game with two players, but the real world wasn't nearly as clean as a nice walnut board.
--
The elder Forrest watched the party unfold. They would be basically going to one of these a night through probably first couple of days of the new year. The amount of French pop by itself though was probably an eyesore of a receipt, never mind all the rest. It seemed like every year though since the fall of the Qing that these soirees in Peking had gotten more and more extravagant. The old man sipped his drink, "I'll admit I hadn't considered where the French might have been involved either. Hirobumi's assassination though, and the French involvement with the bandits," The Righteous Army, or armies now given that they were a collection of disparate and politically distinct cliques, "will probably amount to nothing."

Which was also true, or at least probably... the truth was it was a reminder that there was just one more variable in the equation. "Unless they start shooting people in the streets." Or the train stations again.

"Its Shanghai," They already do that, went unsaid but heard all the same. The old man didn't care, he'd filed the information and it would make its way back to Washington but the squabbles between the French and Japanese were likely to be an entanglement that the new President had no interest in becoming involved with. Such un gentlemanly behavior would have caused a ruckus in the halls of power back east. The elder Forrest had other things to contend with, "You're sure Isaburo isn't a threat, there are concerns."

He wondered what was going on. "Can you elaborate on that?" The truth was he stood by his earlier comments. So long as he could handle the bureaucratic matters, and play with trains Isaburo would have been just as happy interacting with other people at a bare minimum. It was a distinction between father and son, Aritomo had no qualms about looking someone in the eye, and maybe it was the fact Isaburo was uncomfortable... probably thought it was rude or something, to do that... Isaburo had never been in the army either, which had to seem strange to whoever it was writing the old man.

"The entire reason for the mess in Korea was the allegation that it could be used to invade across the straits. Whatever poppycock of improving Korea said afterword, doesn't matter if its true or not, that was the reason. The opposite is true. Isaburo's trains as you put it, so long as they can run can deliver hundreds of thousands of Japanese soldiers into Northern China." As opposed to goods being shipped from China to ports to carry them across the straits. "Isaburo seems to expect as much funding as Formosa receives, which ordinarily wouldn't be a concern by itself."

Or rather in the preceding administration it wouldn't have been a concern, because banking was normal there, "So this whole matter has nothing to do with Isaburo, and its everything on Peking."

"You can't know that. Modernizing the hermit kingdom means Japan can support expeditionary forces in Manchuria, and its no secret they want the Russians out of there. Washington wants leverage to keep everyone on policy for an open door China, which of course was contingent on Japan and France not scrambling for territorial concessions... or anyone else for that matter." This came from Bryan then, the tone, and the fact it was from Washington, told him it had nothing to do with the new guy. This was coming from the US capital, which meant that this was exactly like the British problem with Jordan and Grey. "Us stepping back from the banking is causing a rift in the state department that is poorly timed. "

That threw him for a loop. Not so much its contents as the statement. The British banking consortium and the US one turning finicky were for different reasons of course, but it made the whole international consortium a nervous wreck. They were the two largest suppliers of capital to the program of loans after all. Wilson's position that the US had little purpose in the affair, or at least the government didn't of course would have opposition from the state department... "So where does that leave Reinsch?"

"Right now, I think he's about to speak," Allen hadn't even noticed the minister, and frankly the salutations from the midwesterner to the assembled mixed race crowd was near to perfunctorary... and the man's holiday speech would have been right at home to the attendants of the university. Everyone politely applauded all the same Reinsch's talk of international law, and fellowship in the christian season. There was a noticeable difference from the way John Jordan had addressed the gathering an hour earlier, and everyone had to know that.

--
Commentary

... and now for some humor with a brief look forward to ww2 from the perspective of a British Gentleman, "The northern chinese are a martial people. Xian is a city with industrious fellows, but they're the Prussian Junkers of the orient, and they well I say, when they speak english they sound as if they're from Texas. A martial people through and through I would hardly be surprised to hear one declare 'you are courting death, sir.' This unpleasantness with the Japanese demonstrates this well enough the Northern Chinese grind infantry charges to grist with the weight of guns..." .c 1938.

And now we discuss the great game, which is generally epitomized as the struggle between the Russian Empire, and the British in Asia, specifically Afghanistan and its neighbors, but more can more broadly be thought of as referring to the massive and complex arrangement of economic and military factors of Imperial power as a whole including the scramble for Africa, the banana wars, and of course China. The above quote, and the segment today relate to commentary on foreign matters. The above quote is called humor because while it might be taken as complimentary its something of a backhanded compliment, Prussian Junkers is not a complimentary statement from most Englishmen, and of course its in the vein of comparison to a European power. Speaking English in an American accent of course something that would be somewhat poorly received by the English. and since this is 38 he's comparing the conflict to WW1 in a way, saying its being fought like the Great War.

But in the more current matter this is an era where the US foreign policy is confused, and naïve at times. Reinsch's actions in 1914 act like WW1 isn't even happening at times (and yes the US isn't a belligerent in 1914, Wilson's first administration would go on to campaign about keeping the country out of the war) literally going on holiday while the siege of Tsingtao is happening that fall. Reinsch goes sightseeing in southern china its a supremely strange situation where you have John Jordan's like running the sky is falling, but the US ambassador is visiting temples and having a merry old time. He actually writes about this, and is fascinated by this as an academic... pre war its certainly somewhat excusable you know go to tea, have conversations with other academics kind of things, he just feels out of his depth. He spent a lot of time lecturing on international law, without really grasping practical affairs. Like again to compare Reinsch to Jordan, Jordan didn't like the bankers but he still recognized that whether he disliked it or not it was clearly in the British Empire's interest to make the situation work. Like John Jordan is indignant is offended, is upset by Japan's behavior, Reinsch is like 'but why is Japan doing this?'

ATP · Sep 18, 2021

According to what i read,Japan really treated chineese on Taiwan well.To the point they prefered them to Czang after he take over.
Korea - not so well,but not bad either.
And USA was still Republic - Wall Street bankster made Federal reserve in 1913,but it was only indirect control.That is why they need provocations like Lusitania to get public on their side when they wonted join war.
And that comment from 1938 was fun - becouse prussian started WW1 with infrantry charges,too.Difference was - they had no red pants like french,sl must be slower !

Imperator Pax · Sep 19, 2021

ATP said:
According to what i read,Japan really treated chineese on Taiwan well.To the point they prefered them to Czang after he take over.
Korea - not so well,but not bad either.
And USA was still Republic - Wall Street bankster made Federal reserve in 1913,but it was only indirect control.That is why they need provocations like Lusitania to get public on their side when they wonted join war.
And that comment from 1938 was fun - becouse prussian started WW1 with infrantry charges,too.Difference was - they had no red pants like french,sl must be slower !

Taiwan really lucked out on their first couple of governors, who genuinely seemed to have believed that they were doing something good. The other thing is that Formosa, or Taiwan had never really been a part of China proper, like the Qing had been constantly putting down rebellions there (well and everywhere else) by the local tribesmen and been trying to encourage Han migration which, didn't work exactly how they wanted it to, and also the first and second opium wars effected the situation (hence the name formosa becoming common), so when the end of the century rolls around and Japan gets the island Taiwan actually gets treated as part of the empire with schools and direct administration in a way that as a qing tributary they didn't get (you had the governor of the colony going to the Diet hey I need money for the colony to electrify the island, and we're talking a lot of money.) Korea on the other hand had been divided into pro japanese and pro chinese camps (and then later emerging Korean nationalists) during the same time period so you had plenty of Koreans who liked Japan, liked what they were doing, you had those who didn't (plenty of the nobility were like, no this shit isn't cool), and then you had Korean nationalism which tied in really heavily with Christianity in Korea as a result of missionary work which just made it more confusing. THe problem was that unlike in Taiwan the annexation was not as smooth, and the crack down on the existing Korean nobility created a lot of bad blood despite plenty of the korean nobility prospering under the rule. (and in simple answer the modern Chaebol are basically Zaibatsu Korean edition.) Taiwan especially in the earlier years had good governors and who were invested in making the colony modern and working, while in Korea you had a lot more political feuding and people fighting where the army had to come in and do stuff to maintain order.

Wall Street, JP Morgan and a number of other firms were already in the international loan business (obviously, we've already talked about the US part of the banking Consortium for China) and was very quick to loan money to the UK, France, and Russia, which well Wilson was already on election to the Chinese loans was like 'I don't know if we should be involved in this sort of thing', so he really didn't like the US providing loans, and weapons munitions and other war supplies to one side, and the Luisitania was definitively carrying munitions when she was torpedoed, and may or may not have been intentionally put into a course that would make her bait for U-boats that were known to be operating. That would however had been a British Admiralty decision rather than the US one. ANd if not Luisitania it would have been some other ship unrestricted submarine warfare was a dumb lashing out decision, at least as dumb as the infamous blank check to austria hungary.

The outbreak of war with Germany just gave WIlson the excuse to 'well since we're at war it should be the US government writing loans to foreign powers rather than wall street' which is why the US would eventually write off a bunch of loans to the entente after the war (because France pitched a temper tantrum about repaying the loans).

The British Gentleman's comment is really one of those british-isms, and the person in question is framing it as oh look they're fighting ww1 all over again when they're really not. (This is kind of endemic of a lot of the 'official' western commentary about the war in that story, where the British and US foreign services are making comments like this, and this based off of historically how they made comments about not just China, but also Japan, and elsewhere.) Really we'll get there when we get there, and like I said hopefully I will get through June of 1914 before the end of this calendar year.

Cause, it'll be this chapter covering through the first couple days of the new year (1914), next chapter will cover well among other things stuff like the fallout from the Vickers Siemens crisis, and new weapons arriving from Europe, but also the start of Bai Lang's west ward march first back to his home base, and then further west. Then there should be three more multi part chapters and the epilogue for this story. Then after that next year we'll do the time skip to 1916 with ww1 being two years old and China's warlord era now very clearly underway. That will really mark the process of this province, and this province and this province are all part of htis clique, and that clique has those provinces, and that clique has those provinces, etc, and then you get some warlords going I need more troops all my sergeants are now captains army inflation and the Manchu restoration and so on...

and what I will probably do is that the Romanoff excursion will probably serve as the epilogue and it will be picked up after ww1 has officially ended either with the 'Czech emigres', or possibly the fallout from the versailles treaty. Then that will probably cover through early interwar years, the early twenties, before we time skip for the northern expedition starting in 25. But thats more tentative and just a rough outline.

ATP · Sep 19, 2021

Do not forget getting as many as possible engineers from Russia,A-H and Germany.Holland get Fokker manufacture,you have 4 other german and 3 A-H to choose.A-H had stronger engines,so engines get from them.

Imperator Pax · Sep 19, 2021

ATP said:
Do not forget getting as many as possible engineers from Russia,A-H and Germany.Holland get Fokker manufacture,you have 4 other german and 3 A-H to choose.A-H had stronger engines,so engines get from them.

Yeah, post war mid twenties there is a fair amount of skilled labor emigration from the defeated countries, and even 'now' Cole is sitting on a fair amount of 'south african' mining talent since that is his business little area of the cadre, talking about going into mining gold and silver. and once the twenties start is when China historically had less access to international markets and there was domestic pressure to do a lot of local production, anyway, which of course means needing experts, which Xian's case will mean experts for running schools rather than factory floor managers (22-25), and then once Chiang tries his march north will transition to we need to produce actual aircraft for the air force and the air force will actually start building up.

Zhang Tsolin tried to do this, he brought in a bunch of different austrian engineers, and was like 'i need a rifle factory, armored cars, make me planes, etc).

ATP · Sep 20, 2021

Imperator Pax said:
Yeah, post war mid twenties there is a fair amount of skilled labor emigration from the defeated countries, and even 'now' Cole is sitting on a fair amount of 'south african' mining talent since that is his business little area of the cadre, talking about going into mining gold and silver. and once the twenties start is when China historically had less access to international markets and there was domestic pressure to do a lot of local production, anyway, which of course means needing experts, which Xian's case will mean experts for running schools rather than factory floor managers (22-25), and then once Chiang tries his march north will transition to we need to produce actual aircraft for the air force and the air force will actually start building up.

Zhang Tsolin tried to do this, he brought in a bunch of different austrian engineers, and was like 'i need a rifle factory, armored cars, make me planes, etc).

All doable goals.And you do not yet tanks or heavy bombers yet,only armored cars , fighters and recon planes.

Imperator Pax · Sep 20, 2021

ATP said:
All doable goals.And you do not yet tanks or heavy bombers yet,only armored cars , fighters and recon planes.

Historically Zhang had tanks in fact he bought a lot of the interwar Vickers tanks which is something that will be sourced by Xian as well, because working example of the earlier three man turret is a pretty big leap forward in terms of technology, and that was early to mid twenties, and yet plenty of people didn't go to that until much later. OTL, for a guy who didn't have a lot of formal schooling Zhang Tsolin knew when to shut up and listen to his staff, and bought a lot of good stuff, invested in local production and I think he's a good example of where a northern warlord could have done this and what could have been.

The cadre just has the advantage of having a lot more capital, especially once they get the Tsar's gold bullion reserves, but thqat will be after ww1. In terms of timeframe this story originally started from snippets taking place in 1916 so a lot of the tech for pre war is kind of set in place by what was 'canon' in the post National Protection War snippets hence only really using tractors to maneuver artillery or putting machine guns and sheet metal on cars. Like next year once we're into coverage of stuff in calendar year 1917 and 18 there will be a lot more to do with the industry and the independence to lead into what will provide for in the future fast tanks and heavy bombers

ATP · Sep 21, 2021

Imperator Pax said:
Historically Zhang had tanks in fact he bought a lot of the interwar Vickers tanks which is something that will be sourced by Xian as well, because working example of the earlier three man turret is a pretty big leap forward in terms of technology, and that was early to mid twenties, and yet plenty of people didn't go to that until much later. OTL, for a guy who didn't have a lot of formal schooling Zhang Tsolin knew when to shut up and listen to his staff, and bought a lot of good stuff, invested in local production and I think he's a good example of where a northern warlord could have done this and what could have been.

The cadre just has the advantage of having a lot more capital, especially once they get the Tsar's gold bullion reserves, but thqat will be after ww1. In terms of timeframe this story originally started from snippets taking place in 1916 so a lot of the tech for pre war is kind of set in place by what was 'canon' in the post National Protection War snippets hence only really using tractors to maneuver artillery or putting machine guns and sheet metal on cars. Like next year once we're into coverage of stuff in calendar year 1917 and 18 there will be a lot more to do with the industry and the independence to lead into what will provide for in the future fast tanks and heavy bombers

They would get tsar gold ? good,in OTL Lenin take practically all,gave 100t germans and rest sold Wall street for war materials and luxure food/for him&friends/In ended in 1921,but he still manage win cyvil war thanks to that.
Without that gold soviets would be smaller and weaker.They could even lost to white or green! /peasants/
But,after your SI take that gold for himself,Wall Street which supported Lenin putch would become his enemies.And use every occasion to attack him.

Imperator Pax · Sep 21, 2021

ATP said:
They would get tsar gold ? good,in OTL Lenin take practically all,gave 100t germans and rest sold Wall street for war materials and luxure food/for him&friends/In ended in 1921,but he still manage win cyvil war thanks to that.
Without that gold soviets would be smaller and weaker.They could even lost to white or green! /peasants/
But,after your SI take that gold for himself,Wall Street which supported Lenin putch would become his enemies.And use every occasion to attack him.

I disagree with the notion that Lenin could have lost the civil war without the gold, Lenin's big advantage (well besides the tremendous boon he enjoyed from the Whites being a fractious lot) was holding pretty much all the important industrial territory in the west that wasn't under the German boot (which of course, Brest Litovsk helped keep that in the early days of the civil war). Lenin, and later Stalin were against basically taking on the debts that Imperial Russia had accrued with Wall Street but they also wanted the benefits of stuff wall street could provide including the capital for machine tooling (early on basically getting a couple fully tooled and built factories paid for by loans to the Imperial government, which Lenin totally said he wasn't going to honor... and then that kind of waffled after a while. As the expression goes, politics makes for strange bedfellows).

Of course in this timeline Lenin dies a little earlier, he makes a much less effective recovery from the shooting at the train station, and then suffers the historical seizure and that kills him early. Which in its own way prolongs the civil war, and why there is a Rump White Russian state in the south on the map that survives into the cold war. Also causes Stalin to do his ha ha Cavalry spiel and take power pretty clearly, because Stalin was a more effective military reformer and leader than Trotsky, even though Trotsky's ideas were occasionally more practical. (Boiling down to Stalin being better at execution).

Autumn of Empires Map 1.
Height of the Japanese Empire
Mainland Asia c. 1942

A quick and dirty map, for AoE representing c. 1942 showing roughly the extent of the Japanese Empire in Asia at its height. This includes her puppet states, such as Thailand. It also shows the various major British Colonial holdings in Asia. The Soviet Union is of course in Red, and the cyan is the rump White Russian South.

Now admittedly the above map is one that was done for ease using modern OTL borders for reference so its not completely accurate, but basically, when we get to the end of WW1 and the Russian Civil War the logistical, financial strain starts to set in, and of course in the twenties that will also mean a lot of British Inner War politics.

ATP · Sep 21, 2021

Imperator Pax said:
I disagree with the notion that Lenin could have lost the civil war without the gold, Lenin's big advantage (well besides the tremendous boon he enjoyed from the Whites being a fractious lot) was holding pretty much all the important industrial territory in the west that wasn't under the German boot (which of course, Brest Litovsk helped keep that in the early days of the civil war). Lenin, and later Stalin were against basically taking on the debts that Imperial Russia had accrued with Wall Street but they also wanted the benefits of stuff wall street could provide including the capital for machine tooling (early on basically getting a couple fully tooled and built factories paid for by loans to the Imperial government, which Lenin totally said he wasn't going to honor... and then that kind of waffled after a while. As the expression goes, politics makes for strange bedfellows).

Of course in this timeline Lenin dies a little earlier, he makes a much less effective recovery from the shooting at the train station, and then suffers the historical seizure and that kills him early. Which in its own way prolongs the civil war, and why there is a Rump White Russian state in the south on the map that survives into the cold war. Also causes Stalin to do his ha ha Cavalry spiel and take power pretty clearly, because Stalin was a more effective military reformer and leader than Trotsky, even though Trotsky's ideas were occasionally more practical. (Boiling down to Stalin being better at execution).

Autumn of Empires Map 1.
Height of the Japanese Empire
Mainland Asia c. 1942

A quick and dirty map, for AoE representing c. 1942 showing roughly the extent of the Japanese Empire in Asia at its height. This includes her puppet states, such as Thailand. It also shows the various major British Colonial holdings in Asia. The Soviet Union is of course in Red, and the cyan is the rump White Russian South.

Now admittedly the above map is one that was done for ease using modern OTL borders for reference so its not completely accurate, but basically, when we get to the end of WW1 and the Russian Civil War the logistical, financial strain starts to set in, and of course in the twenties that will also mean a lot of British Inner War politics.

It make sense.Whites could never decide who is right general to lead ,and green was even worst - they were most popular,but almost every commander was for himself.Unlees you send them white/green Napoleon,they were doomed to lost.

Imperator Pax · Sep 25, 2021

The New Year Part 3

He had not quite been ambushed by Rockhill, and the old man had given him time to make rounds at the Christmas gala. He had of course been expecting it, and the man's characterization of Reinsch as naive, and unprepared for the political realities were painfully accurate. The man's time, and official position before the change in administration had been a careful balancing act. He was after all the man who had drafted the 'Open Door' Policy that was the cornerstone of US policy. "Reinsch has a painful fascination with the fanciful notion of universal suffrage," The older man remarked, which wasn't news either... nor was it that Carol, the Mrs Rockhill, was of the opinion that China would be better off with something akin to the government of Russia, with a Tsar... that was to say going back to having an emperor but with a tsarist like system of governance, which had surely made for an interesting conversation... and one that John Allen was glad to have missed. "Aritomo might well have a coronary if someone told him that every man in Japan should have the franchise."

That was true. "He certainly wouldn't be keen to the idea, precisely though Reinsch has no connection to Sun so far as I've been able to discern."

Rockhill nodded and lifted his glass of bourbon, "So far as I know as well... that isn't to say the doctor doesn't have friends in our government, but Reinsch is her because he's the president's friend and is a very well read scholar of law and society. Our farmer's republic has had the vote for men since near to its inception, and the professor seems to have taken that for granted. Our Chinese friends hate western costume, well save perhaps the soldiery, but even Yuan would prefer to wear his native dress and even would still wear a queue if it were permissible. Look at Zhang he'll wear his prussian jacket, and breechs, but its still in Wu Wei black, and he still has that ponytail."

The Field Marshal was down and across the floor engaged in what looked like loud, if jovial conversation with members of whom Allen recognized as the Royalist society, or members of their political wing. With Parliament dissolved their representatives were in Peking, but were mostly here for social soirees like this.

The conversation slowly turned to the issue his father had warned of, "Adams's fooling around will be lucky if he doesn't spark another set of riots. At the very least I should expect the French legation will make official complaint," Rockhill was quite partial the French, so he would know for sure, "couple all that with the loan business, and the bankers, and the presidents distaste for business of money lending. It is a mess."

It was that. John Allen reached for his own drink, paused, "If Adams is raising such a fuss... presumably he needs records."

"Oh he has them, the southern doctor made sure he had unfettered access to any sort of rail document, official fees and commissions and Sun's own inspectors went with him, everywhere. The new one, Sun's replacement is... less inclined. He doesn't want to rock the boat, and have a bunch of fellas get upset with him if Adams trawling steps on more toes than it already has."

Or was in the process of, like the states China had no shortage of newspapers, and even now Doctor Adams was at one of the small tables looking out over the floor and the ornate Christmas decorations complete with new colored electric lights engrossed in conversation with a pack of muckrackers. That hadn't escaped Rockhill's attention either. The old statesmen nodded as John Allen returned his gaze from the mob.

"That isn't even half of them, and Adams, and Reinsch too think this is the states with the progressives running rampant. Each one of them would like to be that Tarbell woman, or Sinclair I suppose."

John Allen, the Cadre as a whole really, took the paternalist position in most respects. The men worked in eight hour shifts and earned what were by Chinese standards exemplary wage for other reasons besides just their own well being. Eight hours kept the men sharp, and cut down on accidents. High wages meant that they could buy the goods they helped to manufacture. The housing the companies built and access to western medicine kept the whole matter running smoothly. It was little different than how a number of stalwart industries in the states were done. "What does Adams make on the matter?"

"The word feudal I would report was used, often and vigorously." He shook his head, "But with the hour fast approaching I think that is enough business for the evening. Information is a gift in its own right, but I am fresh from the land of the Pashas." He declared broadly, "And I know about that set of fine dinner ware you had set away for Carol, and I."

--

New Years eve had been a blur, unfortunately, in his memories. The sharp pain in his eyes were Yuan's fault. The general, and president had let the liquor flow like a great deluge and made a party of it. He broken out sticks and great detailed figure models to engage in the Prussian tradition of war gaming in his palace's game room, and that lasted nearly into dawn's hour of the new year before the last of the armies had retired either vanquished or their 'generals' agreeing to the draw.

Bill laughed. "Come now vanquisher of the Tai Ping," A French officer had effectively lead the Tai Ping where Allen had held command of Gordon's tigers, and lead them to, "Your army remains ever victorious." The texan was too damn loud.

"Breakfast first," Allen grunted settling into the chair and the great continental spread of fruits, jams, cheeses, and all the rest of the fixings before him.

Bill thankfully let the matter rest for about ten minutes. "So its 1914." It had been the first of January 1914 for hours now. They had received and replied Edenborn's telegram of felicitations ushering it with in ten minutes of the bell tolling. The thought was punctuated by the eight o'clock bell.

"Before we get to business, best go to see that Shinozaki isn't dead." The young Japanese officer was tall by Japanese standards, but Shinnosuke was.. well Allen probably had fifty plus pounds on him, and a good six inches to be sure, and Bill was taller and more robust than him still. Not that that had stopped him from heroically trying to keep pace with the Texan long after Sam, and JP had both put aside their glasses for the night.

Bill scoffed at the idea took a bite out of an orange imported from California, and marched off. Shang made his morning appearance before Bill returned, which was not a particular surprise, but that he had brought Percy in with him, was.

"John Allen, do apologize for dropping in so early." Percy glanced at the continental spread, "Don't so I could impose a bit for a little more substantive measure to break my fast."

Allen waved, "I was craving eggs actually, sausage," And Bill had grown up on plates of beans for breakfast, and once the expanded breakfast was ordered for the Englishman fished over his bad news.

"I do hate to start the year so poorly, but the ministers and the foreign ministry have been at it." He commented pointedly ignoring Shang's evident displeasure at the Indian being in the room, or at least and being armed in what was a relatively bleak overcast Thursday morning… the conversation followed in English of course. Percy's Chinese was passable of course, but it was obvious despite years in North China he had been trained to speak for a post in Hong Kong by the British colonial establishment.

The news he had though was relevant. It was no secret of course that so much of the KMT was either influenced, or directly supported by the overseas Chinese population. Song Jiaoren had made a key plank of his campaign a dedicated effort to win support from land owners in the countryside as well as the emerging middle class of the major coastal cities, but the overseas population had greater access to both money, and necessary items for the revolutionaries. "Current estimates from the Dominion," He meant Canada, "Suggests the ring in Vancouver has supplied some three thousand dollars American in value through a mixture of legitimate revenue and the theft and other illicit means." Percy paused, "Oh, I'm sorry that is for the month of December alone, gentlemen."

The admitted incomplete list of purchased weapons that were now presumably on ships bound for China, or had already made it ashore, included everything from Mauser pistols, Colt and other revolvers, to further shipments of Ross Rifles, to an abundance of Remingtons, and Winchesters. Still if there was to be any good news from the invoices it was that the ammunition volumes listed were painfully small. That, and of course and he saw no machine guns, or any sort of other artillery to which was included.
—

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