September 1916 Part 2
Imperator Pax
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September 1916
Part 2
He'd spent the morning dealing with the steel side of the business, and the large forgings pressed out by the presses built in answer to the Entente's voracious steel appetite. The trip had meant only getting in after Bill and John Paul had started, "The Green Gang," Bill questioned, "Those are those assholes Scabby is always scrapping with, what's a bunch of Shanghai gangsters got to do with the canal?"Part 2
"Cause they weren't always big city gangsters." and because they weren't just limited to Shanghai. The explanation rambled into a history of the canal, and its eventual ridiculous system of hereditary boatmen, inevitable government corruption... and so forth.
Bill whistled and reached for the whisky. "Alright the green gang, which just underscores that we need actual police. Look, my daddy will be the first tell you one riot one ranger is blustering nonsense, and you always want as many men as you can put quick," He glanced to Allen who shrugged for him to keep on, "but we're going to need to start somewhere, and if they're rangers or some sort of constabulary but we have to do something."
"JP wants a series of schools, I guess one of them will have to teach military politce officers. Two hundred men?"
"What would that come out to?"
"Three companies roughly," Military Police were never the size of stand up riflemen so it would work, "we could call it a battalion."
JP nodded, "If it needs a fancier name, we can use gendarmes."
The last two years had changed the cadre. Oh theoretically it was still supposed to be one vote per member, but the exit of so many stock holding members and consolidating of stock had changed things... and in some ways that had made voting simpler. The idea of 'Gendarmes' being something they could just hash most of the details out before bringing it into committee would have been unheard of just two years earlier. They'd probably still have to talk some people around, but there was already an acceptance to raising mroe troops. "So the Green Gang?"
"Its a pretty simple racket provincial gangs steal from neighboring provinces and smuggle tobacco for example that then gets sold off to make counterfeit cigarettes." That did explain the case of tobacco, "its not just that. The trade goes both ways, they bring guns in from Canada for example we know that, they probably facilitated some of Bai Lang's shipping for a nominal fee." If the canal system had been in better shape then they'd have been able to reach further, but it did make some explanation to the maneuvering Bai Lang had made in the autumn of 1913.
The conversation twisted itself up into knots about what to do with that bit of trivia. Bai Lang had been dead two years, whatever surviving organized part of his host was only as close as Szechwan and more likely in Yuunan. With the war on, Canadian arms were scarce and while it wasn't impossible that thieved weapons could still come in, there were other matters now. They could tell the municipal police force in the international quarter, but that assumed that they didn't know.
and in truth... he should have, would have probably had a better chance of knowing if not for everything else related to the European War and all the business it generated that Bill had no interest in waiting for 1917 to start trying to put his Rangers together... but his impediment had been finding experts and men willing to build something like what had been built in the Philippines, and that would end up shaping the body when it was finally approved after the fact really.
--
The train ride east hadn't been an issue. No one so much batted an eye the uniformed men. People were used to it now, and Allen supposed it was probably the same in Europe.
Hunan was starting to split at the seams, and the bandits coming over the border would only intensify, which would only worsen conditions in Shansi and Shensi... provinces that Duan was unlikely to give two shits about. Duan didn't have the money for that, and even if he had his focuses were on the eastern, the coast of Zhili and looking directly south. While Duan appreciated the Ma family's verbal support, and any taxes was better than none, it was a pittance against the arrears peking managed to spend.
Cao Kun on the other hand, well even aside his post as minister of railways and communications, had more personal reasons to support Siems-Carey and anything like it. "Your minister Reinsch is greatly in favor it." He remarked sipping his champagne, "And with all the bandit problems it would make things easier."
This whole mess reeked of nepotism. Cao Kun was alright, Allen didn't dislike the man, "I'd prefer it in ink. Verbal agreements make the Europeans ornery."
"Written agreements they don't like make them worse."
"Yeah, but if its written I can send Lansing a copy." Cao Kun nodded at this, and refilled his probably fifth glass of champagne, and the implicit comment that the secretary would interdict attempts to fuss... that and, "What about the Ma's?"
"They don't do railways," he shook his head dismissively. "If they run regularly then that's enough, but if you could take Hongkui on," One of Cao Kun cousins, or inlaws, "He's going back to fight bandits, he could use the help."
"Kansu?"
"Technically yes, but bandits like dogs don't much care for lines drawn on maps."
All too true, "How are talks going for the southern line?
He sighed, "Duan," Who'd been prime minister coming up on three months now, "doesn't want to issue gold bonds. He'd rather just go back to the old way of doing it."
"Any particular reason why?"
"Parliament. It would be easier to just follow what's worked, but the Europeans talk about their old agreements and then say they don't have the capital." Duan wanted to follow Yuan's policies of supporting the entente, go further and send troops overseas if the talking was to be believed, and that chatter was getting louder. "So we're just supposed to linger and do nothing."
"I can build the western railways." He stated, "But the southern line is out of the question. Hunan is coming part at the seams as it is. IF the province breaks out into full warfare it'll be messy." That and there was no appetite to building railways through hunan after the debacle that would eventually lead into the October 1911 debacle. "I've told the old man that if conditions hold we can run a rail line all the way to urumqi."
"A thousand miles," Cao Kun declared, "Can you really go that far west?"
"As conditions hold. Year after next, really probably 1919 before its commercial, and that's discounting rolling stock and engines needed for regular travel." There were reasons to go that far west, but nothing to the sheer value of Xian. Xian's population and unlike Hankou or Peking, made it an excellent foundation for sustaining industry. They wouldn't have to share the city with anyone, there were no other concessions there, and they even had the appreciation of the neighbors, which was always nice. "If Hongkui can handle bandit suppression then the engineers can oversee construction," He settled for the last word than talking about berms and bridges and the rest that would be need, and just omitted any overt mention of dynamite. The conversation drifted to the salt tax, and other matters. On paper Duan's War Participation Army, had to love the names the bureaucracy came up with things, sounded theoretically like General Wood's preparedness campaign... but the differences in political structure made them wildly different. There was no way parliament would approve the money needed for which would have to come from somewhere.
It seemed unlikely that the US would approve loans directly, but might indirectly through the circuitous pathways money had begun to disperse... often going from New York financiers, to London ones then dispersed to others only to then be used to purchase goods elsewhere than the final state. US loans money to England, England loans money to Japan, Japan loans money to China? It seemed a stretch, but Allen had no idea whether John Jordan would support Duan, where he almost certainly would have supported Yuan if he had attempted it.
"I don't doubt, Duan can recruit two hundred thousand me."
Cao Kun nodded, "He could, certainly, but as you've surmised there is the matter of arming them, clothing them, providing for them." Men if you were desperate were cheap, for centuries, thousands of years the life blood of any army had been levees of peasants to swell the ranks. Money, it always came down to money.
The European war was a meat grinder of soldiers' lives. The Gallipoli mess had killed almost a hundred ninety thousand men in Imperial (British Empire) losses according to what they'd been told... and it had been a dismal failure. There was no telling how many Turkish boys had died in the defense either, probably at least as many.
Cao Kun departed a quarter past three, but his departure allowed the elder Forrest to step past Captain Deng and shut the door leaving the captain looking flustered. "What do you charge the brits for pig iron?"
Allen scratched his brow, "I think its fixed at fifty dollars," They weren't under cutting anyone just splitting the difference for the year, the British needed raw materials. It was no secret. It was also no secret that European demand for steel was in no way going to decline. Not with the war still going, and Carnegie able to produce more steel than the Central powers could all combined. "We know it 'll go up next year, market demand is high."
He got a look thrown over as the stopper opened on the bourbon, "Lansing had a charming conversation with the French. Who want us to affix price controls to the steel industry. Others, for the public interest." He turned with three fingers poured, "Don't scoff, we'll be in the war next year, for sure if the Republicans win, if it happens Wilson plans to ask Lansing to step down so he can appoint the president elect to the job, and then he and the vice president will both call it quits."
Allen blinked, "You're kidding."
"I am not, even if the republicans don't win Wilson has taken too many steps for us not to get involved. Lansing will get his way, and has boxed the president in, especially with Wilson too preoccupied with General Wood." The glass sat down, "Which of course is why, well Edenborn has been adamant that the war is a European affair, should remain a European affair and that Germany is no threat to the United States." Which was not the sort of thing to make one popular with New York's elite...
"He's not wrong. Edward Gray's panicking in 1914 should have gotten him thrown into an asylum for hysteria," His response was to cover the pit opening up in his stomach. The old man read the mail. He read probably everyone's mail, and if not the actual mail then certainly all the cables, and had the phone lines tapped, which JP should have known.
"Duan Qirui wants to join the war, and I expect from the conversations he's had with the professor," Reinsch, "that that will be doubled down on when we enter. There are expectations about what will come out."
"I'm aware about the war participation army, in fact I just had a conversation about it."
"Cao Kun, I'm not surprised. Kitchin is in talks with Edenborn, they expect there will be a draft and that they can shepherd some poor little lambs over here for the conflict."
"Do you know what happened in July of 1914?" He asked his father, "Pretty much every, or at least much of the socialists of Europe abruptly forgot all about the peace pacts and rallied for war."
"They have souls after all," The old man snorted, sipped from the crystal smacked his lips in approval, and then asked "What's your point?"
"Edenborn's proposal does let them get out of the queue, they'll be out of the country and the war can't last more than another couple years. The end of the decade. They'll be harmless and out of the way, and they'll be useful when the US comes in because they'll be over here in jobs that will contribute to selling to the Europeans."
"That's optimistic."
"Lansing doesn't want a spectacle with the socialists, anyone out of the country won't get drafted or he'll permit exemptions and waivers."
He had expected a laugh, or a snort, but it never came, "And how can you know that?"
"Because the British have already exempted," For all intents and purposes, "the Irish from compulsory military service. There is no conscription in Ireland."
"Then you had best have all your ducks in a row, if you mean to have Lansing as fait accompli, and best you not forget they could always recall you to active duty." Reactivation of his commission seemed unlikely, and would almost certainly entail an expansion of the armed services that would require a promotion two or three grades to warrant pulling him out of his comfortable civilian industrial position.
"Do you know something?" He asked, fishing, Obviously Fishing.
"Not today. I'll tell you about it soon... but not today son."
--
Notes: The US Selective Service Act was presented to Wilson officially in December of 1916, but had it origins probably as early as 1914 or even 1911 in its most basic forms. (Mexico's revolutionary actions and the prospect of a second mexican american war was a very real concern in this period.) As it happens though, the US exempted teachers from first round of draft service and so by and large the SSA didn't send any of them over there, unless they volunteered.
France's complaints about the expense of ww1 actually started in1914, though that was initially, largely confined to complaining about the British, (By 1916 they finally achieved a common pricing arrangement with the English over coal) but quickly turned to complaining about the US practices. This would eventually culminate in Wilson voluntarily pausing the loans interest payments France had taken out in the war, this was unpopular but frankly the Franc was subject to devaluation and inflation was rampant, and highlighted a number of other problems in the pre war french economy and its undeveloped banking system.