Esquestria: The House of the Sun - A pony cultist experience

[Venerable Ro]

I'm interested in considering what giving Luna Axe's binding would mean for both of them, narratively. Whether Luna summoned her or not (though wouldn't it be neat if she did) Axe was getting kinda cagey about us and delegating like that would really throw off the "just another deranged adept" narrative.

Come to think of it, we could hypothetically set Luna up with Axe and Biedde to form a potent little strike force if needed. On a more immediate note, we were directly told a while ago that there are local expedition sites in Ponyville and the surrounding area that we completely ignored. In the game those sites are where you get most of the good stuff, even if we personally are beyond the books we might find we can still add them to the Library, and any reagents or artifacts would/could go directly towards addressing issues of money and effectiveness we're having.

Honestly I'm pretty sure we were meant to rely a lot more on things dug out of those sites, but between our unreasonable all-skilled relationship with the Lores and our ability to simply buy things we've kind of missed out. In any case, perhaps Luna can go on a very local adventure, get some experience/practice for herself and some loot for us.

 

[angelsadvocate666]

Personally, if we were to go for Biedde—this is not me advocating for it mind, just acknowledging possible reasons—it would be for mostly information. He's a really good guard, yes, and it would be nice to not have to assign anybody else to guard, but he's an even better scout and assassin. I would one hundred percent summon him if my purpose was explicitly to start taking shots at Copper and her Cult as soon as possible.

There's also just information about him, personally. A better idea of his abilities, his Sacrament requirements, and also how he could help improve our Edge by a lot. Hell, I actually wouldn't be against Summoning him and having him immediately throw an Edge Influence on us just in case of assault. We can put another guard if we really need to, but +70 Combat Velvet probably doesn't need one. It would also give us the last two scraps necessary to get to max Edge, which would mean we can probably do his Sacrament immediately next turn.

 

[Talon Tiger Dino]

Why do you want Biedde this turn? Is there anything urgent we want him on or is it only security? Because if it is that we might as well summon MitL instead. Is it expeditions? Summoning two names on top of other rituals would leave us little money for them. Is it fear that Copper might summon him if we dont? That would assume that Copper already got past the church and that seems unlikely.

Edit: Come to think about it, what are the odds of Velvet summoning a MitL without reagents?

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The sooner a Name is summoned the sooner friending that Name can occur. Also the sooner we get more AP. And scraps. And other such benefits. Also we don't know how far Copper got into the Mansus before we burned down the Woods, so maybe they are contemplating acquiring the old man. Or maybe they just amassed a kill squad who are making their way to us as we speak, in which case we probably still want the Edge Name. He is rather more potent than a MitL.

 

[Solace2117]

My main concern with the Bureau action is we put the constables to help the detectives for the extra action last turn. I feel like going to the well each turn for the extra action could be like when we were running the farm and blew off Velvet's responsibility too much. We want Velvet to keep a low profile with everything going on, it might be better to save that this turn and have them follow up. We'll still have 4 actions with 2 followers covering. Feels like we have a lot of things the followers can help with this time. May not be too big a deal this time, but something to keep in mind.
As to the Luna, while just focusing on training is good in theory I feel like it's a bit of a waste for her. I mean one turn is fine, if we really can't think of anything. She wants to help though and even having her guard while potentially a "waste" it is important on the off chance something happens considering it's her family now too.

 

[angelsadvocate666]

I'll admit, it is kinda suspicious how absolutely quiet Copper has been since the Neighnia attack. No more ritual assaults, no physical attack last turn, hell, I don't think we've even got any sort of in-character indication that she's even causing a major ruckus in Manehattan. The Baldomare summoning used adepts as sacrifices so it's not like she was kidnapping people for it or anything.

I'm honestly starting to think that she either assumes Velvet is dead—maybe replaced by a particularly clever changeling if she's heard about our Bureau position—or is too afraid to actually attack. Maybe isn't capable of attacking, having possibly gone insane or been overthrown by some of her minions.

Even the DoA being at semi risk if we fail isn't really a sign that she's still around, since plenty of mooks could make the attempt.

 

[Greymere]

Still, if she couldn't guard, I don't remember the reason for that. And if the reason was purely narrative, I just thought of another narrative reason as to why she could guard now.

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Is that reason named Mareinette?

Edit: Come to think about it, what are the odds of Velvet summoning a MitL without reagents?

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93.24% chance to make Lantern DC (80), w/ reroll.

94% chance to make Edge DC (60).

99.64% chance to make Knock DC, if DoA doesn't eat our reroll.

For a total of something like ~87%. Can boost to ~93% w/ Torn Risen sacrifice (free). Can boost to ~97% w/ Torn Risen and Lantern 1 sacrifice (5 bits)

Anyway, time to go adjust my plans based on new information, now that it's a reasonable hour in my timezone.

 

[Steady Gaze]

It's all been said before, but while Mareinette will be quite good at them, using Mareinette for a social action we actually care about is risky because of her choosing an option for us, out of our control:

[OLD INTELLIGENCE]: If Mareinette is alone while performing a social action, and a vote is offered, she will instead pick the vote based on what she thinks is best. (This will be based on her personal knowledge of you, as well as her loyalty. This trait can be either positive or negative, depending on interpretation)

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Note the comment on her loyalty affecting what option she chooses.

I mention this because I would like to take the Comet Feet fleeting opportunity if at all possible. There will likely be some choice of what to tell Comet. I remember Comet is still under the impression we're working for the Master, and that's why he's pretty standoffish with us?

"You mean to tell me you didn't know?" Shining says. And a low, wrong-sounding chuckle escapes his lips. The noise of leaves brushing against each other feeling utterly unnatural as they leave a pony's mouth. "Well, I suppose it only makes sense. You wouldn't have reason to seek out Comet Feet after he betrayed us… and given his skills, it probably wouldn't be wise either."

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Why… doesn't she know that you too left the Cult? Where did she get that information from? Does she not know that you decided to… to betray her as well?

How exactly does she view everything that happened?!

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I accepted Comet's offering, and I released him from his duty. And in return, I planted a little seed inside this body.

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He did leave before we declared we were leaving. (Or did I misremember something?) Of course, we could send Mareinette if we think there is no way she can screw us. But, like, if it'll be a choice like "keep him at arm's length" or "try to get his loyalty", we can't preclude the possibility of her picking the option we don't want.

But yeah, taking the fleeting opportunity with him will likely result in a way of actually getting his loyalty, rather than the begrudging thing he has going on between us and Fluttershy. And, well, it would be nice to have more followers and build our own cult. But of course this is really difficult due to the AP crunch; it probably would've been much easier to do it earlier in the game rather than storming the Mansus (which was probably also not a bad idea). Reminds me of how (according to one of Bird's previous comments that I remember) we were "supposed" to (in Bird's preconception/planning of the game) get the other original cult lieutenants on our side. That and:

I had initially planned for you to have several "pawn-like" followers, and for you to throw numbers at a problem until it got fixed, but the story brought us in the direction of "a small number of deep friendships".

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In general, maybe balancing from a completely "tall" build to one between "tall" and "wide" could help us. That is, if it isn't too late in the game to pull it off.

Still, with a better relationship with Comet Feet, we could potentially get him to guard our house permanently (without costing Fluttershy's action… although I think it was mentioned she is a bit useless, but hey, every follower starts somewhere, and at least there's base covering), participate in an assault on Copper, pull security on dangerous expeditions, etc.

The relationship-building fleeting opportunities do seem to actually be fleeting, also. Like, you may remember how we kind of missed the boat on getting a good "in" with Velvet Pride. And early in the quest, helping to diffuse the situation between Diamond Tiara and the CMCs, and building our relationship with Soft Sweeps got nice results.

 

[Greymere]

Alright, presenting version... three? Four? Something like that

Followers (9 AP)

- Detectives: Threats from outside
- Constables: Changeling follow up
- Commissioner: Increase Bureau loyalty

- Summon DoA

1) Selene: Learn her abilities & privileges
2) Mareinette: Get us more bits (without murder, abduction, or drawing suspicion to us; other illegal methods are fine)
3) Guard our home (most likely: DoA)
4) Reflection of the Tapestry (Frangiclave) (Most likely: Baldomare)
5) Reflection of the Tapestry (manuscripts & other evidence) (Most likely: Jade)
6) Destroy the evidence found by RotT (Most likely: Selene)
7) Dig up a dead body, to be turned into a Torn Risen (most likely: Fluttershy?)
8 & 9) Cover your bases (Most likely: Rarity + Servants)

Takes DoA off the expedition, because if a gift can't apply that's a lot of bits to spend when Frangiclave and Biedde summoning is looming on the horizon. Also changed Fluttershy asking Comet to guard to a general guard action now that we now that DoA is willing to do that; DoA should be pretty good at killing Windigos, between her native Edge, innate Edge Influence (total of +65, a bit higher than a solo Windigo), and bazillion Wrong Keys, which is the other big reason I took her off BtRC Part 2. Digging up a dead body for a Torn Risen (aka free Edge 2 reagent ).

Velvet (4 + 1 - 1 AP)

- AotL: Outsider search (SH) or Comet Feet (Grail) if the FO is taken
- Forge: SH2, to be used on Jade's RotT
- Social: Level up Jade
1) Read books (Forge 3, Forge 3, Mystery Book)
2 + 3) Outsider search (x2) or 2) Comet FO and 3) Outsider search
4) Search the Mansus for somewhere to bring Outsider blood

Adding in a bit of flex here for people who want to do the Comet Feet FO. It doesn't affect the bit count at all, so I'm not separating it into a separate block for now.

Estimated Bits:

• Start of Turn: 16 + 160 (income) + 55 (Rarity) = 231
• Costs:
  • -20 (SH2 reagent)
  • -60 (RotT x2)
  • Total: -80
• End of Turn: 231 - 80 = 151
• Est. Start of Turn 20: 151 + 160 (income) + ~40 (Rarity) = ~351 (~451 + ? if we use her commission on T20)

With this, even if the Frangiclave expedition ends up costing us like 300 bits (i.e. 2 people, 10 bits/day, 15 days; which has been my upper estimate but tbh we don't really have a frame of reference for this. It technically might be even more expensive), we should still have enough left over to either summon Biedde or scry Baldomare a Level 5 book to buy, if we don't find a Level 5+ book w/ the Frangiclave.

Edit: And if the Frangiclave expedition is less expensive than I'm expecting it to be and/or Rarity's commission gives us a lot more than 100 bits (yes I know that's the minimum, but we don't know what the "extra" will be), we can probably squeeze in both, even if that means having to use two Torn Risen for Biedde instead of Edge 3 reagent + Torn Risen. (Edit 3: Or Mareinette manages to get us a lot of bits)

Also, just to point out, while this plan has Jade being leveled up this turn, we could level up Rarity T20 and get her to Grail 4 (reroll!) for the commission, which should mean we get more bits out of it?

Edit 2:

I'll admit, it is kinda suspicious how absolutely quiet Copper has been since the Neighnia attack. No more ritual assaults, no physical attack last turn, hell, I don't think we've even got any sort of in-character indication that she's even causing a major ruckus in Manehattan. The Baldomare summoning used adepts as sacrifices so it's not like she was kidnapping people for it or anything.

I'm honestly starting to think that she either assumes Velvet is dead—maybe replaced by a particularly clever changeling if she's heard about our Bureau position—or is too afraid to actually attack. Maybe isn't capable of attacking, having possibly gone insane or been overthrown by some of her minions.

Even the DoA being at semi risk if we fail isn't really a sign that she's still around, since plenty of mooks could make the attempt.

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Copper does strike me as the kind of person who would assume that Neighnia's death ritual insta-killed us. And tbf, she... might not actually know we're the commissioner of the Bureau? I don't know how well publicized our promotion was/has been. Or she might be assuming that "Velvet" right now is a changeling, since as far as she's aware, there's no way to just no-sell a killing ritual, especially one from the Winter Name.

Though, a question @OurLadyOfWires. Can a summoner (without the players' benefit of directly seeing the rolls) tell the difference between "a failed summoning because you failed to meet the DCs" and "a failed summoning because someone else won a contested summoning"? I assume you can, since otherwise Copper would just keep trying every turn until she eventually succeeded.

Edit 4: Alternatively, if we're willing to possibly having to push Frangiclave expedition to T21 (which... should be fine? probably), we can replace either the book reading action or the mansus action for another RotT targeting e.g. "the easiest and cheapest expedition for DoA to clear solo that rewards a Level 5+ book".

 

[Solace2117]

As Venerable Ro suggested, having Luna or someone scout out a nearby expedition and then have Luna do it next turn isn't a bad idea. It's relatively low risk and cost since it shouldn't be too hard and potentially be rewarding enough to offset some of the costs on future actions.
Also I'm looking forward to Luna's reaction to Soft Sweeps. She's the only immediate family member Selene hasn't commented on. I'm interested in what Luna makes of her and the Names. Not to mention what will happen the next time her uncle visits.

 

[Venerable Ro]

I'd also like to raise the further point that artifacts are useful and we don't have/use them enough. That heart rug came in seriously clutch several times, and even something as simple as a noonstone could give us or someone else just that little something extra. Now yes, we haven't gone shopping because such things are expensive buttttt....

The Bureau doesn't want you to know this but the artifacts in the expeditions are free. You can take them home with you.

 

[Greymere]

Okay so. Thinking abouts bits and math and stuff. If we push back Frangiclave expedition to T21, then it might be worth doing a Rarity commission this turn, since we (might) be able to manage doing one this turn, having Rarity focus on her work T20, then doing another commission T21. Pushing Frangiclave back to T21 would also give us time to scout it as well as find a book to renew Baldomare. It also means we can summon Biedde this turn, for those who want to. Summoning Biedde + putting in a 3rd RotT for a book expedition would mean dropping the book reading action and Mansus action from my outline, but it does seem to be possible bit-wise as long as we do Frangiclave on T21. Could maybe also squeeze in a MitL summoning on T20, it looks like there's enough wiggle room for that. Or swap MitL and Biedde summoning turns (I.e. MitL T19, Biedde T20) which would let us hopefully push off the RotT for the book expedition to the MitL and keep either the reading or Mansus action. Selene or Mareinette might end up doing BTRC though, in that case, if Bird decides it's better for DoA to guard.

Edit: Outline if summoning MitL T19:

Followers (9 AP)

- Detectives: Threats from outside
- Constables: Changeling follow up
- Commissioner: Increase Bureau loyalty

- Summon DoA

1) Selene: Learn her abilities & privileges
2) Rarity: Take a commission
3) DoA: Guard our home
4) Reflection of the Tapestry (Frangiclave) (Most likely: Baldomare
5) Reflection of the Tapestry (manuscripts & other evidence) (Most likely: Jade)
6) Explore BtRC Part 2 (most likely: Mareinette)
7) Dig up a dead body, to be turned into a Torn Risen (most likely: Selene, I guess?)
8 & 9) Cover your bases (Most likely: Fluttershy + Servants)

Velvet (4 + 1 - 1 AP)

- AotL: Comet Feet (Grail)
- Forge: Lantern 1
- Social: Level up Jade
1) Summon MitL (Sacrifice Lantern 1 reagent, Torn Risen)
2) Comet FO
3) Outsider search
4) Read books (Forge 3, Forge 3, Mystery Book)

MitL Action: Reflection of the Tapestry (Book Expedition)

Estimated Bits:

• Start of T19: 16 + 160 (income) + 55 (Rarity) = 231
• Costs:
  • -5 (Lantern 1 reagent)
  • -55 (MitL)
  • -90 (RotT x 3)
    • Frangiclave
    • Manuscripts + other evidence
    • Expedition for Level 5+ book
  • -70 (BtRC2)
  • +100 (Commission)
  • Total: -120
• End of Turn: 231 - 120 = 111

• Est. Start of T20: 111 + 160 (income) + ~20 (Rarity) = ~291
• Costs:
  • -70? (Book Expedition)
  • -45 (Edge 3 reagent)
  • -100 (Biedde)
  • -30 (RotT to scout Frangiclave)
  • Total: -245 bits
• End of Turn: 291 - 245 = 46

• Est. Start of T21: 46 + 160 (income) + ~40 (Rarity) = ~246 (~346 w/ commission) Frangiclave Expedition Turn

 

[Iustus Vitea]

What if have Rarity do a Commission for another 100 Bits? Is 166 enough for a T5 book?

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We would have to have her take a commission both this turn and the next, assuming we get 10 bits from her in turn 20 then that'll give us 141 bits. That'll be enough for a T5 book but it's cutting it close on Rarity. Bird just warned us not to let her fail more then 3 times.

2) Mareinette: Get us more bits (without murder, abduction, or drawing suspicion to us; other illegal methods are fine)

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Not likely to be worth it, Bird just said limiting her methods will limit the bits we get. Currently it'll be a pittance even if we loosend the restrictions, imo not worth spending Marinette's AP.

6) Destroy the evidence found by RotT (Most likely: Selene)

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I dislike parts of this chain. Firstly spending the social to raise her Lore level is fine, it'll get her the reroll and a bonus of 4 and with a magic bonus of lets say 10 thats + 50 meaning the Lantern side is covered. The SH reagent will give her a +20 for a total of 34. The DC to meet for SH is 60 and she has no reroll, all told pretty decent odds at success here but my problem is with the no reagent for our CoI part. To get the T3 Influence we need that reagent and without the Influence the odds of failing the Sacrament actions rise and thats unpalatable to me.

The sending Selene to deal with the evidence is the real problem here however, destroying the evidence means Copper has no leverage, no insurance against us. It means she has to kill us as soon as possible. That means a Neighina powered EiB and a full frontal assault maybe the next turn. Better, I feel, to get all the information we can on the locations for the evidence, bits, reagents, artefacts, sacrifices, Copper and her inner circle and then deal with it all in one expedition. Dismantle in one go rather then weather whatever storm we incite.

-snip

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Do we have the AP for it however?

Regardless here's my plan and my logic for it.

Detectives: Focus either on the Changelings or some other foreign threat.
Constables: Do paperwork. (Free AP)
Commissioner free action: Further increase Bureau loyalty.

Right we need the AP the Constables give and they aren't likely to get us much in the way of actionable Intel against the Changelings, the Detectives are a surer bet even if only because they'll increase the chances of a future Constable action.

We increase the Bureau's loyalty to us because while Luna might be training to eventually bring Celestia back from the brink we have no idea how she plans on doing it? Will it be loud? Covert? In either case having Bureau support, especially in the covert case, will be very useful. Plus having them be loyal to us personally is useful regardless of everything else.

Follower AP:
1. Rarity is to cover our bases.
2. Servants: Are to cover our bases.
3. Jade is to scry for Manuscripts and other evidence against us.
4. Baldomare is to scry for Frangiclave.
5. Marinette to give us a Heart lesson.
6. DoA to do the Canterlot expedition.
7. Fluttershy to ask Comet to guard us.
8. Selene to study Edge and Knock.

As of my last bit counting we don't need Rarity to do the commission this turn so we can put it off to the next, we also don't need the Servants to make the artefact storage immediately so those two can cover our bases.

Both Jade and Baldomare are needed to scry, if we don't have the location of the Frangiclave this turn we can't go on an expedition in turn 20 and our plans hinge on that. There is presently no pressing need to do Memory of Light this turn and the sooner the evidence is dealt with the better thus she scrys for that.

Someone brought up the fact that Biedde would be the better scouter so I'm fine with putting of the infiltrate action to next turn even if I prefer not to and this frees up Marinette's AP. She can do the bits gathering action but imo unless we let her do a lot of illegal shit she won't get bits worth a Name's AP so I think it's better to have her give the Heart lesson to reach T4. We could also have her do a social with Filthy but personally I think between the Grail reroll and the fact that we can repeat it next turn Filthy will be a done deal via the Free social.

Right my reasons for the Canterlot expedition are many fold. It can net us books, reagents and artefacts though based off of the fact we only got reagents and books artefacts are unlikely. It will also net us a ritual circle and thats important because we can't afford to spend either Baldomare's or one of our own AP every other turn. Which we will currently have to do. It might, if we're lucky, get us a T5 book thus making the very expensive buying of one unnecessary. It's not 120 bits to buy one it's 120 bits and whatever we put into the scry (and the scry's AP) as that is usually people's plan. Well that or having Baldomare do it which isn't even a confirmed T5 book, hell it's not even confirmed the Baldomare gacha will give us a book.

Now between DoA and Comet, Comet is the worse guard but only slightly. DoA has 5 HP and a total combat bonus of 45 if she decides to call a rousing air, which I assume is her limit, it's 65. Comet has 4 HP, a 39 combat bonus and a reroll. He can call down an AotL for 1 roll making his bonus 59. DoA only out performs him drastically if she decides to, or even can, use Wrong Keys against summons like we meme she can.

Finally Selene, if we want to raise her to T4 in all Lores at the earliest then she has to take the double training action this turn.

Now onto our personal AP we'll have 6 going in; 4 normal, 1 gained from covering of bases and another from the Constables. We'll spend 1 to summon DoA thus giving us an actual budget of 5.

AotL: Grail for either Comet or Filthy whoever needs it.
Free Forge action: Create a T3 SH reagent.
Free Knock action: Explore the path to the White Door.
Free Social: Social Filthy Rich
1 AP: Summon DoA.
1 AP: Comet Fleeting Opportunity.
1 AP: Call down a SH influence, burn the SH Reagent for this.
1 AP: SH Sacrament action.
1 AP: Outsider search.
1 AP: Read the two Forge Books and the unknown book.

Th Grail AotL because our diplomacy rolls are usually shit and even with the reroll I don't want to fuck up the Comet AP. It will also probably have breakpoints and the higher we reach the better. Plus if the reroll is conserved there then it may be spent on the Filthy social thus we may not need to spend turn 20's free Social to get him to Good Friend.

The T3 SH reagent is required to have good odds of a T3 influence, only then do I feel it is worth it to divide the Sacrament actions into two turns. And if the reroll is burnt here for some reason the chances of the SH action getting fucked rises. I'll further explain below.

The Knock Free action is locked in by Bird.

The Free Social on Filthy so we can quickly figure out if keeping him as a confidant is worth it or we should just burn it to get the Moth Sacrament. Beyond being exactly what we may need to hide from Celestia's Lantern it is something we can teach Luna in turn 21, the soonest she can get all 4 Lores.

Summoning DoA is a given, our plans rely on it.

Next on the docket, the Comet AP. Beyond just the fact that I want to have that conversation with Comet we can clear up the misunderstandings between us, actually try for friendly relations and some personal loyalty rather then the tenous thing we have right now.

The SH Sacrament had a DC of 110 for the first action and we have been told it will rise, whether by 20, 10 or 5 it will rise (Personally I dread it rising by 20, if so the last check will be 150 DC, the most mortals can hit. Poetic no?). Our current bonus for it is 54, with the T3 Influence it'll be 84 and between that and the reroll we have way better odds of hitting 120 then just the T2 Influence. If we fail the action we've wasted 2 APs, risk a mental malus and have to do the action again anyways. Hell if the DC needs to be met to learn something and not merely to do the action then we run the risk to fail to learn something and have a hostile Velevet posses our body even if that's for a limited amount of time.

The Outsider AP isn't something we need to take this turn but it's better to clear the path to the Glory as much as we can. Plus it's best to take as much of an advantage of the T3 Influence as we can.

The Forge Books are practically confirmed, the DC will be 70 and our bonus for those will be 69, short of double Nat 1s we'll succeed. The unknown book is more iffy but for it we'll have a bonus of 39 and the progress required is 50 so we'll probably hit that too. Personally I'd rather we spend this final AP towards Mansus exploration, double actions towards finding a location for Outsider blood and if the first succeds then 1 towards exploring the Malleary. But seeing as a lot people want to get all 4 this turn and then teach the family the next this is it.

The plan altogether: (I dub thee "Thank the Hours for more AP gaining methods")

Followers phase:

Detectives: Focus either on the Changelings or some other foreign threat.
Constables: Do paperwork. (Free AP)
Commissioner free action: Further increase Bureau loyalty.

1. Rarity is to cover our bases.
2. Servants: Are to cover our bases.
3. Jade is to scry for Manuscripts and other evidence against us.
4. Baldomare is to scry for Frangiclave.
5. Marinette to give us a Heart lesson.
6. DoA to do the Canterlot expedition.
7. Fluttershy to ask Comet to guard us.
8. Selene to study Edge and Knock.

Personal phase:

AotL: Grail for either Comet or Filthy whoever needs it.
Free Forge action: Create a T3 SH reagent.
Free Knock action: Explore the path to the White Door.
Free Social: Social Filthy Rich
1 AP: Summon DoA.
1 AP: Comet Fleeting Opportunity.
1 AP: Call down a SH influence, burn the SH Reagent for this.
1 AP: SH Sacrament action.
1 AP: Outsider search.
1 AP: Read the two Forge Books and the unknown book.

 

[Greymere]

Do we have the AP for it however?

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I, uh, suspect that you may have started working on this post prior to me editing my post with the new outline? Because I would definitely say we have the AP for it. Arguably, summoning a MitL this turn and Biedde next turn is more AP-efficient than vice versa, and summoning a MitL w/ a Lantern 1 reagent + Torn Risen sacrifices is actually cheaper than SH3 reagent + CoI, so bit efficiency is still there.

It gets us another follower AP that we can defer RotTs to and can also act as an extra guard due to having Edge (and can presumably do other assorted general actions). We still get to talk to Comet, search for the Outsider, and get to Forge 4 (+ whatever the Mystery Book does). We have a Name-level combatant to guard our house, we get to explore the BtRC Part 2 expedition, we get to scry an expedition for Baldomare's book for next turn (which will certainly be cheaper than buying it), Frangiclave still gets scryed, and manuscripts/other evidence still gets scryed.

And if you really, really want to include the Mansus action, the detective action can be swapped out for changeling follow-up while constables give us the +1 AP we'd need to squeeze the Mansus action in there. And considering we'll likely be exploring the Malleary, us reading the Forge books means we shouldn't have to worry about them accidentally becoming obsolete (and get a Forge reroll for the Forge location ).

Edit: And to point out re: Sacrament actions, if we have the MitL summoned on T19 scout the Frangiclave expedition on T20, Baldomare should be free to give us a +40 SH Influence and we can either try to power through the two remaining actions on T20, or have Baldomare give us an Influence twice in a row and finish it on T21. The latter option would also mean that we'd have a +40 SH Influence for the Frangiclave expedition, which might be useful depending on scouting results. Either way, still cheaper than SH3 reagent + CoI, and we don't have to gamble on whether or not we can get the T4 Influence.

 

[Iustus Vitea]

I, uh, suspect that you may have started working on this post prior to me editing my post with the new outline?

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I didn't yes.

And if you really, really want to include the Mansus action, the detective action can be swapped out for changeling follow-up while constables give us the +1 AP we'd need to squeeze the Mansus action in there. And considering we'll likely be exploring the Malleary, us reading the Forge books means we shouldn't have to worry about them accidentally becoming obsolete.

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I would prefer that yes. However I do have a question; do we need the Lantern 1 reagent? Or can we make a SH 3 in preperation for CoI in turn 20? Assume the Canterlot expedition takes 60 and make a T2 reagent for Biedde.

 

[Greymere]

I would prefer that yes. However I do have a question; do we need the Lantern 1 reagent? Or can we make a SH 3 in preperation for CoI in turn 20? Assume the Canterlot expedition takes 50 and make a T2 reagent for Biedde.

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Part of summoning the MitL is that we could shove off scouting the Frangiclave expedition onto it, leaving Baldomare's AP free. So we could get her to channel a +40 SH Influence for us directly, no reagent or CoI required.

The Lantern 1 reagent isn't strictly necessary, but it does boost the chance of successful summoning from 93% to 97% for a trivial amount of bits vs. just the Torn Risen. I would be willing to switch it to something else though (e.g. SH2 for Jade, Edge 3 for Biedde), since 93% is still very good.

 

[Iustus Vitea]

Part of summoning the MitL is that we could shove off scouting the Frangiclave expedition onto it, leaving Baldomare's AP free. So we could get her to channel a +40 SH Influence for us directly, no reagent or CoI required.

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I would much rather have Baldomare do the RotT because this is one we we can't fail, DoA lapses in turn 21 after all. Also taking an SH influence would mean we'd have to do both Sacrament actions in turn 20 to get the most out of it. I would much rather the CoI and SH3 reagent for safety's sake but if that's not possible then we put it off to turn 21.

The Lantern 1 reagent isn't strictly necessary, but it does boost the chance of successful summoning from 93% to 97% for a trivial amount of bits vs. just the Torn Risen. I would be willing to switch it to something else though (e.g. SH2 for Jade, Edge 3 for Biedde), since 93% is still very good.

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SH2 for Jade please.

 

[Pittauro]

Ok, so... we had 16 bits, earn 160 from our job and 55 from Rarity. That is 231 bits.

Summoning DoA costs 0
An expedition under the royal castle, if we send 2 confidantes, can cost up to 140 bits.
Scrying for a key that only opens, if we don't use reagents, is 30 bits and Baldomare does it.
That leaves 61 bits. 131 if people are willing to risk sending only one pony on the expedition.

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we're definitely NOT sending TWO ponies to Canterlot expedition. We're most likely only sending Axe, or potentially Mareinette I suppose.

Both is probably overkill and very much overpriced.

As for Rarity, it's 55... but does the 100 REPLACE the 55 if we take Commission, or is in addition to it? I think it replaces it.

I don't understand what you're quibbling over here? The income for this turn is from last turn's roll. If we have her do the commission on T19, she fails the T19 roll and we get no (or at least fewer) bits on T20. If we do it on T20, then on top of the commission money, we also have the bits from Rarity's career roll on T19. Doing the commission next turn is objectively better if we're not going into the negatives this turn, from a "how many bits will be available to summon Biedde and get Frangiclave on T20" perspective.

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It worked like that? It sounds a bit weird to me that doing Commission earlier would actually give us FEWER bits next turn.

Where are you getting that from?

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it's just how the progression goes.

5 - 20 - 45 - 80.

first we add 5, then 15, then 25, then 35...

I wonder if our Sons could help her with such actions when she is able to mechanically do dream stuff?

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Considering how Velvet is deeply ashamed of her regrettable actions AND keeping them secret, definitely not.

I feel like a broken record having to say this over and over gain but we can't afford it. Either in bits or AP. We would need to take the commission and only do the two RotT, CoI and make a T2 SH reagents for it at which point what was the point of even doing the CoI in the first place?

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then maybe we should Call an Influence.

Biedde might very well be worth it.

And I too hunt for the deep lore… does anyone remember how book reading DCs work? I'm not sure how hard it will or won't be to read the Forge books, basically.

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I think it went DC 50 + 10* level of book, and we add Learning, the knowledge bonus (so +10 per lore) + Lantern application.

So, for Forge 3 book, we'd roll 1d100 + 30 (forge 3 knowledge) + 20 (lantern 4) + 14 (learning) against = +64 (with reroll from Lantern) vs DC 80.


oh, and we get a bonus from the SH artifact too. I think it's 5 to 15, random?

I don't know where talk about this came from, but let me clarify it regardless.

Rarity rolls every turn to "keep her career". And her results are based on, well, "fashion seasons". Which is to say that I look at her results for the last three turns.

So, succeeding her career roll on a turn (or even auto-suceeding with the "focus on your career" option) will not "make" her career. And failing on it (even with an auto-failure) won't "break" it either.

Just don't let her fail three times in a row, and she should be able to crawl her way back.

The amount of bits she might be able to give you will wax and wane depending on those numbers, but she won't give you zero bits on the next turn if you have her take a commission this turn.

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oh, this is nice to know.

So AT THE VERY MINIMUM she needs one success every three turns, though ideally more than that.

Are we TOLD when she fails rolls? I actually don't know if she's failed any thus far.

Generally speaking if we know how many successes and failure she's up to, we can basically afford one Commission every 3 turns, and then we need to decide if she can do other stuff for us or if she NEEDS to focus on her career to not have problems.

Oh excellent. Then I really do want to take a commission action and go full send on summoning Biedde this turn…

Also, this means we shouldn't need Mareinette to go bit hunting. It feels like a waste that we haven't used the Name who is absurdly powerful at social things on a social action yet!

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eh, if we're willing to have her do illegal stuff (maybe we can send her to do such to Manehattan actually?), she'd likely give us a fair bit of money. and we NEED the bits!

as for not using her for social... mostly it's because it's distasteful, I think.

Though to be fair we also didn't have her for THAT long. We needed a grail lesson one turn, and... I forget what she did the other turn.

Side note, this is the turn she'll ask for the favour/gift to renew the bindings...

We have 16 bits from last turn, 55 from Rarity and 160 from our job giving us a total of 231 bits.

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add a minimum of 100 from Rarity commission. We HAVE to take it with all these expenses, really.

What if have Rarity do a Commission for another 100 Bits? Is 166 enough for a T5 book?

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t5 book should cost 120 bits.

That said, I think it would be FAR better to get it from an expedition instead. We can PROBABLY do one with either one or at most two followers on it, so that's likely to be 140 bits AT THE VERY MOST, and likely a fair bit less depending on length, how many we send, and how much faster than the expected length of time they take.

Why do you want Biedde this turn? Is there anything urgent we want him on or is it only security? Because if it is that we might as well summon MitL instead. Is it expeditions? Summoning two names on top of other rituals would leave us little money for them. Is it fear that Copper might summon him if we dont? That would assume that Copper already got past the church and that seems unlikely.

Edit: Come to think about it, what are the odds of Velvet summoning a MitL without reagents?

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random thought, but...Mares in the Light are Lantern 5 Edge 3.

They can be useful for either summoning (for other Mares, for Biedde) or for Tapestry ritual, or (if we ever need it) for Lantern influence.

They're particularly cost-effective for their Lantern bonus, really. Even if we could make a tier 5 reagent, it would cost 135 bits...

Personally, if we were to go for Biedde—this is not me advocating for it mind, just acknowledging possible reasons—it would be for mostly information. He's a really good guard, yes, and it would be nice to not have to assign anybody else to guard, but he's an even better scout and assassin. I would one hundred percent summon him if my purpose was explicitly to start taking shots at Copper and her Cult as soon as possible.

There's also just information about him, personally. A better idea of his abilities, his Sacrament requirements, and also how he could help improve our Edge by a lot. Hell, I actually wouldn't be against Summoning him and having him immediately throw an Edge Influence on us just in case of assault. We can put another guard if we really need to, but +70 Combat Velvet probably doesn't need one. It would also give us the last two scraps necessary to get to max Edge, which would mean we can probably do his Sacrament immediately next turn.

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oh, if his edge sacrament is something we can do with no (moral) problems, I'd definitely go for influence with his first action.

Good point on the "why guard when influence" thing.

and hey, if VELVET were to kill multiple attackers, that would make Copper super-scared if any survivor made it back!

- Detectives: Threats from outside
- Constables: Changeling follow up

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eh, if we're not taking the extra AP then I'd want to double down on changeling.

2) Mareinette: Get us more bits (without murder, abduction, or drawing suspicion to us; other illegal methods are fine)

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See how she'll drain every bit from a poor husband, bring him to leave his family, and then... she leaves him there, in the ruined ashes of his former life.

Or she persuades a poor colt or adolescent to "let her in his house while the parents are away" to see all the cool stuff they have... and then she steals everything and leaves them ruined...

We can still do it, mind, but just don't forget you can ruin someone's life plenty even without killing them.

3) Guard our home (most likely: DoA)

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I think I'm against it. I want her on canterlot expedition duties.

I'd say we keep either Mareinette or Axe guarding, unless we summon Biedde (in which case Edge Influence or Biedde guard is enough).

Takes DoA off the expedition, because if a gift can't apply that's a lot of bits to spend when Frangiclave and Biedde summoning is looming on the horizon

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eh, it's 70 bits max, probably less. And we might very well get lucky and get that lvl 5 book we need. Or get useful reagents and artifacts.

Just look at what we got from the easier part 1:

-Gained one Artifact (Knock, level 2, unstudied) of unknown properties.

-Gained one book (Unknown Lore, if any. Requires deciphering. Progress 0/50. From the Current Era, "-20" to deciphering rolls.)

-Gained one Reagent (HEART, Level 4)

-Located a (small) hidden location in Canterlot. One-circle Rituals may be performed in Canterlot without suspicion.

-Discovered the Expedition "Beneath the Royal Castle, pt. 2"

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Knock 2 artifact, heart 4 reagent, not-lore book (ritual? expedition sites? knowledge?), one more expedition, and a small ritual base. All of this for the low price of... I think 21 bits (it took us 3 days)

quite literally ANY of the 5 rewards above is worth more than 21 bits. all together it's a steal, though admittedly it also took an Axe action, and we didn't get to pick.

The Heart reagent was used to summon Mareinette. It would be worth 80 bits normally, if we could make it. the artifact is I think 50 bits? I forget the prices, I just remember lvl 3 artifacts are 100 bits (200 if we hunt for a specific one). Even if we only used it as a sacrifice, that's a 20 bits reagent.

- AotL: Outsider search (SH) or Comet Feet (Grail) if the FO is taken

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I'll ask again, cause I don't remember and nobody answered me: do we still have the free AotL? I remember we lost it after we left the cult, did we get it back at some point?

As Venerable Ro suggested, having Luna or someone scout out a nearby expedition and then have Luna do it next turn isn't a bad idea. It's relatively low risk and cost since it shouldn't be too hard and potentially be rewarding enough to offset some of the costs on future actions.
Also I'm looking forward to Luna's reaction to Soft Sweeps. She's the only immediate family member Selene hasn't commented on. I'm interested in what Luna makes of her and the Names. Not to mention what will happen the next time her uncle visits.

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We have the expedition in Canterlot, we might have a part 3 or another expedition site from the undeciphered book if we study it, "bureau foreign threats" ALSO gives expedition site, IF we scry for lvl 5 book that could be an expedition as well...

I'd also like to raise the further point that artifacts are useful and we don't have/use them enough. That heart rug came in seriously clutch several times, and even something as simple as a noonstone could give us or someone else just that little something extra. Now yes, we haven't gone shopping because such things are expensive buttttt....

The Bureau doesn't want you to know this but the artifacts in the expeditions are free. You can take them home with you.

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Heartifact was pretty useful, and if we start doing more expeditions it becomes even more important.

or if, say, the gift for Mareinette is our blood/health.

the SH artifact was also plenty useful, as it helps in ALL research... that includes book studies, probably Memory of Light, ritual creation...

Edge is nice for some rituals, but it's mostly just a consumable. THAT SAID, If we ever end up using it we'll be very glad we had it.

---

ok, posting this, read the rest later

 

[Greymere]

I would much rather have Baldomare do the RotT because this is one we we can't fail, DoA lapses in turn 21 after all. Also taking an SH influence would mean we'd have to do both Sacrament actions in turn 20 to get the most out of it. I would much rather the CoI and SH3 reagent for safety's sake but if that's not possible then we put it off to turn 21.

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Ah, I think you misunderstand me a bit. I'm not saying we push off the RotT to find the Frangiclave itself onto the MitL, that should still go to Baldomare (this turn). I'm saying the scouting action, once Baldomare has found the expedition site itself, should go to the MitL. This is a bit of an important difference since, crucially, scouting actions are not actually necessary to complete an expedition, it simply makes preparing for them easier. And since the MitL should be rolling something like a +70 to the Lantern and +50 to the SH, it'll probably be fine doing the scouting action.

Additionally, regardless of how many Sacrament actions we do on T20, we may want Baldomare to give us an Influence on both T20 and T21 anyway. Mostly because taking all of our Names with us to get the Frangiclave is not economically feasible, but e.g. Mareinette, Biedde, and Baldomare all stacking max level Grail, Edge, and SH Influences on us doesn't cost us anything extra while providing a huge amount of additional Lore power.

 

[Iustus Vitea]

then maybe we should Call an Influence.

Biedde might very well be worth it.

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CoI means Call an Influence. My point was CoI is only worth it if we can get T3 or above and to have decent odds at T3 we would need a T3 reagent so if we had to compromise on that we may as well scrap the entire thing.

So, for Forge 3 book, we'd roll 1d100 + 30 (forge 3 knowledge) + 20 (lantern 4) + 14 (learning) against = +64 (with reroll from Lantern) vs DC 80.


oh, and we get a bonus from the SH artifact too. I think it's 5 to 15, random?

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It's DC 70 and we have an additional +5 from well read.

eh, if we're willing to have her do illegal stuff (maybe we can send her to do such to Manehattan actually?), she'd likely give us a fair bit of money. and we NEED the bits!

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add a minimum of 100 from Rarity commission. We HAVE to take it with all these expenses, really.

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We don't need to do either of those things in what I and Grey mathed out. Her second series of plans, the MitL one would require a commission in turn 19 and one in 21 however no Marinette getting us money is required in any plan.

I'll ask again, cause I don't remember and nobody answered me: do we still have the free AotL? I remember we lost it after we left the cult, did we get it back at some point?

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I do believe it was free for last turn.

Mareinette, Biedde, and Baldomare all stacking max level Grail, Edge, and SH Influences on us doesn't cost us anything extra while providing a huge amount of Lore power.

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This can work, right swap out the Constable action for a Free AP put towards the Mansus exploration and I'll support this plan.

 

[Spacemurica]

I get around to logging in to my QQ account and I have missed how many words?

Anyways, FULL LUNA/SELENE COMEBACK LET'S GOOOO!
I can't wait to see how she is planning on helping Celestia, and if we have a Daybreaker battle in the future.

 

[Greymere]

ll ask again, cause I don't remember and nobody answered me: do we still have the free AotL? I remember we lost it after we left the cult, did we get it back at some point?

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Yes, we still have it.

Okay, outline the fifth, or whatever. Now with more Glory-seeking and an updated bit projection.

Also just as a note, the final bits amounts are likely to be somewhat higher than listed here, since the commissions are only a minimum of 100 bits.

Followers (9 AP)

- Detectives: Changeling follow-up
- Constables: Paperwork
- Commissioner: Increase Bureau loyalty

- Summon DoA

1) Selene: Learn her abilities & privileges
2) Rarity: Take a commission
3) DoA: Guard our home
4) Reflection of the Tapestry (Frangiclave) (Most likely: Baldomare
5) Reflection of the Tapestry (manuscripts & other evidence) (Most likely: Jade)
6) Explore BtRC Part 2 (most likely: Mareinette)
7) Dig up a dead body, to be turned into a Torn Risen (most likely: Selene, I guess?)
8 & 9) Cover your bases (Most likely: Fluttershy + Servants)

Velvet (4 + 2 - 1 AP)

- AotL: Comet Feet (Grail)
- Forge: SH2, for Jade's RotT
- Social: Level up Jade
1) Summon MitL (Sacrifice Torn Risen)
2) Comet FO
3) Outsider search
4) Read books (Forge 3, Forge 3, Mystery Book
5) Explore the Mansus for somewhere to take Outsider blood

MitL Action: Reflection of the Tapestry (Book Expedition)

Estimated Bits:

• Start of Turn: 16 + 160 (income) + 55 (Rarity) = 231
• Costs:
  • -20 (SH2 reagent)
  • -55 (MitL)
  • -90 (RotT x 3)
    • Frangiclave
    • Manuscripts + other evidence
    • Expedition for Level 5+ book
  • -70 (BtRC2)
  • +100 (Commission)
  • Total: -135
• End of Turn: 231 - 120 = 96
• Est. Start of Turn 20: 96 + 160 (income) + ~20 (Rarity) = ~276
• Costs:
  • -70? (Book Expedition)
  • -45 (Edge 3 reagent)
  • -100 (Biedde)
  • -30 (RotT to scout Frangiclave)
  • Total: -245 bits
• End of Turn: 291 - 245 = 31
• Est. Start of Turn 21: 46 + 160 (income) + ~40 (Rarity) = ~231 (~331 w/ commission) Frangiclave Expedition Turn

 

[Calico J]

Not relevant to the current discussion, but until I started rereading recently, I had forgotten how much I enjoyed the scene where we first summoned Daughter-of-Axes. That was great. Actually, Daughter-of-Axes is just great in general.

 

[Pittauro]

ok, "the rest" was only 6 posts.

in my defense, they were LONG posts and I was already over 1k words of replies!

Okay so. Thinking abouts bits and math and stuff. If we push back Frangiclave expedition to T21, then it might be worth doing a Rarity commission this turn, since we (might) be able to manage doing one this turn, having Rarity focus on her work T20, then doing another commission T21. Pushing Frangiclave back to T21 would also give us time to scout it as well as find a book to renew Baldomare. It also means we can summon Biedde this turn, for those who want to. Summoning Biedde + putting in a 3rd RotT for a book expedition would mean dropping the book reading action and Mansus action from my outline, but it does seem to be possible bit-wise as long as we do Frangiclave on T21. Could maybe also squeeze in a MitL summoning on T20, it looks like there's enough wiggle room for that. Or swap MitL and Biedde summoning turns (I.e. MitL T19, Biedde T20) which would let us hopefully push off the RotT for the book expedition to the MitL and keep either the reading or Mansus action. Selene or Mareinette might end up doing BTRC though, in that case, if Bird decides it's better for DoA to guard.

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I'm assuming if we roll well enough scrying for Frangiclave will also tell us of the obstacles in the way.

For Rarity, we might even be able to do Commission, rarity action (not necessarily work), another commission. Though we could only afford the second commission if she succeeded the roll in the mid-turn.

I don't have that strong of an opinion between Mareinette or Doa for Canterlot. Bird said he'll decide, but in any case they're similarly good.

Axe: +50 on expedition rolls except social and combat. but for combat she has general 30, + edge 3, and she CAN call an influence if it's really important (+20). We saw her do it once.

Baldomare: General +40. +60 for social. She also has far more health in case of accidents.

1) Selene: Learn her abilities & privileges
2) Rarity: Take a commission
3) DoA: Guard our home
4) Reflection of the Tapestry (Frangiclave) (Most likely: Baldomare
5) Reflection of the Tapestry (manuscripts & other evidence) (Most likely: Jade)
6) Explore BtRC Part 2 (most likely: Mareinette)
7) Dig up a dead body, to be turned into a Torn Risen (most likely: Selene, I guess?)
8 & 9) Cover your bases (Most likely: Fluttershy + Servants)

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do we actually NEED the torn risen? That said I like this allocation for the most part.

I still disagree on bureau not extra AP though.

- Forge: Lantern 1

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1?!

that seems a bit of a waste of our free reagent creation! shouldn't we make at least a tier 3 for Biedde, or SH for the influence later on?

3) Outsider search

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actually a reminder: we can do outsider searches with followers.

...and Selene has two rolls... Honestly maybe we should wait two turns, and then have HER search after her training is completed? On turn 22 she could basically do two rolls at +30, add something like a roll from fluttershy (1d100 +... what was it, intrigue?), maybe one from Baldomare (50 + SH, so probably +80)...

Actually searching for the Outsider is something perfect to delegate to our followers, isn't it? 1 Baldomare + 1 Luna is probably enough to find it, even!

We would have to have her take a commission both this turn and the next, assuming we get 10 bits from her in turn 20 then that'll give us 141 bits. That'll be enough for a T5 book but it's cutting it close on Rarity. Bird just warned us not to let her fail more then 3 times.

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yeah, we'd have to commit to let her work on the third turn, and even then it'd still a bit too close for comfort. Also Commission is STRESSFUL for Rarity, even ignoring her failed roll work. I'd rather let her have one turn in between to destress some.

It's an option if we're desperate though.

Not likely to be worth it, Bird just said limiting her methods will limit the bits we get. Currently it'll be a pittance even if we loosend the restrictions, imo not worth spending Marinette's AP.

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I can even imagine the easiest way for her to get us bits.

She goes to Filthy Rich and seduces him into destroying his home life.

There, no killing, no abduction, no suspicion on us. Still monstrous.

All in all I gave up on Mareinette money-making. We can use her on either socials, on heart/grail lessons/influences, or she's still amazing in Expeditions, actually our best one, only equaled by Axe (but she can't do grail challenges and has less health)

Names are actually much better HERE that in CS, as far as Expeditions go. THERE they don't have a "general bonus", after all.

Detectives: Focus either on the Changelings or some other foreign threat.
Constables: Do paperwork. (Free AP)
Commissioner free action: Further increase Bureau loyalty.

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I just want to point our foreign threats comes with the extra benefit of "expedition site", potentially. Also maybe we find out about Crystal Empire and/or Gauntlet of Fire...

We increase the Bureau's loyalty to us because while Luna might be training to eventually bring Celestia back from the brink we have no idea how she plans on doing it? Will it be loud? Covert? In either case having Bureau support, especially in the covert case, will be very useful. Plus having them be loyal to us personally is useful regardless of everything else.

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true. and as for Shining we can get to him through Cadance if we have to.

As of my last bit counting we don't need Rarity to do the commission this turn so we can put it off to the next, we also don't need the Servants to make the artefact storage immediately so those two can cover our bases.

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I really want Rarity commission now.

Better safe than sorry. if we get the extra bits now it can only help with any unexpected expense. and the earlier we do it, the earlier we can take a second one (two in a row is irresponsible unless we're REALLY desperate).

Keep in mind we don't KNOW how much the various expeditions (Frangiclave, potential book 5) will cost. Better get extra money now, just in case.

5. Marinette to give us a Heart lesson.
6. DoA to do the Canterlot expedition.
7. Fluttershy to ask Comet to guard us.

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I think it would be better to have Fluttershy on "cover your bases", Axe on guarding, and Mareinette on canterlot expedition. That way we have a decent guard AND are not bothering Comet twice in a row for a favor.

Especially not right after (if we take the fleeting opportunity) we try to clear things between us. I'd rather let him cool after that.

Filthy will be a done deal via the Free social.

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I COMPLETELY forgot we have a free social!

Could that be used for lore lessons by the way? Because both Rarity (for her job) and Jade (for rituals) and Fluttershy (currently kinda useless to us except for Comet and extra AP) benefit from it.

Right my reasons for the Canterlot expedition are many fold. It can net us books, reagents and artefacts though based off of the fact we only got reagents and books artefacts are unlikely. It will also net us a ritual circle and thats important because we can't afford to spend either Baldomare's or one of our own AP every other turn. Which we will currently have to do. It might, if we're lucky, get us a T5 book thus making the very expensive buying of one unnecessary. It's not 120 bits to buy one it's 120 bits and whatever we put into the scry (and the scry's AP) as that is usually people's plan. Well that or having Baldomare do it which isn't even a confirmed T5 book, hell it's not even confirmed the Baldomare gacha will give us a book.

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what do you mean? Past expedition got us the Knock 2 artifact AND heart 4 reagent AND unknown book last time (and a 1-circle ritual location AND the follow-up expedition).

All for the low low price of (I think) 21 bits (it took us 3 days).

as for lvl 5 book, I'd rather unlock a new expedition for it (and send Mareinette to get that while Axe and Velvet and MAYBE Selene do Frangiclave) than buy it.

The Outsider AP isn't something we need to take this turn but it's better to clear the path to the Glory as much as we can. Plus it's best to take as much of an advantage of the T3 Influence as we can.

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I kinda changed my mind on this.

Velvet actions are precious, and apparently ANYONE can search for the Outsider.

Wouldn't using Baldomare + Selene + Fluttershy be likely enough, and save us the Velvet actions? Baldomare would roll +80 at least (50+30), Selene would roll either +20 right now, or +30 in a couple turns. Fluttershy... probably something like +6? but it's still a total of 3d100 + 116 or 126, likely more than enough.

of our followers only the house servants are not suited to it, as it would be "suspicious" I imagine.

Part of summoning the MitL is that we could shove off scouting the Frangiclave expedition onto it, leaving Baldomare's AP free. So we could get her to channel a +40 SH Influence for us directly, no reagent or CoI required.

The Lantern 1 reagent isn't strictly necessary, but it does boost the chance of successful summoning from 93% to 97% for a trivial amount of bits vs. just the Torn Risen. I would be willing to switch it to something else though (e.g. SH2 for Jade, Edge 3 for Biedde), since 93% is still very good.

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do you mean letting the Mare scry, or actual scouting? Personally I think we don't need to scry. When we go on expeditions we basically have omni-bonuses to everything anyway...

I suppose there's a bit of a risk in case of actual combat. For that we might want an extra follower on the expedition to fight, but I'd rather at that point just go Velvet + Selene + Axe and save us the scouting action (or scrying for intel beside the location).

And that's assuming the frangiclave scouting doesn't ALSO tell us of the obstacles in our way... which it might do on a high enough roll I think.

We don't need to do either of those things in what I and Grey mathed out. Her second series of plans, the MitL one would require a commission in turn 19 and one in 21 however no Marinette getting us money is required in any plan.

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EVEN if we didn't need the bits immediately, I see no reason to not be cautious and get them anyway.

Yes, we still have it.

Okay, outline the fifth, or whatever. Now with more Glory-seeking and an updated bit projection.

Also just as a note, the final bits amounts are likely to be somewhat higher than listed here, since the commissions are only a minimum of 100 bits.

Followers (9 AP)

- Detectives: Changeling follow-up
- Constables: Paperwork
- Commissioner: Increase Bureau loyalty

- Summon DoA

1) Selene: Learn her abilities & privileges
2) Rarity: Take a commission
3) DoA: Guard our home
4) Reflection of the Tapestry (Frangiclave) (Most likely: Baldomare
5) Reflection of the Tapestry (manuscripts & other evidence) (Most likely: Jade)
6) Explore BtRC Part 2 (most likely: Mareinette)
7) Dig up a dead body, to be turned into a Torn Risen (most likely: Selene, I guess?)
8 & 9) Cover your bases (Most likely: Fluttershy + Servants)

Velvet (4 + 2 - 1 AP)

- AotL: Comet Feet (Grail)
- Forge: SH2, for Jade's RotT
- Social: Level up Jade
1) Summon MitL (Sacrifice Torn Risen)
2) Comet FO
3) Outsider search
4) Read books (Forge 3, Forge 3, Mystery Book
5) Explore the Mansus for somewhere to take Outsider blood

MitL Action: Reflection of the Tapestry (Book Expedition)

Estimated Bits:

• Start of Turn: 16 + 160 (income) + 55 (Rarity) = 231
• Costs:
  • -20 (SH2 reagent)
  • -55 (MitL)
  • -90 (RotT x 3)
    • Frangiclave
    • Manuscripts + other evidence
    • Expedition for Level 5+ book
  • -70 (BtRC2)
  • +100 (Commission)
  • Total: -135
• End of Turn: 231 - 120 = 96
• Est. Start of Turn 20: 96 + 160 (income) + ~20 (Rarity) = ~276
• Costs:
  • -70? (Book Expedition)
  • -45 (Edge 3 reagent)
  • -100 (Biedde)
  • -30 (RotT to scout Frangiclave)
  • Total: -245 bits
• End of Turn: 291 - 245 = 31
• Est. Start of Turn 21: 46 + 160 (income) + ~40 (Rarity) = ~231 (~331 w/ commission) Frangiclave Expedition Turn

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Reminder: AotL is automatically used on the most "useful" action. So who knows, maybe it won't even need to go on Comet.

I like this plan a lot, actually, just a couple things

1)We don't KNOW that Mares In The Light can do rituals. just keep it in mind, they might not. We might be able to send her to scout physically though instead.

2)Are we SURE we want to scout for the Outsider Blood NOW, instead of saying going into the Red Church (I think we've yet to do it) in search of rewards? we're not going to kill an Outsider next turn after all

3)I think we should NOT do Outsider Search with Velvet this turn, and instead have Baldomare and maybe other followers (Selene + Fluttershy?) do it next turn. Velvet actions are precious, and surprisingly enough outsider search is something we can delegate.

If it wasn't likely to be suspicious, I'd just send our servants, but that's unlikely to be viable.

1 is just a "keep in mind it might not work that way", and 2 is a minor thing (we'd have to explore for outsider blood location anyway).

But I think 3 is the most important thing in your list to change. Could I convince you to NOT search for the Outsider with Velvet, with the assumption we'd delegate it on turn 20 or 21?

• -70 (BtRC2)

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more of a reminder for other people: 70 bits it's the "expected" cost. But it's fairly likely we'll actually save a few bits here, as Axe will probably take less than 10 days to make it.

Thus far we've taken 3 days for all of our 5-days expeditions I think, for example.

 

[Greymere]

1)We don't KNOW that Mares In The Light can do rituals. just keep it in mind, they might not. We might be able to send her to scout physically though instead.

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I'm aware. However, there's no real way to know this until we actually summon one, so. And we can put her to use for other things if she can't like guarding (since they have Edge 3) or general follower actions (presumably has a +20 general bonus like the Windigos). Hell, if she turns out not to be able to use RotT, we could use her as an Edge 3 sacrifice for Biedde alongside a Torn Risen instead of making a new reagent.

But I think 3 is the most important thing in your list to change. Could I convince you to NOT search for the Outsider with Velvet, with the assumption we'd delegate it on turn 20 or 21?

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No. Considering we do want to finish our SH Sacrament in a somewhat reasonable timeframe, I want Baldomare's action to be open next turn to channel a max SH Influence on us, and we'll probably also want her action free on T21 to channel an Influence for Frangiclave expedition.

Edit:

do you mean letting the Mare scry, or actual scouting? Personally I think we don't need to scry. When we go on expeditions we basically have omni-bonuses to everything anyway...

I suppose there's a bit of a risk in case of actual combat. For that we might want an extra follower on the expedition to fight, but I'd rather at that point just go Velvet + Selene + Axe and save us the scouting action (or scrying for intel beside the location).

And that's assuming the frangiclave scouting doesn't ALSO tell us of the obstacles in our way... which it might do on a high enough roll I think.

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Frangiclave expedition is also likely to be substantially harder than pretty much any expedition we've done up to this point, and we still had a decent chance of individual roll failure when rescuing Twilight, which was Intermediate and not Hard (which I think Frangiclave is likely to be).

And if the initial scry does also scout the expedition site for us, then good for us? MitL can just be moved to, say, scrying an expedition site that rewards a Level 6+ book for the next time we have to refresh Baldomare's timer instead. Or the location of an artifact with a specific function. Or what Copper and Windy have been up to.

We have a lot of potential targets to scry even beyond the Frangiclave site, is my point.

 

[Iustus Vitea]

2)Are we SURE we want to scout for the Outsider Blood NOW, instead of saying going into the Red Church (I think we've yet to do it) in search of rewards? we're not going to kill an Outsider next turn after all

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I believe the Grail Sacrament is required to do so. And if we succeed on the first search then the other action can be put towards something else like say the Malleary.

Also the Frangiclave is going to be in the farthest and most dangerous set of locations Bird has. In CS you needed Port Noon Anecdotes to get to them and you could look forward to such obstacles as Liegans, Longs, powerful Wards, supernatural storms, Curses and so on.

I would much rather we do the scouting.

 

[Greymere]

I believe the Grail Sacrament is required to do so. And if we succeed on the first search then the other action can be put towards something else like say the Malleary.

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I think he's referring to the Mansus expedition, which isn't gated by a Grail Sacrament.

I imagine completing the Depths of the Ruined Church (or w/e it was called) will unlock the area with the Grail Sacrament gate though.

 

[Bakkasama]

Right. I have a couple of questions. @OurLadyOfWires since the Comet Feet FO is about talking to him, is it possible to do it with our free social action?
Just to confirm it is still possible since the last time we asked, can we use the gifts from Pride to craft a reagent and use it this turn instead of the one we already have? I am asking mostly to make sure there won't be an issue mechanically since we are choosing to summon DoA at the begining of the turn.

@Greymere I think we can drop the scrying for the Manuscrips and evidence. It doesn't sound like you plan to deal with them anytime soon and we don't know if the MitL can do rituals or if they would be any good at them, so rather than doing 3 RotT it might be best to just search for expedition and level 5 book. That would free up the MitL action to guard our home.

Velvet can also probably summon a MitL without sacrificing a Torn Risen, I know that 55 bits sound like a lot but we have good chances without guaranteeing the roll. Instead, we could try to summon the MitL without the torn risen sacrifice and then we have two options: Either we get a Torn Risen anyways (which would give us an extra confidant AP next turn and can be used to guard our home if summoning the MitL fails) or we skip summoning the Risen, have whoever would have picked the body guard our home and that would free up Mareinette to social somepony else up to Good Friend so that we can leash them next turn for an extra Confidant AP.

 

[Greymere]

@Greymere I think we can drop the scrying for the Manuscrips and evidence. It doesn't sound like you plan to deal with them anytime soon and we don't know if the MitL can do rituals or if they would be any good at them, so rather than doing 3 RotT it might be best to just search for expedition and level 5 book. That would free up the MitL action to guard our home.

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When did I give that impression? If I didn't want us to do something about them soon, I wouldn't keep advocating for scrying the damn things. I literally had an action in the follower phase in my earlier outlines to go destroy them on the exact same turn we'd be scrying them.

Velvet can also probably summon a MitL without sacrificing a Torn Risen, I know that 55 bits sound like a lot but we have good chances without guaranteeing the roll. Instead, we could try to summon the MitL without the torn risen sacrifice and then we have two options: Either we get a Torn Risen anyways (which would give us an extra confidant AP next turn and can be used to guard our home if summoning the MitL fails) or we skip summoning the Risen, have whoever would have picked the body guard our home and that would free up Mareinette to social somepony else up to Good Friend so that we can leash them next turn for an extra Confidant AP.

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Torn Risen are literally useless for guard duty. Yeah, they have Edge 2, but they have one health. One. Literally anyone else on our contacts list except actual children would last longer in a fight, and Risen aren't very useful at pretty much anything that requires a roll considering they only have a general bonus of +5. I would rather sacrifice it to get the extra +6% chance on summoning an actually useful spirit.

 

[Iustus Vitea]

I think we can drop the scrying for the Manuscrips and evidence. It doesn't sound like you plan to deal with them anytime soon and we don't know if the MitL can do rituals or if they would be any good at them, so rather than doing 3 RotT it might be best to just search for expedition and level 5 book. That would free up the MitL action to guard our home.

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I feel that Bird would mention it if the MitL outright couldn't do rituals especially when our turn planning hinges on it, especially now that we're committed to summoning one. Also, we are planning on dealing with the evidence soon, I hope to send Biedde to scout out Copper's set up to hopefully end things on either turn 21 or 22.

Plus if the MitL can't do rituals then we can have her either guard or search for the Outsider while we swap out that AP for the RotT

 

[Greymere]

I feel that Bird would mention it if the MitL outright couldn't do rituals especially when our turn planning hinges on it, especially now that we're committed to summoning one this turn. Also we are planning on dealing with the evidence soon, I hope to send Biedde to scout out Copper's set up to hopefully end things on either turn 21 or 22.

Plus if the MitL can't do rituals then we can have her either guard or search for the Outsider while we swap out that AP for the RotT

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Not necessarily. We have what information we have, and we're knowingly making plans and choices based on what is objectively incomplete information. But that's just how this quest goes. Bird's not going to jump in to tell us something when he's already given us a very clear method to learn more about how summons work.