Pax's Alternate History Snippet repository.

[Imperator Pax]

August 1920
Officially, with the manifold reforms of the constitutional ratification Allen had found his rank to be commanding general... what ... what in twenty years would become General of the Armies. It was a legal distinction with every intention that it was to be an administrative post, and aimed at preparing and training the army rather than actually commanding forces afield.

... but it was a position that had been one of coordination, and education... one not predicated one that could not have predicted at the time of writing the break down of central authority in north china. "What do we want to do?" He looked at the map, and the question was asked again, "What do we want to do Al?"

He idly tapped eastern Siberia... officially as his rank CG Iseburo was still the IG... unofficially was governor... Viceroy might have been accurate... that was what Percy had made the crack on about a few days ago... and he wasn't necessarily wrong... though he doubted the comparison was popular. "We're gonna push on with trying to get them to adopt 8mm Mauser." Kirghiz wasn't subject to the arms embargo, so they could get that stuff surplused cheap.

They'd push to get rid of the Russian cartridge ... mostly because there was no tooling or industry to make it in the numbers that anyone would need especially if a fight came. The 8mm was the standard cartridge across China even if the south was largely reliant on the older round nose pattern still... the Qing hadn't been able to complete the transition, and the pattern 88s were still arguably the most common rifle in the country... but that really underscored what needed to be done. If Siberia, and Central Asia were to be able to resist any potential Bolshevik advance something was going to have to give.

Logistically that would mean that the rifle caliber would have to change. Britain would have probably preferred if the change over 'if it must' be done to their dwarf but that wasn't likely. "Well the good news on that," Griswold remarked "is the tooling is set. Machine guns shouldn't be an issue, we've already made simplifications and mass production is under way." He meant Heavy Machine Guns those in tripod mount i.e. The colts not the Lewis guns. "It'd be nice if Iseburo would buy an order as well."

"Tch, and get in a fight with the Kwantung Army." Whose leadership had not appreciated the Siberian posting not being folded in... even though Yamagata's heir would have likely ended up in charge of it all... instead the Manchurian concession was a separate army and civilian apparatus... and it didn't take a genius to recognize that the two commands would be vying for funding in a post war budget... and since Iseburo's command was sitting on oil at least on that one island and he had the industry connections... well there was going to be a lot of teeth gnashing from the army, and probably the navy. "Don't get me wrong, if the reds come over," Dawes drawled, "I'd want us all with the same model of rifle, machine gun and cannons, but we should probably accept there will be a fight but one where we don't have interchangeable weapons."

It was a vain hope, there was no denying that... Allen wasn't even sure that if the Brits agreed to replace 303 with 30'06 that it would have justified adopting it to replace the Mauser. They were doing their own rifle experiments, with aims towards a universal short rifle... but twenty inches even with IMR was still stout for smaller men and they had to make considerations.

Dawes's comment further accentuated that officially, that he was formally the second most senior officer in the army commanding the artillery. Regardless of progressing talk, of air forces, gendarmes or national guard the artillery was of the combat arms effectively senior given the effective time in grade especially. "Zhang intends to start a full shift over to a domestic production moving from the 88 to the 98."

The troubles in Manchuria well if the Ponytail hadn't gone into retirement it was likely Zhang Xun would have probably pursued a similar course of modernization, and probably only the war in Europe had prevented Yuan Shikai from trying to modernize the Beiyang army from pushing forward with such.

Zhang Tsolin's hold on Manchuria meant he had funding for that. There was the question of whether or not he had the funding available to sustain a modernization program that would become self sustaining... "Do you think he can do it?"

"He's hiring russians, he has a mission in Austria," Dawes picked up his mug and blew on the steaming coffee, "We know he understands the terms of the peace treaty, and even if that wasn't a factor we know he planned to buy surplus. Zhang is surprisingly adamant about not likely the Bolsheviks, and I can't speak to ... the man's personal feelings but I am a little worried where he sits on the Qing."

Zhang Xun, and Zhang Tsolin were not related. They shared a surname but that didn't mean much there were a million lees after all. On the other hand Zhang Tsolin was adamant about providing gifts to the former emperor... and by itself that was nothing... but with thirty thousand manchurian gendarmes in Peking... well it was hard not to fret about the similarities that they were looking at.

"Something we'll have to keep on top of."

--
Only the most optimistic of the Cadre had grand visions of what the first elections would yield in terms of preparation... but the recent fightin in Peking's vicinity ... well that wasn't great for civic confidence. Even allowing for the greater infrastructure compared to out west only part of the fory odd million of the population were actually eligible for the Franchise... and estimates on how many of them would turn out to vote was largely disappointing.

In a way they were lucky that Duan had called for parliamentary elections when he had. It had allowed them a trial run that went through Shansi, Shensi, Gansu, Xinjiang, the lake, and Lhasa. All the same one of the self evident things going into the first elections would be that the lower house would have to approve efforts to better organize the electorate, but that would go hand in hand with tax reform and infrastructure expenditures. Schools, especially, compulsory education.

It wasn't the only election they had to worry about either... the states would going to the polls soon. That Wood hadn't clinched the nomination was unfortunate. Harding's rhetoric... was at best nonsense and worse ignorant of the world beyond the shore and ignorance was dangerous.

"Here are the financials," Waite remarked, "And the census is under way, we will tabulate using the counting machines," The machines that they had bought, brought over in the expectation of conducting a China wide census for the Qing, which had fallen through so long ago. "Its telling us mostly what we expected though."

The overwhelming majority of China's population was rural... and the lack of modern statistics, and regular efforts to keep the rolls updated meant guess work... but more than that rural life meant endemic unemployment, and also commonly under employment. Things that had been identified years ago, but with a comprehensive census would be able to meaningfully plan and address with the addition of government powers... if given time to work.

The financial commission had an overlap with the banking one, but it was a study group. It was looking both local efforts to reform, like what Zhang Tsolin had instituted with a silver currency of his own issue, and also ... the mess that was going on with abroad. As China had not needed to mobilize, as there had not been a disjunction of any sort of national market the matter of inflation and the value of the common house hold goods had remained relatively stable as well. Domestic production of manufactured goods had increased to meet demand for goods which ordinarily would have been brought in from Europe, and later America as American production had been devoured by the European war effort. "Is the Ed Commission in there somewhere?"

"Nah, I ain't seen it yet." Waite replied.

Compulsorily education in such a way that it could be thought of beginning had begun with the kindergartens and school for employees of the firm. If Augustus had been born in 1910 he'd have still been too young to be in those first combined classes for workers children. The expansion of 1914, then for the war, meant a need to expand workers housing and other supplemental, and they would still have to do that, and new schools had been planned... which was probably why the education commission was late.


--
Notes: The use of Commanding General is of course an American-ism its a 19th​ century facet this rank would have been abolished by the US in fact it was replaced in 1903 by Army Chief of Staff as position and subordinate in both instances to the secretary of war. This also goes however to the difference in the systems that are developing politically.

At this point Xian doesn't have a Secretary of War, and strictly speaking Xian's civilian positions are rather frequently filled with military officers or those with military experience. This is something previously alluded on in the Pre Xian period with Reinsch's complaining about militarism (this is something he complained about in his academic writing before he was posted to China, it was something he complained about with Japan, and China both regarding leadership, and he complained about it in this US system with regards to the secretary of War basically ignoring him). This is kind of a foreshadowed but Reinsch and some other politicians and political appointees pre ww1 were often inclined to complain 'oh the militarists or militarism is making my job harder', his complaints to SoW, and the Phillipines were more complicated than that, and also involved the fact that Reinsch was a political appointee and Lansing (and Bryan before him) had other things on the agenda.

But here with those complaints there is an extent leadership, and to be fair its very much a continuation of an old boy's club.

As to the gun thing this plays into WW2 where E.Siberia, like Manchukuo and Kirghiz and China in general are all using 8mm Mauser and typically some mauser action for their rifle. (88 Commission rifles or domestic productions are still common) Japan never transitions fully from their last Meiji era rifle, Japan is in the process of modernizing its 6.5 cartridge at present, but the 7.7 is complementary to the 6.5 and its basically a rimless 303 British. The 'Arisaka' are basically improved Mauser action rifles. As a result there end with Imperial Japan doing special procurement of small batches of different things but never adopting them en masse. (Like with the Carcano)

Caliber is going to be important for pushing cold war doctrine, adoption of a semi / select fire rifles, artillery and so forth. Those will be discussed touched on as we move further into the interwar years, because most of those conversations took place in the thirties academically. Now I say academically because while they had been touched tentatively before ww1 Ordinance branches got in the way, and also by the late thirties war is around the corner and a lot of small arms modernization didn't get funded, and were put off by most major combatant nations.

 

[Imperator Pax]

August 1920​

Eventually the optimism about 'the war to end all wars' nonsense would fade. Europe wasn't safe, it certainly wasn't at peace. The political crisis of Germany of 1920 encouraged some to immigrate, and they were hardly the only crisis. They knew that from the European offices, and Powell hoped to encourage immigration to Latin America... but the Czechs ... Czechoslovakia who probably would have been all right with out the Tsar's gold or their portion of it were doing well.

Not everyone was that lucky, and at least the Czechs were somewhat protected by geography. Kirghiz, the nominal term of choice to describe the broad extent of central asia, did not per se. The fall of orenburg the city had remained in Bolshevik hands, and remained akin to some medieval fortress marking the border... and also as the nominal capital of a communist central asian state. It kept the British invested in the region, if for no other reason than to maintain a buffer state north of India though.

He expected that was part of hte reason Percy wouldn't let the matter of a trip to England loose for any prolonged period of time. There just wasn't time to go to England, not for him. Not with everything else going about. Percy shrugged, "Well as I said the business with the Czech legion, with its great conjoining of new nations in the east has provided a great deal of favorable press."

"Yes, we're in talks to supply technical data pacakages and arms assistance to them. He almost wished they were in position to produce rifles for export to Europe just to tweak noses, but they weren't , if they were going to produce 8mm Mauser rifles for anyone it would need to be Kirghiz... "The Trans Caspian line is overhauled."

"Yes the Commission had said as much in their cable." Mackinder's people in 'south russia' as the British preferred calling it. "They're tentatively optimistic that the peace will hold you know."

"We will see," Allen replied, "From my understanding its not the same in west." Percy flinched. Lloyd George had had the temerity to claim the reason he couldn't countenance an embargo against the Bolsheviks was that it would cause starvation... well starvation seemed likely anyway, but it rang hollow for other reasons given that Royal Navy had been willing to dominant the seas and police commerce during the war, and the British had refued to contemplate budging on Freedom of th Seas when Wilson had attempted to discuss... but that merely underscored the Virginian's weakness of character for all his rhetoric...

In the end the Poles would unveil their Miracle on the Vistula, but in early and the middle of August things had looked a bit dicier. "There is aid being provided but not troops,"

He grunted, "The bolsheviks have limitted resources if the peace holds it'll only be because they can't afford to attack on multiple fronts."

"What will you do?"

Allen gestured to the map, "With tranche 3 done, the railway through to Ferghana is up and running we can look at other efforts and we will continue to encourage that the Cossacks do what they can to make themselves a less a tempting target."

"Iseburo's defense at the lake,"

"Is an example to demonstrate to, but I am just as concerned that Iseburo's defense will make any Red attack more likely to be aimed south if they manage to win in the west... assuming they give up Trotsky's madness about a bridge to Germany." He shook his head, personally he didn't so much care about the country so much as the resources and the damage its fall would do, "Look whatever, however it plays out we'll be busy in Turkestan," and on their side in Xinjiang there was just too much to do any given year, but the railways were running now. This wasn't like twenty years ago when there had been no railways in Xinjiang and the area had been largely dependent on the Russian postal service.

"Are you going?"

"Short trips only." He replied. Xian sat at the center of their modern rail network, and that stretched out to the ancient sogdian cities of trade now in the west, but it also had trunks that stretched east and eventually touched lines that ran to the coast. "The drought will require a lot of my," Twelve months of little to no rain, and then the mess in July... the harvest across North china was going to be abysmal given the decrepit status of much of the irrigation... which was of course why so many people considered flood control so important. "attention." He said, "We'll buy grain for the states to pad the granaries of course put in more tube wells where we can, but most places aren't gonna be so lucky," Either here in North China or in the neighboring countries to the north and west... and the lack of rain was across all of western, northern Asia from the sound of it.

--
It had taken the better part of the week to get around to reading the full text of the Financial Commission's report. The summary for Manchuria though proved interesting enough... Zhang had engaged in currency reforms after he'd come to power. Tsolin's reforms, and his willingness to enact them had a long history in Manchuria though...

The Financial Commission had gone back to early attempts at land reform in Manchuria, but also hadn't missed that Tsolin had opposed some of those earlier attempts, while supporting others. His government's currency reform had begun with a new issue silver note, and then... the issuance of a second currency to handle government business pegged to the Japanese gold-Yen. This was probably for the best, since the new currency was stable, and implied that Zhang's creditors were confident enough in its solidarity that his loans were secure investments...

Zhang's was one of the few success stories present... and he looked to expand that with plan to Open a bank of Manchuria with an eight million dollar operating capital. In the scheme of international finance that was not an astounding volume of money... but for a Chinese bank it had a short list of competitors.

If you were optimistic it was a good thing. The only example of note that came to mind was the Bank of Communication, Shanghai, and Hong Kong... and well the two cities, well... leaving aside them Zhang was pursuing real and effective economic reforms that very well could have benefited the whole country if only they were pursued. That made it all the more farcical, because Zhang was not conventionally educated, he had just gathered the right men around him, and built on existing conditions.

By comparison Szechwan was a teeming mess, yes there were bandits in the borderlands of the three provinces that made up Manchuria, and that required troops but it did bring them back to the other issue. Yuan Shikai had frequently attempted to keep the Army of China to a manageable half million in no small part due to financial burden preferring well armed, and well trained modern troops to the old Green and Banner formations.

Yuan Shikai had lived long enough to see the beginning of hte changes to international finance... but he hadn't lived to see the end of the war... or Germany's defeat... or the humiliation of a vindictive imperialist peace. The legal German army limited to a hundred thousand men was a joke, Germany was sixty million people, a hundred thousand was made all the more absurd looking at the growing armies of China... at their own growing army.

Yan Xishan was recommending still that the reserves be expanded to a full paper strength of a hundred thousand men. Then of course there was the move to fully equip the 5 'regular army' active duty divisions on top of the 2nd​ Division of the Guard, and the 4th​ Division based in Yan's home province.

His musings were cut short by the rap on the door, "This came in from Powell, he's been talking with Lansing's replacement." Bill remarked holding out the telegram. If Powell had wanted to talk about he could have called, the telegram was faster than a letter though, but allowed the MAK to narrow their position and its presentation.

Back at home the states had been treated to a carefully curated, and presented view by Madison Avenue to shape the message of the Czech Legion and that narrative that went with it. The Czechs were absolutely a media darling, but especially back home. The papers back home loved them.

"He's volunteered to deploy troops to Danzig?" Never mind that he had volunteered to go himself, "For this ... whatever vote Wilson's cockamamie league thing plans."

"Powell expects there to be a riot, but that's the point he wants to encourage immigration to Latin America, the plebiscite is an excuse to tour, and make the rounds, and to shore up their position as well. Its the game." The middle American cadre wanted to encourage immigration to latin america, and were willing to open offices across the defunct central european empires and to where feasible look to invest in trade partnerships. "I personally reckon this free city talk is shit..." the Texan shook his head, "I don't pretend to know how to fix the European's malfunction... but Powell is clearly thinking that Danzig is a port, and that I guess make trade."

Allen scrutinized the telegram's three pages. "Its what he doesn't say." He agreed.
--
There were other reasons to think about Manchuria was its population. It was certainly what the British Foreign Service was thinking of. Percy looked uncomfortable in Civilian clothes, it was maybe he was the one in the suit, and felt isolated from the building full of men... but Percy had made the decision not to have this at a civilian venue like say the Glory and its coffee bar... but there was no telling whether or not he'd have been uncomfortable there.

"I was under the impression Zhang was on board against the Bolsheviks, isn't he making nice with the mad baron? They're both planning to expand their personal armies."

"Yes... well I don't know if their congeniality shouldn't be more of a cause for concern, but you're really not worried about it?"

"Its geography Percy." Mackinder liked to talk about geography and to a certain extent the parliamentarian a was right... the Cadre recognized that it could not do as Washington did and pretend itself aloof from world affairs... there was not Atlantic and Pacific to insulate China from problems that sat on its borders. "Yeah, Shensi has a lot of people," But the further inland one went, well it made sense that the maritime trio being closer to the coast, and other factors had, "Twenty five thirty million people sounds about right," There were discrepancies in the numbers. Zhang Tsolin was working off a stunted bureaucracy, and previous provincial authorities number's disagreed with the Yuan Shikai era Interior Ministry numbers by several million in total... but that was normal. "What I'm really hoping for is that our census tabulations are accurate." And that it would teach them what to do next time, when they ran the next one in ten years.

"So what will you do," Percy had brought up the situation India previously. The population of India was something on the or der of 250 maybe 300 million, but trying to measure the stock of hte whole sub continent was a nightmare much as accounting for China. Percy's point stood though, "He'll make a hundred thousand by next year."

"Yeah I know," He replied, "Believe I've heard about the Renaults as well, Griswold and Dawes both are interested... and if Zhang is serious about domestic production I'll never hear the end of it."

"Could he do it?"

"Sure, why not?" He replied shrugging, "the engine is a little anemic for my taste, but my real objection is just that for what it does and Cole agrees with me an armored car, a ford truck is just as well." They weren't precisely contending with storming intensive networks of trenches after all, and that would shape what the requirements were. "Now Zhang does seem to like the Renault, and his criteria is different and maybe he thinks its worth at this stage, I do not at this stage."

In Five years, maybe it would be different then, and Percy recognized, "Mechanization will progress."

"It will, I'm sure of that, but an Infantry Division, the Guard are for the reserves and troops to stretch a defensive cordon. I don't like the situation in Szechwan, call it tit for tat if you like, but I mean to hunt bandits... but I'll not go down south..."

If only a similarly commitment from Zhang could have been extracted... but that was another matter... but these were to become known as the years of High Warlordism for a reason.

 

[Imperator Pax]

August 1920
The collapse of the German, Austrian, and Russian Empires provided ample opportunities, and opportunistic moments had been abundant. Japan citing Tsarist debts had extended its control over what bits of the Trans siberian railway were in their sphere of influence, rubber stamped by their patsies and that was it. That assumption of rail properties also included Manchurian lines. The French had protested of course, but Lloyd George's government supported the Anglo-Japanese alliance and talked about the responsibilities of things like the international financial system and the importance of rules based systems... a not so subtle shot across France's bow regarding war time debts.

Now, Japan would have certainly preferred to add the Russian concessions in China to their holdings, but the Government in Tokyo knew that would have been a much harder swing. Harbin was one thing, Hankou was another much as the creditors, and their creditors wanted those coal and iron assets in the south fed Japan's largest steel mill ... it wasn't a fight the prime minister was willing to entertain. The Japanese Prime Minister was... vacillating between political camps.

For Peking the Austrian problem was easy enough to address. The Chinese were refusing to sign Versailles over Shangdong, and they could go point to the US refusal to ratify to buttress things... but the beiyang cliques forming the new government to replace the Anfu wing were still unhappy about the situation... and the Brits had a point Duan's had signed on the line, and even if it hadn't the Japanese hadn't taken the concession during the war and gotten the Brits to sign off on it before that. In other words Allen really doubted that the Brits would have, regardless of where Jordan, and to Hell with Reinsch's talk about pre war norms, had stood, objected to hard to the Japanese concession gains. Again, the Russian concessions were the different story.

"What do you think will happen? Hara going to buy them?"

Allen shook his head, "No, I can't expect Hara convincing the diet to to come up with a figure that would get Peking to let it happen." He'd have welcomed being wrong... but even if the Beiyang could agree to a Hong Kong lease like what the Qing had offered the British the south would have thrown a fit... and ... well Wu wasn't in the south and he was a native of Shandong...

Or as Waite agreed with him, the anti-war party didn't want a headache any more than Hara did. "Which is what they'll get. Koo's idea is tempting I suspect."

The smart ass had twisted Jordan's arms embargo around on the British, and since there wasn't a recognized 'russian government' the concessions should revert to China, and that the boxer indemnity payment should cease entirely. That latter one wouldn't take much to get traction... but Koo's proposal would potentially cause trouble in Manchuria.

With Japan holding Eastern Siberia, and the British propping up central Asia Peking had no reason to talk to Moscow... Peking didn't... Sun Yat-sen though would prove to be another issue... even though the ComIntern was to still make noise. Running a press was cheap after all. Talking was easy, fighting was hard, and costly. "And there is the Ottoman mess..."

The room fell silent. The states had avoided a declaration of war against the pashas... and Wilson had done little to really abridge rampant anglo-french imperial ambitions... but for the British it meant inflaming tensions in the muslim quarters of India, "I don't think Koo will go that far, but yeah he could easily turn it loose..." And as for India, well they are supposed to go to the polls in November as well, "We should be so lucky that bit of old world vinegar didn't hit market sooner." The states had never declared war on the ottoman empire... but entente policy had declared, that was to say Paris and London had declared that the Turks had forfeit their state's very right to historical existence. A dangerous precedent to set.

It was such heavy handed talk from the foreign service, and policy makers that supported boycotts of British and French goods... "The elections in November are non negotiable," George declared casting looks up and down the table, "we have to hold them and seat the lower house in the new year."

Waite was right, it was imperative. Local, county and municipal governments needed to be brought into full function. Cole and Waite's staffs needed relief for their criminal and civil investigations, there needed to be a normal municipal police... there was much more to a functioning and healthy government if they were to expand.

Expansion though, meant the growth of a domestic market, producing goods that might otherwise be purchased out of french and british exports. The crisis, and political disruption of Hopeh, Hunan and Honan were all points of concern... but while there was occasional talk of actions of the pre war years there was a consensus that that anti bandit operations were going to need to change. A change that was going to have be discussed as input needed to be measured from Tibet, and Xinjiang as well.

--
They had started talks with Union Carbide and American Bakelite before the war, but those had had to be put off due to the war's demand for chemicals... even before the US had declared. The end of war time controls meant access to US laboratories and the corporations that funded them, and liscensure of technology.

Technology for synthetic materials had been pushing forward anyway... and Rayon had existed before the war. That demand would go up now and that would have knock on effects in the silk the real stuff market. Rayon yarn was also more in demand for cotton textiles as well. He paused, for a minute because he understood that, "I'm sorry you can use it to make tires?"

"Yeah." Bill replied with a nod. Artificial rubber was tricky. Polymerizing isoprene was costly before the war, and while there had been work in the war from the sound of it was still going to be a financial drag even with an abundance of electrical energy. "If anything our consumption of rayon in industrial processes it because we don't produce enough of it. Phineas," the navy lawyer of the McCulloch siblings, "says the British are getting stung by it and that the staffs are being let go by some firms. We need a chemical industry for the oil, and I'm going to need a portion of the trucks, which will in turn consume oil, and chew up tires. It just goes along,"

... but this was letting him know ahead of time of course. The importance of oil, and the broader chemical industry were part of the reason why Bill hadn't ended up higher in the seniority even as his command produced officers of general rank.

"And?"

"Well supposing that there was a way to expand production..."

Bill was playing coy, which meant there was a way... most likely figured out during the war or maybe just before that must have made it through the scientific conversation but for reasons not entered production due to war time limitations... rayon wasn't exactly a strategic war material, "I assume its something obvious that no one would think of like with edison's lightbulb from that shit eating grin?"

"Its molasses. As fermentation process, and its not just rayon we're talking about, acetone, ethyl acetate, butane, and more." Allen nodded conceding the possibilities, Chemistry was something he had studied even if he had largely looked towards the manufacture of propellant, charges, and well diesel too. "So Phineas knows then?"

"Of course." Bill shuffled, "There is another thing, Percy's nosing around again in the west."

"Ive noticed. You heading out that way?"

"I was thinking about ... " The bigger man blew out a breath. "The qing just didn't get around to it, like I've read where they recognized what they needed to do, that at least somebody in the bureaucracy knew that they had to do something a hundred years ago to write about," Way back in 1820, "They just didn't want to spend the money." Maybe by that point it had already been too late, the Qing had pretended to an air of strength... but the more and the harder they looked at the Qing's own tax receipts the more shoddy and hollow the old dynasty appeared.

The education basis of Chinese proposals had been Confucian of course. It would have structured classical Chinese rather than vernacular language among a population in the west that largely spoke turkic. The result was they had made scarce headway into it by the time the dynasty had collapsed. "Its been eight years." He remarked, but well semantics, and then on top of that Yuan... and Old Ma for that matter too had been dead for a couple years as well.

"Maybe we could have moved sooner, maybe not." Bill shrugged and it didn't matter, "The internal tariffs are gone, we don't have to worry about the lijin. The Tsar's empire is gone. The treaty of st petersburg is defunct... change the situation on the ground... besides with the cossacks in Kirghiz its our industry going to their markets ... and trades a lot more equitable now."

"We'll need to expand the schools." There were significant resources for their heavy chemical industries in the west... and those industries would be safe from szechwanese trouble but they also had to watch the north west, "It was different when the Ma were coherent, but given the situation on the outside things are different." They weren't talking about an abstract social problem they'd gotten the warning well enough ahead of time. The rain fall wasn't enough, there were going to, would be short falls of crops in territory held by the Soviets, and there was nothing that could be done... there was going to be a famine, "We need to reinforce the frontier and trade so that if the Bolsheviks do try for something stupid we can make sure its bloody enough they break off early."

"Like with Iseburo. That shouldn't be hard Dawes is already talking about Eight Inch guns, has been, and enough that the British aren't opposed to that sort of thing." Bill replied, "That will mean another Brigade in the west though, you know that."

"I know that, and that's why I need you to focus on making sure we've the carrying capacity to support them." For the Ma clique, their flying brigades had been going down south to settle grievances and chase bandits... and if they were given the option that would probably be the direction that was pursued even when there were other things that needed to be done... the cadre had to look at bigger picture beyond just what they had been. "The army cannot be a frontier constabulary, we are past where that is an option. The world has left that era behind. So what do you need?"

"I need aircraft if I'm being honest." [With]"So much ground to cover, we need more radios, need to be able to broadcast... if something goes we need to know as soon as it drops into the pot."

 

[Imperator Pax]

September 1920

There was a map of the river. Well of the Yellow River's Basin, and how the railways moved, had been built stretching westwards. On the edge of the map were stacked papers. Around the table were a bevy men in gray uniforms. The grumbling wasn't audible, but the sentiment was heavy in the air as they stood around.


Honan's gentry were a pain in the ass... and they probably were always going to be. Part of it was the fault of the Qing... probably in more ways than one depending on how you wanted to look at it... but when it got down to it the fact Zhengzhou was a part of Zhili and not Honan really grated on them. Zhengzhou was valuable, and so was its surrounding area, and well it was very medieval.

Even without that problem, they had made certain agreements with Yan about well bringing Shansi up with everyone else. The rail expansion largely would follow the 1914 route anyway, they were really just doubling up, and pushing farther north... but it was infrastructure work, and it address other problems.

So naturally Honan's gentry decided to complain about that as well. The original lines remained in service and there was little doubt Cao Kun as Dujun of Zhili would consider any solution of ceding territory to Honan. That wasn't how things worked, but it didn't stop Honan papers from being a source of complaints.

"The problem is Honan is the problem." Dawes dead panned.

What he meant was, this wasn't Peking. This was provincial... and that it meant it was a provincial problem, and Honan and the war anti war squabbling had left a sour taste that had an entirely different character and perspective. Honan was a province, and had its own assembly, it had its land holding gentry it had also its share of vying men of note.

Whether or not it had been intended as some smart crack by the British the confederacy as a joke had stuck. Xian was not Richmond, and as Percy remarked it was more like the English Birmingham as the growing army's core of officers supported a firearms trade... which wasn't per se the problem.

Honan was outside of that 'confederacy'. It was still North China of course, but for Hui officers from Gansu who graduated the military college in Shijiazhuang which was properly Zhili or Han or Manchu ones who had graduated from Xian college there were strong opinions. Opinions which held that while North Chinese Honan was outside of the camp so to speak. That Honan gentry were viewed suspiciously, and had been viewed suspiciously since the attempted Manchu restoration by the pony tail general made the army presence at Zhengzhou bristle.

Bristling officers who were publishing in Xian's papers and journals which regardless of in English, or in the local vernacular characters there was a receptive audience at home waiting to listen. Aspersions of banditry, and us versus them punctuated the discussions, alongside in the normal papers talks about ... well the facets of modernity, electrification, and a growing industrial urban working class.

That was yet another reason for Honan to complain, or at least their gentry as they were 'luring away' sons from farms or other internal provincial provinces. If not for that there was a demand for labor he expected the honanese arriving would probably have complaints from their side too, but the truth was that the post war labor demand was increasing as new machinery and new works were started as a result of being able to actually buy machines.

That was just a reiteration of needing to more housing, among yet other concerns and on a scale that they had thought they had been prepared for, but hat had been a lot easier to think before 1920. It might have been with just Xian's suburbs and surrounding villages contend with, but that hadn't even true of 1916... and things had changed greatly since.

The Mas out west had changed. Old men had died, of course, but there were other changes. It was no longer the 19th century, and the frontier of central asia were different in ways that would have been unthinkable to the old men at the turn of the century. There were entire clan dynamics which needed to be considered... but the current accepted route forward was to acknowledge Cao Kun's Zhili clique as legitimate continuation of the Beiyang government... but that was already a potential problem with the southern parliamentarians who were after having not stood for reelection in protest of Duan calling new elections were demanding to be given their old jobs back.

Ultimately that was to be the greater difference... in the long run the papers currently circulating solidified a nascent political position among the voting constituency to seat the legislature of the province on the basis of the new constitution. A lower house that accepted that they would have to run for reelection on fixed terms, and explain the policies they had voted for... and that was to fatally undermine support for the nominal government in Peking ... never mind any notion of legitimacy that the southern representatives had. September of 1920 was to be a month that shaped opinions that would form policy in response to the course of events of the next three years.

"We need to move on," Allen remarked.

"The farms."

Agriculture more generally, but yeah, wheat state side was down to 1.65 a bushel, which didn't accommodate transportation costs... and wheat was bulky to move. "The drought doesn't look like its going to break, we need to approve grain stockpiling measures."

Dawes acknowledged the point a slight nod. "That'll be good. You have a figure in mind?"

"I don't," He admitted, "I respect the apparatus Hoover has established but I have no interest of letting him come around but we can surely take lessons from his Relief administration and that applies to at home and the neighborly thing to do." With Wheat down by half that was feasible especially with shipping restrictions lifted, "I still want efforts sank into Waite's farm cultivation, but we need to start manufacturing tractors domestically for the corporate farms before we're going to be able to seriously move."
--
Allen idly noted on his calendar that the last big push for election rallying would be at the end of the month... coinciding with the Mid Autumn festival. In hindsight and look back at that with the recognition of the poll results that would come in and well two and two made four even if it was more complicated math than that.

He had been at west point when the most jingoistic papers stateside had broken the news about the Maine going up. The truth was of course had grown up expecting a war with spain... a war with spain had been seen as inevitable since the end of the war with Mexico even before the war between the states.... so at the time had not made overly much of it.

The papers that had made his desk didn't immediately remind him of the turn of the century. It was different. The... political ... well the pro-war pro-Duan pro-anfu however one wanted to define the position of supporting a strong north china government made their case... but Duan had failed, and coupled with factors beyond the red leg's ability, or doing the policy of a federal, the anti-war that was the perspective of leave the south alone, and focus on local matters were the loudest voices. The papers though made this explicitly about individual provinces... people still talked about Bai Lang's rebellion, but that was now a different matter.

Hui, or Han, or Manchu, for the western provinces, for Shensi, or Shansi... Bai Lang was made out that it was his provincial origin that was a problem so much as anything he had done, or his political sympathies. That Honan's gentry had not stopped a native son from rampaging, and now were if not complicit were unwilling to stop other bandits, and focused on their own grievances it was a matter of ill repute, and even a lack of respect.

The discovery of Qin Shi Huang's tomb in the search of suitable sites to dig a well had raised other public concerns. That discovery back in July was a reminder of a China that had been, back in the bronze age of distant history, he'd been the first man to take the title Emperor... and it from Qin that China took its name as a unified country.

This wasn't Egypt the tomb was a fucking city in their back yard, and something was going to have to be done...

 

[Imperator Pax]

September 1920
Four months earlier the Bolsheviks had spilled over the old tsarist borders and announced a Socialist Republic for Persia. It was a narrow strip of north west persia on the Caspian ... a joke really... but Lloyd George wasn't really thinking of Persia so much as a potential soviet threat to India. India was enough to consider for the English attempting to form defacto recognition of Lenin's bandits sitting in Moscow. Carrot and Stick, carrot such that maybe it'd take pressure off of the Jewel in the Crown of Empire.

"The Teasury wants the Russians," The Bolsheviks, but quite frankly Bert didn't care about the distinction, a lot of people didn't. "To take responsibility for the debts taken on. Lenin's guy says well the pre war ones maybe," ... and the Treasury was pushing back that the war time debts included industry that the soviets were now using so that Moscow was on the hook for those too ... and it went on, "Well the Foreign office wants them out of Persia, and it wants recognition of the borders more or less as is so for the west that means the Brest Litovsk borders."

Cullen nodded, accepting that all of this was well beyond their own control, beyond any efforts they could make here, "And the Poles?"

"That's the good news, after having them," The bolsheviks, "thrown back from Warsaw the Foreign Service" who cared less about the money / debt issues, "is digging in its heels on the border issue. I suspect it won't amount to anything until we see something change on that front talks wise."

The defining aspect was of the renewed great game... at least so far as British Foreign Policy went... but with Britain unwilling to enter the fray itself, they would have been better off frontloading the western front, the anti-bolshevik forces with weapons taken from a disarmed Germany since it seemed clear that Trotsky's red bandits could only manage one thrust at a time and that containment might be viable.

The City of London, and the Treasury seemed entirely too self congratulatory that Moscow wanted to talk about trade treaties at this stage, even if that did as a compromise seem to be a way to convince a status or set of agreements to solidify in the east. A modus vivendi in the language of diplomacy.

"I suppose we shouldn't be surprised," Allen remarked finally drumming his fingers. Nothing they could do he supposed, "Alright moving on," Bert looked like he wanted to protest, but they had things that needed to be settled. Four years of Industrial war had raised them up, and two more years on top of that helped stabilize things after all that rapid growth, but there was still a lot to do. There would he suspected always be something to do, but steel was the building block of matters critical to industrial modernity... but there was also the possibility of being bogged down on talk of education, of army organization, of higher education within the army.

Part of that was cadre politics. The political changes of the war, and reaction to the war had worried some of the remaining old guard. That seemed to be taking shape in the interest of expanding cadre industries in the west of the province and into the Gansu corridor all the way to Xinjiang. Those discussions needed to be addressed, were more important to local matters than far away moscow, or the land of the Shah for that matter.

"It baffles me so," Bert agreed finally changing tracks, "The British take such an issue with, or the Europeans in general, with holding to the eight hour day. It works fine for us."

"The problem is we did it for safety reasons, they bristle because they see it as a demand imposed from down on the floor." Cullen muttered, "Its not the same thing." The adoption of the eight hour day had stemmed originally from coal concerns, but it also applied to rail workers because a locomotive was a piece of heavy equipment. "Way they look at it, a man says I need to work eight hours, he thinks he's being lazy, which ain't always the case. Eight hours of monotonous duldrum labor causes a man to make mistakes,"

--
Iseburo's letter was accompanied by details of the restructuring of the trans Siberian railway. It was a reversing of polarity on the assembly. The reconstruction of the line, and its overhaul would insure that in the event of a Japanese Conflict, preferably if a fight came an Anglo-AMerican-Japanese conflict with the Bolsheviks that troops would be able to deploy from both the Korean peninsula, and Vladivostok and be rapidly shuttled across to the yards and spaces of trans-baikal.

Geography though was the determining facet... or limiting factor really. The retreat from Omsk hadentailed the comprehensive annhilation of the old Tsarist line eithereastwards or any attempts to link into the Kazakh steppes. There were no connections into either, or into the Bolshevik region.

"British eight inchers?"

"Apparently they were coastal defense guns," He replied to the question from Sam.

Griswold nodded thoughtful, "That makes sense... and after that landing in Persia by the reds there were talks about coastal artillery in Kirghiz, big as the lake is I can understand Iseburo digging in his defenses around the fortifications. It took me by surprise is all."

In British service the 8 inch had been superseded by 9.2 inch guns for coastal defense, and the Japanese production of the eight inch had involved modernization with a 45caliber model of domestic production. This was the Type 41 that Iseburo was anchoring his defensive line. It was an inexpensive solution, looked good for the papers back home, and had the advantage that the Bolsheviks were largely exhausted... never mind the current spanking the Poles had handed them in the west. It looked good back home in the papers and it was cheaper which would help with the diet.

Iseburo could rely on a strong coalition to support his spending program of investment, and despite talks about opening trade with the British, neither the welsh wizard, the French or the states had extended legal recognition of the bolsheviks in Moscow. Japan would not be the first... and indeed this was to be formative in policy for years down the road. In the interim, the talk of coastal artillery brought up other matters.

"We could invite Lewis." He had been in the coastal artillery back home before everything.

The war, for Europe and the States part in it was over. Isaac was out of the army, and he had the requisite experience with the coastal artillery. "I can extend the invitation again," But Allen was skeptical that it would yield results, "And if not get him to come consider if he might have suggestions." With downsizing chances were there were people from the states, probably from England that could be brought over to Kirghiz, or middle America as well. That would be good for any of the committees in question... but the notion that Lewis would sail for Middle America was dubious at best. It might happen, but Lewis wasn't precisely chasing the dollar and and nor did he have the investment in the growing ... state building ambitions that Powell seemed to be expressing with the movement down there. "We might also try and put him where he and Edenborn can do in foundation work."

"Yeah I heard Phineas is busy, and then elections are coming up as well, so we wouldn't likely get a response from the states before they vote." And they would have their own elections to oversee as well.

"There is something else, there. If Isaac won't come to us, which fine," Griswold frowned at Sam's comment, but Waite continued, "See if he'll go down to Middle America, Powell needs a steady hand there and if he can get artillery and everything else it might do everyone some good. Edenborn would probably like that too." He paused, now one precisely brought up Edenborn's age, but the moment passed between the men present, "And one more thing, while we move on, here." Waite handed over the sheets of paper.

"What's this then?"

"Its a graph," He could see that of course, "We've been pulling boys in from the farm, young folks in general, and city has a lot of needs, you know. Now in west Zhili that was one thing. There were a lot of people there, but we built the rail lines, and such but that front page is Xian since we've been here." The tables were tax revenues and that would have been important, but it was a question of productivity." The war was over now, and there were the signs of an expected decline, but,"

"Its stabilizing?"

"Yeah, we might even see growth next year. Kirghiz is good for us, lets us ease off the pressure safe like, and if we're lucky in two years next time we do elections the domestic demand for goods will mean the economy will be growing healthy." People living in the city working normal jobs, hourly jobs for wages had money in their pocket, bought things and spent that money.

 

[Imperator Pax]

November 1920
The wide drafting desks were filled with papers and men were busy scrutinizing them. There were newspapers, telegrams, letters, and documents harvested threshed and distributed to different sections. The machines clattered, but the truth was the states were easy to predict how things would be. The expectation was the Irish machine and lobbies were going to stay home or turn out for Harding... the truth was most of the national lobbies who had sided with the Virginian were likely to pivot on for Harding. Part of that was Wilson had seemed to think he'd somehow earned a third term and had been angling to run even though the party apparatus had made clear that they weren't going to nominate him.

"They're going to broadcast the election returns by radio."

"So are we," Waite replied, "Its just we don't have the whole continent to ourselves," Never you mind Canada or Mexico, of course. Now wasn't the time for semantics. "More realistically the states have more going off of this."

Allen settled for staring out the wrought iron great window overlooking the yard. The cadre lacked its full allotted numbers. Yan had published his iteration of the constitution and was at home in his province overseeing his own elections of the lower assembly there... the broader Cadre was for the majority here in Xian... but still not everyone could be here.

Some had rotated overseas but it created problems for moving forward if they didn't find some way to contend with issues of the legislature. They would need to seat membership... the irony was the solution was to be one they hadn't previously considered up until things shifted at a national level...for tonight though it was about the election of the lower house of the legislature.

The matter of national elections called by Duan in the summer of 1919... and next year they would become a contentious problem as in theory a new series of elections should have been on the horizon. The lower house of the provincial assembly were to sit two years, a position set down based off of the US House of Representatives. There would be later discussions that the lower house needed a slightly longer term... and when the time came to seat a North Chinese lower assembly it would be expanded to a four year term for representatives drawn from each of the provinces.

In November of 1920 though despite that the lower houses of Tibet, Qinghai, Gansu, Xinjiang Shansi, and Shensi were meeting most of the focus was here in Xian. Apportionment for the separate provinces was less important in this election than it would be in later ones. With seven assemblies, including one representing Western Zhili's original area of operations including Zhengzhou, the local governments weren't competing with one another for limited slots. Later though with fixed terms, and a limited number of slots the legislature's constituency would need to be adjusted to facilitate a compromise between the states.

"Percy asked what happens when we seat a bunch of officers."

Allen half turned, "Did he?"

"Well unlike with the cadre the representatives don't have a proxy mechanism." that was admittedly by design. It was an elected assembly the intention was to make sure the representatives actually represented and participated in the government they were enjoined. The intention was to prevent the lower house's memberships from being distracted by offices in Peking. At its fundamental basis Officership was a profession, and there were professional responsibilities... but on the other hand. "there are no grounds to stop them from them running for election. I admit it runs into the issue of policy making questions." George started to mull, and then fell silent as the speaker crackled to start talking about tabulated results from the polls.

The expectation of opening the automotive plant came with the expectation of expanding steel production. Steel was bulky, and while they could have imported it from the states, there was little reason to given war time production. That would keep men on the rolls and that would shape the electorate.

It hadn't been discussed in such terms but some of the middle management were smart enough to nose around asking about with the war over if Britain wasn't paying what had been absurd prices pre war for pig iron and everything else what was going to happen. The answer was that while the profits made to export sales would go away the work force would be needed for other projects.

The cadre as a business institution, as the management side of things had plans for new mines, for the railways, but much of the public discussion on the latter had been the inter urbans and talk of public housing for workers. Housing which was to require further electrical lighting, heating, and other modern amenities. Electrical works meant demand for those skills.

Then there was water management.

In the wealth of nations Smith had written, Smith having gone on to be a tax collector in Scotland's port, that there were public goods that were best provided by the organization of the state even if it was nominally at cost. If you stopped a man from getting sick though, if you in placed a quarantine and the spread of disease then while it was difficult to fathom what money was saved you had surely prevented loss.

About half of Xian's population were industrial workers and election day had warranted special planning to insure that those who were eligible to vote went out and fulfilled that civic obligation... but Percy's question did raise up other matters.

"Is Percy really the one asking though?"

"You really think Alston gives a good god damn who gets elected?"

Bill's reply was a fair point. The minister for George the Fifth to China was less likely to care than what Jordan or Reinsch would have if this had been four years previous. "Can you imagine if this had been where we were in1914."

It wasn't though, but he could imagine all the same. "The professor would probably be trying to read us the riot act."

The men laughed. The night went on. The conversation left the British and their opinions to mostly focus on the duties allocated under the constitution for the house of representatives. It would be easier for officers of the bureaus, the Guard, or the reserves to serve as representatives, the business over the summer demonstrated that there were plenty of things that the first division could be called out for as Waite put it that were of 'national importance'.

'National Importance' the words were missed for their significance, for what they represented to change and organization as Peking's importance dimmed, and northern eyes narrowed at their southern provincial neighbors.
--
Notes: So, I have more or less configured 1921 to open with its prologue in March the British Affair and then from there fudge the travel times if necessary to then have1921 run until the fall. The opening of the Washington Naval Conference isn't likely to be covered in particular detail. Indeed 21 is going to be relatively short all things considered, before we move into '22 and 23, what we will see in 21 is the delegating of anti-bandit operations against Sichuan province which is largely organizational