Esquestria: The House of the Sun - A pony cultist experience

[Shaper47]

Okay, I see your point now, but consider this: Velvet will be healthy next turn. She can arrive there, skip all of that and give orders on the spot. That makes the warning useful because we can act on it.

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The Bureau is there now though after Luna's explosion.

Even if Velvet was there there's still the question of how she is to know to give those orders. The planted evidence still needs to have been read, then she needs to give the orders. The timeline is still kinda sus. Sure Velvet can probably get away with it due to SH 4 but it's the kind of thing that is suspicious.

 

[Venerable Ro]

The Bureau is there now though after Luna's explosion.

Even if Velvet was there there's still the question of how she is to know to give those orders. The planted evidence still needs to have been read, then she needs to give the orders. The timeline is still kinda sus. Sure Velvet can probably get away with it due to SH 4 but it's the kind of thing that is suspicious.

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We are, in fact, at this point still bedridden, and explicitly cannot take Bureau actions as stated back at turn start.

Neither can we take advantage of fleeting opportunities this turn.

Any orders, any decisions that Velvet makes as the Bureau Commissioner will be made next month, after she's recovered and most decidedly after the Bureau has completed its Manehatten investigation.

Honestly the hypothetical lore/warnings are going to be seen first by the extremely skeptical Beyond Reproach, then by Shining (if he's not completely distracted by Cadence) they're the ones who will make a Decision based on what they know of the situation.

 

[Greymere]

Or, hear me out, we scry the things and then have Biedde go "defuse" the windigoes. Or perhaps we acquire them and then send him out into the wilderness with a cart of windigo jars.

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That assumes the bindings will last that long. We don't exactly know if the jars have been renewed for this month, and if they haven't then a Windigo bomb might be ready to go off this month before we (Velvet) can even do anything about it. And even if they have been, as was pointed out by @Talon Tiger Dino (and maybe others, I don't remember exactly), the Bureau might come across the jars in the process of investigating, and the jars don't exactly have "MURDER MONSTERS - DO NOT OPEN" painted on them.

 

[des-pair-2]

The Bureau is there now though after Luna's explosion.

Even if Velvet was there there's still the question of how she is to know to give those orders. The planted evidence still needs to have been read, then she needs to give the orders. The timeline is still kinda sus. Sure Velvet can probably get away with it due to SH 4 but it's the kind of thing that is suspicious.

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How do you know to give any other orders? You hear the facts they tell you and then you make a decision. They don't need to believe the evidence, we don't need to sound like we believe the evidence either, we can just say "Prepare for it, just in case." and that's that. We know the evidence will be found for certain so I trust Velvet to come up with something herself.

We are, in fact, at this point still bedridden, and explicitly cannot take Bureau actions as stated back at turn start.

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We are talking about next turn, when Velvet will be healthy.

Any orders, any decisions that Velvet makes as the Bureau Commissioner will be made next month, after she's recovered and most decidedly after the Bureau has completed its Manehatten investigation.

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Will it? Timeline wise this happened at the end of the month and we will be healthy at the start of the month. I think we can squeeze in before the investigation is finished.

Honestly the hypothetical lore/warnings are going to be seen first by the extremely skeptical Beyond Reproach, then by Shining (if he's not completely distracted by Cadence) they're the ones who will make a Decision based on what they know of the situation.

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You are right. I believe Shining will follow the warnings because he is smart enough to know he can't afford not to if they are true. After all, they are meant for the cultists and not the Bureau, right?

 

[Alan975]

So, how many pieces of evidence are y'all comfy with?
I could go for 4

WINDIGOS, MOTH-ADMITTING, maybe WORMS and some Lore sprinkled on top

 

[Greymere]

So, how many pieces of evidence are y'all comfy with?
I could go for 4

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3 at most.

 

[Bakkasama]

Maybe I am forgetting something but wasn't it stated at some point that if our rivals summoned Names then they would act as leaders of sub-cults? I gathered that the reason that Neighea was not in Manehattan was because she was sent to another city to stablish another base/branch of it. So it is possible that the Wendigos are in her hoofs and that we have to deal with two cults, Neighea's (now that Copper isn't there it makes sense that she would go independent since it sounded like her summoning was closer to Mareinette's than Axe's) focused on Winter in an unknown city and the remains of Copper's (which might be absorbed by Neighea's) focused on either Grail or Moth in Manehattan.

 

[Shaper47]

So, how many pieces of evidence are y'all comfy with?
I could go for 4

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2 to 3 depending on if we include sabotage.

 

[Venerable Ro]

I'm happy with three, providing they're not things that will spawn more complications right on the tail of us finally resolving our biggest complication.

Speaking of complications, I think we're talking past each other, again. There are two parallel topics of discussion in play here.

1. Are the windigo jars an immediate and serious problem?
2. Should we tell the Bureau about the Windigos?

These are separate thoughts that need to be discussed separately, not all at once layered together like disappointing lasagna.

Are the jars a problem? Yes, yes they are, and they need to be dealt with immediately and with prejudice, similarly to how we dealt with Copper. I've no argument at all with this thought.

Should we tell the Bureau? Well take it one step at a time. Imagine the "ideal" situation, Beyond Reproach finds the planted warning, and while leafing through it opens a storeroom door and finds one or more jars right there. Well he knows not to poke them, that's good, but he's not going to be able to do anything to make them safer and the ponies on the ground will have to make a snap decision on what to do with what they believe to be a volatile magical bomb of construct. In this particular hypothetical the Bureau would have full and total control of the jars, but would not have the knowledge or expertise needed to renew the bindings, nor would anyone else be able to easily access them in order to renew said bindings without raising questions. Not in one month before the bindings expire. This logic chain leads to the jars detonating either in the Bureau's custody or in that of Eclipse if they're seized as "materials of interest" and subsequently classified.

In a less ideal situation the jars are not available to be found in Manehatten, but the Bureau still takes the warning seriously and begins or wishes to begin a focused effort to find and retrieve the wayward weapons or constructs of mass destruction. In this hypothetical we would be pressured to focus on finding them (via the Bureau) and the information would presumably spread to Celestia and/or Eclipse given that we're all theoretically on the same side. This either leads us to a very uncomfortable institutional failure as the very dangerous things go unfound, or we end up with them in custody where we can't defuse them unnoticed. In either case Eclipse and Celestia are right on top of our efforts to bring the Lores into the Bureau and we've got to operate either with oversight or possibly just have the information seized outright since it's so dangerous.

A third option would be nopony taking the warning seriously for whatever reason and no jars being found in Manehatten, which leaves us either pushing the matter (but why, the Bureau isn't equipped to defuse windigo jars) or letting it go in which case we've wasted a "Lore Laundering choice".

Fourth option is of course nobody taking the warning seriously and one or more jars being found in Manehatten, in which case we'd be utterly at the mercy of the dice.

The only thing I really see the warning option doing is giving us a better chance at averting a premature detonation in Manehatten if the windigoes are there to be found by the investigation, and otherwise just making our literal job harder.

 

[des-pair-2]

Should we tell the Bureau?

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The big difference between Bureau and Eclipse is that unlike them, we are there. If it takes so long to process info within Bureau then for it to go across to Eclipse will take even longer. Long enough for us to arrive and take charge. Long enough to tell Celestia about it. She will take it seriously and we can let her take care of it.

I suppose now we have a choice to either give the warning and let Celestia decide or not give it and try to take care of it ourselves.

I consider the hope that all jars are abandoned to be foolish and the risk of not giving the warning not worth it.

Also, if we are giving everything we know about Wendigos, then info on how to maintain the jars would be in it. So I doubt we would have to worry about it opening in our custody.

 

[Shaper47]

You hear the facts they tell you and then you make a decision. They don't need to believe the evidence, we don't need to sound like we believe the evidence either, we can just say "Prepare for it, just in case." and that's that. We know the evidence will be found for certain so I trust Velvet to come up with something herself.

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Look, ignoring all the time issues, difficulties involving that's not how bureaucratic protocols work and why they should even listen to this sketchy filly story straight away.

Velvet is almost certainly not going to be there.

Because we don't have the AP for it.

We've got a Snake Princess to rescue and daughterfy. We've got Caddy and family to reassure, which we've got this idea of Forge's Redemption with Caddy and Selene watching to cover. We've got a SH Sacrament to work on.

Velvet has important things to do and holding the Bureau's hoof is frankly a lower priority. Especially given how we went for quality for the Bureau and did most of their work for them already.

If Velvet wants to hold the Bureau's hoof she could just send Biedde.

 

[Venerable Ro]

The big difference between Bureau and Eclipse is that unlike them, we are there. If it takes so long to process info within Bureau then for it to go across to Eclipse will take even longer. Long enough for us to arrive and take charge. Long enough to tell Celestia about it. She will take it seriously and we can let her take care of it.

I suppose now we have a choice to either give the warning and let Celestia decide or not give it and try to take care of it ourselves.

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And we are easily capable of taking care of it ourselves, throw a RoT at them and then send Biedde to go clean them up. And by clean them up I mean kill them off.

Honestly, I really don't think the windigos are in Manehatten, considering what we got from Mareinette. That was an extremely high threshold she blew through to "find movable assets", call it an assumption but if the jars were there to be evacuated she would have found them or more accurately she would have been informed of them. "several of the cult's precious items" wouldn't warrant an entire cart unless they were, bulky.

[Finding moveable assets]

[Auto-success due to Jade's scrying - third threshold]

[From chaos, opportunities, breakpoints 60/80/100/120/150]

[Roll: 85 75 + 40 (Old and Terrible) + 30 (Grail total 6) + 20 ("Context" final breakpoint) = 175]

[Last breakpoint reached]

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You also report to her that Mareinette… performed well. You do not like that creature, and you do not want to be thankful for her. But still, according to the monster, she "rallied" the panicked cultists and "organized" them into collecting several of the cult's precious items before fleeing, so they could be "evacuated". The mare-thing then hauled the cart back here herself, and stored it in the cellar she calls her home.

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[Bakkasama]

As I see it, the most simple way to interpret this is

We tell about the Windigos and the Bureau belives it: Our detectives push for us to find this weapons of mass destruction
Smoking gun: Celestia pushes for us to hunt them.

They are the options for if we want the Bureau to actively hunt cultists.

 

[Venerable Ro]

They are the options for if we want the Bureau to actively hunt cultists.

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But we don't have any cultists to hunt? Copper's lot are already scattered, may well get swept up by our Bureau considering how completely we disrupted them mid-evacuation. The remnants of the original cult are still in Ponyville (along with Soft's Wolf-cult that we canonically have no knowledge of) where we don't want an investigation. And Windy, if he founded a cult, is still a huge question mark that we can't make long-term plans around.

 

[DelightedOne]

We've got a SH Sacrament to work on.

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About that, do you all think we should just switch to Baldomare's now? At this point Velvet's seems like it is not worth the risk.

 

[Paintmaster]

Not go to the dreamlands.

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Telling a government department something with the intent for them to not engage with it is a bad idea, because they are going to do the exact opposite. The Bureau's mandate is to kick over metaphorical and literal rocks to see what's under them, Eclipse is even worse in that they deliberately investigate unknown. If they find evidence pointing them to a threat in the Dreamlands, a threat that could arguably be tied to Luna, they are going to investigate it. Regardless of how many warnings we put in that evidence.

Fourth option is of course nobody taking the warning seriously and one or more jars being found in Manehatten, in which case we'd be utterly at the mercy of the dice.

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...To play devils advocate besides the obvious is this actually a problem or to our disadvantage and worth enough to spend the opportunity on it? Yes the Wendigo's will rampage if they get out, yes people will die, but they can be fought and defeated by non lore means given they are not Names or such. Such an event could almost certainly be used to strengthen the Bureau's political power and position as a new threat appearing from nowhere. In turn we can use the opportunity to give the Bureau something with greater long term value rather than spending all or some of it on the warning.

And yeah its cruel and messed up to suggest that just letting the Wendigo's rampage may be to our advantage, but this is a CS quest as much as it is a MLP one. We have, and are going to continue to have, to make terrible decisions because they are the most beneficial option available.

 

[Venerable Ro]

About that, do you all think we should just switch to Baldomare's now? At this point Velvet's seems like it is not worth the risk.

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Yes, I do believe we should. One expedition, one AP really, and we've a Sacrament. We'd have had it ages ago except for the waffling.

 

[Greymere]

But we don't have any cultists to hunt? Copper's lot are already scattered, may well get swept up by our Bureau considering how completely we disrupted them mid-evacuation. The remnants of the original cult are still in Ponyville (along with Soft's Wolf-cult that we canonically have no knowledge of) where we don't want an investigation. And Windy, if he founded a cult, is still a huge question mark that we can't make long-term plans around.

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There's still the entire Inner and Outer Circle. Even if "Copper's cult" as an entity is broken, nothing stops the remnants from coming together under new leadership, or smaller cults fracturing off lead by the former Inner Circle members that presumably exist (or just any sufficiently charismatic and/or ambitious cultist). Letting any splinter cult form means that they will, inevitably, build themselves up to the point where they will become a Threat to us and the Bureau. Better to nip any possibility of that in the bud now, while it's still possible.

 

[Earth-Destroyer]

Lore 1 is a must we need to bureau to start being relevant. Apart from that we must give a warning about the worms.

It very easy to get to the Dreamlands once your past the crossroads, Velvet managed it with Lore values of 1-2. If they don't know to avoid the Worm we will have Worm Hosts on our hands.

 

[Sveta08]

Good morning.
Will be less active today as I don't forsee having to steer the boat.

But!

1. Are the windigo jars an immediate and serious problem?
2. Should we tell the Bureau about the Windigos?

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This is a good format for that discussion. I'll give my piece as clear as I can.

1: Yes. Most seem to be in agreement that the Wendigos are in fact, a threat and a problem. Those who think they can be dealt with by mortal means seem to be ignoring very real statistics. So, yes. A problem.

2: This, is where the most argument seems to come from. Personally, I feel the Bureau should be told. They, themselves, can do very very little about these things. And if they find them, yes. It does create a problem if they believe the warning and find them, because we cannot as easily destroy them then. I am not going to dispute that fact.

Ideally, we wouldn't have to tell them. Because there are functionally four cases.
1: Warned and Finds Jars : How do we get rid of Wendigos Problem?
2: Warned and Finds No Jars : Where did they go Problem?
3: Not Warned and Finds Jars : Worst case Scenario, could be released Downtown
4: Not Warned and Finds No Jars : Best Case Scenario , can be hunted silently

These are the end solutions I see for warning or not warning about them. And, if we warn and the warning isn't believed, well, we're pretty well on the not warned path.


The issue is, I don't want to gamble double or nothing here. Not warning them has the opportunity for things to go perfectlu for us, so we can solve it on the down low. But it also has the chance for, during the investigation into the near assassins of The Commissioner, The Bureau blunders and releases an ancient evil in downtown Manhattan.
You know what that looks like? That looks like incompetence. That looks like failure. That looks like the best of the best appointed by one of Celestia's Chosen are incompetent. That ponykind is not fit to govern and rule itself and handle it's own affairs. That looks like a rapid advancement of Celestia's "I've had it up to here with you lot"

I, am willing to accept what may be a problem for us to solve later to avoid Celestia getting worse.

 

[BritBiscuit]

Uh sorry if this has already been asked and I missed the answer, but what is stopping the Detectives from realising that we got attacked by Windigos if we tell them about their existance? Like we didn't tell them about it during the debrief and I highly doubt that they would be able to just accept that the frail if intimidating commisioner fought off not just 3 ponies but also a Windigo whilst also being able to hide the bodies on a hill and then make their way back, I mean they would at least expect frostbite or something considering its near impossible to them that we were injured by ponies but avoided all contact with a mythical monster that specifically preyed on even the strongest ponies.

 

[Bakkasama]

But we don't have any cultists to hunt? Copper's lot are already scattered, may well get swept up by our Bureau considering how completely we disrupted them mid-evacuation. The remnants of the original cult are still in Ponyville (along with Soft's Wolf-cult that we canonically have no knowledge of) where we don't want an investigation. And Windy, if he founded a cult, is still a huge question mark that we can't make long-term plans around.

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There's still the entire Inner and Outer Circle. Even if "Copper's cult" as an entity is broken, nothing stops the remnants from coming together under new leadership, or smaller cults fracturing off lead by the former Inner Circle members that presumably exist (or just any sufficiently charismatic and/or ambitious cultist). Letting any splinter cult form means that they will, inevitably, build themselves up to the point where they will become a Threat to us and the Bureau. Better to nip any possibility of that in the bud now, while it's still possible.

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Names summoned by our rivals were to act as liutenants that lead their own branches of the cult. So it is likely that there is at least one other cult, one lead by Neighea.


On the other hoof, we need to consider that the original manuscripts that we wrote are likely in possession of the Bureau now, since they took over the building. In which case, we might want to consider planting nothing. It is one thing if they find random ramblings in our hoofwritting, it is another if those are manuals to spooky magic that can be used for terrorism.

 

[Earth-Destroyer]

I think people are really over-blowing the Wendigos they need to be in a group to be an actual threat Celestia won't just teleport in and vaporize instantly. And Copper was smart enough to assign a pony that knows how to care for the jars, to oversee them for the base move.

They will either keep the maintenance going, or they will do the put the jars on trains to different parts of Equestira to separate them, and prevent them being a problem.

 

[BritBiscuit]

Looking over the streamlined votes I think I might still follow my plan so ill put a draft here so I can copy paste with the check marks later and also give another argument for it.

[] Plan Mental Health and No Dreamlands for little ponies
- [] [LORE-ZERO] You only planted some very vague, but educative, information about the Lores. (No specific Lores shared, counts as "one" evidence)
- [] [MOTH-ADMITTING] You planted the smoking gun, that was used to strike Princess Luna. (Share "The Path Through NIghtmares", AND a claim it was used against Luna. Counts as "one" evidence)
- [] [WORMS] Of course it sounds like the raving of a madpony. You felt like tearing your mane out just by writing it. Because why is nopony else worried about this?! (Share knowledge about the Worms, as unlikely as it is to be believed. Counts as "one" evidence)

So here are my arguments for each piece of this.

Lore Zero: Enough to get them started and at least one of these ponies likely has enough of a Lantern affinity as a Detective to get obsessive enough to actually find proof of Lore powers for the rest of the Bureau to believe.

Moth Admitting: Lets us seem like we are making progress on the hunt for Luna's attackers as Celestia likely will have gotten impatient at some point with just Changeling hunts, it also makes us seem less likely to have been part of the attack on Luna if we were attacked by the same people who attacked her.
We are also likely going to get a Celestia confrontation/stealth encounter at some point in the future and with her currently being lantern 0/1 this is likely the safest one we could get as we don't currently have any Lore levels, this would allow us the benefits of this plan but also allow us to see how the stealth mechanics work for lying to Celestia.

The only issue I see with drawing Celestia's gaze is if the Bureau is not loyal enough to realise that giving the notable more unstable and angry Celestia our Manifests (even if we could argue that it wasn't actual written by us or it was and they stole it) is a bad idea however after our past few turns getting loyalty up I at least expect that the ones who found it will pass them to Shining and then we would have a private meeting with the Bureau before they bring it to the Princess. However considering our nonexistant Lores currently Celestia should be able to see that we wouldn't be able to have written those manuscripts without feeling like their knowledge due to her being Lantern, it might be possible to convince her that it was a changeling within the Cult that attacked Luna with our face due to the fact that until recently we were a nobody who never went outside, the changeling could use our face to join a cult to plot against Equestria/Luna, this would possible give us some protection in case of Windy ratting our involvement out in future.

Worms: I feel this would synergise with the Moth-Admitting to show the threat of the Worms as it would
A: Show where they could have got the knowledge of the Worms via seeing the birth of Nightmare Moon in the Path through Nightmares as I feel like due to our knowledge of the previous Cults workings where those who saw it through were higher up than those who hadn't seen the Worms, it is not a stretch that Velvet would plant this evidence via a fabricated journal entry of someone describing the events as they are proud to have witnessed it.
and
B: The circumstances of Nightmare Moon being Worm possession rather than Celestia's Neglect would sooth some of the 1000 year trauma of being a bad sister, possibly making her better at fighting Daybreaker as she would be in a slightly better headspace. It might make her calmer in future, it might make her ban any exploration of the Dreamlands if she knows that there are a endless tide of beings that can overpower and possess an Alicorn within them, this would make it unlikely Eclipse or any other institution gets Worm'd through exploring without knowledge much like how we nearly were on our first forays into the dreamlands, they would be searching for Luna there like we did, and encounter Worms like we did except they wouldn't have the Moth to avoid them so whoops bad end...

And this is still a draft as I am waiting for an OurLadyofWires response to Shaper's proposal of a Worm-NightmareMoon vote to use rather than just using the Moth-admitting and Worm votes.
Actually @OurLadyOfWires would my votes have the effect of revealing the birth of Nightmare Moon or would it need a vote like?

@OurLadyOfWires

-[] [WORMS + NIGHTMARE MOON] Of course it sounds like the raving of a madpony. You felt like tearing your mane out just by writing it. Because why is nopony else worried about this?! Including of course the dark secret of what Nightmare Moon really was!!! (Share knowledge about the Worms along with their possession of Luna to form Nightmare Moon, as unlikely as it is to be believed. Counts as "two" evidence)

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[Sveta08]

Moth Admitting

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I...

Luna said she will speak and learn to help with Celestia. That she would come to us to help and assist when and where she can.
I would give her that. And would not step in her way.

 

[spiderhellian]

but what is stopping the Detectives from realising that we got attacked by Windigos if we tell them about their existance? Like we didn't tell them about it during the debrief and I highly doubt that they would be able to just accept that the frail if intimidating commisioner fought off not just 3 ponies but also a Windigo whilst also being able to hide the bodies on a hill and then make their way back, I mean they would at least expect frostbite or something considering its near impossible to them that we were injured by ponies but avoided all contact with a mythical monster that specifically preyed on even the strongest ponies.

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Yeah this is totally valid.

I think it's the biggest issue with revealing Windigos. We have a plausible story that the Bureau buys, we are intentionally blowing that up.

 

[Sveta08]

I think it's the biggest issue with revealing Windigos. We have a plausible story that the Bureau buys, we are intentionally blowing that up.

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You think they buy it?

They accept it because Velvet is near dead and she is all but demanding that story be the one spread. But they don't buy it.
They asked her. Explicitly! They are going to want a real answer. It is our choice whether we tell them some or all of the truth, or demand secrecy.

They are accepting of the lie we have given, because they feel it is the best for an image that Equestria needs. But they don't believe it.

 

[spiderhellian]

You think they buy it?

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Yes, they know there were more assailants, and understand that Velvet wanted to play it down. Maybe they'll follow up on it, maybe not.

But they DEFINITELY think the snow magic was her's. Reproach, and the autopsy, make that very clear.

So what if the snow magic wasn't used to stop the crooks… what if it wasn't before, or during… but after…?"

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Plus she is a unicorn. And if she had the magic to summon something as harrowing as this still-frozen ice

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Something she had frozen

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Consistent with the report that "ice magic" was used, as the penetrating needles could have been icicles

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[BritBiscuit]

I...

Luna said she will speak and learn to help with Celestia. That she would come to us to help and assist when and where she can.
I would give her that. And would not step in her way.

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Here is a quote

"Second, I… I want to stay a secret. For now, at least. I don't mean total secrecy or anything like that. But I don't want Equestria to know this happened. Most of all, I don't what my sister to know this happened. Celestia, that is. So, ponykind as a whole can't know, because that knowledge would certainly reach her. And if she learns I am back, she… well, I want to take care of my sister's current condition at my own pace, and in my own way."

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Now I might be misreading/misinterpreting this but to me this reads as she doesn't want Celestia to know she is back as Selene, she wants us to promise we won't say she is back so she can decide when and how to reveal herself and how to help Celestia, I don't think that we are entirely banned from interacting/giving info to Celestia that might help her and I don't entirely believe that talking about the Origins of Nightmare Moon and relieving her trauma of being a bad sister counts as attempting to deal with Daybreaker/help her current condition as its not actively targeting Daybreaker with like a ritual or something its just sharing knowledge that might make her feel more emotionally stable.

In addition in the Vote reset threadmark we can see

You had... several ideas. Most of them bad. Well, according to yourself, all of them were bad.

But thankfully, Selene was there with you. And she not only managed to organize your confused thoughts, but she also gave you several good suggestions.

Truly, she is the best adopted-alicorn-daughter you have.

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Seluna was there to help us pick out the planted evidence and say what is a good or bad idea, whilst you could make an arguement of her not wanting to go against her Mother you could equally go for an arguement that says that she suggested telling her about what happened, so I don't think we are denying Luna or stepping in her way however this is just my opinion and you are valid in having your own.

 

[Sveta08]

Seluna was there to help us pick out the planted evidence and say what is a good or bad idea, whilst you could make an arguement of her not wanting to go against her Mother you could equally go for an arguement that says that she suggested telling her about what happened, so I don't think we are denying Luna or stepping in her way

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True on all counts and.... Gegh.

I don't like it, because it feels perilously. But I agree.

But yes, they DEFINITELY think the snow magic was her's. Reproach, and the autopsy, make that very clear.

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Yes, they do.
But they also have no idea what to make of the exsanguineated corpses. Or the missing bits. Or what spell or how she cast it. They believe she did it, yes. But they are going to ask, or at the least want, a more full report. I would bet on that. And not providing one?

What do you think that's going to do to them? That we don't trust them with the truth? The people we have and have set up to seek the truth, the dark secrets and evils of the world? They will want to know, even if nothing else, so they know what to look for!

They think she did it, but the pieces don't quite fit. They won't. We are going to have to tell them something.